Showing posts with label El Pi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label El Pi. Show all posts

Monday, January 29, 2018

Jaume The Kingmaker

The maths are simple, give or take a plus or minus here and there. The latest poll suggests that a coalition of the right/centre-right could come into power after the 2019 election. This poll doesn't show any great movement from one last summer. It merely confirms the fact that the only party making a notable gain in the opinion polls is one of those on the loosely defined centre-right - Ciudadanos. It further verifies that PSOE and the Partido Popular are stuck in neutral and that Podemos and Més are in reverse.

If nothing else, the poll reveals that the "new politics" are very much alive. The pattern in the past with PSOE-led governments has been for the PP to come along and trounce them. There's no chance of that happening in 2019, and the PP know it. The party's spokesperson, Marga Prohens, has alluded to the fact that the PP will need a pact in order to form a government.

Unless there is some form of political earthquake between now and May next year, it is clear that there will be a coalition of one form or another. Polls, as we know, are not always accurate, but as the latest shows little movement compared with the previous, it is probably a fair reflection of wider voter sentiment.

A conclusion that the right/centre-right would automatically make an alliance, assuming they together reach the thirty seat majority threshold, is too simplistic. There are issues which bind them and those which do not. El Pi, forecast to increase by one its seats in parliament (from the current three to four), is already being cast in the role of kingmaker. Potentially, El Pi could go either way.

One of the principal differences between the PP, the C's and El Pi is the Catalan question, in particular the language and culture. El Pi was formed in a circuitous fashion. It is the amalgamation of the Convergencia, which was the remnant of the defunct and discredited Unió Mallorquina, and the Lliga Regionalista. This latter party was formed by Jaume Font, now the president of El Pi, after he left the PP. A reason for him having done so was that he was under investigation by a court (the case was later closed). The PP ethics, newly introduced by José Ramón Bauzá, barred election candidacy to anyone being investigated. Font disagreed with this, but he also disagreed with Bauzá's increasingly anti-Catalan stance prior to the 2011 election.

The PP, under new leader Biel Company, have moderated their views. The party has returned to what it once was in the Balearics: accepting of Catalan and also of regionalism. In this regard, the PP aren't distant from El Pi, which also clings to the sort of soft-nationalism that Maria Munar advocated with the UM. There is more of an issue with the C's.

One has to assume that the gains made by the C's (six or seven seats, according to the poll, compared with the current two) owe at least something to the party's stance on Catalonia and to educational matters in the Balearics. The leader of the C's, Xavier Pericay, has been a constant critic of Catalanism in education and of alleged political indoctrination (in favour of Catalan independence and republicanism) in schools. The PP might be prepared to swallow this, but El Pi might not.

For the parties of the government pact, the poll indicates a best-case scenario of them just crossing the finishing line. They would need the one seat of Gent per Formentera (pretty much assured) in order to get to the thirty majority, but this hardly represents a ringing endorsement of the government. Més and Podemos have both slipped, by a combined six seats at most in the poll. Both have their internal issues and both, so it would seem, are being penalised for a radicalism, the counterpoint to which is the rise of the C's.

PSOE, says the poll, might gain one seat and be bumped up to fifteen, but as with the PP, it is a party that finds itself suffering because of the new politics and the past errors. PSOE would be most unlikely to wish to abandon the so-called "progressive" politics enshrined in its agreements with Més and Podemos, but one still feels that it only has these agreements because it has no other choice.

If the pact parties failed to gain a majority, might El Pi be persuaded to ally with them? One can't rule anything out, but it would be hard to see how such an alliance could ever work. To take but one example, there are holiday rentals. El Pi sees things very differently.

As things stand, it is just possible that the election will lead to a minority government. El Pi would be the kingmaker. All the parties need to be nice to Jaume Font.

Saturday, February 20, 2016

Grandstanding Over The Tourist Tax Vote

Just any old week in tourism. SNAFU. Situation normal, all ... you know the rest. I feel that my assertions that the tourist tax is solely a political tax are totally vindicated. The politics have moved on from the ideology of its introduction to the ideologies of the squawking that has emanated from the political parties this week. It has been pathetic.

