"Desperado, why don't you come to your senses?" When The Eagles released this, at a time when the music world was prepared to concede that they were any good, the leaders of the two main political parties in the Balearics were mere toddlers. José Ramón Bauzá and Francina Armengol might have grown up together, their entries into this world separated by some nine months: boy and girl, childhood sweethearts, forever devoted, forever in a pact of togetherness. Alas, this was not how it was to be. Fate conspired to keep them apart, to follow different paths, if only politically. Pharmaceutically they had a bond, his family pharmacy in Marratxi, her family pharmacy in Inca. Hence we have what we have: the world of Balearics politics, run by chemists, each dispensing paracetamol to relieve the giant headaches of the populace they cause.
Francina turned on José last week. "Desperado". Not just desperate but very desperate. "Muy desperado". José wanted to turn back the clock, to discover what they had been denied in their infancy. Togetherness. A pact. Francina was having none of it. Now a matriarch, for her a craving for the rules of the kindergarten - sometimes adhered to - applies only so much in the adult world of Balearics politics. PSOE's leader rejected a post-electoral accord with José's PP.
José was desperate. Desperate for an alliance to keep the PP in power. The mere suggestion of a pact with PSOE showed he understands what the polls say. Bye, bye, Bauzá. And with all the nasty, rough boys of the left forming gangs to beat up his mayors in the sticks, José was in desperate need of his own gang, his own pact. Every other party is pacting, so why not the PP? But José has found, as he will continue to find, that no one wants to join his gang. He is being consigned to a corner of the playground, the others having stolen his ball and calling him horrid names.
Spurned, José shouted that Francina's PSOE was slipping to become the third force in the islands' politics but that he was offering her a way to be more of a force, a part of a grand force of PP and PSOE. It is the time for "responsibility, high-mindedness, for democratic participation and stability", all of which only the PP, together in peace and harmony with PSOE, can offer. Francina wasn't listening, and as usual the Bauzá Babe In Chief contributed her penny's worth. Mabel Cabrer bellowed that Francina was interested only in agreements with "radical extremists".
José's pact gambit proved that the desperado had indeed taken leave of his senses. What is it, above all, that Podemos rejects? The two-party, PP-PSOE system. Yet here was José willing a duopolistic electoral carve-up, evidence of a perpetuation and magnification of the cosy system considered to be discredited by Podemos. It would not only have been Podemos who would have smelt a very large rat. The electorate would have detected the whiff as well. Desperation leads to desperate measures, but a PP-PSOE pact would be one too far, even for a desperado.
Showing posts with label Pacts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pacts. Show all posts
Saturday, March 07, 2015
Monday, February 23, 2015
There May Be Chaos Ahead
Last October, the results of an opinion poll of voting intentions for the regional elections this May led me to suggest that government in the Balearics could be plunged into chaos and that the islands could be ungovernable. A new poll, for "Ultima Hora", hasn't altered my opinion and nor has it given any clearer indication as to the make-up of possible coalitions; the poll establishes that there would have to be a coalition of some style, as no one party would have a majority.
Three months away from the elections, the Partido Popular has yet to show signs of sufficient enough support returning to enable it to retain its current parliamentary majority. Deprived of friends and allies among other parties, it will, on current polling evidence, be booted out of government. The assumption of a pact of leftist parties forming the next government holds good, but what might this pact look like?
On the basis of the higher estimates of numbers of parliamentary deputies, an amalgam of PSOE (plus its Formentera wing), Podemos and Més would have 33 seats, three more than the 30 needed to form a majority. Lower estimates make things messier, so in order to avoid over-complicating hypotheses, let's accept the higher ones. PSOE would have the most seats and a one per cent greater share of the vote than Podemos. Francina Armengol would become president with Podemos and Més her partners.
This is the neat and easy way of looking at the poll, but neat and easy may not be how things will be, and that is because of Podemos. Much has been said about Podemos being an unknown quantity, but this is the unknown of policy. There is another unknown. How would Podemos behave in government?
This is no idle question because even entering into a coalition presents Podemos with a philosophical difficulty. Essentially, it rejects all established political parties, but this rejection is all but absolute when it comes to the "casta", the two main parties - PSOE and the PP. A coalition with PSOE would run counter to one of its principal reasons for existing - which is to break the duopoly of what is seen as a corrupt two-party system. Getting into bed with PSOE could, probably will be construed as hypocritical, but what's the alternative? Does Podemos turn down advances to form a coalition? If it does, why is it bothering with putting up candidates? Moreover, were it to, it would fail those who vote for it. If it gains 12 or 13 seats, as the poll suggests, its democratic responsibility would require it to swallow its philosophy.
