Galicia Lessons: The End For Sánchez?

Regional elections in Spain, because they are not all held at the same time, can be viewed as a test of a public opinion about the national government. In Spain at present, however, there is only a national government by default, one that is nine months on from when it should either have been confirmed as re-elected or ousted. Are, in these circumstances, the elections in the Basque Country and Galicia relevant? Do they say anything about the national government?

They most certainly do. More importantly, they say a great deal about the pretenders, one of whom is PSOE; the PSOE that Pedro Sánchez leads. This is not the PSOE of the whole country, however, and the results loosen his grip - already tenuous - ever more. The knives of Andalusia, in the hands of Susana Díaz, are being sharpened on the stone. How long can Sánchez carry on?

Consider the numbers. In Galicia the regional version of PSOE suffered its worst ever result. It ended up with fourteen seats in the regional parliament with slightly less than 18% of the vote in a four-way fight. En Marea, effectively Podemos by another name, also gained fourteen seats but with a higher share of the vote - just over 19%. Both were eclipsed by the Partido Popular. Alberto Núñez Feijóo will continue to govern with an absolute majority.

In the Basque Country, the socialists suffered major losses - seven seats gone, leaving them with nine. The PNV, habitual leaders in the region, have insufficient seats for an overall majority, but could hook up with the PP (or PSOE) and establish a parliamentary majority.

While Feijóo's win in Galicia will be taken as enhancing Mariano Rajoy's moral right to remain as national prime minister, it needs reminding that Galicia is very firm PP territory - and Feijóo territory. The loss of one PP seat in the Basque Country places a rather different spin on things. Perhaps the strongest message to come from the elections, where the PP is concerned, is that Feijóo has strengthened his case for replacing Rajoy.

Rather than a test of public opinion for Rajoy, the elections were a poll on the ambitions of Sánchez and PSOE to attempt to form an "alternative" government of the left. These are surely dashed, if indeed they have ever truly been realistic. Díaz had made it clear that they weren't, given the fact that PSOE have only 85 seats in the national Congress.

A surprise with Sánchez is the fact that he's still in charge. Reflect on the charge sheet. A failed attempt, an awfully failed attempt at investiture, followed by a second election at which PSOE lost more seats in Congress. Yet he still believes he can form a government, seemingly egged on by the likes of Balearic president Francina Armengol into adopting a model of government akin to that in the Balearics - one that quite plainly isn't functioning. Armengol is deluded and so is Sánchez. With the batterings in the Basque Country and Galicia, his time must surely be up.

If this proves to be the case, the PSOE "barons", marshalled by Díaz, will manoeuvre a situation whereby there is a pact with Rajoy and the PP (or possibly with Feijóo and the PP; this may be the price Rajoy has to pay). For Francina Armengol, who must have been observing the results coming in with increasing horror and alarm, such a national manouevre would be terminal. Podemos wouldn't stand for it, while Més seem ever increasingly alienated from Armengol.

If PSOE were the big losers in these two elections, what about Cuidadanos? This party is more and more like an annoying terrier, snapping at the heels of others. It is shooed away but keeps coming back, yapping and yapping but never getting its way. Its leader, Albert Rivera, had been looking at the prospect of a post-election alliance with the PP in Galicia. They failed to gain a single seat. A share of the vote that was little more than three per cent ensured that they would fail, just as they also did in the Basque Country.

What may now dawn on the C's, whose support has been eroding, is that their aspirations to be a national party run up against nationalist interests in specific regions. Even the conservative nationalist instincts in Galicia and the Basque Country appear disinclined to embrace a party which started as a regional Catalonian organisation (with avowed anti-nationalist sentiments) and has attempted to become a national force. Regional parties aren't supposed to behave like this. The C's have got above their station. They are liked less and less. Their time may well have come and gone, leaving Podemos, with its internal divisions, as the genuine "alternative".

Díaz, Feijóo and others will make damn sure it never is.

* This article was written before Sánchez announced that there are to be "primaries" for electing the secretary general, i.e. that he is putting his position to the test.

Mariano In The Clouds

By my calculation and at the rate of one every six months, there will have been a total of eight pointless general elections by the time things get round to what should be the general election to decide the next general election. Confused? You have every right to be. As the current legislature (non-functioning, acting, caretaking, call it what you want) should extend until the end of 2019, there is ample time for them to have had eight elections in all. I can only but hope that this is what transpires. What a fabulous achievement it would be to go through the entire period of a legislature without a result. I feel we should all be cheering them on. Come on fellas (and ladies), you can do it. Do it for Spain. Bravo! Olé! There goes another failed election. Only another five to go.

This is what you get in an era of "new politics" in Spain, characterised by the emergence of a couple of upstarts like Churches and the little C of the C's (respectively Pablo and Albert). The new politics in fact mean no politics; or none that involve actually forming a government that is. As a consequence, Super Mariano can have his wish granted to continue ad infinitum: Honorary Life Prime Minister (President) forever.

I know it would spoil the fun of there being an election every six months, but why doesn't Mazza put a stop to the whole thing by decreeing that all political parties apart from the PP are to be banned? That way there wouldn't need to be the inconvenience of elections. As he's already confirming himself as PM (president) for life, just announce he's going to be a dictator. I mean, it's not as though there haven't been precedents, and Mazza's the only one of the Four Great Leaders who is ancient enough to remember the good old days of political assassination and packing dissidents off to labour camps. Plus, he does of course come from Galicia. And we all know who else came from Galicia.

On balance it's probably unlikely that Super would take such a bold step, meaning - with any luck - that we can indeed have our eight elections to be followed by a ninth with a similar outcome. Mazza, meanwhile, has signalled that there may be some innovation to come with these elections. The next one, he has suggested, could be held on Christmas Day. Why not opt for Christmas Eve and shift the polling booths to churches? There wouldn't be any Podemos sorts voting if they were expected to enter a church that wasn't one of their glorious leader. It would be a PP landslide. Mind you, a Christmas Eve or even a Christmas Day election would cause havoc with the King's address to the nation, to say nothing of his family holidays. Again.

While the royal jollies in Majorca were disrupted because the King was forced to have go through the motions related to the last failed election, someone who was having his own jollies was Mariano. As an alternative to last year's photo opp of swimming in some river in Galicia, Super took himself off to a place called Babia in León. "Here I feel at home," he told reporters. "Being in Babia is one of the things I like most."

Which would be all well and good if it weren't for the fact that the phrase "estar en Babia" is an idiom to mean having one's head in the clouds. So what fantasies was Mazza dreaming up in Babia? Who can possibly tell? Was his arrival in Babia evidence of a divorcing from reality? PSOE's Antonio Pradas insisted that Mariano should get his head out of the clouds forthwith as the little C of the C's had a proposal on the table. It was, by the way, reassuring to note that Pradas didn't have his head in the clouds and was speaking in Benalmadena, so down with the general tourist hordes and avoiding any Irish hitmen who happened to be on the loose.

When Mariano finally re-emerged, Albert's proposal of some form of governmental marriage seemed possible and then not possible. Which has been the story ever since the first election. On it goes. Here's to all those further elections.

The Never-Ending Election

The people of Spain will go to the polls again on 26 June. This date hadn't just been written in the stars. It had been written in the press right from the time that Mariano Rajoy told David Cameron there would be an election three days after the referendum. It had in fact been written as long ago as 20 December. When the results of the general election became known, there was already momentum gathering towards a second election: a momentum born out of the singular inability of the political parties to generate their own momentum towards creating accords of sufficient viability to form a government.

Spain is in uncharted territory, cast adrift in a sea of confusion and disruption. It is proving impossible to reconcile the ambitions and achievements of the two usurpers of political power - Podemos and Ciudadanos - with the baggage and histories of PSOE and the Partido Popular. It is further impossible to reconcile the competing ideologies of these two usurpers. Like unexpected challengers for a Premier League title, they battle it out to see which one emerges the stronger and assumes the crown of victors over the old guard. They both play pressing games at high tempo, pressing their claims with a constant barrage of new political thought but doing so according to competing systems. Podemos is all-out attack on institutions and the wealth of the old guard; Ciudadanos is defensive, minded to not let loose either the institutions of state (such as national unity with Catalonia) or the wealth of the capitalist state.