There was, so it seemed, just a possibility that the amendment motion to the tourist tax bill led by the Partido Popular, with Ciudadanos (C's) hanging on to their coat tails, might have been passed. Had it been, then the bill would at the very least have needed to have been redrafted, thus removing any possibility of the tax being introduced this summer. The possibility, in truth, was just grandstanding. The key party in the vote wasn't Podemos, it was El Pi. Had Jaume Font's party (three parliamentary deputies) voted with the PP and the C's, then there would have been a majority of one and the tax bill would have been booted out. This didn't happen because El Pi is, with some reservations, in favour of the tax but also because had it supported the motion, Podemos would have rescued the government and found two sacrificial lamb deputies to vote against the amendment rather than abstain. Font concluded that El Pi may as well abstain. He was surely right in his conclusion.

That is how these things work, though Podemos would no doubt deny that this would have been the outcome. But much as it has differences with the government, it could not let the bill die. Podemos needed it to fight another day, because Podemos knows best and will look, by hook or by crook, to eventually get its way.

But what were they actually squabbling about? Principally, but by no means exclusively, it was to do with a geographical allocation of revenue from the tax. On the face of it, this proposal from Podemos (and actually supported by the PP) has some merit. A major problem with it, though, has nothing directly to do with the tax. It has instead to do with the system of regional financing through national government, a system that the Balearic government has been railing against ever since it became a government. The inherent unfairness of this system is that regions with greater tax-raising capacities (such as the Balearics) effectively subsidise poorer regions. Under the tourist tax distribution proposal by Podemos, a similar situation would obtain, with tourist areas of the Balearics with greater tax-raising capacity paying for those with lesser capacity. This is one reason why the government finds it hard to go along with the proposal. It would be hypocritical for it do so.

There was also, however, the political clash within a clash. The arguments were as much about Podemos versus Més as they were Podemos versus PSOE and Més (i.e. the government). The real anger that surfaced in parliament was coming from Més. But why? Two reasons. One is that Més is a party that prides itself on its eco-credentials. These have been exposed by the tax bill, though, as the revenue is due to be used for various purposes, only one of them being the environment. Podemos, by insisting that the tax should be a genuine "eco-tax" for the environment alone, has thus taken the Més environmental moral high ground, and Més doesn't like it. There is also the fact that the tax is very much a Més baby and one of Biel Barceló's in particular. Why do you think he was so keen to get the tourism portfolio in this government? The tourist tax; that's why. Regardless of what might be said about the agreements for government signed up to by PSOE, Més and Podemos, there is still the potential for battles over one or the other's territory. Més has not taken kindly to the attempt by Podemos to usurp its domain.

It's all about the politics. Pure and simple.

Friday, June 14, 2013

MALLORCA TODAY - New agreement on Pollensa town hall government make-up

The five Partido Popular councillors at Pollensa town hall will now officially be joined by three councillors from the Convergència who are now part of the merged El Pi party, agreement having been struck between the PP and El Pi. This will, though, still mean that there is a minority administration at the town hall, though it should also mean that there is greater stability.

See more: Ultima Hora

Saturday, March 16, 2013

The Conservative Alternative: Pastor and El Pi

Mallorca's politics are rarely dull and they are so because, for a place as small as Mallorca is, its politics are disproportionately large, the consequence of so many parties, factions, self-interests and not infrequent silliness. These politics have been given a new shot in the arm by the announcement that one of the more interesting political figures on the island, Antoni Pastor, has joined the El Pi party.

Pastor, you might need reminding, is the mayor of Manacor. He is a former member of the Partido Popular who was excommunicated by the PP papacy for daring to disagree with the party's orthodoxies, primarily those to do with less than positive attitudes towards Catalan and the concept of regionalism, i.e. autonomous regional government. El Pi is the party formed from the johnny-come-latelys of Mallorca's politics, La Lliga (in existence for only a year or so prior to its merger) and the Convergència, the renamed, the rebranded, the remade former Unió Mallorquina (UM), the source of so much corruption head shaking.

