Starting with the obvious caveat that polls aren't always accurate, the one conducted by the Balearic Institute of Social Studies for voting intentions in Palma does make for interesting reading.
Palma town hall has twenty-nine councillors. The election in 2015 returned the following: nine Partido Popular; six PSOE; five Més; five Podemos; four Ciudadanos (C's). The ruling administration at the town hall therefore changed from one with a PP majority to what there is now - a pact between PSOE, Més and Podemos. In order to form a majority, there need to be fifteen councillors. The pact was able to deliver this plus one.
The poll by the institute asked about voting intentions were there to be an election now - the actual election isn't until May 2019. It found increased support for the PP, PSOE, the C's and for El Pi, who don't currently have a councillor. Més and Podemos, on the other hand, saw their support drop. The maths of this poll indicate that the pact could continue, despite the loss of one councillor by both Més and Podemos. One more for PSOE would push the total to fifteen, just scraping a majority.
An alternative conclusion, thanks to the workings of the D'Hondt method of allocating seats under proportional representation, is that the Partido Popular and Ciudadanos might both gain one seat and El Pi might win one. Were that to be the case, then a three-way coalition of the centre-right could replace the current pact.
The institute has also conducted a poll for voting intentions for the Council of Mallorca, where the pact mirrors that of Palma town hall. And the findings of the poll pretty much mirror the Palma poll. Més and Podemos are both down by one seat; PSOE may gain one; the C's are up (possibly by two); El Pi, which have representation at the Council, remain the same, as do the PP. If the poll is accurate, then PSOE would need to gain in order for the pact to survive. There are 33 seats at the Council of Mallorca, of which PSOE, Més and Podemos currently have eighteen. It is possible they could miss establishing a majority by one, while a combination of the PP, C's and El Pi would have a majority.
In June there was a mid-term poll for the Balearic parliament. While Podemos isn't formally part of the government, its seats are what put PSOE and Més into government in 2015. The June poll suggests that the pact wouldn't survive, with Més and Podemos both losing two seats and PSOE losing one. For the centre-right, there were gains for the C's and El Pi; the PP stayed where they are with twenty seats.
What these polls all indicate is that the next elections are going to be very difficult to call. They show a general ebbing away of support for Més and Podemos, but perhaps most significantly they do not reveal any sign of a recovery by the PP. An assumption that some have been making - an erroneous one in my view, and backed up by these polls - is that the PP will just walk back into power in 2019. This is what happened in 2003 and 2011 after the previous PSOE-led governments, but at present it would appear that the PP would need to rely on D'Hondt falling favourably for them and the C's and El Pi being prepared to make pacts.
It's revealing to look back and see what opinion polling was like at the mid-term of the Bauzá PP government. There was a very different picture. The PP had lost six to seven seats, meaning they were below the majority of thirty. It was to get much worse for the PP. They lost fifteen seats at the election itself, and they are now - according to the opinion poll - stuck on that twenty.
So, two years can make a difference - positively, negatively or even through the unexpected. When that mid-term poll in 2013 was carried out, Podemos weren't around. In the space of two years they emerged from nowhere to get ten seats in the Balearic parliament.
There won't be a repeat of the surprise package in 2019, so will there be anything to disrupt the patterns revealed by these polls? One factor that I have highlighted previously is the new deal for Balearic financing. If it comes through and is favourable, the electorate may look upon it with favour as well, though it would be more of a PSOE achievement than one of Més (or Podemos).
As for the PP, they are going to have do something pretty remarkable over the next eighteen months or so, and with Biel Company showing little evidence of being a dynamic leader, I'm far from convinced that they will improve their position to any significant extent.
Showing posts with label Opinion polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Opinion polls. Show all posts
Thursday, October 26, 2017
Tuesday, November 04, 2014
The First Force In Spain: Podemos
Last week the Mallorcan hoteliers' federation, taking stock of a political situation in which the Partido Popular appears destined to be thrown out of regional government next May, recognised the performance of Podemos in opinion polls but doubted that this performance would be matched when it came to the "moment of truth" at the ballot box. The hoteliers may now be wondering if they have underestimated the appeal of Podemos. The moment of truth probably will be different, but the way things are going that moment of truth might prove to be worse than the hoteliers imagine.