Where does Spain go from here? Quite possibly to a further election. The June election, if the opinion polls prove accurate, will supply only slight shifts from the pre-Christmas election. The PP might gain a little, Podemos might gain, the C's might push forward. PSOE may well stay where they were or drop back, the dominant alternative to the PP but without dominance: lame and torn between the past and the future. Pedro Sánchez, for all his words, would still rather he didn't need to sit with Podemos around a government table. He blames both Pablo Iglesias and Mariano Rajoy for the impasse. In truth, they are all to blame: ideologies cannot be reconciled. Yet there is the prospect of Podemos and the United Left forming a pact that might result in it being the premier force of the left above PSOE. But let it not be overlooked that there are tensions within Podemos that could undermine such a pact.

Come 26 June and the time to decide, and the outcome will provide a sense of déjà vu. There will be meetings, negotiations, offers and counter-offers, just as there have been since Sánchez failed - to no one's surprise - to garner sufficient support for his investiture in March. But to what end? For Sánchez to accede to Podemos demands would be a capitulation. He has so wedded himself to the pact with Albert Rivera and the C's that making room for Iglesias is pretty much an inherent impossibility. He cannot turn to Rajoy. An accord with the PP would likewise represent a capitulation. His humiliation would be complete. If he remains.

So predictable has the June election become that parties have already been in discussions as to how they will present themselves. The left in the Balearics is edging towards a pact that might see Podemos allying itself with Més and the United and Republican Left. The PP has "ordered" the regional leadership (temporary) to maintain the list of candidates it had in December. Mateo Isern will be number one again, and he will once more end up as a Congress deputy.

Meanwhile, the uncertainties and the inability of Sánchez to arrive at an agreement with Iglesias - a last-minute proposal from the Valencia left-wing Compromis party was met with the sound of the Podemos door being slammed - are causing deep concerns in Palma. President Armengol has been insisting that her government, with Podemos the onlooking determiners of policy, is stable. It now looks less so.

Moreover, if there were still to be no new government of the left after 26 June, then the Balearics would find itself further out on a limb, unable to press for changes that had been hoped for. One of the principal reasons why Biel Barceló and Més finally accepted a pact with Armengol was an understanding on financing from national government, one that Sánchez would deliver. He is no nearer being able to guarantee this than he was on 20 December.

Though the regional government was obviously formed on the basis of the regional and not the national election, a strong, combined showing by Més and Podemos on 26 June would weaken Armengol. Her position may become untenable.

Stability, for all that it is trumpeted, has been lost. Whatever happens on 26 June, the instability will be greater. Uncharted territory indeed.

In Contempt: Parliament and government

The question arises. Or should do. How often has it been asked? And what have been the answers? It needs asking. If there is another general election - probably on 26 June - if the result were much the same as the 20 December election and if there were to be no agreement for government after 26 June, would there be a third election in a further six months time? One would assume that there would be, and that they would carry on having elections until someone finally blinks or they all decide that things have become rather silly. Or maybe they would just carry on and on, elections being held in perpetuity, the Partido Popular remaining in nominal power, Mariano Rajoy being acting premier until the day comes when he keels over.

The question may not have to be put, if they can come up with an agreement. But how can they? If you've lost track of where we are or indeed lost the will to live on account of the never-breaking saga, then here's a reminder as to why they are unable to.

PSOE wants Podemos to back it and the C's. Podemos won't do so. It says no to the C's. They are not "progressive". They are not left-wing. They have no truck with a Catalonia referendum.

The Partido Popular seems prepared to offer Pedro Sánchez the vice-presidency of a coalition government (to include the C's) with Mariano Rajoy remaining number one. PSOE won't accept this. Nor will the C's.

Intractable. That is the problem. Come 2 May, intractable it remains, and there is another election, and all the while the PP and Rajoy are acting. In a semi-permanent state of non-government in which it is now showing contempt. More of this below.

If there is a second election, then the current "pact" between PSOE and the C's would be abandoned. Albert Rivera, the C's leader, has said so. Rivera may be eyeing the polls and seeing his party gaining. Might he therefore contemplate a U-turn and join forces with the PP, which can also point to slight gains (unlike Podemos, which the polls suggest is going backwards)? Never rule anything out, but a U-turn it most certainly would be.

At the last minute, just before the 2 May deadline, might Sánchez and PSOE have a change of heart? Might they say that they have done all they can to bring Podemos into the fold of a "progressive" government. But hard as they have tried, they have been unsuccessful. As a result, and in the interests of the nation (aka citizens), they will agree to a grand coalition with the PP. Never rule anything out, but it would be unlikely, though perhaps less unlikely if Rajoy were to stand aside and let someone else be premier.

Any arrangement that might involve the PP has, though, become even more difficult than it already was. This is because Congress is taking the government (and so the PP) to court. To the Constitutional Court. Why? Because the government, everyone else in Congress says, is in contempt of parliament. Such a contempt charge has never been laid before, but then there has never been a situation as there is at present, with an acting government and an acting premier.

The contempt arises because neither Rajoy nor the defence minister has been prepared to come before Congress to answer questions. The government doesn't need to answer questions and nor should it. The constitution suggests that there can only be questions once a new prime minister has been sworn in, and Rajoy and other ministers are only acting.

It is an extraordinary situation. Rajoy, among other things, has been attending meetings with EU leaders, but he does not have to answer to parliament. At a lesser level of importance, the national finance minister has been talking tough and talking sanctions over the Balearic refusal to amend the deficit - one demanded by a government when it was not acting but now is acting. No wonder the Balearic government has legal services crawling all over the threat. Rajoy and his government maintain that, because of the acting nature of their government, they are answerable to the courts and not parliament itself. Contemptuous? It certainly seems like it.

But might it be said that all the parties and not only the PP are behaving in a contemptuous fashion? Incapable of ironing out differences, stubbornly sticking to the "red lines" which they will not cross, they are bringing the electoral system into contempt. All the while that PSOE fails in brokering a deal, it allows the reviled Rajoy to continue, acting as he apparently seems fit, referring to the courts and not parliament.

The two-party duopoly has been broken, but in its place democracy has created the stasis of contempt: the parties for each other and for the public.

Eddie's Back

Don't say I didn't warn you, but I did. And now there's confirmation. Little and Large are on the comeback trail, Large if not Little, though the latter will doubtless be in the background, doing the manoeuvring, his hand firmly up, erm, Large's jacket.

We had all wondered, feared even, what had happened to the former tourism minister amidst the debacle of the Partido Popular's Maytime meltdown. What had become of Jaime Martínez and his larder? Was Jaime slowly withering away, adopting a belatedly austerity-sympathetic frame to match that of his successor, the ascetic Barceló on his diet of a weekly sopa mallorquín served from one of Xelo Huertas's soup kitchens by royal appointment? Not a bit of it. There he had been all this time, storing prime Mallorcan charcuterie to give him energy for the winter campaign to become PP leader.

The re-emergence of Eddie Large had been predicted, though not quite in this manner. No one had seriously considered him to be a contender, but in bruiser Brando style that is what he wants to be, ably assisted by Syd Little, the man who didn't win the leadership before, Carlos Delgado. Jaime's push for the leadership is that of Syd's in all but name. If he can't be leader himself, and the party made it perfectly clear in 2010 that it didn't want him and so landed itself with Bauzá instead, then get Eddie installed.

Jaime, though, just doesn't cut the dash. Throughout his tenure as Syd's successor at tourism, he would be seen, hovering in the background while Bauzá was taking centre-stage, like a bodyguard who had been plucked from the night-job as a Magalluf bouncer. However, as flag-bearer for the PP righter than centre-right (centre-right, we must of course say), Jaime's prepared to take to the hustings and to launch an assault on the party's regionalist tendency and one that would be amenable to the current government symbolically removing the Catalan flag from the yoke of prohibitive legislation, which it is due to do this coming week by repealing the Law of Symbols.

This regionalist tendency, expected to be led into leadership battle by ex-minister Biel Company, says that Eddie has not complied with party rules for putting himself forward, whatever these rules might be. Regardless of this, he is getting onboard the campaign HGV and heading to the regional congress to be held some time after Rajoy has lost the general election and at which he will probably suffer the same fate as Syd did in 2010: a sound stuffing. The regionalists voted for Bauzá because he wasn't Delgado. Or so they thought. They were wrong, but this time round they won't make the same mistake again and they'll make sure they get their man, and it won't be Jaime.

