The maths are simple, give or take a plus or minus here and there. The latest poll suggests that a coalition of the right/centre-right could come into power after the 2019 election. This poll doesn't show any great movement from one last summer. It merely confirms the fact that the only party making a notable gain in the opinion polls is one of those on the loosely defined centre-right - Ciudadanos. It further verifies that PSOE and the Partido Popular are stuck in neutral and that Podemos and Més are in reverse.
If nothing else, the poll reveals that the "new politics" are very much alive. The pattern in the past with PSOE-led governments has been for the PP to come along and trounce them. There's no chance of that happening in 2019, and the PP know it. The party's spokesperson, Marga Prohens, has alluded to the fact that the PP will need a pact in order to form a government.
Unless there is some form of political earthquake between now and May next year, it is clear that there will be a coalition of one form or another. Polls, as we know, are not always accurate, but as the latest shows little movement compared with the previous, it is probably a fair reflection of wider voter sentiment.
A conclusion that the right/centre-right would automatically make an alliance, assuming they together reach the thirty seat majority threshold, is too simplistic. There are issues which bind them and those which do not. El Pi, forecast to increase by one its seats in parliament (from the current three to four), is already being cast in the role of kingmaker. Potentially, El Pi could go either way.
One of the principal differences between the PP, the C's and El Pi is the Catalan question, in particular the language and culture. El Pi was formed in a circuitous fashion. It is the amalgamation of the Convergencia, which was the remnant of the defunct and discredited Unió Mallorquina, and the Lliga Regionalista. This latter party was formed by Jaume Font, now the president of El Pi, after he left the PP. A reason for him having done so was that he was under investigation by a court (the case was later closed). The PP ethics, newly introduced by José Ramón Bauzá, barred election candidacy to anyone being investigated. Font disagreed with this, but he also disagreed with Bauzá's increasingly anti-Catalan stance prior to the 2011 election.
The PP, under new leader Biel Company, have moderated their views. The party has returned to what it once was in the Balearics: accepting of Catalan and also of regionalism. In this regard, the PP aren't distant from El Pi, which also clings to the sort of soft-nationalism that Maria Munar advocated with the UM. There is more of an issue with the C's.
One has to assume that the gains made by the C's (six or seven seats, according to the poll, compared with the current two) owe at least something to the party's stance on Catalonia and to educational matters in the Balearics. The leader of the C's, Xavier Pericay, has been a constant critic of Catalanism in education and of alleged political indoctrination (in favour of Catalan independence and republicanism) in schools. The PP might be prepared to swallow this, but El Pi might not.
For the parties of the government pact, the poll indicates a best-case scenario of them just crossing the finishing line. They would need the one seat of Gent per Formentera (pretty much assured) in order to get to the thirty majority, but this hardly represents a ringing endorsement of the government. Més and Podemos have both slipped, by a combined six seats at most in the poll. Both have their internal issues and both, so it would seem, are being penalised for a radicalism, the counterpoint to which is the rise of the C's.
PSOE, says the poll, might gain one seat and be bumped up to fifteen, but as with the PP, it is a party that finds itself suffering because of the new politics and the past errors. PSOE would be most unlikely to wish to abandon the so-called "progressive" politics enshrined in its agreements with Més and Podemos, but one still feels that it only has these agreements because it has no other choice.
If the pact parties failed to gain a majority, might El Pi be persuaded to ally with them? One can't rule anything out, but it would be hard to see how such an alliance could ever work. To take but one example, there are holiday rentals. El Pi sees things very differently.
As things stand, it is just possible that the election will lead to a minority government. El Pi would be the kingmaker. All the parties need to be nice to Jaume Font.
Showing posts with label Opinion poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Opinion poll. Show all posts
Monday, January 29, 2018
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
Rajoy: Close But No Cigar?
Mariano Rajoy will have been puffing on his New Year's havana with a degree of contentment. Back where he clearly believes he belongs - in perpetuity it can seem - the occupant of the Moncloa can blow calm smoke rings with the satisfaction of knowing that for all the trials of last year (and not just those to do with political uncertainty), no rival is hovering to dispossess him, while the poll rating continues to edge further upwards.
There was, however, an unwelcome piece of news to disturb him over Christmas. He received a phone call from Tony's little friend (the Tony being Blair and the friendship dating back to the Iraq War). The permanently jet-black-haired José María Aznar phoned Rajoy to tell him that he was relinquishing his post as honorary president of the Partido Popular. He will now only be like any other member of the party. Not that he can ever be that; he remains in the PP undergrowth, a diminutively towering presence, prepared at any moment to spring out and spray dye in casting doubts on the Rajoy way forward.
Aznar and Rajoy were once good friends. Wikileaks, though, showed that Aznar was not entirely convinced about Rajoy. This lack of conviction would seem to have lessened still over the years. The phone call would have come as a surprise. They have barely been on speaking terms. The PP hierarchy as a whole was surprised, but for a different reason. Aznar's decision hadn't been expected. But now that it has been delivered, Aznar and his foundation, which formally split from the PP in October, can act independently: a thorn in Rajoy's side, if Aznar so chooses.
Former and defeated leaders in Spain don't do the honourable thing and disappear. Felipe González was hardly a neutral figure in the moves which led to the purging of Pedro Sánchez as PSOE leader. Likewise, Aznar is there, forever lingering and lurking, his discontent with Rajoy seemingly more personal than based on pure politics or policies.
