Showing posts with label Coalitions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Coalitions. Show all posts

Friday, August 05, 2016

Mayors Who May Not Be Mayors

Here's a conundrum. Why is it that mayors may not be mayors? Is it because they are not allowed to be? How can that be, if they are already mayors? The question's illogical. Ah but, what if mayors may not be mayors because, despite appearances which indicate that they are, in reality they aren't? Does that clarify things? Tell you what, let's have an example.

It is the Partido Popular's Marga Duran who has let the cat out of the bag. She isn't a mayor, though she would have liked to have been. She lost out in Palma because the three-way alliance (?) between PSOE, Més and the Podemos Palma branch (Som Palma) blocked her way. As such, it might be expected that she would be less than glowing in her praise of the mayor who denied her the opportunity. So is it all sour grapes? One rather suspects that it isn't. In fact, one pretty much knows that it isn't. The cat left the bag long ago and has been been stroked benignly and smilingly ever since. By whom? By a mayor who may not be a mayor. José Hila, the mayor of Palma.

There's the title right enough, but otherwise ... ? Marga confirmed, if confirmation were required, the reality. In essence, Hila performs an honorary role. He appears when it is necessary for him to appear, smiles nicely, tells everyone that there's consensus and dialogue and then disappears to his honorary office. He may appear to be the mayor but he isn't. In Marga's damning words, he carries no authority. Instead, his town hall is governed by three factions, one of them his own - PSOE - from which some mutterings have emanated regarding his effectiveness. They have not been expressed loudly but they rumble lowly nevertheless in the seventeenth-century corridors of the old town hall.

Which is a bit of a shame. Hila seems to be a perfectly pleasant and decent bloke. One might disagree with some of his politics, but what's there to dislike? Smartly turned out, a ready smile, always there to offer supportive words. Perfect. But if all he's doing is performing an honorary function, then you would hope for all of this.

Is it really his fault? Up to a point it is. He was after all party to the three-party alliance of which he and PSOE are a part. The question mark following alliance above indicates that this alliance (aka pact) is not all that it may appear or wish to appear. Hila is thus a hostage to the misfortunes of PSOE in needing to establish pacts. Without them, they wouldn't be setting foot in the corridors of power, be they those of the town hall, regional government or the Council of Mallorca.

PSOE can generally only operate in alliance. It's been like this for some time in Mallorca, but until recently the dice were loaded in its favour. Since the elections last year, the dice have rolled differently. Where PSOE ostensibly lead, there are powers behind the thrones. Leaders, e.g. Hila, are therefore relegated to honorary roles. Grace and favour, bestowed on them by those who wield the real power, not because those others gained more votes but because without them PSOE would be nowhere.

President Armengol is similarly a hostage to misfortune. Her honorary function isn't, however, quite as tenuous as Hila's (not yet anyway). The mayor was only ever half a mayor anyway. Under the deal with Més and Som Palma, he'll be stepping aside next year. By August 2017 he will no longer be mayor. He's already, therefore, on his way out, though it is questionable whether he's ever been in. He will be succeeded by Antoni Noguera of Més. So sure was he of the prize that awaits him, that he was given (or more likely gave himself) the grand responsibility for the "model of the city". Blimey, it doesn't get more mayoral (in-waiting or already in practice) than that. He has the whole city in his hands. Unlike Hila.

Pacts, coalitions, alliances - call them what you like - can only work if there genuinely is consensus and not a stream of consciousness which seeks to confirm that there is. What one gets is what one has in Palma and the regional government. (The Council of Mallorca is rather different and that's largely due to Miquel Ensenyat.) Marga Duran is correct in referring to the "three governments" in Palma, the three parties each with their own domains, pursuing their own agendas. Oh, they'll say otherwise, and not just Hila, but is anyone really convinced?

Armengol, meanwhile, appears so in thrall to the model she presides over that she is wishing it on Pedro Sánchez, PSOE nationally and therefore Spain. But it is for appearance. She would hardly say anything else, given that she was taken hostage by Més and Podemos. Presidents as well as mayors may not be presidents.