The opinion poll by Metroscopia, published in "El País" on Saturday was startling. Podemos headed the poll. As far as the survey is concerned, Podemos is no longer the suddenly-on-the-scene third force in Spain, it is the leading force. The shockwaves will not only be being felt at PP and PSOE headquarters, they will be reverberating, or should be, throughout Spanish society. If momentum were to continue and to translate into meaningful results at regional and national levels, there will be an earthquake that rips apart the dominance of two-party politics. It is no longer advisable to believe that Podemos will blow itself out. There has to be a realisation that it might just bring about the impossible.
The poll does only give Podemos a slight lead (27.7% ahead of PSOE with 26.2%), but that poll rating is up a massive 17 points since August. In the same period, the PP has fallen by almost 12% and PSOE, despite its new leadership, has also declined - by 5.5%. This was a poll taken after the latest corruption scandal erupted. It was to have been expected that the PP would take a hit because of this, but there has now to be a serious question asked of the PP, and that is whether the damage will endure and prove to be terminal. It might well do.
Mariano Rajoy, grovelling apology and all, has vowed that there will be no hiding place for the newly corrupt that Operación Púnica has unearthed, but Rajoy has too little credibility in this regard. He is too tainted himself, if only by unsubstantiated implication. Pedro Sánchez, the leader of PSOE, has ruled out some form of grand anti-corruption pact with the PP. He is right to do so. He needs to put as much distance between PSOE and the PP as he can. The pact that former PSOE leader, Alfredo Rubalcaba, signed up to - one intended to "regenerate" democracy - has been broken, and it had to be, as it looked like too much of a cosying up together by the two main parties. Podemos has shattered notions of rapprochement between the PP and PSOE.
Solace for the PP and PSOE can be taken from the fact that the electorate remains far from convinced that Podemos has realistic policies, but despite this misgiving, elections next year may well be dominated by narratives to do with the nature of the political system and of Spanish society at the expense of the detail of policy. The two-party system, exposed as inherently corrupt, is one aspect of this, another is the set of societal attitudes. One of the gravest errors that the Rajoy government has made has been to misjudge the Spanish public. From the reforms of the socialist administrations of Felipe González to those of Zapatero - the Aznar PP interregnum notwithstanding - this is a society that has shifted firmly towards a form of liberalism which the PP cannot grasp but has had to bow to, most notably with the decision to abort the abortion reform. The hammering that PSOE took in 2011 was all to do with the economy and not Zapatero's social liberalism. Podemos has tapped into this, and it is this liberalism which goes a long way to explaining why economic crisis produced a protest party of the left and not of the right.
On top of this there is all the corruption. The electorate may indeed care about the detail of economic management, of taxes, of republicanism, of ambivalence towards Brussels, but it may care more about punishing the endlessly corrupt. And Podemos has one foot firmly on the throat of corruption and another on the throttle that is intent on driving it out. On its Facebook page it has posted an organigram of the family networks connected to the town hall of Valdemoro in Madrid, the one right at the centre of Púnica. It is staggering but in no way surprising. It reveals just how nepotism, favouritism and "amiguismo" attach themselves to the political system and leech off it. These networks are the breeding ground for corruption, just as they were in Mallorca with the old Unió Mallorquina, and are with so many other cases. It is this which has to end.
The opinion poll by Metroscopia, published in "El País" on Saturday was startling. Podemos headed the poll. As far as the survey is concerned, Podemos is no longer the suddenly-on-the-scene third force in Spain, it is the leading force. The shockwaves will not only be being felt at PP and PSOE headquarters, they will be reverberating, or should be, throughout Spanish society. If momentum were to continue and to translate into meaningful results at regional and national levels, there will be an earthquake that rips apart the dominance of two-party politics. It is no longer advisable to believe that Podemos will blow itself out. There has to be a realisation that it might just bring about the impossible.
The poll does only give Podemos a slight lead (27.7% ahead of PSOE with 26.2%), but that poll rating is up a massive 17 points since August. In the same period, the PP has fallen by almost 12% and PSOE, despite its new leadership, has also declined - by 5.5%. This was a poll taken after the latest corruption scandal erupted. It was to have been expected that the PP would take a hit because of this, but there has now to be a serious question asked of the PP, and that is whether the damage will endure and prove to be terminal. It might well do.
