When Broken Isn't Broken: Hotel occupancy

I have lost patience with the Mallorcan Hoteliers Federation. Lost patience with its propaganda, its dissembling, its hyperbole. Lost patience as well with the apparent complicity of much of the media which accepts the federation's announcements without question, does not challenge them and draws inaccurate conclusions, which is what the federation's announcements are presumably intended to achieve.

The other day, the president of the federation stated that "we're talking about a broken economy" if hotel occupancy in August is not 100%. This is the hyperbole for you, a dissembling without reference to historical fact, and propaganda to support the special pleading that constantly comes out of the federation. To talk of 100% occupancy is total garbage. Way back when, in the days of less competition, 100% occupancy may have occurred (though I doubt it), but since the turn of the century it hasn't. If we are indeed talking about a broken economy, then it has been broken for an awfully long time. The dissembling is made worse because the hoteliers are fully aware as to historical information; they provide it.

It is easy to find this information. The problem is, or appears to me to be a problem, that no one bothers to look for it and to use it as a means of challenging the federation's conclusions. Except me, it would seem. The information is contained in the regional government's "tourism observatory" that is openly available on its website. Information for Mallorca's occupancy is part of the metadata gathered by the Spanish National Statistics Office (INE), also openly available via the internet.

For the peak months of July and August from 2001 to 2011, 22 separate months therefore, on only six occasions has hotel occupancy in Mallorca been 90% or higher (the six occasions were all in August - 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2011). In 2009, August occupancy wasn't 90%, it wasn't even 80%; it was 79.3%. Why? Simple. Crisis had taken hold big time. Last year's August occupancy was the highest this century: 93.2%. Why? Simple. The Arab spring effect.

The federation's so-called broken economy is a conclusion derived from what is anticipated will be an August occupancy figure of around 90%. The information for August won't be definitively known until later, but if we accept 90%, then, yes, it is a fall compared with last year, but last year was an exception; it was 4.1% higher than the August average of 89.1% since 2001. If "around 90%" happens to end up being the occupancy for this August, then it will have been a normal August; possibly better than the average in fact.

August's occupancy figures are one thing. What of July's? Last year, thanks to the Arab spring, occupancy was 89.9%, the highest since 2001 and way above the average of 84.1% between 2001 and 2011. But what happened this July? INE's data tells us that not only did the Balearics have the highest occupancy in Spain, it was also at a level of 90.4%. For Mallorca, the figure was higher still - 91.7%. This July, therefore, hotel occupancy exceeded 90% for the first time this century.

The federation's broken economy soundbite cannot be substantiated. Occupancy is either better (in July) than usual or at a similar level (in August) to the average. 100% is, in any event, a virtual impossibility. Some resorts may get close but this is all they do. It would be nice if there were 100% occupancy in both July and August, but it would never happen and could never happen. The pattern of occupancy across the island varies according to resort popularity, tour operator activity and levels of hotel supply. 100% for the island as a whole, therefore, is unrealistic.

The hoteliers, however, play a game of propaganda. They set the situation up (40% of tourists in illegal accommodation, for example) and follow up with figures they know are more or less representative yet which can imply under-occupancy, the cause of which is market imbalance, e.g. the illegal accommodation. Which is further garbage. Tourists who want to stay in a hotel will stay in a hotel. Tourists who don't want to stay in a hotel won't stay in a hotel. End of.

I have lost patience but I do have some sympathy because of the lack of a winter season. The statistics since 2001 don't make good reading. In 2001, the best year, January and February occupancy was, respectively, 52.8% and 71%. This year, it was 40% and 52.7%. The sympathy evaporates, though, thanks to the special pleading and the misleading information, both of which are compounded by a media which, for whatever reason, does not appear to question.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.