Monday, May 11, 2015

Lessons From Andalusia

On 22 March, Andalusia held its regional election. It had been caller because of a breakdown in the coalition government led by Susana Díaz of PSOE. The election returned PSOE as the most voted for party, with the same number of seats that it had obtained at the previous election, and while most post-electon analysis concentrated on the relative polling of different parties and what this might mean for elections elsewhere, such as here in the Balearics in under two weeks time, there was another aspect which may well have greater relevance to the Balearics. Although PSOE "won" the election, it failed to gain a majority, just as it had at the previous election. But unlike at that election, in March there was no obvious coalition candidate to come to PSOE's aid, and there still isn't. Consequently, Díaz said that she would govern with a minority. However, it isn't quite as simple as this (if forming a minority government can be described as simple). There is the matter of what other deputies in parliament think, and on Friday, they offered their thoughts. En bloc they voted against her investiture as president: in effect, Andalusia is currently without a government.

The parliament will hold another vote on Thursday. There may well be further votes but if, by the middle of July, Diáz has still not received support (or abstentions) that will enable her investiture, a new election will have to be called: those are the rules. Both Podemos and Ciudadanos have indicated a willingness to consider a pact - and the number of seats each has would be sufficient to create a majority - but there are strings attached. A fundamental principle of these two parties is their anti-corruption stance, and both have made it clear that a condition would be the removal of a former president, Manuel Chaves, from the national Congress of Deputies: he, as with Díaz's predecessor, is implicated in the enormous ERE (redundancy) scandal in Andalusia.

As things stand, Chaves will be on his way out after the Spanish general election in any event. Getting him to stand down now would, though, be symbolic: an act of commitment by PSOE to make a stand against corruption, alleged or otherwise. As this hasn't happened, neither Podemos nor Ciudadanos (C's) can accept entering into a coalition with Díaz.

The Chaves affair is just one way in which what is happening in Andalusia is similar to the Balearics. Here, the likelihood is that President Bauzá's Partido Popular will fall quite some way short of a majority on 24 May. With the support of the C's, it might just be possible that it could get a coalition majority, but the C's leader in the Balearics, Xavier Pericay, has ruled out a pact with any party unless the C's wins the most votes at the election (which it won't). Nevertheless, Pericay has said that the C's might be willing to give parliamentary support without entering a formal coalition, but there is one very big string attached. Pericay is making a similar demand to the one in Andalusia regarding Chaves. He wants Bauzá to get rid of José María Rodríguez as president of the PP in Palma because of his association with corruption.

Whether this happens or not, the outcome of the Balearic election is likely to give the same sort of situation as there is in Andalusia, except that the PP is the ruling party and not PSOE. Bauzá would gain the most votes and seats, but he would have no coalition partner, while PSOE may not be able to form a coalition majority as an alternative. It has been mooted that Bauzá might look to form a minority government, but what would happen if he tried to? Díaz is finding it difficult, and so would Bauzá. Opposition parties in the Balearics will be looking at what is happening in Andalusia with keen interest and they might well, in the event that Bauzá tries to govern in minority, simply block his investiture. So, a further election this year might have to be held, but there is another factor which has entered the equation: it is now being openly talked about the PP getting rid of Bauzá.

The word is that senior figures in the PP would, if the party fails to gain at least 25 seats (and the polls suggest that it would not), call an extraordinary congress and elect a new leader. This still might not allow a presidential investiture to go ahead if a minority government was contemplated, but it would be more likely. Alternatives, including the current mayor of Palma, Mateo Isern, are being spoken about, and he would surely have no problem with ousting Rodríguez.

Polls aren't of course always right, but if they are, then there will be great uncertainty after 24 May, and Andalusia might just give a clue as to how uncertain things will be.

Monday, December 31, 2012

Divisive: The next Balearics election

The opinion poll which shows a slump in support for the Partido Popular in the Balearics will come as little surprise. Indeed, it would be a surprise had there not been a fall in support.