El Pi's lords and masters are Jaume Font, like Pastor a former member of the PP and also like Pastor not exactly a great friend of the Balearics president, José Ramón Bauzá, and Josep Melià, who became leader of the old UM during its last, painful dying days, mainly because there wasn't anyone left or anyone who wasn't facing a rap and an appointment with m'lud. To these lords and masters must now be added the name of Pastor. Together they are a troika of political alternativism, albeit an alternativism that is inherently conservative in a Mallorcan style.

This conservatism has compelled the troika to make clear that, despite the presence within its midst of two prominent ex-PPites, El Pi is not some spin-off from the PP. It differs in its attitudes towards regionalism and Catalan. It supports both, and the PP doesn't, or doesn't appear to.

Pastor's teaming up with Font and Melià is not a complete surprise. In terms of the regionalist and Catalanist philosophies, it makes sense. In the political wilderness and due to remain there during his four years of expulsion until after the next regional elections, Pastor had nowhere to go if he wanted to really make his voice heard on the tiny Mallorcan political stage, crammed to overflowing with politics and politicians.

Joining El Pi is not a statement of personal ambition, says Pastor. All he is doing is joining, even if he is to be a vice-president of the party (Font is its president) and even if he might, though this is being denied, be being lined up as a candidate for the Balearics presidency in 2015. There is surely some ambition.

With all the travails that President Bauzá is currently enduring, those that might find him having to resign because of the alleged incompatibility between his business affairs and his position, the post of leader of the PP may well come up in the not too distant future. It had occurred to me that Pastor might just be recalled from the wilderness to fill that post. Though of different opinions to Bauzá on regionalism and Catalan, Pastor's opinions would tend to be those shared by a majority of Mallorcans. They are opinions of a conservatism that has existed since autonomy in 1983; they are ones that the PP used to hold and are ones that its veteran members still do hold. 

It will not happen now, but Pastor as PP leader would, in my opinion, have given the PP a serious boost at the next elections. At present, it cannot guarantee that it will do as well as in 2011. It may even lose, though with the main PSOE opposition as toothless and leaderless as it is, this would be hard to imagine. With Pastor, it would have provided a more sympathetic face. That chance has now gone.

My guess would be that Pastor will be a presidential candidate. He is charismatic without being populist. His opposition to Bauzá has done him no harm. Quite the contrary. He has become something of a folk hero. The PP would of course diss him for having attempted to undermine Bauzá and for having been a traitor, but I doubt many would buy this. His problem though, and it is the problem for El Pi full stop, is that the "alternative" in Mallorcan politics has never been king but only ever kingmaker. The UM was the perpetual group of Nick Cleggs, forever the makeweights in coalition. A similar role would probably await Pastor and El Pi. An alternative it may be, but it is only an alternative of conservatism.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.

Monday, December 31, 2012

Divisive: The next Balearics election

The opinion poll which shows a slump in support for the Partido Popular in the Balearics will come as little surprise. Indeed, it would be a surprise had there not been a fall in support.

As the poll indicates that the PP would lose its clear majority and only have 28 deputies after the next election, opposition parties will doubtless claim that the government of José Ramón Bauzá isn't working. But the opposition, PSOE (PSIB) in particular, is in no position to talk about a party not working. The main opposition party, its poll rating finds it stuck where it was at the last election - on the end of a good kicking. Poorly led, only fit to criticise, lacking any agenda or future vision, the party is a rabble. Yet, it should be doing far better, given that the government has staggered from one embarrassment to the next, that its educational policy is a pig's ear of unnecessarily confrontational dogma, its tax policy arrived at on the hoof, its so-called ethics being dragged through the mud of new corruption cases, its negotiations with Madrid over funding lamentable.

The PP isn't, therefore, in bad polling shape. One can be critical of certain austerity policies, such as health, but the Balearics health service was so much in debt there was no obvious alternative to taking the scalpel. Bauzá will be hoping that there will be some bounce in the economy over the next couple of years. He will hope this, but the hope remains remote.

As things stand, were the current polling to translate into performance at the 2015 election, the PP would be left in the uncomfortable position of having to form a coalition. Unless the PP were to do the unthinkable and form a pact with PSOE or the PSM socialists, it would have only two options for a partner, and neither would be attractive to either side.  

