And so it has begun. With inevitable predictability the British press are on the case - that of the tourist tax. Red top and broadsheet alike, The Mirror, The Mail, The Guardian, they are all flagging up a similar message, and it's one that comes with a price tag. 100 euros, 110 euros. Do I hear more? God help us when Bild and the German press work up a full head of media steam.
It isn't only the press. The poll being run on the Bulletin's website currently has an 86% rejection of the tax. Take a look at forums, such as Trip Advisor's Majorca forum, and you will find similar messages. Principally, they reject the tax, but there is also enormous uncertainty. Is it coming in next year? How much will it be? Neither you nor I can say with certainty. Nor, one fancies, can the government, despite Biel Barceló insisting that it will be "applied" in 2016.
Barceló is fast running out of any goodwill that might have surrounded the introduction of the tax, with the main pocket of this goodwill being home-grown. Opinion surveys have shown that a majority of Mallorcans - those who aren't, for instance, hoteliers - support the tax, and the majority hasn't been fractional: it has been in the order of 70%. For Barceló this could be taken as confirmation of what he referred to, in so many words, as the will of the people. As ever when politicians invoke elections and manifesto pledges, they can distort the will. Were people voting for a tourist tax?
At least Barceló can have a clear conscience. Més, his party, and Podemos both had the tax in their manifestos. PSOE weren't as clear. The tourist tax may become this government's TIL trilingual teaching, but it was a potential that was clearly known about before the elections. TIL was a post-election invention of the Partido Popular. Those who claimed it was a manifesto pledge were either ignorant, lying or both: it was not.
So, perhaps Barceló is right, up to a point, in suggesting that the tax was an election "winner", if only with some elements of the electorate. Now, however, he faces a backlash. To avoid potential European challenges and sanctions, the tax cannot discriminate. If you are a resident of Mallorca and you want to spend a weekend in a hotel, you will also pay the tax. The Spanish have a word. "Tontería." Foolishness. An utter nonsense. There has been another survey. Should residents have to pay? No, they should not. The majority is overwhelming.
It is a nonsense, and it is one to which the leader of Podemos, Alberto Jarabo, has made reference, albeit in the context of the frankly insane notion of attempting to collect the tax at airports and ports. Jarabo has said that the tax should be on those who are subsidised in their use of services, resources and infrastructure by local taxpayers. His choice of words was somewhat strident, but the sentiment, the principle is not, in my opinion, totally wrong. If there is any justification for a tourist tax, it is on the moral base of everyone, tourists included, contributing directly to resources that they consume, such as water, and to services from which they benefit, e.g. health provision.
But then Jarabo is alluding to yet another purpose for the tax, one that differs from Barceló and his undefined uses for innovation, resort improvements and the environment. It differs also from President Armengol who appears to believe that the tax will right the wrongs of Madrid's funding.
These differing interpretations are further adding to what is now becoming just as important an issue as the tax itself: the sheer uncertainty. And this uncertainty is arising at a time when bookings for 2016 will be being considered and made. For a tourism minister to allow such uncertainty borders on the irresponsible. Hence, the British press can make an estimation, just as I have, as to how much it will cost. 100 euros, 110 euros would be about right. Fourteen nights for a family of four at two euros a head would in fact be 112 euros. It may not be anything like as much if the levy is not two euros but one and if children are excluded, as is the case in Catalonia, if there is a maximum number of nights (seven), as is also the situation in Catalonia.
The backlash in the foreign press has started, as we all knew that it would start (except, it would seem, the government), and now there is also a backlash from the very people who supposedly, according to Barceló, voted for the tax. It should be ditched, and ditched quickly. It won't be because he's in too deep, but might, if it were to seek one, the local backlash actually give the government a get-out clause?
Showing posts with label Uncertainty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Uncertainty. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
Saturday, June 06, 2015
Too Much Uncertainty: Mallorca's tourism industry
The hiatus which occurs in Spain - in its towns and its regions - following elections is unsatisfactory. Stability is the key word that politicians have been uttering for weeks - those from the Partido Popular especially - yet stability is undermined even before the precise make-up of new governments is known (which may in themselves cause greater loss of stability). The hiatus period, the one the tourism industry is currently enduring, is especially damaging, or potentially so. The industry is worried, alarmed even by what type of governments might emerge, but the sooner they know, the better. Meantime, there is rumour, there is speculation, there is heightened anxiety. It's not good for business.
Four years ago of course, the hiatus was not a problem. Most parts of the country, like the Balearics, were looking forward to a Partido Popular government. In the Balearics the industry knew what was coming and it couldn't disguise its delighted expectation. Because of the current uncertainty there are pleas for the industry to be treated kindly, for the gains of the past four years not to be undermined.
Nationally, Joan Molas, the president of CEHAT, the confederation of hoteliers, has stressed the importance of not undoing the recovery that tourism has fuelled. He has also stressed problems that the hotel industry still has: not having regained levels of profitability that were being attained before crisis struck; the emergence of the alternative, "collaborative" economy and its proliferation of illegal lets; the absence of genuine plans to transform "mature" (i.e. outdated) resorts; the need for seasonal incentives, such as reduced social security payments.