As the poll indicates that the PP would lose its clear majority and only have 28 deputies after the next election, opposition parties will doubtless claim that the government of José Ramón Bauzá isn't working. But the opposition, PSOE (PSIB) in particular, is in no position to talk about a party not working. The main opposition party, its poll rating finds it stuck where it was at the last election - on the end of a good kicking. Poorly led, only fit to criticise, lacking any agenda or future vision, the party is a rabble. Yet, it should be doing far better, given that the government has staggered from one embarrassment to the next, that its educational policy is a pig's ear of unnecessarily confrontational dogma, its tax policy arrived at on the hoof, its so-called ethics being dragged through the mud of new corruption cases, its negotiations with Madrid over funding lamentable.

The PP isn't, therefore, in bad polling shape. One can be critical of certain austerity policies, such as health, but the Balearics health service was so much in debt there was no obvious alternative to taking the scalpel. Bauzá will be hoping that there will be some bounce in the economy over the next couple of years. He will hope this, but the hope remains remote.

As things stand, were the current polling to translate into performance at the 2015 election, the PP would be left in the uncomfortable position of having to form a coalition. Unless the PP were to do the unthinkable and form a pact with PSOE or the PSM socialists, it would have only two options for a partner, and neither would be attractive to either side.  

The poll gives two seats to both the UPyD and El Pi, the merged La Lliga and Convergència. El Pi, rather like the old Unió Mallorquina, from which the Convergència emerged, might assume its former role of governmental kingmakers in that the UM was typically dragged into coalitions. But there would be two big snags. One comes in the form of its leader, Jaume Font, a former PP minister and no friend of Bauzá's. The second lies with its attitudes towards regionalism and Catalan. While some of its policies would be along similar political lines to the PP, these two would not be. Were it to become a coalition partner with a PP under the current leadership, it would be an example of blatant and opportunistic power-grabbing, and one would wonder how long such a coalition could hold together.

The UPyD, a party with no baggage from the past, the great white hope of a new and cleaner politics, and one with a centrist and market-liberal doctrine, would find it hard to ally with the PP which it has criticised for its acts of favouritism. The UPyD leadership would know that it could set itself back and do itself enormous damage by getting into bed with the PP. I couldn't see it happening.

Much can of course occur between now and 2015. The PP nationally may even have scrapped regional governments by then, though to do so would require ripping up the Constitution, so it is most unlikely that it will have. One thing that might happen is that the PP locally does not improve its poll rating or even slips, while, for example, El Pi makes a gain. One cannot completely rule out pressure for change at the head of the PP, and this pressure might grow under such a scenario. A change that would potentially solve a coalition problem would involve Antoni Pastor being brought back into the PP fold and into a senior position. Would it happen? Probably not, but were it to, then Font wouldn't find himself as compromised.

The 2015 election threatens to create enormous uncertainty, and there is a further issue to bear in mind. I have previously suggested that 2015 could be the Ramon Llull election. The 700th anniversary of his death is, though there is a big question mark as to its accuracy, given as 29 June 1315, so not long after the election. If this anniversary is made much of in 2015, and it will be, even if it has to be in 2016, then the regionalist and Catalan issues will be even more to the fore than they might otherwise be. The next election could prove to be highly divisive for the Balearics. Far more than at present.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.


Index for December 2012

Beach wars - 1 December 2012
Brand Spain: Marca España - 22 December 2012
Business development - 14 December 2012
Business environmental tax - 13 December 2012
Christmas and the Mallorcans - 21 December 2012
Corporate tax evasion - 6 December 2012
Education law reform - 9 December 2012
Election in 2015 in the Balearics - 31 December 2012
Expat numbers and voting in the Balearics - 12 December 2012
Families and favouritism - 30 December 2012
Fomento del Turismo awards - 7 December 2012
Gerardo Díaz Ferrán and Marsans - 5 December 2012
Ghost of Manacor - 20 December 2012
GOB - 4 December 2012
Jazz in Spain - 11 December 2012
Knowledge of Mallorca - 8 December 2012
Language and nationalism - 15 December 2012
Letter from Mallorca 1912 - 24 December 2012
Mallorca quiz of the year - 26 December 2012
Obra Cultural Balear awards - 16 December 2012
Palacio de Congresos: returns - 19 December 2012
Pantomime - 3 December 2012
Sandcastles - 2 December 2012
Sky TV changes in Mallorca - 23 December 2012
Spain and its problems - 27 December 2012
Spanish educational reform and language - 9 December 2012
Spanish navel-gazing - 10 December 2012
Speed limits and driving - 17 December 2012
Tracy Island and Mallorca - 28 December 2012
Trafico: changing a driving licence - 29 December 2012
Travel fairs - 18 December 2012
Twelve Days Of Christmas for Mallorca - 25 December 2012