Mariano Rajoy, grovelling apology and all, has vowed that there will be no hiding place for the newly corrupt that Operación Púnica has unearthed, but Rajoy has too little credibility in this regard. He is too tainted himself, if only by unsubstantiated implication. Pedro Sánchez, the leader of PSOE, has ruled out some form of grand anti-corruption pact with the PP. He is right to do so. He needs to put as much distance between PSOE and the PP as he can. The pact that former PSOE leader, Alfredo Rubalcaba, signed up to - one intended to "regenerate" democracy - has been broken, and it had to be, as it looked like too much of a cosying up together by the two main parties. Podemos has shattered notions of rapprochement between the PP and PSOE.
Solace for the PP and PSOE can be taken from the fact that the electorate remains far from convinced that Podemos has realistic policies, but despite this misgiving, elections next year may well be dominated by narratives to do with the nature of the political system and of Spanish society at the expense of the detail of policy. The two-party system, exposed as inherently corrupt, is one aspect of this, another is the set of societal attitudes. One of the gravest errors that the Rajoy government has made has been to misjudge the Spanish public. From the reforms of the socialist administrations of Felipe González to those of Zapatero - the Aznar PP interregnum notwithstanding - this is a society that has shifted firmly towards a form of liberalism which the PP cannot grasp but has had to bow to, most notably with the decision to abort the abortion reform. The hammering that PSOE took in 2011 was all to do with the economy and not Zapatero's social liberalism. Podemos has tapped into this, and it is this liberalism which goes a long way to explaining why economic crisis produced a protest party of the left and not of the right.
On top of this there is all the corruption. The electorate may indeed care about the detail of economic management, of taxes, of republicanism, of ambivalence towards Brussels, but it may care more about punishing the endlessly corrupt. And Podemos has one foot firmly on the throat of corruption and another on the throttle that is intent on driving it out. On its Facebook page it has posted an organigram of the family networks connected to the town hall of Valdemoro in Madrid, the one right at the centre of Púnica. It is staggering but in no way surprising. It reveals just how nepotism, favouritism and "amiguismo" attach themselves to the political system and leech off it. These networks are the breeding ground for corruption, just as they were in Mallorca with the old Unió Mallorquina, and are with so many other cases. It is this which has to end.
Monday, October 06, 2014
We Can Collapse Governments
Two opinion polls were published at the weekend. They were opinion polls that would have wrecked any hopes that Mariano Rajoy or José Ramón Bauzá would have had for a nice, pleasant Sunday. The Partido Popular both nationally and in the Balearics are heading for the exits next year.
The poll by the Balearics Institute for Social Studies on behalf of "Ultima Hora" confirms previous recent surveys which suggest that in May next year the PP would lose eight seats in the Balearic parliament. Down to 27 from the current 35, it would lose its overall majority (30 seats are needed for a majority). Its percentage of the vote would slip by around 9% and though this would still make it the most voted-for party (37%), it would be unable to form a government without the support of other parties, and it would be most unlikely to attract sufficient support, if any.
A startling aspect of this poll is not so much the losses that the PP would suffer but those that PSOE would experience. The main opposition party, it stands to lose three seats (or two if one takes a Formentera coalition branch to be a shoo-in). The even more startling aspect is the party which would be taking seats from both of them - Podemos ("we can"). It might win as many as ten seats. Win not gain, because of course there was no Podemos at the last election.
It might have been possible to have dismissed Podemos's performance at the European elections earlier this year as a one-off kicking for the main parties. In which case that would have been to have underestimated Podemos. It has come from nowhere but it isn't about to suddenly disappear. It holds the key to the elections next year.
In the Balearics the opinion poll gives the PP little or no hope of finding coalition partners. El Pi, the party which emerged from the discredited and defunct Unió Mallorquina, might get one seat. The UPyD also might get one seat, but for it to ally with the PP, despite its centrist tendencies, would go against much of its reason for being, which was to challenge the two main parties.
And this, the challenge to the main parties, is one of the key reasons why Podemos came into existence. It is populist in a way that is far removed from the UPyD; about as far removed as its political agenda. But it, as with the UPyD, has to face the reality of what it has created. If it is to serve any purpose as a political organisation, it has to be prepared to work with the main parties, which almost certainly wouldn't mean the PP. Therefore, it only has one option - PSOE. If there were to be a coalition between PSOE and Podemos, it would be a coalition which would be expected to bring along the Més leftist grouping as well. Between them, they would just about scrape together a majority.