Someone who won't be putting himself forward for election is hero of the people, Judge Dredd. José Castro, scourge of Matas and Urdangarin, has politely declined an offer from Podemos to be on the list for the general election and so have the opportunity of becoming a member of Congress bearing the cross of the Church of Iglesias. Had Castro agreed - and one feels that the approach was a fanciful publicity stunt by the Spartists - he might have found himself lining up with candidates from Més. However, Biel and his chums have opted not to form an electoral pact with the Podemistas. And quite right, too. If the first one hundred days of government have taught Biel anything, it is that trying to deal with Podemos is as tangled and venomous as grappling with a pit of vipers. It's one thing putting up with this locally, quite another transporting the inherent conflicts to Madrid as well.

Meanwhile, Mariano has given the nation an early Christmas present, the opportunity to eject him from office five days before the festivities. Christmas will be coming a little earlier this year, though given its proximity and in order to guarantee more interest than might actually be the case, did Mariano not consider combining the election with the El Gordo lottery? Conceivably, he would stand greater chance of winning if he left the election to the random choice of numbered balls.

Too Much Uncertainty: Mallorca's tourism industry

The hiatus which occurs in Spain - in its towns and its regions - following elections is unsatisfactory. Stability is the key word that politicians have been uttering for weeks - those from the Partido Popular especially - yet stability is undermined even before the precise make-up of new governments is known (which may in themselves cause greater loss of stability). The hiatus period, the one the tourism industry is currently enduring, is especially damaging, or potentially so. The industry is worried, alarmed even by what type of governments might emerge, but the sooner they know, the better. Meantime, there is rumour, there is speculation, there is heightened anxiety. It's not good for business.

Four years ago of course, the hiatus was not a problem. Most parts of the country, like the Balearics, were looking forward to a Partido Popular government. In the Balearics the industry knew what was coming and it couldn't disguise its delighted expectation. Because of the current uncertainty there are pleas for the industry to be treated kindly, for the gains of the past four years not to be undermined.

Nationally, Joan Molas, the president of CEHAT, the confederation of hoteliers, has stressed the importance of not undoing the recovery that tourism has fuelled. He has also stressed problems that the hotel industry still has: not having regained levels of profitability that were being attained before crisis struck; the emergence of the alternative, "collaborative" economy and its proliferation of illegal lets; the absence of genuine plans to transform "mature" (i.e. outdated) resorts; the need for seasonal incentives, such as reduced social security payments.

On these, he may be right to worry, though not necessarily on the final item - in the Balearics, the left is inclined to introduce such incentives. But the worries, caused by the uncertainty, can lead to wrong conclusions. For example, in Barcelona, where the left-wing Ada Colau looks likely to become mayor, there was talk of her being opposed to the city's continuing the staging of the massive Mobile World Congress. In fact, she has signed a document expressing her support for it to continue to be held in Barcelona.

Nevertheless, with a new contract for the congress to be signed in Singapore next month (a contract from 2018, as Barcelona is still guaranteed it until then), there will be nervousness, as has already been demonstrated: a Meliá project being frozen, as also is one to build a hotel in the city's Deutsche Bank tower; greater urgency in trying to sell off hotels. This concern is being expressed all over the country. In the Balearics, Menorca may arguably be the worst affected island if anticipated projects are halted: the five new resorts planned by the French Zannier group, four of them of a luxury nature, might now not happen. In Mallorca, what might now occur in Playa de Palma? The building of new hotels could still be stopped. The Palacio de Congresos might fall, as in end up being demolished after all: Més had raised the possibility before the election and Més could provide the next mayor of Palma.

In Mallorca, for the moment, we can't be sure how things will turn out. On one issue, the return of the eco-tax, there does seem to be slight disagreement between PSOE, Més and Podemos. At the time of writing, the three parties' representatives had yet to discuss this and to see if it might form part of a parliamentary programme if the three can agree to a coalition. In fact, all three did refer to such a tax in their election manifestos, but for PSOE it was more the case of its being a fallback position if the general financing system for the Balearics is not improved. Neither Més nor Podemos is said to be set on when a tax might actually be introduced, but here is just one item of uncertainty that the election and the hiatus are causing. No one knows for sure about the eco-tax, and even were there to be a three-way PSOE-Més-Podemos government, they still might not know. There will be plenty in the tourism industry who will be praying that PSOE's Francina Armengol is amenable to an approach from the PP to form a coalition (unlikely though this would be).

The Sofa Of All Elections

It was an image of the elections. Not all the pre-voting barbecues, not the landscape littered with posters for parties no one had ever heard of, not José Ramón and fellow PP sorts off for family days out on the "day of reflection", traipsing through the cultural heritage countryside of Mallorca, vice-president "Nipper" Gomez with a man-of-the-people rucksack strapped to his back. Not these. The image was the sofa, the inflatable one belonging to Madrid's mayoral aspirant Esperanza Aguirre. Esperanza - hope, expectation. She went in hope and expectation, blowing up her sofa with a foot pump in the neighbourhoods of the capital. She packed it into a Ryanair hold and transported it to Mallorca. Once more inflated, it was to come to the aid of José Ramón. It didn't. She came, she inflated, he lost. Deflated.

Esperanza will need to try harder. A whole inflatable three-piece with foot rests and coffee table might now be required. She is battling against a new-age Podemos-style sofa, an Ahora Madrid one, not decorated with motifs of Real or Atlético but discreet hammers and sickles (supposedly). You see, the elections may be over but the real election has since begun. The unseemly scramble for coalitions, for retention of or gaining of power - municipal and regional.

Why was Esperanza dragging an inflatable around with her? It was all an attempt to get up close to the people (though in typically Spanish style, the people are rarely referred to; they are the more impersonal "citizens"). Closeness, listening: these were keywords of the elections as much as "stability" was. But things can, if you are not careful, become unstable. If the sofa gets the puncture of electorate rejection, the air is evacuated. Buoyant politics in a PP manner become the sinking feeling of defeat.

The sofa was a late-in-the-day attempt to demonstrate closeness. For years, closeness was of no consequence. But then along came the new lot, with their mantras of participation, their Twitter accounts and online citizen (people) decision-making. Suddenly, the old lot were reminded that there were citizens (people). Blimey, maybe we ought to talk to them. Get up close and personal. Unfortunately, inflatable sofas have been proven not to be the answer, unless the question was -how does a politician make herself appear rather ridiculous? Answer: get an inflatable. What next? Accompanying bouncy castles to keep the kiddies happy while mum and dad are being listened to, close up on the sofa?

But in an act of probably sofa satire, the left have discovered furniture as well. Or they have in Sa Pobla at any rate. Més per Sa Pobla became Sofa per Sa Pobla for a brief time at the weekend. Not that this was an inflatable. Oh no, it was an altogether more rigid affair, an expression of permanence: their hope, their expectation. Where had the sofa come from? Newly acquired from Ikea or maybe hauled out of a nearby skip? Recycled. That will be it. Més are not eco-nationalists for nothing.

The sofa was introduced to the market square on Sunday. As it wasn't right in the market, it probably didn't contravene any licensing regulations regarding market stalls. Not that Més should worry, if they become part of the ruling administration. Everyone will be getting new sofas. The town hall will provide. Perhaps. The sofa's appearance was part of the Més post-election election campaign for government. Improbable though it had seemed, Més wants to ally with PSOE and the Independents and El Pi to form the administration. Anyone but the PP, basically, even if it means an unholy alliance of unlikely bed or rather sofa fellows.

Going to market would mean that the Més message would reach a wide audience - one that includes foreign residents who make habitual trips to the Sa Pobla Sunday market. Not that they matter; they don't vote in any event. No, this was a message for the "poblers". Or might the sofa have been mistaken for an item for sale? Might its occupants have been taken for traders? There, after all, was Antonio Simón Tomás, the Més mayoral candidate, holding up a notice which read 1,141. A bit overpriced, the market visitors would have thought. For a recycled sofa.

This was of course the number of votes that Més had received. "Thank you", the notice also read. 1,141 - 997 fewer than the PP, which received the most votes. 18.7% of the share of the vote - 16.4% lower than the PP's share. How strange it can seem that the system of proportional representation can discount the wishes of 35% of those who bothered to vote. But then, the PP's closeness had only been air - some of it hot. It had been temporary. The Més closeness was more substantial and it was placed in the corner of the people's market.