This said, we have already begun to see that Podemos can be chameleon-like and pragmatic. Its distaste for the casta would be put aside in order to have a place at the governmental table. But then what? Here is the real unknown because of how Podemos operates.
The extent of its participative democracy can be exaggerated, as it has its citizens' councils to make final decisions, but the principle of participation is a Podemos fundamental. Might it abandon it as it would also abandon its rejection of the casta? Possibly, but if not, then how, when it holds places in parliament and a cabinet, is government going to function? It is here, I would suggest, that lie the roots of potential chaos. The portents are already not that good when one considers resignations and differences that have cropped up in various Podemos councils. And there would also be, in effect, differing systems of decision-making for a coalition government - parliament, the cabinet and the Podemos participators. How are these reconciled? Can they be?
It is Més, I believe, who would hold the key to a coalition. Given the experience of some of its senior people, I could see it acting as a type of peacemaker, but for how long could such a coalition hold together? We might all be surprised, and a coalition might work perfectly well, but there has to be a fear that at some point it would collapse and so would the government.
So much for the left, what about the right? The higher estimate for the PP is 27 seats, three short of a majority. A pact with El Pi (that might amount to 30 seats) has been ruled out by El Pi's Jaume Font. If this is impossible then it will be impossible, as things stand, for the PP to carry on after May. But, there might yet be a twist. PP barons won't admit it, but if Bauzá is declared "imputado" by the judge's investigation into the granting of new pharmacies, these barons might well welcome this. Bauzá would have to stand aside. Someone else, Gabriel Company, the environment-agriculture minister, or Maria Salom, the president of the Council of Mallorca, would take over. Suddenly, clawing back those three seats might not seem impossible.
Three months away from the elections, the Partido Popular has yet to show signs of sufficient enough support returning to enable it to retain its current parliamentary majority. Deprived of friends and allies among other parties, it will, on current polling evidence, be booted out of government. The assumption of a pact of leftist parties forming the next government holds good, but what might this pact look like?
On the basis of the higher estimates of numbers of parliamentary deputies, an amalgam of PSOE (plus its Formentera wing), Podemos and Més would have 33 seats, three more than the 30 needed to form a majority. Lower estimates make things messier, so in order to avoid over-complicating hypotheses, let's accept the higher ones. PSOE would have the most seats and a one per cent greater share of the vote than Podemos. Francina Armengol would become president with Podemos and Més her partners.
This is the neat and easy way of looking at the poll, but neat and easy may not be how things will be, and that is because of Podemos. Much has been said about Podemos being an unknown quantity, but this is the unknown of policy. There is another unknown. How would Podemos behave in government?
This is no idle question because even entering into a coalition presents Podemos with a philosophical difficulty. Essentially, it rejects all established political parties, but this rejection is all but absolute when it comes to the "casta", the two main parties - PSOE and the PP. A coalition with PSOE would run counter to one of its principal reasons for existing - which is to break the duopoly of what is seen as a corrupt two-party system. Getting into bed with PSOE could, probably will be construed as hypocritical, but what's the alternative? Does Podemos turn down advances to form a coalition? If it does, why is it bothering with putting up candidates? Moreover, were it to, it would fail those who vote for it. If it gains 12 or 13 seats, as the poll suggests, its democratic responsibility would require it to swallow its philosophy.
This said, we have already begun to see that Podemos can be chameleon-like and pragmatic. Its distaste for the casta would be put aside in order to have a place at the governmental table. But then what? Here is the real unknown because of how Podemos operates.
The extent of its participative democracy can be exaggerated, as it has its citizens' councils to make final decisions, but the principle of participation is a Podemos fundamental. Might it abandon it as it would also abandon its rejection of the casta? Possibly, but if not, then how, when it holds places in parliament and a cabinet, is government going to function? It is here, I would suggest, that lie the roots of potential chaos. The portents are already not that good when one considers resignations and differences that have cropped up in various Podemos councils. And there would also be, in effect, differing systems of decision-making for a coalition government - parliament, the cabinet and the Podemos participators. How are these reconciled? Can they be?
It is Més, I believe, who would hold the key to a coalition. Given the experience of some of its senior people, I could see it acting as a type of peacemaker, but for how long could such a coalition hold together? We might all be surprised, and a coalition might work perfectly well, but there has to be a fear that at some point it would collapse and so would the government.