In terms of government, Podemos is a totally unknown quantity. As such, therefore, its very popularity brings with it an enormous amount of uncertainty. It is not used to the games of government; indeed, it is these very games that it rejects. What happens or might happen if it were to enter a coalition, in which it would get some top positions by virtue of its number of seats, but then discovers that it has disagreements?
There has to be a real danger that a coalition could be thrown into chaos or could collapse. We will discover over the next weeks and months just how much common ground Francina Armengol of PSOE can find with the Balearics wing of Podemos, assuming she can find any. But the attitude of Podemos and its supporters towards PSOE can be seen in the findings of the Metroscopia poll that was published in "El País". They are overwhelmingly negative with regard to PSOE's new national leader, Pedro Sánchez.
And if there might be chaos in the Balearics, what about nationally? The decline in support for the PP has crumbled, according to the Metroscopia poll. PSOE's support is about the same as it was in 2011. Podemos, on the other hand, has a level of support not far behind that of the PP. This is not a poll which estimates how the vote might go nationally but it is a survey which indicates where sentiment lies, and it is sentiment which could yet create as uncertain a pattern in national government as it could in the Balearics.
Rajoy, with some better news about the economy and with the promise of tax-giveaways, has more time than Bauzá in the Balearics to potentially turn things around. Bauzá has nothing to give away, only himself. The Balearics PP might conceivably hold on next spring, if and only if there was a different leader.
The poll by the Balearics Institute for Social Studies on behalf of "Ultima Hora" confirms previous recent surveys which suggest that in May next year the PP would lose eight seats in the Balearic parliament. Down to 27 from the current 35, it would lose its overall majority (30 seats are needed for a majority). Its percentage of the vote would slip by around 9% and though this would still make it the most voted-for party (37%), it would be unable to form a government without the support of other parties, and it would be most unlikely to attract sufficient support, if any.
A startling aspect of this poll is not so much the losses that the PP would suffer but those that PSOE would experience. The main opposition party, it stands to lose three seats (or two if one takes a Formentera coalition branch to be a shoo-in). The even more startling aspect is the party which would be taking seats from both of them - Podemos ("we can"). It might win as many as ten seats. Win not gain, because of course there was no Podemos at the last election.
It might have been possible to have dismissed Podemos's performance at the European elections earlier this year as a one-off kicking for the main parties. In which case that would have been to have underestimated Podemos. It has come from nowhere but it isn't about to suddenly disappear. It holds the key to the elections next year.
In the Balearics the opinion poll gives the PP little or no hope of finding coalition partners. El Pi, the party which emerged from the discredited and defunct Unió Mallorquina, might get one seat. The UPyD also might get one seat, but for it to ally with the PP, despite its centrist tendencies, would go against much of its reason for being, which was to challenge the two main parties.
And this, the challenge to the main parties, is one of the key reasons why Podemos came into existence. It is populist in a way that is far removed from the UPyD; about as far removed as its political agenda. But it, as with the UPyD, has to face the reality of what it has created. If it is to serve any purpose as a political organisation, it has to be prepared to work with the main parties, which almost certainly wouldn't mean the PP. Therefore, it only has one option - PSOE. If there were to be a coalition between PSOE and Podemos, it would be a coalition which would be expected to bring along the Més leftist grouping as well. Between them, they would just about scrape together a majority.
In terms of government, Podemos is a totally unknown quantity. As such, therefore, its very popularity brings with it an enormous amount of uncertainty. It is not used to the games of government; indeed, it is these very games that it rejects. What happens or might happen if it were to enter a coalition, in which it would get some top positions by virtue of its number of seats, but then discovers that it has disagreements?
There has to be a real danger that a coalition could be thrown into chaos or could collapse. We will discover over the next weeks and months just how much common ground Francina Armengol of PSOE can find with the Balearics wing of Podemos, assuming she can find any. But the attitude of Podemos and its supporters towards PSOE can be seen in the findings of the Metroscopia poll that was published in "El País". They are overwhelmingly negative with regard to PSOE's new national leader, Pedro Sánchez.