The breach might therefore not augur well for Rajoy, who has discovered - to everyone's lesser surprise than the Aznar manoeuvre - that PSOE is unwilling to give him a clear run with the 2017 budget. In fact, it is placing an enormous obstacle in the way and seems likely to present an amendment to the entire budget. Ultimately, this could mean yet another election.
So Rajoy may instead have been spluttering as he drew on his havana. If PSOE, emboldened despite its enfeebled state by having granted Rajoy licence to stay on as premier, now chooses to exploit this magnanimity and challenge the budget to the point of mortality, it will be a case of close but no cigar for the latest Rajoy project.
However, there is what the public thinks, and it is this which can allow Rajoy his moments of tranquil puffing. The latest poll by Sigma Dos for "El Mundo" shows the PP to still be in the ascendant. The rating, compared with the June election, has increased by 1.8% to 34.8%. It remains a distance away from what it was when Rajoy won in 2011, but the momentum upwards is not being interrupted.
As much as Rajoy can be satisfied with this rise, he can also take note of PSOE's further decline with satisfaction. The poll reveals a 3.3% drop since June: now only 19.4%, and Unidos Podemos, despite seemingly intent on splitting themselves asunder (the Podemos element, that is), have experienced their own increase to 22.5%. The poll's finding therefore makes the words of PSOE's Mario Jiménez sound foolhardy. He has been the one saying that the party will place the budget amendment. He has also said that if Rajoy does choose to call an election, he will "not catch PSOE off-guard". He might not, but PSOE being on-guard holds absolutely no guarantee of an improved electoral performance: quite the contrary in fact.
Then there is the Podemos question. Around the same time as the PP holds its congress next month (Aznar will not be attending), Podemos have theirs. The war between the Iglesias and Errejón factions will probably end in defeat for Errejón. Even if it were the other way (and Iglesias has said he will step down, if this is the result), what will happen? It's possible that nothing will, but the battle lines are entrenched. If Podemos were to split, then the left as a whole in Spain will be split more than it already is. This would only bolster Rajoy further, he - and the PP's poll rating - having gained as a result of the long hiatus before the October investiture; this hiatus having been partly the consequence of the left's inability to arrive at anything approaching consensus.
Aznar is an irritation. The budget issue is more of an aggravation. But even another election would see Rajoy secure. There's no one challenging him.
There was, however, an unwelcome piece of news to disturb him over Christmas. He received a phone call from Tony's little friend (the Tony being Blair and the friendship dating back to the Iraq War). The permanently jet-black-haired José María Aznar phoned Rajoy to tell him that he was relinquishing his post as honorary president of the Partido Popular. He will now only be like any other member of the party. Not that he can ever be that; he remains in the PP undergrowth, a diminutively towering presence, prepared at any moment to spring out and spray dye in casting doubts on the Rajoy way forward.
Aznar and Rajoy were once good friends. Wikileaks, though, showed that Aznar was not entirely convinced about Rajoy. This lack of conviction would seem to have lessened still over the years. The phone call would have come as a surprise. They have barely been on speaking terms. The PP hierarchy as a whole was surprised, but for a different reason. Aznar's decision hadn't been expected. But now that it has been delivered, Aznar and his foundation, which formally split from the PP in October, can act independently: a thorn in Rajoy's side, if Aznar so chooses.
Former and defeated leaders in Spain don't do the honourable thing and disappear. Felipe González was hardly a neutral figure in the moves which led to the purging of Pedro Sánchez as PSOE leader. Likewise, Aznar is there, forever lingering and lurking, his discontent with Rajoy seemingly more personal than based on pure politics or policies.
The breach might therefore not augur well for Rajoy, who has discovered - to everyone's lesser surprise than the Aznar manoeuvre - that PSOE is unwilling to give him a clear run with the 2017 budget. In fact, it is placing an enormous obstacle in the way and seems likely to present an amendment to the entire budget. Ultimately, this could mean yet another election.
So Rajoy may instead have been spluttering as he drew on his havana. If PSOE, emboldened despite its enfeebled state by having granted Rajoy licence to stay on as premier, now chooses to exploit this magnanimity and challenge the budget to the point of mortality, it will be a case of close but no cigar for the latest Rajoy project.
However, there is what the public thinks, and it is this which can allow Rajoy his moments of tranquil puffing. The latest poll by Sigma Dos for "El Mundo" shows the PP to still be in the ascendant. The rating, compared with the June election, has increased by 1.8% to 34.8%. It remains a distance away from what it was when Rajoy won in 2011, but the momentum upwards is not being interrupted.
As much as Rajoy can be satisfied with this rise, he can also take note of PSOE's further decline with satisfaction. The poll reveals a 3.3% drop since June: now only 19.4%, and Unidos Podemos, despite seemingly intent on splitting themselves asunder (the Podemos element, that is), have experienced their own increase to 22.5%. The poll's finding therefore makes the words of PSOE's Mario Jiménez sound foolhardy. He has been the one saying that the party will place the budget amendment. He has also said that if Rajoy does choose to call an election, he will "not catch PSOE off-guard". He might not, but PSOE being on-guard holds absolutely no guarantee of an improved electoral performance: quite the contrary in fact.
Then there is the Podemos question. Around the same time as the PP holds its congress next month (Aznar will not be attending), Podemos have theirs. The war between the Iglesias and Errejón factions will probably end in defeat for Errejón. Even if it were the other way (and Iglesias has said he will step down, if this is the result), what will happen? It's possible that nothing will, but the battle lines are entrenched. If Podemos were to split, then the left as a whole in Spain will be split more than it already is. This would only bolster Rajoy further, he - and the PP's poll rating - having gained as a result of the long hiatus before the October investiture; this hiatus having been partly the consequence of the left's inability to arrive at anything approaching consensus.
