Lessons From Andalusia

On 22 March, Andalusia held its regional election. It had been caller because of a breakdown in the coalition government led by Susana Díaz of PSOE. The election returned PSOE as the most voted for party, with the same number of seats that it had obtained at the previous election, and while most post-electon analysis concentrated on the relative polling of different parties and what this might mean for elections elsewhere, such as here in the Balearics in under two weeks time, there was another aspect which may well have greater relevance to the Balearics. Although PSOE "won" the election, it failed to gain a majority, just as it had at the previous election. But unlike at that election, in March there was no obvious coalition candidate to come to PSOE's aid, and there still isn't. Consequently, Díaz said that she would govern with a minority. However, it isn't quite as simple as this (if forming a minority government can be described as simple). There is the matter of what other deputies in parliament think, and on Friday, they offered their thoughts. En bloc they voted against her investiture as president: in effect, Andalusia is currently without a government.

The parliament will hold another vote on Thursday. There may well be further votes but if, by the middle of July, Diáz has still not received support (or abstentions) that will enable her investiture, a new election will have to be called: those are the rules. Both Podemos and Ciudadanos have indicated a willingness to consider a pact - and the number of seats each has would be sufficient to create a majority - but there are strings attached. A fundamental principle of these two parties is their anti-corruption stance, and both have made it clear that a condition would be the removal of a former president, Manuel Chaves, from the national Congress of Deputies: he, as with Díaz's predecessor, is implicated in the enormous ERE (redundancy) scandal in Andalusia.

As things stand, Chaves will be on his way out after the Spanish general election in any event. Getting him to stand down now would, though, be symbolic: an act of commitment by PSOE to make a stand against corruption, alleged or otherwise. As this hasn't happened, neither Podemos nor Ciudadanos (C's) can accept entering into a coalition with Díaz.

The Chaves affair is just one way in which what is happening in Andalusia is similar to the Balearics. Here, the likelihood is that President Bauzá's Partido Popular will fall quite some way short of a majority on 24 May. With the support of the C's, it might just be possible that it could get a coalition majority, but the C's leader in the Balearics, Xavier Pericay, has ruled out a pact with any party unless the C's wins the most votes at the election (which it won't). Nevertheless, Pericay has said that the C's might be willing to give parliamentary support without entering a formal coalition, but there is one very big string attached. Pericay is making a similar demand to the one in Andalusia regarding Chaves. He wants Bauzá to get rid of José María Rodríguez as president of the PP in Palma because of his association with corruption.

Whether this happens or not, the outcome of the Balearic election is likely to give the same sort of situation as there is in Andalusia, except that the PP is the ruling party and not PSOE. Bauzá would gain the most votes and seats, but he would have no coalition partner, while PSOE may not be able to form a coalition majority as an alternative. It has been mooted that Bauzá might look to form a minority government, but what would happen if he tried to? Díaz is finding it difficult, and so would Bauzá. Opposition parties in the Balearics will be looking at what is happening in Andalusia with keen interest and they might well, in the event that Bauzá tries to govern in minority, simply block his investiture. So, a further election this year might have to be held, but there is another factor which has entered the equation: it is now being openly talked about the PP getting rid of Bauzá.

The word is that senior figures in the PP would, if the party fails to gain at least 25 seats (and the polls suggest that it would not), call an extraordinary congress and elect a new leader. This still might not allow a presidential investiture to go ahead if a minority government was contemplated, but it would be more likely. Alternatives, including the current mayor of Palma, Mateo Isern, are being spoken about, and he would surely have no problem with ousting Rodríguez.

Polls aren't of course always right, but if they are, then there will be great uncertainty after 24 May, and Andalusia might just give a clue as to how uncertain things will be.