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

MALLORCA TODAY - Convergència joins Santa Margalida administration

The three councillors of the Convergència (CxI) in Santa Margalida will, after all, join with the six of the Suma pel Canvi in order to give mayor Miguel Cifre sufficient numbers to form a working majority at the town hall.

Friday, May 27, 2011

Carme Chameleon: Alcúdia's coalitions

While there are many town halls whose administration, post-election, is clearcut, there are plenty where it is not. One, as mentioned previously, is Alcúdia.

The Partido Popular and its would-be mayor, Coloma Terrasa, have eight councillors, one short of a majority of nine. There are nine other councillors, split among the Convergència and PSOE (four apiece) and the PSM (Mallorcan socialists) with one.

It is the final one on this list, the PSM, which is the most interesting, as the party potentially holds the key to the future administration in the town and, if it were to prove to be so, would be evidence as to how bizarre Mallorca's politics can be. Bizarre and opportunistic.

The PSM is everything the PP is not. It is left-wing, nationalist (i.e. veering towards independence), Catalanist, and as green as a party can be without actually calling itself green. The twain of the PSM and the PP should never meet, except in darkened alleys when they encounter each other for an ideological punch-up, but the twain could yet meet in the corridors of Alcúdia town hall power.

The sole councillor that the PSM now has, Carme Garcia, is the first councillor the party has had in Alcúdia. Time to show some muscle, it would appear; time to be shown some respect. The PSM across the island has done fairly well out of the elections. Not that it fared any better at regional parliament level than it did in 2007. It has the same number of seats and its percentage of the vote went down fractionally. Yet, it can claim to now being the third force in the island.

A reason for this was the collapse of the Convergència. While it maintains pockets of resistance in town halls, such as Alcúdia, generally it has been consigned to the political dustbin, taking with it its own nationalism of the right. The PSM is now the third force and now the main voice for Mallorcan aspirations.

It is against this background that Garcia has said that she would consider an agreement with the PP whereby an alliance would create the nine councillors required. It would be the most unholy of alliances. More than this, it would be a complete sell-out of political credibility. Not of course that this stops parties combining with others when they have their eye on the main chance; think Liberal Democrats, for example. But a tie-up between the PP and the PSM would be utterly absurd.

Garcia, though she says that she would be capable of being mayor, doesn't have the brassneck to suggest that a pact with the PP would mean that she should be mayor. Thank heavens for such humility. The people of Alcúdia might have granted the PSM the opportunity of town hall representation, but there should be some context in all of this.

The PP obtained almost 40% of the vote. The Convergència and PSOE were virtually identical - in the low 20s. The PSM got just over 6% from a turnout of 55%, which is its own story as it was by far the lowest among the five largest northern municipalities. I don't know how many people this equates to, but from a population of some 19,000 and bearing in mind how many might actually be on the electoral census, an estimate might be around 300.

On any moral grounds, the PP's right to administer the town hall and Coloma Terrasa's right to be mayor should be givens. But they are not. The Convergència and PSOE formed the previous coalition. They might yet do so again, if Garcia could be persuaded. Such a scenario says much about the proportional system and much also about how local town politics are not always about political ideology. In the case of the PP and the PSM, they most certainly are, but the Convergència and PSOE are different.

Though ostensibly of the right and the left, they are chummy. This chumminess can be a virtue, and it worked well enough for most of the last administration, but it can equally be seen as being divisive, especially if it denies the PP its place in the town hall sun.

I make no bones. I don't much care for the PP, but the electoral system can be held open to ridicule. The PP deserves to be installed, but there would be no thing more ridiculous than for it to be installed with the aid of the PSM.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.