Aznar is an irritation. The budget issue is more of an aggravation. But even another election would see Rajoy secure. There's no one challenging him.
Monday, February 23, 2015
There May Be Chaos Ahead
Last October, the results of an opinion poll of voting intentions for the regional elections this May led me to suggest that government in the Balearics could be plunged into chaos and that the islands could be ungovernable. A new poll, for "Ultima Hora", hasn't altered my opinion and nor has it given any clearer indication as to the make-up of possible coalitions; the poll establishes that there would have to be a coalition of some style, as no one party would have a majority.
Three months away from the elections, the Partido Popular has yet to show signs of sufficient enough support returning to enable it to retain its current parliamentary majority. Deprived of friends and allies among other parties, it will, on current polling evidence, be booted out of government. The assumption of a pact of leftist parties forming the next government holds good, but what might this pact look like?
On the basis of the higher estimates of numbers of parliamentary deputies, an amalgam of PSOE (plus its Formentera wing), Podemos and Més would have 33 seats, three more than the 30 needed to form a majority. Lower estimates make things messier, so in order to avoid over-complicating hypotheses, let's accept the higher ones. PSOE would have the most seats and a one per cent greater share of the vote than Podemos. Francina Armengol would become president with Podemos and Més her partners.
This is the neat and easy way of looking at the poll, but neat and easy may not be how things will be, and that is because of Podemos. Much has been said about Podemos being an unknown quantity, but this is the unknown of policy. There is another unknown. How would Podemos behave in government?
This is no idle question because even entering into a coalition presents Podemos with a philosophical difficulty. Essentially, it rejects all established political parties, but this rejection is all but absolute when it comes to the "casta", the two main parties - PSOE and the PP. A coalition with PSOE would run counter to one of its principal reasons for existing - which is to break the duopoly of what is seen as a corrupt two-party system. Getting into bed with PSOE could, probably will be construed as hypocritical, but what's the alternative? Does Podemos turn down advances to form a coalition? If it does, why is it bothering with putting up candidates? Moreover, were it to, it would fail those who vote for it. If it gains 12 or 13 seats, as the poll suggests, its democratic responsibility would require it to swallow its philosophy.
This said, we have already begun to see that Podemos can be chameleon-like and pragmatic. Its distaste for the casta would be put aside in order to have a place at the governmental table. But then what? Here is the real unknown because of how Podemos operates.
The extent of its participative democracy can be exaggerated, as it has its citizens' councils to make final decisions, but the principle of participation is a Podemos fundamental. Might it abandon it as it would also abandon its rejection of the casta? Possibly, but if not, then how, when it holds places in parliament and a cabinet, is government going to function? It is here, I would suggest, that lie the roots of potential chaos. The portents are already not that good when one considers resignations and differences that have cropped up in various Podemos councils. And there would also be, in effect, differing systems of decision-making for a coalition government - parliament, the cabinet and the Podemos participators. How are these reconciled? Can they be?
It is Més, I believe, who would hold the key to a coalition. Given the experience of some of its senior people, I could see it acting as a type of peacemaker, but for how long could such a coalition hold together? We might all be surprised, and a coalition might work perfectly well, but there has to be a fear that at some point it would collapse and so would the government.
So much for the left, what about the right? The higher estimate for the PP is 27 seats, three short of a majority. A pact with El Pi (that might amount to 30 seats) has been ruled out by El Pi's Jaume Font. If this is impossible then it will be impossible, as things stand, for the PP to carry on after May. But, there might yet be a twist. PP barons won't admit it, but if Bauzá is declared "imputado" by the judge's investigation into the granting of new pharmacies, these barons might well welcome this. Bauzá would have to stand aside. Someone else, Gabriel Company, the environment-agriculture minister, or Maria Salom, the president of the Council of Mallorca, would take over. Suddenly, clawing back those three seats might not seem impossible.
Three months away from the elections, the Partido Popular has yet to show signs of sufficient enough support returning to enable it to retain its current parliamentary majority. Deprived of friends and allies among other parties, it will, on current polling evidence, be booted out of government. The assumption of a pact of leftist parties forming the next government holds good, but what might this pact look like?
On the basis of the higher estimates of numbers of parliamentary deputies, an amalgam of PSOE (plus its Formentera wing), Podemos and Més would have 33 seats, three more than the 30 needed to form a majority. Lower estimates make things messier, so in order to avoid over-complicating hypotheses, let's accept the higher ones. PSOE would have the most seats and a one per cent greater share of the vote than Podemos. Francina Armengol would become president with Podemos and Més her partners.
This is the neat and easy way of looking at the poll, but neat and easy may not be how things will be, and that is because of Podemos. Much has been said about Podemos being an unknown quantity, but this is the unknown of policy. There is another unknown. How would Podemos behave in government?
This is no idle question because even entering into a coalition presents Podemos with a philosophical difficulty. Essentially, it rejects all established political parties, but this rejection is all but absolute when it comes to the "casta", the two main parties - PSOE and the PP. A coalition with PSOE would run counter to one of its principal reasons for existing - which is to break the duopoly of what is seen as a corrupt two-party system. Getting into bed with PSOE could, probably will be construed as hypocritical, but what's the alternative? Does Podemos turn down advances to form a coalition? If it does, why is it bothering with putting up candidates? Moreover, were it to, it would fail those who vote for it. If it gains 12 or 13 seats, as the poll suggests, its democratic responsibility would require it to swallow its philosophy.