The poll gives two seats to both the UPyD and El Pi, the merged La Lliga and Convergència. El Pi, rather like the old Unió Mallorquina, from which the Convergència emerged, might assume its former role of governmental kingmakers in that the UM was typically dragged into coalitions. But there would be two big snags. One comes in the form of its leader, Jaume Font, a former PP minister and no friend of Bauzá's. The second lies with its attitudes towards regionalism and Catalan. While some of its policies would be along similar political lines to the PP, these two would not be. Were it to become a coalition partner with a PP under the current leadership, it would be an example of blatant and opportunistic power-grabbing, and one would wonder how long such a coalition could hold together.

The UPyD, a party with no baggage from the past, the great white hope of a new and cleaner politics, and one with a centrist and market-liberal doctrine, would find it hard to ally with the PP which it has criticised for its acts of favouritism. The UPyD leadership would know that it could set itself back and do itself enormous damage by getting into bed with the PP. I couldn't see it happening.

Much can of course occur between now and 2015. The PP nationally may even have scrapped regional governments by then, though to do so would require ripping up the Constitution, so it is most unlikely that it will have. One thing that might happen is that the PP locally does not improve its poll rating or even slips, while, for example, El Pi makes a gain. One cannot completely rule out pressure for change at the head of the PP, and this pressure might grow under such a scenario. A change that would potentially solve a coalition problem would involve Antoni Pastor being brought back into the PP fold and into a senior position. Would it happen? Probably not, but were it to, then Font wouldn't find himself as compromised.

The 2015 election threatens to create enormous uncertainty, and there is a further issue to bear in mind. I have previously suggested that 2015 could be the Ramon Llull election. The 700th anniversary of his death is, though there is a big question mark as to its accuracy, given as 29 June 1315, so not long after the election. If this anniversary is made much of in 2015, and it will be, even if it has to be in 2016, then the regionalist and Catalan issues will be even more to the fore than they might otherwise be. The next election could prove to be highly divisive for the Balearics. Far more than at present.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.


Index for December 2012

Beach wars - 1 December 2012
Brand Spain: Marca España - 22 December 2012
Business development - 14 December 2012
Business environmental tax - 13 December 2012
Christmas and the Mallorcans - 21 December 2012
Corporate tax evasion - 6 December 2012
Education law reform - 9 December 2012
Election in 2015 in the Balearics - 31 December 2012
Expat numbers and voting in the Balearics - 12 December 2012
Families and favouritism - 30 December 2012
Fomento del Turismo awards - 7 December 2012
Gerardo Díaz Ferrán and Marsans - 5 December 2012
Ghost of Manacor - 20 December 2012
GOB - 4 December 2012
Jazz in Spain - 11 December 2012
Knowledge of Mallorca - 8 December 2012
Language and nationalism - 15 December 2012
Letter from Mallorca 1912 - 24 December 2012
Mallorca quiz of the year - 26 December 2012
Obra Cultural Balear awards - 16 December 2012
Palacio de Congresos: returns - 19 December 2012
Pantomime - 3 December 2012
Sandcastles - 2 December 2012
Sky TV changes in Mallorca - 23 December 2012
Spain and its problems - 27 December 2012
Spanish educational reform and language - 9 December 2012
Spanish navel-gazing - 10 December 2012
Speed limits and driving - 17 December 2012
Tracy Island and Mallorca - 28 December 2012
Trafico: changing a driving licence - 29 December 2012
Travel fairs - 18 December 2012
Twelve Days Of Christmas for Mallorca - 25 December 2012

Saturday, December 15, 2012

MALLORCA TODAY - Pollensa opposition parties concerned by town hall administration

Opposition parties at Pollensa town hall are expressing their concern about the management of the council following the split between the three councillors from La Lliga, two of whom have become independent and one of whom has sided with the merged party, formed between La Lliga and the Convergència.

The division between the three is one aspect of the merger, another is the fact that the Convergència has, through the backdoor, gained influence in the administration that its councillors were not granted at the last election. There should be a new election, something that is difficult to call but not impossible.