So much for the left, what about the right? The higher estimate for the PP is 27 seats, three short of a majority. A pact with El Pi (that might amount to 30 seats) has been ruled out by El Pi's Jaume Font. If this is impossible then it will be impossible, as things stand, for the PP to carry on after May. But, there might yet be a twist. PP barons won't admit it, but if Bauzá is declared "imputado" by the judge's investigation into the granting of new pharmacies, these barons might well welcome this. Bauzá would have to stand aside. Someone else, Gabriel Company, the environment-agriculture minister, or Maria Salom, the president of the Council of Mallorca, would take over. Suddenly, clawing back those three seats might not seem impossible.
Sunday, February 22, 2015
Speed Dating For Socialists
In a week when the Mallorcan agenda has been dominated by whether or not Hamish McHamish can travel from Stornoway to Palma without having to go via New York and can do so, moreover, at a time that allows him to first enjoy a hearty breakfast, and by a broader agenda of the redefinition of omnishambles by England's cricket team and something that has been happening in "Eastenders" (of which I remain blissfully unaware), Mallorcan life has staggered on in not untypically chaotic fashion and has, in the process, introduced the concept of speed dating to political formations. Parties everywhere have been getting into bed with each other, seduced by the merest hint of flirtation. Fancy a pact? Your place or mine? The left have been tying themselves up in knots of mutual bondage: several shades of political neither black nor white that may, by the time they have finished pacting away, exceed fifty. As there are three more than fifty municipalities in Mallorca, then this is eminently feasible.
When the cat of Podemos was thrown among the pigeons of socialist or something-resembling socialist parties, its claws bared ready to attack and have a good lunch, little might we have appreciated that these various parties (of which there is an unfathomably large number) would resort to an unseemly scavenging for the scraps of power by discarding ideological differences and, with or without the Top Cat of Podemos, combine them to make recipes that can best be described as cooking up stews of "anyone but the Partido Popular". Ingredients may be incompatible, their flavours may clash, but who cares? It's all about becoming Master Political Chef (or Chefs).
Here a pact, there a pact, everywhere a pact, pact. But amidst all this coalescing and ganging up on the poor PP, there is Podemos which one minute doesn't know whether it will sanction involvement in municipal elections and the next minute appears to do so and which says, on the one hand, that there can't be any pacts and then, on the other, appears to change its mind.
As much as one can actually fathom out what is going on, we do know that, for instance, in Sóller its local Podemos lot has defied politburo orders by forming a pact with PSOE, Més and Guanyem. You, Sóller Podemos sorts, can't become Junts per Soller, says the citizens' council of the Balearics Podemos and if you insist on being a junt, you'll be expelled from the party. Here is just one example of how the speed dating has been working and is, as a consequence, causing total and utter confusion. What are the voters meant to make of all this? Who actually might they vote for?
One feels that rather than anyone but the PP, the electorate may come to the conclusion that it's better the devil they know after all rather than some cobbled-together amalgamation of God knows what.
When the cat of Podemos was thrown among the pigeons of socialist or something-resembling socialist parties, its claws bared ready to attack and have a good lunch, little might we have appreciated that these various parties (of which there is an unfathomably large number) would resort to an unseemly scavenging for the scraps of power by discarding ideological differences and, with or without the Top Cat of Podemos, combine them to make recipes that can best be described as cooking up stews of "anyone but the Partido Popular". Ingredients may be incompatible, their flavours may clash, but who cares? It's all about becoming Master Political Chef (or Chefs).
Here a pact, there a pact, everywhere a pact, pact. But amidst all this coalescing and ganging up on the poor PP, there is Podemos which one minute doesn't know whether it will sanction involvement in municipal elections and the next minute appears to do so and which says, on the one hand, that there can't be any pacts and then, on the other, appears to change its mind.
As much as one can actually fathom out what is going on, we do know that, for instance, in Sóller its local Podemos lot has defied politburo orders by forming a pact with PSOE, Més and Guanyem. You, Sóller Podemos sorts, can't become Junts per Soller, says the citizens' council of the Balearics Podemos and if you insist on being a junt, you'll be expelled from the party. Here is just one example of how the speed dating has been working and is, as a consequence, causing total and utter confusion. What are the voters meant to make of all this? Who actually might they vote for?
One feels that rather than anyone but the PP, the electorate may come to the conclusion that it's better the devil they know after all rather than some cobbled-together amalgamation of God knows what.
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