This said, we have already begun to see that Podemos can be chameleon-like and pragmatic. Its distaste for the casta would be put aside in order to have a place at the governmental table. But then what? Here is the real unknown because of how Podemos operates.
The extent of its participative democracy can be exaggerated, as it has its citizens' councils to make final decisions, but the principle of participation is a Podemos fundamental. Might it abandon it as it would also abandon its rejection of the casta? Possibly, but if not, then how, when it holds places in parliament and a cabinet, is government going to function? It is here, I would suggest, that lie the roots of potential chaos. The portents are already not that good when one considers resignations and differences that have cropped up in various Podemos councils. And there would also be, in effect, differing systems of decision-making for a coalition government - parliament, the cabinet and the Podemos participators. How are these reconciled? Can they be?
It is Més, I believe, who would hold the key to a coalition. Given the experience of some of its senior people, I could see it acting as a type of peacemaker, but for how long could such a coalition hold together? We might all be surprised, and a coalition might work perfectly well, but there has to be a fear that at some point it would collapse and so would the government.
So much for the left, what about the right? The higher estimate for the PP is 27 seats, three short of a majority. A pact with El Pi (that might amount to 30 seats) has been ruled out by El Pi's Jaume Font. If this is impossible then it will be impossible, as things stand, for the PP to carry on after May. But, there might yet be a twist. PP barons won't admit it, but if Bauzá is declared "imputado" by the judge's investigation into the granting of new pharmacies, these barons might well welcome this. Bauzá would have to stand aside. Someone else, Gabriel Company, the environment-agriculture minister, or Maria Salom, the president of the Council of Mallorca, would take over. Suddenly, clawing back those three seats might not seem impossible.
Monday, June 30, 2014
There May Be Chaos Ahead: Opinion poll
There is a great deal of water to yet pass under the bridge before next spring's regional elections, but if the polls are to be believed, the late-summer and winter storms will flood political torrents that pour under "puentes" of Mallorca, wash away the stagnant and accumulated detritus, cleanse and purify them with a collective can-do but also leave a mud so deep that some are stuck or sink. The poll just conducted by the Balearics Institute of Social Studies on behalf of "Ultima Hora" will mean José Ramón Bauzá and the PP thrashing around in quicksand, desperately grabbing at any passing safety rope in an attempt to haul themselves out of a political mire, while Francina Armengol and PSOE struggle up to the neck in fear that they will be consumed by the mucky waters of time and disappear from view. Glug. Glug.
This is what the poll suggests how the Balearics parliament would look after the next election: the PP, 27 seats, down eight; PSOE, 14 seats, down four; the Més leftist, nationalist, greenist group with six seats, up one; and in fourth spot, up five from zero, would be Podemos. Yes we can. With the remaining seven seats distributed between the United Left, El Pi, the UPyD and one for the Formentera wing of PSOE, the picture which would emerge, were this poll to be replicated at the elections, would be one of such potential chaos that the Balearics might be all but ungovernable.
The maths are such that a coalition would have to be formed in order to get a minimum of thirty seats and thus form a majority. For the PP, it might seem that it could derive support from the centrist UPyD and the regio-nationalist-conservative El Pi. They could bump the number up to thirty, but though certain aspects of their political philosophies might coincide, they are wide apart in other regards. The UpyD, a relatively new party, wants to be an alternative to the two-party system. How could it sell out that idea and join with the PP? Jaume Font, the leader of El Pi, is said to have mended bridges with Bauzá but then there is Antoni Pastor, who most certainly has not. El Pi, in any event, totally rejects Bauzá language policy and attitude towards regionalism.
If the PP were unable to gather partners around it, then what of a PSOE-led coalition? Well, it's possible but would require the support of virtually all the other parties including, and most significantly, Podemos. It, rather like the UPyD but totally unlike it in character, wants to break the two-party system. The idea of it ever forming part of a coalition of which PSOE were a part seems almost inconceivable. But then Podemos hasn't as yet in its very brief existence been confronted with "realpolitik", one which strikes at its very purpose. If it has ambitions of being a legitimate political force, then it is going to have to compromise. Even if it does or it doesn't, one feels that its success at the European elections merely sowed the seeds of its own destruction.
For PSOE the outlook is bleak. The confirmation of Francina Armengol as leader has done nothing to improve its prospects, and there was never any good reason to believe that her victory would improve them. Armengol was president of the Council of Mallorca under the last PSOE-led administration. People don't forget. Or rather, they would prefer to forget those who are discredited or representative of previous failure. Armengol offers nothing new, but PSOE badly needs to be seen as renewed.
The PP, which has been disintegrating into fragments of pro- and anti-Catalan and pro- and anti-regionalism, could yet retrieve the situation. There will be those in the party who know or think they know how this could be done. Would there be a coup to oust Bauzá? Even if there were, who would take over? The party might just be so damaged that it can't retrieve the situation whoever leads it. Not next year anyway.
All this leaves one other option, assuming a grand coalition between the PP and PSOE would be a total non-starter, and this is that a majority coalition cannot be formed by either side. It has not been untypical for a major party to fail to get a majority, but in these instances there has been sufficient support to create a majority through coalition. The possibility exists, however, that even this might not be achievable next year. Town halls in Mallorca can and do operate with minority administrations, but could a government? It has happened, but only because the Unió Mallorquina was thrown out of the PSOE 2007-2011 pact in the final year of that administration.
Things can change between now and next spring, but if they don't, then the Balearics could end up without a government.