And if there might be chaos in the Balearics, what about nationally? The decline in support for the PP has crumbled, according to the Metroscopia poll. PSOE's support is about the same as it was in 2011. Podemos, on the other hand, has a level of support not far behind that of the PP. This is not a poll which estimates how the vote might go nationally but it is a survey which indicates where sentiment lies, and it is sentiment which could yet create as uncertain a pattern in national government as it could in the Balearics.
Rajoy, with some better news about the economy and with the promise of tax-giveaways, has more time than Bauzá in the Balearics to potentially turn things around. Bauzá has nothing to give away, only himself. The Balearics PP might conceivably hold on next spring, if and only if there was a different leader.
Monday, December 31, 2012
Divisive: The next Balearics election
The opinion poll which shows a slump in support for the Partido Popular in the Balearics will come as little surprise. Indeed, it would be a surprise had there not been a fall in support.
As the poll indicates that the PP would lose its clear majority and only have 28 deputies after the next election, opposition parties will doubtless claim that the government of José Ramón Bauzá isn't working. But the opposition, PSOE (PSIB) in particular, is in no position to talk about a party not working. The main opposition party, its poll rating finds it stuck where it was at the last election - on the end of a good kicking. Poorly led, only fit to criticise, lacking any agenda or future vision, the party is a rabble. Yet, it should be doing far better, given that the government has staggered from one embarrassment to the next, that its educational policy is a pig's ear of unnecessarily confrontational dogma, its tax policy arrived at on the hoof, its so-called ethics being dragged through the mud of new corruption cases, its negotiations with Madrid over funding lamentable.
The PP isn't, therefore, in bad polling shape. One can be critical of certain austerity policies, such as health, but the Balearics health service was so much in debt there was no obvious alternative to taking the scalpel. Bauzá will be hoping that there will be some bounce in the economy over the next couple of years. He will hope this, but the hope remains remote.
As things stand, were the current polling to translate into performance at the 2015 election, the PP would be left in the uncomfortable position of having to form a coalition. Unless the PP were to do the unthinkable and form a pact with PSOE or the PSM socialists, it would have only two options for a partner, and neither would be attractive to either side.
The poll gives two seats to both the UPyD and El Pi, the merged La Lliga and Convergència. El Pi, rather like the old Unió Mallorquina, from which the Convergència emerged, might assume its former role of governmental kingmakers in that the UM was typically dragged into coalitions. But there would be two big snags. One comes in the form of its leader, Jaume Font, a former PP minister and no friend of Bauzá's. The second lies with its attitudes towards regionalism and Catalan. While some of its policies would be along similar political lines to the PP, these two would not be. Were it to become a coalition partner with a PP under the current leadership, it would be an example of blatant and opportunistic power-grabbing, and one would wonder how long such a coalition could hold together.
The UPyD, a party with no baggage from the past, the great white hope of a new and cleaner politics, and one with a centrist and market-liberal doctrine, would find it hard to ally with the PP which it has criticised for its acts of favouritism. The UPyD leadership would know that it could set itself back and do itself enormous damage by getting into bed with the PP. I couldn't see it happening.
Much can of course occur between now and 2015. The PP nationally may even have scrapped regional governments by then, though to do so would require ripping up the Constitution, so it is most unlikely that it will have. One thing that might happen is that the PP locally does not improve its poll rating or even slips, while, for example, El Pi makes a gain. One cannot completely rule out pressure for change at the head of the PP, and this pressure might grow under such a scenario. A change that would potentially solve a coalition problem would involve Antoni Pastor being brought back into the PP fold and into a senior position. Would it happen? Probably not, but were it to, then Font wouldn't find himself as compromised.