Arresting Angelic Spanish

Oh my good Lord. "Holy, holy, holy is the Lord of hosts." Where's the Lord when you need Him? Nowhere, it would appear, when the National Police come a-knocking. "We're coming to get you, Seraphim." Not even the fact that Seraphim is the archangel who looks over the police could prevent this. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. And there was worse still. This was the angel of Spanish. Serafín Castellano. Banged up. Corruption. Allegedly. What else would it be?

How terribly ironic that the national government delegate to Valencia (a Partido Popular one) who bears the name of one of the two official languages of Spain - the one that the PP typically has a preference for - should, firstly, be the government delegate in Catalan-variant-speaking Valencia and, secondly, that he should find plod banging on the door waving around a corruption charge only a few days after the regional elections. The ones in which corruption didn't play a part. Or did, depending on which PP apologist was speaking. Rajoy must be spitting feathers. Those of an angel's wings with the name of Castellano-Spanish, to boot. Spanish was under arrest.

Well, did corruption play a part? According to the Balearics PP government spokesperson Nuria Riera, it didn't. It was all the fault of errors in communication. Which was something of an admission for the PP spokesperson to make. It was all her fault then. But Nuria was holding her hands up - not as the police were waving guns in her direction - but in confessing that there would now be a need for "self-criticism": the same self-criticism that was going to be applied after the stuffing at the Euro elections last year but which wasn't.

What a wretched week last week was for Nuria. She was the one with the awkward task of publicly announcing election results on the telly. She could be seen visibly shrinking as the awful truth was being revealed. Much as she might have preferred for there to have been one final burst of communication error, it was impossible: her party was going down the pan. But while she insisted that the corruption hovering over the PP with its now angelic, non-Catalan symbolism was not a factor, others fessed up and said it was. Like, for instance, the president of the PP in Palma, José María Rodríguez. Well he should know, having only avoided a rap thanks to the statute of limitations.

Nuria was left to struggle with the communication breakdown between PP Balearics and PP Central. There is going to be a party congress at the end of the summer, she insisted. Oh no there isn't, said central office. You'll have to wait until after the general election. Why this apparent difference of opinion or communication error? Nothing to do with José Ramón Bauzá wishing to clear the PP leadership decks in the Balearics and prepare his campaign to be elected as a PP Balearics delegate to the national parliament? Or was it one final - and vain - attempt to demonstrate that PP Balearics was more regionalist than its critics would suggest and wasn't a mere puppet of central office?

Elections: Where do they leave tourism?

Pablo Piñero, the president of Grupo Piñero, of which the Bahia Principe hotels and resorts is one part, sounded a warning before the regional election that the Balearics would be in danger if it was not governed by the Partido Popular. He considered that parties such as Podemos lacked people with the necessary abilities for tourism decision-making in government, comparing the alternative parties with the people that the PP has had at its disposal in government: "great professionals" who have benefited everyone and who have created thousands of jobs. He also attacked the idea of there being an eco-tax. Mallorca and Spain had, not so long ago, been on the point of bankruptcy, why would there now be an eco-tax, one that would be a repetition of a previous mistake?

To say that the elections in the Balearics (and everywhere else in Spain) have dominated tourism matters over the past few days would be an understatement. But not everyone appears to be as concerned as Sr. Piñero was prior to voting day. For example, Juan José Hidalgo, the president of Globalia (which includes Air Europa and Be Live hotels), said that he didn't really see a problem, believing that there would be talks and negotiations with newcomers to government to ensure that everything that is best for Spain will be done. Everyone should take a long hard look at tourism and talk, he suggested, and so respect a rule to create wealth and opportunities. He doesn't think that this "simple rule" will change.

Of course, there are those who believe that things will change. Dramatically so. The possibility of there being an eco-tax in the Balearics has become more likely as a consequence of last Sunday's voting. This might well prove to be unpopular with some, but what about proposals regarding private accommodation for holiday rental, all-inclusives and others?

The belief had been that a shift to the left at the election would lead to a coalition government headed by PSOE's Francina Armengol. This may well prove to have been wrong. Within tourism circles, and others, the belief now is that Biel Barceló of the Més socialists-nationalists could well become president of a PSOE-Més-Podemos triumvirate: he would be far more acceptable to Podemos, and as Més and Podemos together command more seats in the new parliament than PSOE, he may well be destined to become president.

The Més tourism programme does, therefore, require looking at. The eco-tax is one element of it. Otherwise, it refers to regulation of all-inclusives and of private accommodation. What this regulation would be precisely is not as yet clear, but the implication is that there would be restrictions introduced on the former and permissiveness introduced for the latter: essentially, therefore, what a lot of people have been calling for. Més is also proposing that there be tax incentives to facilitate a lengthening of the tourism season. Again, there have been many calls for precisely this type of fiscal intervention to encourage hotels and other establishments to remain open in the off-season.

While alarm bells in the tourism sector will have been ringing since Sunday, the Més programme is not especially radical. Clearly there will be concerns that investment might be undermined, but perhaps Sr. Hidalgo's rather relaxed attitude will prove to be more appropriate than Sr. Piñero's anxiety. It is certainly the case that the industry would love there to be a coalition tie-up between the Partido Popular and PSOE (and if Més were so insistent about having its man as president might this even yet happen?), but in the absence of such an alliance, the industry was alert to the proposals from Més and others, which is why discussions were taking place before the election - typified by the hoteliers' federation meeting with all the parties.

Perhaps the greatest uncertainty lies with the somewhat vague references to a "new model" of tourism. Més and Podemos have alluded to a tourism which affords greater benefits to all and not just a limited sector of society, primarily the hoteliers, and it will be with they - the hoteliers - who a left-leaning administration will have its greatest battles. But were there to be restrictions on new hotel building and on all-inclusives as well as a system that permits more tourism commercialisation of private accommodation (and maybe an airline for Mallorca), would these measures prove to be widely unpopular? And, much though the possibility of an eco-tax has been criticised, it might come as a surprise to discover that the principle of such a tax is one that does also have a good deal of support - assuming one believes opinion surveys, that is.

The Population Principle: Municipalities

There are 67 municipalities in the Balearics - 53 in Mallorca, eight in Menorca, five in Ibiza and the one of Formentera. There are 59 deputies in the Balearic parliament. There is a mismatch between the two figures because there isn't meant to be a match between the two. Deputies are not elected according to municipality; their number is the consequence of some strange logic which determines that there needs to be one deputy for roughly every 17,000 people on the islands. The population-deputy ratio differs from region to region in Spain. There is no hard-and-fast rule other than a principle of arriving at the number of deputies based on population and size of territory, but this does give rise to huge variations.

Part of the backdrop to the elections on Sunday has been discussion of both the number of parliamentary deputies and the number of municipalities. President Bauzá tried to get the former reduced but his proposal was defeated. Certain parties have spoken of cutting the number of municipalities or merging them. The rationale behind both has been cost and the anticipation of greater efficiencies that would accrue, and it is a rationale which, in purely pragmatic terms, is difficult to take issue with. But the stubbornness in resisting either fewer deputies or fewer municipalities takes little account of cost. There is history to consider as well, and the municipalities are where it resides.

It can seem daft that almost half the total number of municipalities across Spain - 8,122 in all - have populations of under 500 people. (Mallorca might be said to be positively sensible in this regard as it only has two - Escorca and Estellencs.) It might seem crackers that despite the desire of national government to reduce the cost of public administration, and indeed a 2013 law aimed at doing so, seven new municipalities of small size have emerged in Spain since the last local elections in 2011. Why? It all has to do with old law under which a petition for "independence" could be granted before the 2013 law came in which established that there had to be 5,000 people resident before "independence" was attainable.

Mallorca, over the years, has seen its municipalities grow in number, thanks to this principle of independence. Once upon a time, and just as one example, Son Servera wasn't independent but part of Arta. An 1820 law decreed that once there were 1,000 residents, villages could become independent, which is what happened to Son Servera. The population principle is what, despite the mismatch between municipalities and parliamentary deputies in the Balearics and the loose way in which the number of deputies was arrived at (the population was significantly lower when it was), goes to the heart of representation in Spain and it has done for centuries.

But more than this is the political role of the municipalities. Spain today is highly decentralised. While the Franco regime operated according to far more centralised criteria, decentralisation of a type existed. There were still municipalities with their town halls and their mayors (albeit they were appointed by the government). Spain has long been decentralised, and it has been a decentralisation found in the power but also the political freedoms of the municipalities.