On these, he may be right to worry, though not necessarily on the final item - in the Balearics, the left is inclined to introduce such incentives. But the worries, caused by the uncertainty, can lead to wrong conclusions. For example, in Barcelona, where the left-wing Ada Colau looks likely to become mayor, there was talk of her being opposed to the city's continuing the staging of the massive Mobile World Congress. In fact, she has signed a document expressing her support for it to continue to be held in Barcelona.
Nevertheless, with a new contract for the congress to be signed in Singapore next month (a contract from 2018, as Barcelona is still guaranteed it until then), there will be nervousness, as has already been demonstrated: a Meliá project being frozen, as also is one to build a hotel in the city's Deutsche Bank tower; greater urgency in trying to sell off hotels. This concern is being expressed all over the country. In the Balearics, Menorca may arguably be the worst affected island if anticipated projects are halted: the five new resorts planned by the French Zannier group, four of them of a luxury nature, might now not happen. In Mallorca, what might now occur in Playa de Palma? The building of new hotels could still be stopped. The Palacio de Congresos might fall, as in end up being demolished after all: Més had raised the possibility before the election and Més could provide the next mayor of Palma.
In Mallorca, for the moment, we can't be sure how things will turn out. On one issue, the return of the eco-tax, there does seem to be slight disagreement between PSOE, Més and Podemos. At the time of writing, the three parties' representatives had yet to discuss this and to see if it might form part of a parliamentary programme if the three can agree to a coalition. In fact, all three did refer to such a tax in their election manifestos, but for PSOE it was more the case of its being a fallback position if the general financing system for the Balearics is not improved. Neither Més nor Podemos is said to be set on when a tax might actually be introduced, but here is just one item of uncertainty that the election and the hiatus are causing. No one knows for sure about the eco-tax, and even were there to be a three-way PSOE-Més-Podemos government, they still might not know. There will be plenty in the tourism industry who will be praying that PSOE's Francina Armengol is amenable to an approach from the PP to form a coalition (unlikely though this would be).
Four years ago of course, the hiatus was not a problem. Most parts of the country, like the Balearics, were looking forward to a Partido Popular government. In the Balearics the industry knew what was coming and it couldn't disguise its delighted expectation. Because of the current uncertainty there are pleas for the industry to be treated kindly, for the gains of the past four years not to be undermined.
Nationally, Joan Molas, the president of CEHAT, the confederation of hoteliers, has stressed the importance of not undoing the recovery that tourism has fuelled. He has also stressed problems that the hotel industry still has: not having regained levels of profitability that were being attained before crisis struck; the emergence of the alternative, "collaborative" economy and its proliferation of illegal lets; the absence of genuine plans to transform "mature" (i.e. outdated) resorts; the need for seasonal incentives, such as reduced social security payments.
On these, he may be right to worry, though not necessarily on the final item - in the Balearics, the left is inclined to introduce such incentives. But the worries, caused by the uncertainty, can lead to wrong conclusions. For example, in Barcelona, where the left-wing Ada Colau looks likely to become mayor, there was talk of her being opposed to the city's continuing the staging of the massive Mobile World Congress. In fact, she has signed a document expressing her support for it to continue to be held in Barcelona.
Nevertheless, with a new contract for the congress to be signed in Singapore next month (a contract from 2018, as Barcelona is still guaranteed it until then), there will be nervousness, as has already been demonstrated: a Meliá project being frozen, as also is one to build a hotel in the city's Deutsche Bank tower; greater urgency in trying to sell off hotels. This concern is being expressed all over the country. In the Balearics, Menorca may arguably be the worst affected island if anticipated projects are halted: the five new resorts planned by the French Zannier group, four of them of a luxury nature, might now not happen. In Mallorca, what might now occur in Playa de Palma? The building of new hotels could still be stopped. The Palacio de Congresos might fall, as in end up being demolished after all: Més had raised the possibility before the election and Més could provide the next mayor of Palma.
In Mallorca, for the moment, we can't be sure how things will turn out. On one issue, the return of the eco-tax, there does seem to be slight disagreement between PSOE, Més and Podemos. At the time of writing, the three parties' representatives had yet to discuss this and to see if it might form part of a parliamentary programme if the three can agree to a coalition. In fact, all three did refer to such a tax in their election manifestos, but for PSOE it was more the case of its being a fallback position if the general financing system for the Balearics is not improved. Neither Més nor Podemos is said to be set on when a tax might actually be introduced, but here is just one item of uncertainty that the election and the hiatus are causing. No one knows for sure about the eco-tax, and even were there to be a three-way PSOE-Més-Podemos government, they still might not know. There will be plenty in the tourism industry who will be praying that PSOE's Francina Armengol is amenable to an approach from the PP to form a coalition (unlikely though this would be).
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