A Year In Politics: the Balearic Government

It is rare for any governing political party in whatever country to celebrate its first year in office by registering a ringing endorsement in the opinion polls. The Balearics Partido Popular, a year into office, has received just such a non-endorsement, and it will come as no great surprise. When a party is faced with the sort of problems the PP were faced with when it came back into power last June, whatever it does is unlikely to go down well with all those who had previously supported it; such is the nature of politics.

Support may have fallen, but it hasn't fallen that much. A poll for "Ultima Hora" revealed that the PP would lose two deputies in the Balearic parliament were there to be an election now. This loss would still give the party a majority and an ability to govern on its own and without needing to seek a coalition.

It is the fact that support hasn't ebbed away more drastically which may come as a surprise rather than the fact that there has been a decline. This suggests that the government, as far as much of the electorate is concerned, is doing a decent enough job. Possibly. But as relevant as the fall in support for the government is a similar fall in support for the main opposition party, PSOE (or PSIB to give it its Balearic title). It would find itself minus one of its deputies were there to be an election now.

On the face of it, given the sorts of measures that the government has been forced into taking and which are bound to be unpopular with some, the main opposition should be performing better. This, though, doesn't necessarily follow when a political party suffers from being as discredited as PSOE-PSIB was and when, in the aftermath of an electoral hammering, it gives the impression of remaining in a state of some disarray. One only has to think of the British Conservative Party following its annihilation by Blair to know that defeated parties do not always immediately bounce back.

Yet, current economic circumstances are very different to the benign days towards the end of the last century. The opposition should be doing better, but PSOE took an eternity to sort out its new leadership and even with a new leader, Francina Armengol, has made precious little impression or shown any genuine opposition. It's all well and good Francina saying that the Balearics have a "bad government" and that "a change in direction" is needed, but no one is taking much notice of her. Altogether more effective in making its voice heard in opposition to the government has been the nationalist element, specifically the PSM Mallorcan socialists, and the opinion polls suggest that notice has been taken of the nationalists; their ratings have gone up.

This increase in support may be a reflection of all the language and Catalan carry-on. However, the Catalan kerfuffle and the Pastor palaver, were they really that important, would surely have seen support for the PP diminish more. Maybe the Catalan and regionalist issue is being overstated or maybe the electorate is simply more interested in other matters, such as the economy, and despite little obvious improvement since the election, the electorate would probably trust the PP more than PSOE or any other party.

Armengol has criticised the government for not being self-critical and President Bauzá for being more interested in his private business affairs than the interests of the people of the Balearics. Neither criticism stands up to scrutiny. Bauzá has said that the government does need to do better, if only in the way it communicates what it is doing, while his business affairs are a diversion; he may have failed to declare them but they don't seem to be of an order that might compromise him.

Bauzá's own rating has slipped, but with the exception of one minister, Biel Company, he of the environment, transport, agriculture mega-ministry, so have the ratings of all his ministers. One might have been tempted to put Company's positive rating down to the fact that he wasn't actually a member of the PP. He now is, though perhaps his taking of the PP pledge has yet to register with the electorate.

One of the greatest ministerial victims in terms of ratings has been Rafael Bosch, the education minister. He has had to preside over education cuts and the free selection of language debacle, but in addition he is the government spokesperson. Don't shoot the messenger and all that, but Bosch is a further victim of the system of communication; he's the oily rag when it should be the engineer (Bauzá) doing the communicating. The same problem exists at national government level where Rajoy is all but invisible.

A year after forming the new government, the PP can, however, feel reasonably satisfied. But the satisfaction comes not so much from its efforts, more from others' lack of effort.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.