Index for June 2014
Abdication of KIng Juan Carlos - 3 June 2014, 7 June 2014
Archaeology tourism route - 25 June 2014
Balearics' education conflict - 23 June 2014
Bellevue and tourist treatment - 4 June 2014
Biniali and traditional games - 1 June 2014
Brochures - 20 June 2014
Civil War: exhumation of bodies - 17 June 2014
Compatibility: President Bauzá - 15 June 2014
Flying car ferries - 10 June 2014
Gaming law in Balearics - 24 June 2014
Hoteliers federation falling out - 2 June 2014
Jaume Sastre and President Bauzá - 16 June 2014
King Felipe - 21 June 2014
La Gola, Puerto Pollensa - 13 June 2014
Magalluf not like northern resorts - 6 June 2014
Mallorca Song Festival - 14 June 2014
Miquel dels Sants Oliver - 18 June 2014
Pere Capellà - 19 June 2014
Princess Cristina and Judge Castro - 29 June 2014
Regional election opinion poll - 30 June 2014
Roads, buses and Mallorca's history - 9 June 2014
Sant Joan and midsummer - 22 June 2014
Selva "herbes" fair - 8 June 2014
Shipping history in Mallorca - 11 June 2014
Spanish students on Mallorcan holidays - 26 June 2014, 27 June 2014
Surfing - 5 June 2014
Tourism strategy in Mallorca - 28 June 2014
World Cup - 12 June 2014
This is what the poll suggests how the Balearics parliament would look after the next election: the PP, 27 seats, down eight; PSOE, 14 seats, down four; the Més leftist, nationalist, greenist group with six seats, up one; and in fourth spot, up five from zero, would be Podemos. Yes we can. With the remaining seven seats distributed between the United Left, El Pi, the UPyD and one for the Formentera wing of PSOE, the picture which would emerge, were this poll to be replicated at the elections, would be one of such potential chaos that the Balearics might be all but ungovernable.
The maths are such that a coalition would have to be formed in order to get a minimum of thirty seats and thus form a majority. For the PP, it might seem that it could derive support from the centrist UPyD and the regio-nationalist-conservative El Pi. They could bump the number up to thirty, but though certain aspects of their political philosophies might coincide, they are wide apart in other regards. The UpyD, a relatively new party, wants to be an alternative to the two-party system. How could it sell out that idea and join with the PP? Jaume Font, the leader of El Pi, is said to have mended bridges with Bauzá but then there is Antoni Pastor, who most certainly has not. El Pi, in any event, totally rejects Bauzá language policy and attitude towards regionalism.
If the PP were unable to gather partners around it, then what of a PSOE-led coalition? Well, it's possible but would require the support of virtually all the other parties including, and most significantly, Podemos. It, rather like the UPyD but totally unlike it in character, wants to break the two-party system. The idea of it ever forming part of a coalition of which PSOE were a part seems almost inconceivable. But then Podemos hasn't as yet in its very brief existence been confronted with "realpolitik", one which strikes at its very purpose. If it has ambitions of being a legitimate political force, then it is going to have to compromise. Even if it does or it doesn't, one feels that its success at the European elections merely sowed the seeds of its own destruction.
For PSOE the outlook is bleak. The confirmation of Francina Armengol as leader has done nothing to improve its prospects, and there was never any good reason to believe that her victory would improve them. Armengol was president of the Council of Mallorca under the last PSOE-led administration. People don't forget. Or rather, they would prefer to forget those who are discredited or representative of previous failure. Armengol offers nothing new, but PSOE badly needs to be seen as renewed.
The PP, which has been disintegrating into fragments of pro- and anti-Catalan and pro- and anti-regionalism, could yet retrieve the situation. There will be those in the party who know or think they know how this could be done. Would there be a coup to oust Bauzá? Even if there were, who would take over? The party might just be so damaged that it can't retrieve the situation whoever leads it. Not next year anyway.
All this leaves one other option, assuming a grand coalition between the PP and PSOE would be a total non-starter, and this is that a majority coalition cannot be formed by either side. It has not been untypical for a major party to fail to get a majority, but in these instances there has been sufficient support to create a majority through coalition. The possibility exists, however, that even this might not be achievable next year. Town halls in Mallorca can and do operate with minority administrations, but could a government? It has happened, but only because the Unió Mallorquina was thrown out of the PSOE 2007-2011 pact in the final year of that administration.
Things can change between now and next spring, but if they don't, then the Balearics could end up without a government.
Index for June 2014
Abdication of KIng Juan Carlos - 3 June 2014, 7 June 2014
Archaeology tourism route - 25 June 2014
Balearics' education conflict - 23 June 2014
Bellevue and tourist treatment - 4 June 2014
Biniali and traditional games - 1 June 2014
Brochures - 20 June 2014
Civil War: exhumation of bodies - 17 June 2014
Compatibility: President Bauzá - 15 June 2014
Flying car ferries - 10 June 2014
Gaming law in Balearics - 24 June 2014
Hoteliers federation falling out - 2 June 2014
Jaume Sastre and President Bauzá - 16 June 2014
King Felipe - 21 June 2014
La Gola, Puerto Pollensa - 13 June 2014
Magalluf not like northern resorts - 6 June 2014
Mallorca Song Festival - 14 June 2014
Miquel dels Sants Oliver - 18 June 2014
Pere Capellà - 19 June 2014
Princess Cristina and Judge Castro - 29 June 2014
Regional election opinion poll - 30 June 2014
Roads, buses and Mallorca's history - 9 June 2014
Sant Joan and midsummer - 22 June 2014
Selva "herbes" fair - 8 June 2014
Shipping history in Mallorca - 11 June 2014
Spanish students on Mallorcan holidays - 26 June 2014, 27 June 2014
Surfing - 5 June 2014
Tourism strategy in Mallorca - 28 June 2014
World Cup - 12 June 2014
Tuesday, July 02, 2013
Two Years At A Time: Bauzá mid-term blues
It is only just over two years since José Ramón Bauzá became president of the Balearics and the Partido Popular swept to power (parties which enjoy large electoral wins always do sweep to power, so do please excuse the cliché). Just over two years on and so just under two years before we go through the whole electoral rigmarole again. And when we do, guess what? Bauzá may well be out of a job, if other matters haven't intervened in the meantime to require the issuing of the presidential P45.