The 2015 election threatens to create enormous uncertainty, and there is a further issue to bear in mind. I have previously suggested that 2015 could be the Ramon Llull election. The 700th anniversary of his death is, though there is a big question mark as to its accuracy, given as 29 June 1315, so not long after the election. If this anniversary is made much of in 2015, and it will be, even if it has to be in 2016, then the regionalist and Catalan issues will be even more to the fore than they might otherwise be. The next election could prove to be highly divisive for the Balearics. Far more than at present.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Index for December 2012
Beach wars - 1 December 2012
Brand Spain: Marca España - 22 December 2012
Business development - 14 December 2012
Business environmental tax - 13 December 2012
Christmas and the Mallorcans - 21 December 2012
Corporate tax evasion - 6 December 2012
Education law reform - 9 December 2012
Election in 2015 in the Balearics - 31 December 2012
Expat numbers and voting in the Balearics - 12 December 2012
Families and favouritism - 30 December 2012
Fomento del Turismo awards - 7 December 2012
Gerardo Díaz Ferrán and Marsans - 5 December 2012
Ghost of Manacor - 20 December 2012
GOB - 4 December 2012
Jazz in Spain - 11 December 2012
Knowledge of Mallorca - 8 December 2012
Language and nationalism - 15 December 2012
Letter from Mallorca 1912 - 24 December 2012
Mallorca quiz of the year - 26 December 2012
Obra Cultural Balear awards - 16 December 2012
Palacio de Congresos: returns - 19 December 2012
Pantomime - 3 December 2012
Sandcastles - 2 December 2012
Sky TV changes in Mallorca - 23 December 2012
Spain and its problems - 27 December 2012
Spanish educational reform and language - 9 December 2012
Spanish navel-gazing - 10 December 2012
Speed limits and driving - 17 December 2012
Tracy Island and Mallorca - 28 December 2012
Trafico: changing a driving licence - 29 December 2012
Travel fairs - 18 December 2012
Twelve Days Of Christmas for Mallorca - 25 December 2012
As the poll indicates that the PP would lose its clear majority and only have 28 deputies after the next election, opposition parties will doubtless claim that the government of José Ramón Bauzá isn't working. But the opposition, PSOE (PSIB) in particular, is in no position to talk about a party not working. The main opposition party, its poll rating finds it stuck where it was at the last election - on the end of a good kicking. Poorly led, only fit to criticise, lacking any agenda or future vision, the party is a rabble. Yet, it should be doing far better, given that the government has staggered from one embarrassment to the next, that its educational policy is a pig's ear of unnecessarily confrontational dogma, its tax policy arrived at on the hoof, its so-called ethics being dragged through the mud of new corruption cases, its negotiations with Madrid over funding lamentable.
The PP isn't, therefore, in bad polling shape. One can be critical of certain austerity policies, such as health, but the Balearics health service was so much in debt there was no obvious alternative to taking the scalpel. Bauzá will be hoping that there will be some bounce in the economy over the next couple of years. He will hope this, but the hope remains remote.
As things stand, were the current polling to translate into performance at the 2015 election, the PP would be left in the uncomfortable position of having to form a coalition. Unless the PP were to do the unthinkable and form a pact with PSOE or the PSM socialists, it would have only two options for a partner, and neither would be attractive to either side.
The poll gives two seats to both the UPyD and El Pi, the merged La Lliga and Convergència. El Pi, rather like the old Unió Mallorquina, from which the Convergència emerged, might assume its former role of governmental kingmakers in that the UM was typically dragged into coalitions. But there would be two big snags. One comes in the form of its leader, Jaume Font, a former PP minister and no friend of Bauzá's. The second lies with its attitudes towards regionalism and Catalan. While some of its policies would be along similar political lines to the PP, these two would not be. Were it to become a coalition partner with a PP under the current leadership, it would be an example of blatant and opportunistic power-grabbing, and one would wonder how long such a coalition could hold together.
The UPyD, a party with no baggage from the past, the great white hope of a new and cleaner politics, and one with a centrist and market-liberal doctrine, would find it hard to ally with the PP which it has criticised for its acts of favouritism. The UPyD leadership would know that it could set itself back and do itself enormous damage by getting into bed with the PP. I couldn't see it happening.
Much can of course occur between now and 2015. The PP nationally may even have scrapped regional governments by then, though to do so would require ripping up the Constitution, so it is most unlikely that it will have. One thing that might happen is that the PP locally does not improve its poll rating or even slips, while, for example, El Pi makes a gain. One cannot completely rule out pressure for change at the head of the PP, and this pressure might grow under such a scenario. A change that would potentially solve a coalition problem would involve Antoni Pastor being brought back into the PP fold and into a senior position. Would it happen? Probably not, but were it to, then Font wouldn't find himself as compromised.