Today's electoral system, with all it implies for numbers of deputies, can be traced back to one municipality - Cadiz. It was here in 1812 that the Liberal Constitution was drawn up and a national parliament created. It was a declaration of resistance against Napoleon and to be a further one against the odd ways of King Ferdinand VII, but it was one which partly took as its inspiration the quasi-democratic traditions of other Spanish municipalities that had existed for years.

The municipality is, therefore, something ingrained into the national consciousness. Because of the historical association, it is an institution which means far more than simply an administrative area. Ally this to sentiment and to a social desire for identity, and the forces against reform of the system of municipalities are immense. (In Mallorca an expression of this identity is the way in which residents of a particular town are known by it - Alcudia "alcudiencs", Calvia "calvianers" and so on.) And then on top of all this are the needs of current-day politics. Sweep away municipalities or merge them and political parties would eliminate positions for members. They would also lose power bases, those which help them to be represented among the 59 parliamentary deputies. The Rajoy government might have seemed as though it would reform local government but how much was it aware what it might have lost were it to have done so seriously and drastically? There is self-interest and self-preservation in having so many municipalities. And on Sunday, votes will be cast for councillors of the 67 and for deputies to make up the 59. Logic doesn't really come into it.

"Record" Easter, Elections And Eco-tax

Easter joy. Mallorca enjoyed the best Easter of the last decade. Hotel occupancy was at 76% with 80% of hotels open. In some parts of the island the occupancy was into the eighty-percentage bracket or even 90% (Camp de Mar). Joy indeed, but are we convinced? An analysis I made of Alcúdia revealed that the percentage of hotels open was not of the order that was being boasted; it was more like 50%. Alcúdia is only one resort, but if it is indicative, then where were the 80%?

Forgive my scepticism, but do I detect the proximity of elections and the support of the hoteliers' federation for the regional government? Good news on the tourism front can act as a boost to the Bauzá administration not just because of tourist numbers but also because of more employment, something that the federation has also been at pains to point to. This good news should say to the electorate that "tourism is working" under the PP and thus quell any talk of policies which might interrupt this, e.g. the revival of a tourist tax, and fire a pre-electoral broadside against parties that might undo this work.

If the good news is genuinely to be believed, it is the consequence principally of a revival in the domestic market, by which one means both Spanish mainland and Mallorcan: there were, for example, hotels in the north with Easter-breakers from the south. It is also a consequence, perhaps to a lesser degree, of instability elsewhere, notably Tunisia. Both these factors will come to Mallorca's aid this summer, but neither is proof that "tourism is working" under the PP per se.

This said, a change to the political landscape does introduce an element of uncertainty to the island's tourism. With the elections moving ever closer, issues such as a tourist tax are moving higher up the debating agenda. Som Palma, which is the city's version of Podemos, is speaking of introducing a specific tourist tax for Palma, the "same as exists in other European cities", while at a forum during the week, tourism minister Jaime Martínez and the hoteliers' president, Aurelio Vázquez, clashed with David Abril of Més over the potential for a tax. Martínez said that now was the time to be lowering taxes not creating new ones. Vázquez alluded to the disaster that was the old eco-tax. Abril insisted that a tax would be about "sharing prosperity" and recovering the future (whatever this means).

Francina Armengol for PSOE - and she may well become the next president of the Balearics - spoke earlier in the week about a tourist tax, saying that it might have to be looked at if financing from the state for the Balearics was not improved. Linking the possible introduction of a tax to the issue of financing was an attack on the regional government's perceived failure to negotiate an improved financing arrangement with Madrid, but doubts remain as to how committed PSOE might be to such a tax. Despite one of its spokespeople, Cosme Bonet, having talked up a tourist tax, the party has not forgotten the eco-tax disaster that Vázquez was quick to remind everyone of at the forum. It was a tax that a PSOE-led government introduced.

Nevertheless, battle is well and truly being joined, and tourism, especially in the form of a tourist tax, is going to be one of the key issues of the forthcoming elections.

The Unhealthy Brass Neck Of Politics

Almost 1,000 million euros. This was the saving that the Spanish Government anticipated making by getting tough with so-called health tourism and by denying primary health-care assistance to those who were "sin papeles". The then health minister, Ana Mato, announced these measures in April 2012. They involved a reform not of health legislation but of the law on immigration. The target of the savings was the "tarjeta sanitaria", the health card. It would no longer be sufficient to be on the local register - "empadronamiento" - to get a card; fiscal residency had also be to confirmed. Those who were in "irregular" situations would lose the right to health care, except in the cases of emergencies, maternity and child care.

Twelve years earlier, the Aznar administration - also a Partido Popular one - had granted foreigners (and we are talking predominantly those from Africa) complete access to the national health system even if they were in situations of "irregularity". The immigration law established that being "empadronado" was sufficient. Aznar's government was responding at that time to the flood of immigrants coming into Spain, who were in fact being openly invited into Spain as they were needed for building and infrastructure development in order to fulfil the nation's economic miracle.

What a difference twelve years made. Economic crisis demanded that scapegoats were sought in order to relieve the state's debts, while immigrant workers were no longer making contributions of meaningful sorts, all the projects having been completed, mothballed or identified as monuments to colossal waste. Governments of different types had desired their vanity schemes. They implemented them and they welcomed foreign workers to realise them. And then, when the money ran out and the corruption became evident, they turned their backs on these workers and their families.

Of course, there are "illegals". We all know there are. But these fall into different categories, one of them being the workers who, quite legitimately (because the law said so), were perfectly entitled to full health care. This categorisation notwithstanding, when the government changed its rules, there was an outcry - from doctors and other professionals, from human-rights advocates, from Europe.

Come forward to the present time and the government has changed the rules again. The minister for health, Alfonso Alonso, will now allow those who are "sin papeles" rights to health care that his predecessor had taken away, albeit that the health card will not be given back. Critics have described the move as "vague", as it is unclear how health treatment can work without a patient having a card, but it is a move taken, nevertheless, with one eye on elections. The PP wants to appear more humane.

This loss of humaneness was no more evident than in the Balearics. It might be recalled that before he started falling out with Madrid over oil and financing, José Ramón Bauzá was hailed as the model PP regional president, his administration typifying all that Rajoy desired. The rules on health were followed with zeal. So much so that on 24 April 2013, Alpha Pam, a Senegalese immigrant, died in his apartment in Can Picafort. He had been denied treatment at Inca Hospital. He was "sin papeles". He would have to pay. He couldn't. He was, however, an emergency. Or should have been categorised as such and so covered by the provisions of the 2012 law. His death should not have happened. His condition, tuberculosis, was easily treatable had greater care and humanity been shown to him.

There are reckoned to be some 20,000 people in the Balearics who are "sin papeles". The adults won't have any influence on elections, and nor will those in other parts of Spain. It is not their vote which is being sought, though.

Last Wednesday, leading figures in the Partido Popular gathered in Madrid for a meeting at which the party's image was discussed. There will be a "relaunch" of a party which is aware that it could be facing obliteration at the regional elections and, worse still, at the national election at the end of the year. The health issue with immigrants is one strand of an attempt to appear more pleasant, but this has been made all the more difficult by the passing of the Citizens' Safety Law, a measure, like the attitude towards immigrants and health, that has been slammed by professionals (lawyers in this instance), the human-rights lobby, opposition parties and Europe.

It is a relaunch that is almost certainly too late for the regional elections and quite probably for the general election as well. But you have to admire the brass neck of a party that can perform U-turns on issues such as immigrants and health (not a manifesto pledge) and abortion, which was in the manifesto, in its desperation to come across as human and humane.

The Future Of Tourism: Two euros a night

Be afraid, be very afraid? In an article a couple of weeks ago I announced that the eco-tax was back, if only back as a likely electoral pledge by certain parties. We now know more of what one of these parties - Més - has in mind. Its tax, dubbed a tax for tourism reinvestment, would be charged at an average of two euros per night per tourist. The charging would be in ports and airports and the revenue raised would amount to 108 million euros per annum.

Més has arrived at a series of programmes - fifteen in all - that will form the basis for its May election manifesto. One of these is the programme for the economy. It is this one which sets out the party line on tourism, and at the weekend the Més presidential candidate, Biel Barceló, described the tourist tax as "the future of tourism and the economy of our land" (by which he meant Mallorca and the Balearics). The tax and reinvestment that would come from it, he suggested, would guarantee shared prosperity and he went on to say that the tax would be ploughed into investments in the environment, education and innovation.