The poll at the weekend for "Ultima Hora" suggests that the PP would lose six or seven parliamentary seats. This in itself wouldn't automatically mean it would lose power. It would still have more deputies than any other party, but it would lose its majority and be forced to find a coalition partner or partners in order to continue in power. Permutations that the PP might be able to cobble together would be far more straightforward than any that the main opposition PSOE could come up with. According to the poll, for it to be able to come back to power would require putting together a hotch-potch of such dog's breakfast proportions that any government it were to head would surely be unworkable.
So, it isn't all bad news for Joe Ray. The main problem he would have, however, would be persuading the more likely candidates in the centre to come into the governmental bed and nestle under the sheets with someone (i.e. him) who they might prefer not to be in the same bedroom as, let alone the same bed. It is said that there has been some kissing and making up between Bauzá and Jaume Font, leader of the regionalist El Pi, but behind every font there is a tap that might turn off the water, and in Font's case that is Antoni Pastor, now with his feet well under the El Pi table. Pastor, even at arm's distance, and Bauzá could only make imperfect bedfellows; it's hard to see Font spurning the shepherdly, pastoral love of the recently integrated-into-the-El Pi Pastor in favour of a dalliance with the wolf of the PP. Even less likely, unless it wanted to blow its still only shortlived political existence (in fact, its whole credibility) out of the water, would be an alliance with the UPyD. Bauzá may well, therefore, find himself caught short.
Indeed, were the poll to prove to be an accurate forecast of the 2015 election, the Balearics could find themselves to be politically unmanageable, though whether anyone would notice any difference might be unlikely.
The slump in the PP's support has been inevitable. Popular by name it may be, but unpopular by policies it has become. Not that it had any real choice when it came to some of them. But it has had a choice with others. If it hadn't been going around putting up certain backs, like the Catalan lobby, it might just now find itself looking forward to holding onto a majority.
The government has got itself into a right old mess. One cause of this mess has been the health policy. Partly dictated by national government, the handling of the Alpha Pam affair was more than just an embarrassment. The health minister, Martí Sansaloni, may yet find himself facing some form of charge, if those groups who have been denouncing him have their way. To compound the problem raised by the treatment of immigrants without the right health-service credentials (or any credentials), Sansaloni's predecessor at the ministry (Sansaloni is of course the third health minister in just over two years) has been looking at establishing a help system for immigrants. He, Antoni Mesquida, is not alone in distancing himself from his party's policies and attitudes.
Then there has been the debacle with the green taxes. The government was forced into backing down. Threatened with the courts by the might of the retailers, it squirmed its way out by saying that now (i.e. this summer) was not the time for the taxes, which was complete nonsense. No time is the right time, while the debacle just added to the sense of ad-hockery that has surrounded tax policy since Bauzá became president. Another tax, that on petrol, which is supposed to be used to help fund the islands' health service, has, so says the head of a consumer association, been going to pay off debts and salaries of public officials.
On top of all this, there are problems rather closer to home for the president and for one notable member of his cabinet. We still await the findings of the Balearics High Court in respect of accusations of incompatibility between the president's business interests and his position as president. And now we have the tourism minister, Carlos Delgado, facing possible indictment in the Radio Calvia affair and the possibility of the national interior ministry taking a view on the insults he levelled against the Guardia Civil. He really should know better than to allude to a whoring, heavy-drinking, sexist, fascist, police film character when mentioning the Guardia in the same breath.
So, with all this, we now look forward to the elections in two years time. But if the poll does prove to be accurate and the Balearics become politically unmanageable, then no, we probably wouldn't notice any difference.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
The poll at the weekend for "Ultima Hora" suggests that the PP would lose six or seven parliamentary seats. This in itself wouldn't automatically mean it would lose power. It would still have more deputies than any other party, but it would lose its majority and be forced to find a coalition partner or partners in order to continue in power. Permutations that the PP might be able to cobble together would be far more straightforward than any that the main opposition PSOE could come up with. According to the poll, for it to be able to come back to power would require putting together a hotch-potch of such dog's breakfast proportions that any government it were to head would surely be unworkable.
So, it isn't all bad news for Joe Ray. The main problem he would have, however, would be persuading the more likely candidates in the centre to come into the governmental bed and nestle under the sheets with someone (i.e. him) who they might prefer not to be in the same bedroom as, let alone the same bed. It is said that there has been some kissing and making up between Bauzá and Jaume Font, leader of the regionalist El Pi, but behind every font there is a tap that might turn off the water, and in Font's case that is Antoni Pastor, now with his feet well under the El Pi table. Pastor, even at arm's distance, and Bauzá could only make imperfect bedfellows; it's hard to see Font spurning the shepherdly, pastoral love of the recently integrated-into-the-El Pi Pastor in favour of a dalliance with the wolf of the PP. Even less likely, unless it wanted to blow its still only shortlived political existence (in fact, its whole credibility) out of the water, would be an alliance with the UPyD. Bauzá may well, therefore, find himself caught short.