The 2015 election threatens to create enormous uncertainty, and there is a further issue to bear in mind. I have previously suggested that 2015 could be the Ramon Llull election. The 700th anniversary of his death is, though there is a big question mark as to its accuracy, given as 29 June 1315, so not long after the election. If this anniversary is made much of in 2015, and it will be, even if it has to be in 2016, then the regionalist and Catalan issues will be even more to the fore than they might otherwise be. The next election could prove to be highly divisive for the Balearics. Far more than at present.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Index for December 2012
Beach wars - 1 December 2012
Brand Spain: Marca España - 22 December 2012
Business development - 14 December 2012
Business environmental tax - 13 December 2012
Christmas and the Mallorcans - 21 December 2012
Corporate tax evasion - 6 December 2012
Education law reform - 9 December 2012
Election in 2015 in the Balearics - 31 December 2012
Expat numbers and voting in the Balearics - 12 December 2012
Families and favouritism - 30 December 2012
Fomento del Turismo awards - 7 December 2012
Gerardo Díaz Ferrán and Marsans - 5 December 2012
Ghost of Manacor - 20 December 2012
GOB - 4 December 2012
Jazz in Spain - 11 December 2012
Knowledge of Mallorca - 8 December 2012
Language and nationalism - 15 December 2012
Letter from Mallorca 1912 - 24 December 2012
Mallorca quiz of the year - 26 December 2012
Obra Cultural Balear awards - 16 December 2012
Palacio de Congresos: returns - 19 December 2012
Pantomime - 3 December 2012
Sandcastles - 2 December 2012
Sky TV changes in Mallorca - 23 December 2012
Spain and its problems - 27 December 2012
Spanish educational reform and language - 9 December 2012
Spanish navel-gazing - 10 December 2012
Speed limits and driving - 17 December 2012
Tracy Island and Mallorca - 28 December 2012
Trafico: changing a driving licence - 29 December 2012
Travel fairs - 18 December 2012
Twelve Days Of Christmas for Mallorca - 25 December 2012
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
A Year In Politics: the Balearic Government
It is rare for any governing political party in whatever country to celebrate its first year in office by registering a ringing endorsement in the opinion polls. The Balearics Partido Popular, a year into office, has received just such a non-endorsement, and it will come as no great surprise. When a party is faced with the sort of problems the PP were faced with when it came back into power last June, whatever it does is unlikely to go down well with all those who had previously supported it; such is the nature of politics.
Support may have fallen, but it hasn't fallen that much. A poll for "Ultima Hora" revealed that the PP would lose two deputies in the Balearic parliament were there to be an election now. This loss would still give the party a majority and an ability to govern on its own and without needing to seek a coalition.
It is the fact that support hasn't ebbed away more drastically which may come as a surprise rather than the fact that there has been a decline. This suggests that the government, as far as much of the electorate is concerned, is doing a decent enough job. Possibly. But as relevant as the fall in support for the government is a similar fall in support for the main opposition party, PSOE (or PSIB to give it its Balearic title). It would find itself minus one of its deputies were there to be an election now.
On the face of it, given the sorts of measures that the government has been forced into taking and which are bound to be unpopular with some, the main opposition should be performing better. This, though, doesn't necessarily follow when a political party suffers from being as discredited as PSOE-PSIB was and when, in the aftermath of an electoral hammering, it gives the impression of remaining in a state of some disarray. One only has to think of the British Conservative Party following its annihilation by Blair to know that defeated parties do not always immediately bounce back.
Yet, current economic circumstances are very different to the benign days towards the end of the last century. The opposition should be doing better, but PSOE took an eternity to sort out its new leadership and even with a new leader, Francina Armengol, has made precious little impression or shown any genuine opposition. It's all well and good Francina saying that the Balearics have a "bad government" and that "a change in direction" is needed, but no one is taking much notice of her. Altogether more effective in making its voice heard in opposition to the government has been the nationalist element, specifically the PSM Mallorcan socialists, and the opinion polls suggest that notice has been taken of the nationalists; their ratings have gone up.
This increase in support may be a reflection of all the language and Catalan carry-on. However, the Catalan kerfuffle and the Pastor palaver, were they really that important, would surely have seen support for the PP diminish more. Maybe the Catalan and regionalist issue is being overstated or maybe the electorate is simply more interested in other matters, such as the economy, and despite little obvious improvement since the election, the electorate would probably trust the PP more than PSOE or any other party.