See more: Diario de Mallorca

Friday, December 14, 2012

MALLORCA TODAY - Estrany refuses to join El Pi party in Pollensa

The divisions between members of the La Lliga and Convergència parties in Pollensa have, as expected, led to deputy mayor Malena Estrany and others from La Lliga leaving the party and therefore refusing to join the merged El Pi party formed by La Lliga and the Convergència. Estrany will now be an independent, but the decision does cause issues for the town hall administration, as indeed does the very formation of El Pi, as the Convergència were not part of the administration.

See more: Diario de Mallorca

Sunday, November 04, 2012

The Pea: The Balearics new political party

Mallorca's greatest poem was dedicated to a tree. The tree. The pine of Formentor. Miguel Costa i Llobera loved the tree. Or at least his heart did. He said so at the start of "El Pi de Formentor". His heart also envied the tree, and the tree was sublime.

All this reverence for and grafting on of human sensibility to something as unremarkable as a pine tree is difficult to understand, but don't let's underestimate poets' capacity to anthropomorphize and to simply get carried away. However, it's not as if Costa i Llobera's sentiments are shared by everyone.

A couple of years ago, researchers at Palma's university called for there to be an educative process to correct erroneous views and misapprehensions regarding pine trees. The reason for their doing so was that they had discovered that many a local hated pine trees, a position quite the opposite therefore to Costa i Llobera's.

What exactly was the cause of this hatred? Well, for a kick-off there was the fact that it is pine trees which catch fire, not that this is really a pine tree's fault (pines are not capable of spontaneous combustion), but given their volume and density, when one goes up so do hundreds more. Other causes were: the processionary caterpillar; preventing other flora from growing; being dirty, as in covering streets and clogging up drains whenever it blows or rains; provoking allergies; and for being foreign - the Aleppo pine is native but so it is to other parts of the Mediterranean.

This lengthy charge sheet against the pine tree does not seem to have been acknowledged by Proposta per les Illes, the name of the merged La Lliga Regionalista and Convergència per les Illes parties. As no one will attempt getting their mouths around this preposterous proposal of a name, the party will also be known as El Pi. The pine party. In overlooking the hatred of the pine, they have instead embraced Costa i Llobera's love. The pine - symbolic, iconic, poetic - the perfect symbol of unity for a Balearics political party; I guess this is the thinking anyway.

Having adopted the pine as its name, the party has felt compelled to adopt a logo as well. A pine it could be, but it could also be a singing stick insect carrying some nuts. Or boulders. The four splashes of red against a yellow background (all very Catalan of course) denote the four islands apparently. El Pi is a party for the whole of the Balearics, it being more than a merger of La Lliga and the Convergència; the Unió Menorquina and Es Nou Partit d'Eivissa have also muscled in on the act.

The pine party's mission in life will be as a party that is "autonomist", "of the centre" and of a "Balearic and integrationist vocation". I'm not sure that a political party can have a vocation as such, so perhaps there is something lost in translation, but whatever its vocation, the party has made it clear that it is a party for Balearics people and no one else. Not the Brits anyway.

The problem with El Pi is its pronunciation. It may mean the pine, but for the Brits it will mean something very different. There are three options: the pea, the pee or LP. Of the three, I quite like the idea of a political party calling itself the pea. The pee wouldn't work at all - political party taking the pee and all that - while LP is too much of the past. The party needs to convey a contemporary image, one of the moment. Old vinyl wouldn't do at all, so it's why the party has adopted an image so rooted in the past - Costa i Llobera's tree.

The image is also essentially introspective and insular. This may be appropriate for an "autonomist" party with a "Balearic and integrationist vocation" but it conveys no sense of being forward or outward-looking. Moreover, it is just plain daft to name a party after a bloody tree. How seriously can it be taken? The official name, Proposta per les Illes (Proposal for the islands), isn't much of a name either, but it does at least have a touch of gravitas.

Still, if tree it had to be, one thing going for the pine is that it isn't under immediate threat of extinction. The palm, one species of which is in the process of being killed off by a rotten beetle but also representative of the Balearics, would have been a bad omen for a new party. Not that the pine is a good omen.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.