Indeed, were the poll to prove to be an accurate forecast of the 2015 election, the Balearics could find themselves to be politically unmanageable, though whether anyone would notice any difference might be unlikely.
The slump in the PP's support has been inevitable. Popular by name it may be, but unpopular by policies it has become. Not that it had any real choice when it came to some of them. But it has had a choice with others. If it hadn't been going around putting up certain backs, like the Catalan lobby, it might just now find itself looking forward to holding onto a majority.
The government has got itself into a right old mess. One cause of this mess has been the health policy. Partly dictated by national government, the handling of the Alpha Pam affair was more than just an embarrassment. The health minister, Martí Sansaloni, may yet find himself facing some form of charge, if those groups who have been denouncing him have their way. To compound the problem raised by the treatment of immigrants without the right health-service credentials (or any credentials), Sansaloni's predecessor at the ministry (Sansaloni is of course the third health minister in just over two years) has been looking at establishing a help system for immigrants. He, Antoni Mesquida, is not alone in distancing himself from his party's policies and attitudes.
Then there has been the debacle with the green taxes. The government was forced into backing down. Threatened with the courts by the might of the retailers, it squirmed its way out by saying that now (i.e. this summer) was not the time for the taxes, which was complete nonsense. No time is the right time, while the debacle just added to the sense of ad-hockery that has surrounded tax policy since Bauzá became president. Another tax, that on petrol, which is supposed to be used to help fund the islands' health service, has, so says the head of a consumer association, been going to pay off debts and salaries of public officials.
On top of all this, there are problems rather closer to home for the president and for one notable member of his cabinet. We still await the findings of the Balearics High Court in respect of accusations of incompatibility between the president's business interests and his position as president. And now we have the tourism minister, Carlos Delgado, facing possible indictment in the Radio Calvia affair and the possibility of the national interior ministry taking a view on the insults he levelled against the Guardia Civil. He really should know better than to allude to a whoring, heavy-drinking, sexist, fascist, police film character when mentioning the Guardia in the same breath.
So, with all this, we now look forward to the elections in two years time. But if the poll does prove to be accurate and the Balearics become politically unmanageable, then no, we probably wouldn't notice any difference.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Sunday, December 30, 2012
MALLORCA TODAY - PP in the Balearics would lose majority - poll
"Ultima Hora" reports the findings of an opinion poll which suggests that were there to be an election the Partido Popular would lose seven seats in the Balearic parliament, which would mean that it would also lose its clear majority. PSOE (PSIB) would remain where it is, the winners (marginally) being the PSM (Majorcan socialists), the El Pi and the UPyD.
See more: Ultima Hora
See more: Ultima Hora
Sunday, March 18, 2012
MALLORCA TODAY - Public support for Balearics' cuts
According to an opinion poll conducted on behalf of "Ultima Hora", a majority of Balearic islanders support the cuts being implemented by the regional government, though the majority is only small (52% of the population). A stronger majority (61%) is against the general strike planned for 29 March.
In a different poll, one by the research organisation Gadeso, results suggest that the Partido Popular government, were there to be another election now, would still hold onto power.
See more: Ultima Hora
And: Diario de Mallorca
In a different poll, one by the research organisation Gadeso, results suggest that the Partido Popular government, were there to be another election now, would still hold onto power.
See more: Ultima Hora
And: Diario de Mallorca
Sunday, March 11, 2012
MALLORCA TODAY - Public disagree with general strike
Might the Spanish general strike for 29 March planned by the main CCOO and UGT unions be as much of a damp squib as the last one in September 2010? A poll for "El País" suggests it might be: El País English
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Not The Stupid Economy: Mallorca's elections and opinion polls
Local elections in Mallorca and the Balearics are to be held next spring. An opinion poll conducted on behalf of "Ultima Hora" suggests that the current main opposition party, the Partido Popular, will win with an overall majority, thus negating the need for a coalition pact.
Since regional autonomy in the early '80s, the PP has traditionally been the party of Balearics government, firstly as the Coalición Popular and then as the PP in its own right. It lost for the first time in 1999, to a pact headed by the current socialist (PSOE/PSIB*) president Francesc Antich, regained an overall majority in 2003, under the disgraced ex-president Jaume Matas, and then lost out again to an Antich coalition in 2007, despite receiving more votes than other parties. For the PP to now seemingly be heading towards electoral victory suggests a re-establishment of Mallorca and the islands' social and political norm - conservatism.
While one can nuance the poll as being an expression of dissatisfaction with socialist government and management of the economic crisis, both at the local and the national level, the poll also reveals that the PSOE is on target to gain more of a share of the vote. It is the nationalist party, the Unió Mallorquina, which stands to lose most at the next election; it faces virtual oblivion. This, therefore, begs a question as to the influence of political corruption on voter intention. The UM has been deeply mired in scandal over the past couple of years, but the PP has been similarly tainted by the anti-corruption cases that have gone right to the top of its last administration - to Jaume Matas. The socialists, on the other hand, have escaped the sleaze, just about.
So does the poll simply reflect a reversion to the status quo of the two dominant parties - the PP and PSOE - or is there also the influence of corruption?
The PP has been looking to clean up its act, but an almighty row has erupted within its ranks as a result. Its leader and presidential candidate, José Ramón Bauza, has stated that any politician implicated in a scandal will not stand in the coming elections, which might rule all of them out, you might think. Bauza has gone so far as to say that if any charge levelled at him from his time as mayor of Marratxi were to be forthcoming, then he would step aside.