Armengol has criticised the government for not being self-critical and President Bauzá for being more interested in his private business affairs than the interests of the people of the Balearics. Neither criticism stands up to scrutiny. Bauzá has said that the government does need to do better, if only in the way it communicates what it is doing, while his business affairs are a diversion; he may have failed to declare them but they don't seem to be of an order that might compromise him.
Bauzá's own rating has slipped, but with the exception of one minister, Biel Company, he of the environment, transport, agriculture mega-ministry, so have the ratings of all his ministers. One might have been tempted to put Company's positive rating down to the fact that he wasn't actually a member of the PP. He now is, though perhaps his taking of the PP pledge has yet to register with the electorate.
One of the greatest ministerial victims in terms of ratings has been Rafael Bosch, the education minister. He has had to preside over education cuts and the free selection of language debacle, but in addition he is the government spokesperson. Don't shoot the messenger and all that, but Bosch is a further victim of the system of communication; he's the oily rag when it should be the engineer (Bauzá) doing the communicating. The same problem exists at national government level where Rajoy is all but invisible.
A year after forming the new government, the PP can, however, feel reasonably satisfied. But the satisfaction comes not so much from its efforts, more from others' lack of effort.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Support may have fallen, but it hasn't fallen that much. A poll for "Ultima Hora" revealed that the PP would lose two deputies in the Balearic parliament were there to be an election now. This loss would still give the party a majority and an ability to govern on its own and without needing to seek a coalition.
It is the fact that support hasn't ebbed away more drastically which may come as a surprise rather than the fact that there has been a decline. This suggests that the government, as far as much of the electorate is concerned, is doing a decent enough job. Possibly. But as relevant as the fall in support for the government is a similar fall in support for the main opposition party, PSOE (or PSIB to give it its Balearic title). It would find itself minus one of its deputies were there to be an election now.
On the face of it, given the sorts of measures that the government has been forced into taking and which are bound to be unpopular with some, the main opposition should be performing better. This, though, doesn't necessarily follow when a political party suffers from being as discredited as PSOE-PSIB was and when, in the aftermath of an electoral hammering, it gives the impression of remaining in a state of some disarray. One only has to think of the British Conservative Party following its annihilation by Blair to know that defeated parties do not always immediately bounce back.
Yet, current economic circumstances are very different to the benign days towards the end of the last century. The opposition should be doing better, but PSOE took an eternity to sort out its new leadership and even with a new leader, Francina Armengol, has made precious little impression or shown any genuine opposition. It's all well and good Francina saying that the Balearics have a "bad government" and that "a change in direction" is needed, but no one is taking much notice of her. Altogether more effective in making its voice heard in opposition to the government has been the nationalist element, specifically the PSM Mallorcan socialists, and the opinion polls suggest that notice has been taken of the nationalists; their ratings have gone up.
This increase in support may be a reflection of all the language and Catalan carry-on. However, the Catalan kerfuffle and the Pastor palaver, were they really that important, would surely have seen support for the PP diminish more. Maybe the Catalan and regionalist issue is being overstated or maybe the electorate is simply more interested in other matters, such as the economy, and despite little obvious improvement since the election, the electorate would probably trust the PP more than PSOE or any other party.
Armengol has criticised the government for not being self-critical and President Bauzá for being more interested in his private business affairs than the interests of the people of the Balearics. Neither criticism stands up to scrutiny. Bauzá has said that the government does need to do better, if only in the way it communicates what it is doing, while his business affairs are a diversion; he may have failed to declare them but they don't seem to be of an order that might compromise him.
Bauzá's own rating has slipped, but with the exception of one minister, Biel Company, he of the environment, transport, agriculture mega-ministry, so have the ratings of all his ministers. One might have been tempted to put Company's positive rating down to the fact that he wasn't actually a member of the PP. He now is, though perhaps his taking of the PP pledge has yet to register with the electorate.
One of the greatest ministerial victims in terms of ratings has been Rafael Bosch, the education minister. He has had to preside over education cuts and the free selection of language debacle, but in addition he is the government spokesperson. Don't shoot the messenger and all that, but Bosch is a further victim of the system of communication; he's the oily rag when it should be the engineer (Bauzá) doing the communicating. The same problem exists at national government level where Rajoy is all but invisible.
A year after forming the new government, the PP can, however, feel reasonably satisfied. But the satisfaction comes not so much from its efforts, more from others' lack of effort.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
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