Divisive: The next Balearics election

The opinion poll which shows a slump in support for the Partido Popular in the Balearics will come as little surprise. Indeed, it would be a surprise had there not been a fall in support.

As the poll indicates that the PP would lose its clear majority and only have 28 deputies after the next election, opposition parties will doubtless claim that the government of José Ramón Bauzá isn't working. But the opposition, PSOE (PSIB) in particular, is in no position to talk about a party not working. The main opposition party, its poll rating finds it stuck where it was at the last election - on the end of a good kicking. Poorly led, only fit to criticise, lacking any agenda or future vision, the party is a rabble. Yet, it should be doing far better, given that the government has staggered from one embarrassment to the next, that its educational policy is a pig's ear of unnecessarily confrontational dogma, its tax policy arrived at on the hoof, its so-called ethics being dragged through the mud of new corruption cases, its negotiations with Madrid over funding lamentable.

The PP isn't, therefore, in bad polling shape. One can be critical of certain austerity policies, such as health, but the Balearics health service was so much in debt there was no obvious alternative to taking the scalpel. Bauzá will be hoping that there will be some bounce in the economy over the next couple of years. He will hope this, but the hope remains remote.

As things stand, were the current polling to translate into performance at the 2015 election, the PP would be left in the uncomfortable position of having to form a coalition. Unless the PP were to do the unthinkable and form a pact with PSOE or the PSM socialists, it would have only two options for a partner, and neither would be attractive to either side.  

The poll gives two seats to both the UPyD and El Pi, the merged La Lliga and Convergència. El Pi, rather like the old Unió Mallorquina, from which the Convergència emerged, might assume its former role of governmental kingmakers in that the UM was typically dragged into coalitions. But there would be two big snags. One comes in the form of its leader, Jaume Font, a former PP minister and no friend of Bauzá's. The second lies with its attitudes towards regionalism and Catalan. While some of its policies would be along similar political lines to the PP, these two would not be. Were it to become a coalition partner with a PP under the current leadership, it would be an example of blatant and opportunistic power-grabbing, and one would wonder how long such a coalition could hold together.

The UPyD, a party with no baggage from the past, the great white hope of a new and cleaner politics, and one with a centrist and market-liberal doctrine, would find it hard to ally with the PP which it has criticised for its acts of favouritism. The UPyD leadership would know that it could set itself back and do itself enormous damage by getting into bed with the PP. I couldn't see it happening.

Much can of course occur between now and 2015. The PP nationally may even have scrapped regional governments by then, though to do so would require ripping up the Constitution, so it is most unlikely that it will have. One thing that might happen is that the PP locally does not improve its poll rating or even slips, while, for example, El Pi makes a gain. One cannot completely rule out pressure for change at the head of the PP, and this pressure might grow under such a scenario. A change that would potentially solve a coalition problem would involve Antoni Pastor being brought back into the PP fold and into a senior position. Would it happen? Probably not, but were it to, then Font wouldn't find himself as compromised.

The 2015 election threatens to create enormous uncertainty, and there is a further issue to bear in mind. I have previously suggested that 2015 could be the Ramon Llull election. The 700th anniversary of his death is, though there is a big question mark as to its accuracy, given as 29 June 1315, so not long after the election. If this anniversary is made much of in 2015, and it will be, even if it has to be in 2016, then the regionalist and Catalan issues will be even more to the fore than they might otherwise be. The next election could prove to be highly divisive for the Balearics. Far more than at present.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.


Index for December 2012

Beach wars - 1 December 2012
Brand Spain: Marca España - 22 December 2012
Business development - 14 December 2012
Business environmental tax - 13 December 2012
Christmas and the Mallorcans - 21 December 2012
Corporate tax evasion - 6 December 2012
Education law reform - 9 December 2012
Election in 2015 in the Balearics - 31 December 2012
Expat numbers and voting in the Balearics - 12 December 2012
Families and favouritism - 30 December 2012
Fomento del Turismo awards - 7 December 2012
Gerardo Díaz Ferrán and Marsans - 5 December 2012
Ghost of Manacor - 20 December 2012
GOB - 4 December 2012
Jazz in Spain - 11 December 2012
Knowledge of Mallorca - 8 December 2012
Language and nationalism - 15 December 2012
Letter from Mallorca 1912 - 24 December 2012
Mallorca quiz of the year - 26 December 2012
Obra Cultural Balear awards - 16 December 2012
Palacio de Congresos: returns - 19 December 2012
Pantomime - 3 December 2012
Sandcastles - 2 December 2012
Sky TV changes in Mallorca - 23 December 2012
Spain and its problems - 27 December 2012
Spanish educational reform and language - 9 December 2012
Spanish navel-gazing - 10 December 2012
Speed limits and driving - 17 December 2012
Tracy Island and Mallorca - 28 December 2012
Trafico: changing a driving licence - 29 December 2012
Travel fairs - 18 December 2012
Twelve Days Of Christmas for Mallorca - 25 December 2012