Més has spent two years debating its proposals, so one would assume that it has had sufficient time to think them through. The fifteen different programmes are detailed enough but, and the tourist tax is a prime example, they lack detail as to implementation and justification. Sure, its economic programme document starts by stating that the planet is finite and that Mallorca is finite, but justification for what it is proposing demands more than a pledge to save the world.

In principle, I am not opposed to a tourist tax. Tourists should shoulder some burden for the use of resources in the same way as the islands' taxpayers do. There is, if you like, a moral obligation to do so. But principle is not the same as practice and nor is it justification when the claims that Més is making for it are questionable within the context of broader proposals it has for economic reform. The 108 million euros are roughly equivalent to what the Balearics receive through the central government's budget for investment in the likes of infrastructure and the environment. But Més wants the whole system of financing reformed. It wants tax sovereignty, which implies much higher levels of direct investment and a greater share of the tax revenue pot than is currently the case. Were there to be such a reform, then why would there be any need for a tourist tax?

The fact is that such a reform would be very unlikely to occur unless there really was a Podemos-sized shift in central government, and even then it might not occur. But whether it did or it didn't, for Més to claim that some 100 million euros per annum would represent some tourism or economic future is laughable. In terms of overall financing for the Balearics at present that amount is chicken feed.

Coming to the implementation, there are three points to be made. The first relates to the proposed tax rate. It is more than double the typical rate that Catalonia applies, and in Catalonia the tax is only levied on tourists over the age of sixteen and on a maximum of seven nights. So, a higher tax rate might be considered prejudicial when compared with the competition that Catalonia represents. Following on from this, the Catalonian tax was initially going to be higher, but the government reduced it because it was felt to be too onerous. The revenues that Catalonia actually receives through its tourist tax are consequently much lower than originally envisaged, but the millions that are raised are clearly earmarked: for tourism promotion and infrastructure.

The third point has to do with how the tax would be collected. Més says that it would be charged at ports and airports. But how? Will all tourists have a document (or passport) stamped with a date of arrival and then divvy up on departure? Will everyone arriving at the airport have to prove that he or she is not a tourist? Sorry, but I don't think that Més has thought it through.

Més will not win the election in May, but there is every chance of it being part of a coalition, and as I observed previously, both Podemos and PSOE are also talking about a tourist tax. But what none of them seem to appreciate is that Mallorca holds far greater interest for the British and German media than anywhere else in Spain. Partly this is historical, partly it is because of stuff that goes in the likes of Magalluf. Slap a two-euro-a-night tax on tourists, and there will be media hell to pay. I might agree with a tourist tax in principle but I am more than willing to swallow that principle.

The Desperation Of José Ramón

"Desperado, why don't you come to your senses?" When The Eagles released this, at a time when the music world was prepared to concede that they were any good, the leaders of the two main political parties in the Balearics were mere toddlers. José Ramón Bauzá and Francina Armengol might have grown up together, their entries into this world separated by some nine months: boy and girl, childhood sweethearts, forever devoted, forever in a pact of togetherness. Alas, this was not how it was to be. Fate conspired to keep them apart, to follow different paths, if only politically. Pharmaceutically they had a bond, his family pharmacy in Marratxi, her family pharmacy in Inca. Hence we have what we have: the world of Balearics politics, run by chemists, each dispensing paracetamol to relieve the giant headaches of the populace they cause.

Francina turned on José last week. "Desperado". Not just desperate but very desperate. "Muy desperado". José wanted to turn back the clock, to discover what they had been denied in their infancy. Togetherness. A pact. Francina was having none of it. Now a matriarch, for her a craving for the rules of the kindergarten - sometimes adhered to - applies only so much in the adult world of Balearics politics. PSOE's leader rejected a post-electoral accord with José's PP.

José was desperate. Desperate for an alliance to keep the PP in power. The mere suggestion of a pact with PSOE showed he understands what the polls say. Bye, bye, Bauzá. And with all the nasty, rough boys of the left forming gangs to beat up his mayors in the sticks, José was in desperate need of his own gang, his own pact. Every other party is pacting, so why not the PP? But José has found, as he will continue to find, that no one wants to join his gang. He is being consigned to a corner of the playground, the others having stolen his ball and calling him horrid names.

Spurned, José shouted that Francina's PSOE was slipping to become the third force in the islands' politics but that he was offering her a way to be more of a force, a part of a grand force of PP and PSOE. It is the time for "responsibility, high-mindedness, for democratic participation and stability", all of which only the PP, together in peace and harmony with PSOE, can offer. Francina wasn't listening, and as usual the Bauzá Babe In Chief contributed her penny's worth. Mabel Cabrer bellowed that Francina was interested only in agreements with "radical extremists".

José's pact gambit proved that the desperado had indeed taken leave of his senses. What is it, above all, that Podemos rejects? The two-party, PP-PSOE system. Yet here was José willing a duopolistic electoral carve-up, evidence of a perpetuation and magnification of the cosy system considered to be discredited by Podemos. It would not only have been Podemos who would have smelt a very large rat. The electorate would have detected the whiff as well. Desperation leads to desperate measures, but a PP-PSOE pact would be one too far, even for a desperado.

Speed Dating For Socialists

In a week when the Mallorcan agenda has been dominated by whether or not Hamish McHamish can travel from Stornoway to Palma without having to go via New York and can do so, moreover, at a time that allows him to first enjoy a hearty breakfast, and by a broader agenda of the redefinition of omnishambles by England's cricket team and something that has been happening in "Eastenders" (of which I remain blissfully unaware), Mallorcan life has staggered on in not untypically chaotic fashion and has, in the process, introduced the concept of speed dating to political formations. Parties everywhere have been getting into bed with each other, seduced by the merest hint of flirtation. Fancy a pact? Your place or mine? The left have been tying themselves up in knots of mutual bondage: several shades of political neither black nor white that may, by the time they have finished pacting away, exceed fifty. As there are three more than fifty municipalities in Mallorca, then this is eminently feasible.

When the cat of Podemos was thrown among the pigeons of socialist or something-resembling socialist parties, its claws bared ready to attack and have a good lunch, little might we have appreciated that these various parties (of which there is an unfathomably large number) would resort to an unseemly scavenging for the scraps of power by discarding ideological differences and, with or without the Top Cat of Podemos, combine them to make recipes that can best be described as cooking up stews of "anyone but the Partido Popular". Ingredients may be incompatible, their flavours may clash, but who cares? It's all about becoming Master Political Chef (or Chefs).

Here a pact, there a pact, everywhere a pact, pact. But amidst all this coalescing and ganging up on the poor PP, there is Podemos which one minute doesn't know whether it will sanction involvement in municipal elections and the next minute appears to do so and which says, on the one hand, that there can't be any pacts and then, on the other, appears to change its mind.

As much as one can actually fathom out what is going on, we do know that, for instance, in Sóller its local Podemos lot has defied politburo orders by forming a pact with PSOE, Més and Guanyem. You, Sóller Podemos sorts, can't become Junts per Soller, says the citizens' council of the Balearics Podemos and if you insist on being a junt, you'll be expelled from the party. Here is just one example of how the speed dating has been working and is, as a consequence, causing total and utter confusion. What are the voters meant to make of all this? Who actually might they vote for?

One feels that rather than anyone but the PP, the electorate may come to the conclusion that it's better the devil they know after all rather than some cobbled-together amalgamation of God knows what.

Podemos And The Syriza Effect

When Pablo Iglesias, the leader of Podemos, was photographed in triumphant pose with Alexis Tspiras in Athens last week, I wondered if he might regret it. Following Syriza's astonishing electoral performance, it is possible to view those photos in alternative ways. Does Iglesias's association with and support for a supposedly hard-left party put the frighteners up Spanish voters or does it embolden these voters?

There are similarities but there are differences between Syriza and Podemos. One difference lies with the nature of the two entities. Syriza has a longer history, one that can be traced back to the start of the century but which really only became formalised at the time of the 2004 elections in Greece. A coalition of the left, it has gone through processes by which it has become a definable political party that has lost some of its more extreme propositions along the way but which remains very much to the left. Podemos, on the other hand, is very much newer, a case of almost spontaneous political combustion that is still not clearly definable as a party in the sense that its policies and make-up are fluid because of the way in which democratic participation helps to define and mould them. Ostensibly, it is of the left and operates within the parameters of left-wing politics, but watering-down can occur and has occurred, as with adopting a less dogmatic view on nationalisation. And because the Podemos philosophy is one of disassociation from the established party system, it sees itself not in terms of the clash between left and right but as aspiring towards centrality (to paraphrase what Iglesias has said).

