Catalonia's Day Of Destiny?

The question mark in this article's title is important. On Sunday there will be an election in Catalonia. To believe some, you would think that the result would all but seal Catalonia's destiny. It will do nothing of the sort.

Artur Mas, the Catalonian president, has called the election for two reasons: one, he failed to secure an agreement on tax-raising powers with central government; two, because he is seeking a mandate which might lead to a referendum on Catalonian independence. The election may be the first step in securing independence, but this is all it is.

Mas's failure to get Prime Minister Rajoy to allow Catalonia to raise income and other taxes is what precipitated the election. Or so it is said. Mas would have known that Rajoy would not consent to the demand. Official rejection was needed to set in motion the independence gambit, the first stage of which is a new election. Mas, hopeful of shoring up popularity, which had been dwindling because of his own austerity measures, has used the duller fiscal and economic and so therefore less radical argument to appeal to the altogether more radical and romantic tendency in Catalonia, that of independence.

The justification for Catalonia seeking tax-raising powers are two-fold: a) its contribution in funding fiscal equalisation (richer regions fund poorer ones) is, along with Madrid's, the highest in absolute terms; b) unlike the Basque Country and Navarre, it doesn't have such powers, so misses out on greater revenue, albeit that it would still, as with these two regions, have to transfer a proportion of tax revenue to central government. 

History, inevitably, plays a huge part in the Catalonian argument. The reasons for the Basque Country and Navarre enjoying privileges that no other region of Spain does can be traced back to the early eighteenth century and to the War of the Spanish Succession. Catalonia lost privileges it once had because it took the wrong side.

Economics and finance are, though, only a part of the story. However much it is disputed that Catalonia has an historic claim to be a separate nation, there is a  belief that it does have such a claim. This is the romantic argument, one stripped of the pragmatism of the purely economic. When a million or so people take to the streets to demand independence, they do so with the notion of long-denied nationhood in mind, not tax returns.

But none of this is actually to be decided on Sunday. Mas's CiU party may not get the absolute majority it wants (polls suggest that it won't). If it fails to or fails to increase the number of seats it has in the Catalonian parliament, Mas would not benefit from the "exceptional majority" he has said is required to move towards what would be an illegal referendum that would place Catalonia on a collision course with central government. The Republican Left party looks likely to make gains and so could well support Mas. In combination with the CiU, the number of seats may well exceed the 68 for an outright majority, but the ERC Republicans are a very different beast to the Catholic conservative CiU.

All the talk of independence, all the talk of how a separate Catalonia may or may not be able to align itself with the European Union, all the talk of the eventual creation of a Greater Catalonia that would embrace the Balearics (a ridiculous notion as there is no desire for such a thing in the Balearics except among a very small minority), all the wilder talk of possible military intervention have been premature. Even were Mas to get an absolute majority, getting to a referendum, let alone independence, would be some way down the track. And chances are that the independence gambit has, all along, been one to make Rajoy change his mind on tax-raising.

Premature or not, there are forces which have been seeking to discredit Mas. Central government is one, and the press, in the form of "El Mundo", another; the Catalonian public prosecutor is to open proceedings for libel against the newspaper for alleging that a police report exists which suggests Mas has taken kickbacks. It is the resort to attempt to undermine Mas that highlights why it is important that Catalonia does not secede. Catalonia is, in a sense, the conscience of Spain. It has received its knocks and its injustices, perceived or real, but it has retained an independence of voice as well as a tradition of liberalism. Catalonia's past should be part of Spain's present and future, as Spain needs Catalonia as much for its traditions of liberty as it does for its money. Don't go, Catalonia.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.