The opposition to Bauza's stance stems from what could be unjust and unproven allegations. Not every politician implicated in a corruption case is necessarily guilty. But one has an equivocal situation, because in light of all the scandals, Antich drew up an ethical code under which investigations for any alleged wrongdoing were grounds for resignation. Yet, the president, whilst supporting the position of his main political opponent in asserting that this is not "unjust", has said that he would not apply the same principle to his own party. The current socialist tourism and employment minister, Joana Barceló, has faced her own local difficulties dating back to her time at the Council of Menorca. Her case has been "archived", i.e. nothing has been proven, but Antich could be accused of double standards.
Bauza's determination to clean up the PP is laudable enough, but he opens himself and his party up to potential mischief-making. One can already hear the whispers of dirty tricks being plotted in the election machines of other parties. Bauza has another problem. And that is that some in the party believe that he has moved close to his one-time rival for the leadership of the PP, Carlos Delgado, mayor of Calvia. Moreover, it is felt that Bauza is too Madrid-centric, a possible puppet of the party's national organisation and less inclined to stand up for local Mallorcan (Balearic) interests. While he has attempted to rebut the idea that Delgado has in some way been influencing him, it might be remembered that Delgado is antipathetic towards Catalanism; he has made a virtue of not speaking Catalan.
The poll could be seen as voter support for Bauza's clean-up, but the party's in-figthing threatens to undermine his good intentions and to place an obstacle in the way of its resuming its role as the, if you will, natural party of Balearics government. Bauza and his party may already have given the opponents an own goal because of the alleged closeness to Madrid; the UM and the socialists will exploit it for all its worth. Bauza, however, could respond by accusing Antich of hypocrisy. The elections should be about the key issue of the economy, but they're likely to be overshadowed by the smell of corruption and the parochialism of insular, nationalist interests.
* Note: The PSOE is the socialist party at national level; the PSIB is the Balearics version.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Since regional autonomy in the early '80s, the PP has traditionally been the party of Balearics government, firstly as the Coalición Popular and then as the PP in its own right. It lost for the first time in 1999, to a pact headed by the current socialist (PSOE/PSIB*) president Francesc Antich, regained an overall majority in 2003, under the disgraced ex-president Jaume Matas, and then lost out again to an Antich coalition in 2007, despite receiving more votes than other parties. For the PP to now seemingly be heading towards electoral victory suggests a re-establishment of Mallorca and the islands' social and political norm - conservatism.
While one can nuance the poll as being an expression of dissatisfaction with socialist government and management of the economic crisis, both at the local and the national level, the poll also reveals that the PSOE is on target to gain more of a share of the vote. It is the nationalist party, the Unió Mallorquina, which stands to lose most at the next election; it faces virtual oblivion. This, therefore, begs a question as to the influence of political corruption on voter intention. The UM has been deeply mired in scandal over the past couple of years, but the PP has been similarly tainted by the anti-corruption cases that have gone right to the top of its last administration - to Jaume Matas. The socialists, on the other hand, have escaped the sleaze, just about.
So does the poll simply reflect a reversion to the status quo of the two dominant parties - the PP and PSOE - or is there also the influence of corruption?
The PP has been looking to clean up its act, but an almighty row has erupted within its ranks as a result. Its leader and presidential candidate, José Ramón Bauza, has stated that any politician implicated in a scandal will not stand in the coming elections, which might rule all of them out, you might think. Bauza has gone so far as to say that if any charge levelled at him from his time as mayor of Marratxi were to be forthcoming, then he would step aside.
The opposition to Bauza's stance stems from what could be unjust and unproven allegations. Not every politician implicated in a corruption case is necessarily guilty. But one has an equivocal situation, because in light of all the scandals, Antich drew up an ethical code under which investigations for any alleged wrongdoing were grounds for resignation. Yet, the president, whilst supporting the position of his main political opponent in asserting that this is not "unjust", has said that he would not apply the same principle to his own party. The current socialist tourism and employment minister, Joana Barceló, has faced her own local difficulties dating back to her time at the Council of Menorca. Her case has been "archived", i.e. nothing has been proven, but Antich could be accused of double standards.
Bauza's determination to clean up the PP is laudable enough, but he opens himself and his party up to potential mischief-making. One can already hear the whispers of dirty tricks being plotted in the election machines of other parties. Bauza has another problem. And that is that some in the party believe that he has moved close to his one-time rival for the leadership of the PP, Carlos Delgado, mayor of Calvia. Moreover, it is felt that Bauza is too Madrid-centric, a possible puppet of the party's national organisation and less inclined to stand up for local Mallorcan (Balearic) interests. While he has attempted to rebut the idea that Delgado has in some way been influencing him, it might be remembered that Delgado is antipathetic towards Catalanism; he has made a virtue of not speaking Catalan.
The poll could be seen as voter support for Bauza's clean-up, but the party's in-figthing threatens to undermine his good intentions and to place an obstacle in the way of its resuming its role as the, if you will, natural party of Balearics government. Bauza and his party may already have given the opponents an own goal because of the alleged closeness to Madrid; the UM and the socialists will exploit it for all its worth. Bauza, however, could respond by accusing Antich of hypocrisy. The elections should be about the key issue of the economy, but they're likely to be overshadowed by the smell of corruption and the parochialism of insular, nationalist interests.
* Note: The PSOE is the socialist party at national level; the PSIB is the Balearics version.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
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