Syriza's win can be attributed to three key elements - the austerity driven by the troika and the consequent "humiliation" of Greece, corruption and a desire to overthrow the elite, be it political or business, and to establish greater meritocracy. Spain, while its pride has taken a considerable knock, has not been subjected to the humiliation of Greece - there was no sovereign bailout after all, just one for the banking system - and the effects of austerity have not been as severe as in Greece (though they have been severe enough). Consequently, the Germans and the EU are not the hated figures in Spain to the same degree as they are in Greece. For Podemos, the enemy lies more within than without, which is where there are very strong similarities with Syriza. Corruption, elitism, the systems of amiguismo, of favouritism, of nepotism that inhibit meritocracy; for Greece, read also Spain.

With Europe not the same prime target for the ire of the Spanish people, does this lessen the likelihood of Podemos reproducing an electoral performance similar to that of Syriza? It may do, but the Greek election could also act as a springboard for even greater support for Podemos. There are differences in circumstances but only some. What Syriza has proved is that an electorate can overthrow the established system and it has done so by tapping into what contemporary society offers - the social networking of a different way of thinking and of experimentation: the post-capitalist society, if you like.

At the same time as Syriza was turning Greek politics upside down, Spain's Partido Popular was gathering in Madrid for a national convention. The pomposity of such conventions seems cringeworthy in this new society, as are the banalities of statements surrounding corruption. Rajoy was speaking only hours after Bárcenas announced that Rajoy has always known about the B accounts. Away from Madrid, PSOE's Susana Díaz in Andalusia was calling a snap election, having broken the pact of regional government with the Esquerra Unida. There's more to it than that: power politics and a possible challenge to Pedro Sánchez.

The public, in the climate of the rise of Podemos and of Syriza's victory, will look upon these events with contempt and with the knowledge that they confirm the essential proposition of Podemos, that now is the time to change these games and political charades. The main parties are being exposed as antediluvian, and commentators who persist in believing that the status quo will naturally be restored are failing to grasp the significance of what is occurring: that styling politics in Spain according to the two-party system of left and right is becoming outmoded and that is being superseded by new ways of thinking largely inspired by a younger generation hooked on social networking democracy and on technology. It should, incidentally, not be overlooked that Syriza, Podemos and also the forgotten alternative in Spain, Partido X, are all heavily in favour of investment in innovation and development.

Nevertheless, for Podemos, perhaps its greatest worry is what lies ahead over the next few months. The what's-next question has yet to be answered in Greece. The answer might just alarm Spanish voters. Or it might not.

The Struggle For Balearics Education

Two years of struggle. The very word struggle conjures up images and sentiments of great struggles of the past - workers' rights, women's rights, civil rights - all of them battles with established orders in demanding what was just and fair. But two years struggle in the Balearics? Two years for the rights of what precisely?

At Can Alcover in Palma, an exhibition is being held that celebrates the struggle of Balearics teachers, and in particular the Assemblea de Docents teachers' organisation, against the ramifications of trilingual teaching (TIL). The exhibition was in fact launched in Barcelona to commemorate the first anniversary of the massive anti-TIL demonstration in Palma at the end of September 2013. It has been brought over to Mallorca and it will be on display until 14 February. It shows, among other things, photos of the demo and charts the chronology of the struggle from the time that TIL was approved, through the sackings of two education ministers and the three-week strike, to the various "denuncias", the latest of them being against Isabel Cerdà, the director-general for planning, innovation and professional training at the education ministry, for a supposed abuse of office in respect of the "massive approval of TIL projects".

This has not been a struggle against TIL per se. It has been a struggle against the perceived unfairness and unjustness of a teaching regime that has sought to diminish the influence of Catalan. One neglects the past at one's peril, but notwithstanding the discriminations of the past and the potential for them to repeat themselves, styling this all as a struggle of some form of social injustice neglects what has been and remains a political confrontation. Both sides, teachers and government, have denied that they have had political motives, but they most definitely have: the struggle has been a clash between entrenched ideologies with language at their core. The unjustness and unfairness have been those that have plunged the education system into chaos; the victims are those on the receiving end of this system, the schoolchildren and many parents who have not been persuaded by the narrative of the teachers' struggle.   

Who pulled the first political trigger in all this mess is now pretty much irrelevant. The chronology of the struggle is thus also now irrelevant. What should be relevant and what should be the struggle is to come to an accord to create a rich, varied, contemporary public education system for a region of Spain which, linguistic arguments aside, has obstinately underperformed for way too long. Instead, and despite the protestations of government and teachers which insist that they have made paramount the needs of schoolchildren, the education system has been hung out to dry by a conflict which could have been predicted and one in which both sides have been eager participants. A plague on both their houses.

It suits the Assemblea to remind everyone of the struggle because of the next stage in its process. If, as they have threatened, the teachers go ahead with strikes in the lead-up to the regional election, these might easily backfire because of the weariness of parents. The teachers will believe otherwise: that strikes will be an additional force in bringing down the Partido Popular in May.

Strikes or no strikes, this may well happen in any event, and already there are clear indications as to what will transpire if there is a change of government. Francina Armengol of PSOE went on record months ago in saying that she would scrap TIL. On Saturday, at a conference in Palma, she spoke of taking "ambitious measures" in creating a quality public education system through a "social and political pact" that will restore peace to the classrooms. What such a pact might be and what such measures might also be, we are yet to find out, but it was perhaps no coincidence that Armengol should be speaking about such a pact when one has already been formed. Various bodies, such as the Assemblea and the Balearics parents association, have come together in drawing up what they would see forming a new education law, one to be introduced by an alternative government to the PP. While vague about but not dismissive of third language teaching, there would be a return to giving Catalan priority; a minimum 50% of teaching hours in Catalan without specifying what might be the maximum. 

Were this to come to pass, then the struggle would be over, but for how long? The four years it would take for the electorate to decide that it wants to bring the PP back into government? And then where would be? Back no doubt to the same arguments, the same conflict and the same struggle. Or maybe not. If there's one thing that many in the PP have discovered, it is that they sense some unjustness and unfairness in the current government's policies.

We Can Collapse Governments

Two opinion polls were published at the weekend. They were opinion polls that would have wrecked any hopes that Mariano Rajoy or José Ramón Bauzá would have had for a nice, pleasant Sunday. The Partido Popular both nationally and in the Balearics are heading for the exits next year.

The poll by the Balearics Institute for Social Studies on behalf of "Ultima Hora" confirms previous recent surveys which suggest that in May next year the PP would lose eight seats in the Balearic parliament. Down to 27 from the current 35, it would lose its overall majority (30 seats are needed for a majority). Its percentage of the vote would slip by around 9% and though this would still make it the most voted-for party (37%), it would be unable to form a government without the support of other parties, and it would be most unlikely to attract sufficient support, if any.

A startling aspect of this poll is not so much the losses that the PP would suffer but those that PSOE would experience. The main opposition party, it stands to lose three seats (or two if one takes a Formentera coalition branch to be a shoo-in). The even more startling aspect is the party which would be taking seats from both of them - Podemos ("we can"). It might win as many as ten seats. Win not gain, because of course there was no Podemos at the last election.

It might have been possible to have dismissed Podemos's performance at the European elections earlier this year as a one-off kicking for the main parties. In which case that would have been to have underestimated Podemos. It has come from nowhere but it isn't about to suddenly disappear. It holds the key to the elections next year.

In the Balearics the opinion poll gives the PP little or no hope of finding coalition partners. El Pi, the party which emerged from the discredited and defunct Unió Mallorquina, might get one seat. The UPyD also might get one seat, but for it to ally with the PP, despite its centrist tendencies, would go against much of its reason for being, which was to challenge the two main parties.

And this, the challenge to the main parties, is one of the key reasons why Podemos came into existence. It is populist in a way that is far removed from the UPyD; about as far removed as its political agenda. But it, as with the UPyD, has to face the reality of what it has created. If it is to serve any purpose as a political organisation, it has to be prepared to work with the main parties, which almost certainly wouldn't mean the PP. Therefore, it only has one option - PSOE. If there were to be a coalition between PSOE and Podemos, it would be a coalition which would be expected to bring along the Més leftist grouping as well. Between them, they would just about scrape together a majority.

