There May Be Chaos Ahead

Last October, the results of an opinion poll of voting intentions for the regional elections this May led me to suggest that government in the Balearics could be plunged into chaos and that the islands could be ungovernable. A new poll, for "Ultima Hora", hasn't altered my opinion and nor has it given any clearer indication as to the make-up of possible coalitions; the poll establishes that there would have to be a coalition of some style, as no one party would have a majority.

Three months away from the elections, the Partido Popular has yet to show signs of sufficient enough support returning to enable it to retain its current parliamentary majority. Deprived of friends and allies among other parties, it will, on current polling evidence, be booted out of government. The assumption of a pact of leftist parties forming the next government holds good, but what might this pact look like?

On the basis of the higher estimates of numbers of parliamentary deputies, an amalgam of PSOE (plus its Formentera wing), Podemos and Més would have 33 seats, three more than the 30 needed to form a majority. Lower estimates make things messier, so in order to avoid over-complicating hypotheses, let's accept the higher ones. PSOE would have the most seats and a one per cent greater share of the vote than Podemos. Francina Armengol would become president with Podemos and Més her partners.

This is the neat and easy way of looking at the poll, but neat and easy may not be how things will be, and that is because of Podemos. Much has been said about Podemos being an unknown quantity, but this is the unknown of policy. There is another unknown. How would Podemos behave in government?

This is no idle question because even entering into a coalition presents Podemos with a philosophical difficulty. Essentially, it rejects all established political parties, but this rejection is all but absolute when it comes to the "casta", the two main parties - PSOE and the PP. A coalition with PSOE would run counter to one of its principal reasons for existing - which is to break the duopoly of what is seen as a corrupt two-party system. Getting into bed with PSOE could, probably will be construed as hypocritical, but what's the alternative? Does Podemos turn down advances to form a coalition? If it does, why is it bothering with putting up candidates? Moreover, were it to, it would fail those who vote for it. If it gains 12 or 13 seats, as the poll suggests, its democratic responsibility would require it to swallow its philosophy.

This said, we have already begun to see that Podemos can be chameleon-like and pragmatic. Its distaste for the casta would be put aside in order to have a place at the governmental table. But then what? Here is the real unknown because of how Podemos operates.

The extent of its participative democracy can be exaggerated, as it has its citizens' councils to make final decisions, but the principle of participation is a Podemos fundamental. Might it abandon it as it would also abandon its rejection of the casta? Possibly, but if not, then how, when it holds places in parliament and a cabinet, is government going to function? It is here, I would suggest, that lie the roots of potential chaos. The portents are already not that good when one considers resignations and differences that have cropped up in various Podemos councils. And there would also be, in effect, differing systems of decision-making for a coalition government - parliament, the cabinet and the Podemos participators. How are these reconciled? Can they be?

It is Més, I believe, who would hold the key to a coalition. Given the experience of some of its senior people, I could see it acting as a type of peacemaker, but for how long could such a coalition hold together? We might all be surprised, and a coalition might work perfectly well, but there has to be a fear that at some point it would collapse and so would the government.

So much for the left, what about the right? The higher estimate for the PP is 27 seats, three short of a majority. A pact with El Pi (that might amount to 30 seats) has been ruled out by El Pi's Jaume Font. If this is impossible then it will be impossible, as things stand, for the PP to carry on after May. But, there might yet be a twist. PP barons won't admit it, but if Bauzá is declared "imputado" by the judge's investigation into the granting of new pharmacies, these barons might well welcome this. Bauzá would have to stand aside. Someone else, Gabriel Company, the environment-agriculture minister, or Maria Salom, the president of the Council of Mallorca, would take over. Suddenly, clawing back those three seats might not seem impossible.