In terms of government, Podemos is a totally unknown quantity. As such, therefore, its very popularity brings with it an enormous amount of uncertainty. It is not used to the games of government; indeed, it is these very games that it rejects. What happens or might happen if it were to enter a coalition, in which it would get some top positions by virtue of its number of seats, but then discovers that it has disagreements?

There has to be a real danger that a coalition could be thrown into chaos or could collapse. We will discover over the next weeks and months just how much common ground Francina Armengol of PSOE can find with the Balearics wing of Podemos, assuming she can find any. But the attitude of Podemos and its supporters towards PSOE can be seen in the findings of the Metroscopia poll that was published in "El País". They are overwhelmingly negative with regard to PSOE's new national leader, Pedro Sánchez.

And if there might be chaos in the Balearics, what about nationally? The decline in support for the PP has crumbled, according to the Metroscopia poll. PSOE's support is about the same as it was in 2011. Podemos, on the other hand, has a level of support not far behind that of the PP. This is not a poll which estimates how the vote might go nationally but it is a survey which indicates where sentiment lies, and it is sentiment which could yet create as uncertain a pattern in national government as it could in the Balearics.

Rajoy, with some better news about the economy and with the promise of tax-giveaways, has more time than Bauzá in the Balearics to potentially turn things around. Bauzá has nothing to give away, only himself. The Balearics PP might conceivably hold on next spring, if and only if there was a different leader.

When Local Elections Matter: Moors and Christians

A little bit of electoral manipulation never goes amiss. Need to find a few more votes, well, make some up. Need to lose some votes for an opponent, well, slip the chap in charge of the returns a few quid. Or get him drunk, so he won't notice.

I don't know that we ever considered it to be electoral fraud. It was more a case of ensuring things went as we felt they should do. The trouble was that one of the chaps in charge of the returns proved to be incorruptible. Students weren't meant to be like that. They were meant to be only too willing to take inducements. To our horror, a line of succession was disrupted by an overly studious and serious sort who had somehow got his way onto the constitutional committee and who was immune to bribery. He didn't even drink. What sort of a student do you call that?

But, this is all in the past of course. And the elections, in truth, didn't matter; student elections never did. Rather like most elections in Mallorca don't really matter. For the sake of democratic appearances, they do matter, but decision-making powers lurk in places well removed from corridors of legislatures. So, when there is the odd touch of electoral jiggery-pokery, everyone tut-tuts but acknowledges that it doesn't make a great deal of difference. "Twas ever thus.

At the local elections in 1999, the then mayor Muro, Jaume Perelló, arranged, with the help of a statistician at the town hall, for there to be an "adjustment" in the electoral roll. This resulted in people who weren't registered as living in Muro, indeed didn't live in Muro, becoming registered. Addresses which weren't in fact residences, such as garages, became addresses for the purpose of the electoral roll. Eventually, almost twelve years after the elections took place, Sr. Perelló found himself in front of a judge. He received a year's prison sentence, having accepted that he had committed an electoral fraud that had been intended to favour his party, the now defunct Unió Mallorquina.

This same ex-party found itself caught up in another bit of electoral shenanigans a couple of years back. In fact, it was the re-emergence of some shenanigans that had occurred four years previously. The party had been accused of buying votes in the form of handing 25 grand over to leaders of gypsy communities. The case had been archived in 2007 only for it to surface again in 2011.

There are elections, however, which do matter. And one was held on Friday night. It was the annual vote to elect participants in Pollensa's grand Moors and Christians bundle; kick-off 7pm on 2 August. Surely everything would be above board with these elections?

There isn't any suggestion that there was anything that wasn't above board, but, because these elections matter, things got a tad difficult when there were some questions raised when it came to the counting of the votes for the candidates to play the local hero, Joan Mas. Mysteriously, 25 votes for one candidate were suddenly removed from the giant screen. An error had been made, according to the chief returning officer. But, and by now (one o'clock in the morning) goodly amounts of cold drink had been taken, this brought claims of irregularities and, once the victor had been declared, a sharp exchange of words and the odd punch between supporters and counters ensued.

So, there are occasions when elections do matter to people. Local elections of the political variety may be something greeted with resigned shrugs, whether there is jiggery-pokery or there isn't, but when they are local elections that go to the heart of local traditions they mean very much more.

But local traditions, where the elections for the protagonists in the Moors and Christians battle are concerned, are not particularly traditional. The voting and the count have become a pre-fiestas party in their own right but, unlike the battle itself (the re-enactment has been going for some 150 years), elections are only 25 years old. Moreover, so great had been the indifference of the people of Pollensa towards the whole Moors and Christians gig that, at the end of the 1970s, incentives had to be given in order to get people to bother turning out for it.

Electoral manipulation there wasn't. A mistake there had been. The fracas might seem a bit silly, but no. The Moors and Christians would not have become the occasion it has, had it not been for the introduction of elections. They made the difference. They matter. 


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.

I Wanna Be Fiesta Elected

Fiesta time rolls around once more and so, therefore, do the fiesta elections. There are two key by-elections held each summer in northern Mallorca. One is to choose the angelic La Beata to parade along the streets of Santa Margalida and thumb her nose at the temptations of the devil, the other is an altogether bigger affair as there are that many more positions up for grabs - the Moors and Christians bundle in Pollensa on 2 August.

If anyone fancies getting himself put up, he had better get a move on. The chief returning officer, or whoever presides over the election and maintains good order, expects names by 21 June. But I'm afraid that the election isn't open to all-comers. If you don't live in Pollensa, if you don't speak Catalan (at least for one of the positions) and if you are younger than either 27 or 35 (depending on position), then you can forget it.

The various positions that are up for grabs, as they are each year, are those of the local hero, Joan Mas (Christians party), Dragut, Lloctinent and Abanderat (Moors party) and the four members of the old town hall (presumably also Christians party, though given Pollensa town hall's traditional chaos, they could be almost any party).

The position everyone really wants is Joan Mas. The chance to portray the saviour of Pollensa and to actually win the great battle (the result is a bit of a fix, as everyone knows who's going to win) is more attractive than being the perennial loser, as is the case with Dragut. To make his position even less attractive, he of course isn't a Christian, he gets referred to as a pirate (which he may well have been, but then so also, where the Spanish are concerned, was Francis Drake) and he doesn't appear to be required to speak Catalan. Which, to be honest, as a good Muslim boy from Bodrum in Turkey, he shouldn't be. 

The Catalan stipulation would seem to only apply to Joan Mas. Not even the old town hall chaps are expected to speak it, which will no doubt be something well received in Partido Popular circles, those in which the Balearics president moves. Catalan has, as we all know, in theory been removed as a requirement for employment in the public sector, but this doesn't apply to local heroes from the sixteenth century. Joan Mas can parlar away in Catalan to his heart's content. Which is as well, because the "Joan" is expected to deliver the great request for heavenly assistance against the pirates, and it would be distinctly odd if he were to do it in Spanish.

When the original Moors and Christians match-up occurred back in 1550, poor old Dragut wouldn't have had much idea what Joan's "Pollencins, alçauvos, els moros són aquí; mare de Déu dels Ángels protegiu-nos" yell was all about. Or would he? Lloctinent might have told him, as Lloctinent wasn't a Moor. He was a dirty, rotten, stinking traitor. Joan Xumet was his name; Lloctinent means lieutenant, his nickname. Whoever gets to play Lloctinent nowadays pulls the really short straw.

There is, though, one aspect about the elections which doesn't play well with a modern society. There are no women. The role of Joan really ought to be thrown open to both sexes, perhaps to a woman with the name of Joan. As for the Moors, well, you wouldn't expect there to be any women, but a town hall that is male-dominated? It sounds like Bauzá's regional government cabinet before he cottoned on to the need to get some females in to attract the feminine vote at the next election.

There again, political correctness plays a minimal role in the Moors and Christians. In fact, it plays no role whatsoever. Were it to, and doubtless this would be the case in some countries, it would have been banned by now. Or if not banned, then at least the Moors should be allowed to win now and then. There has to be a fear that one of these days a mad radical cell linked to Al-Qaeda is going to turn up at 7pm on the second of August brandishing real swords and not the toy wooden ones. Not that this would get them very far, because someone would point out that they hadn't been elected and, moreover, that they might well not be resident in Pollensa, might well be younger than 27 and hadn't got their nominations in by 21 June.

It's good to know that rules of elections still count for something.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.