Where Winning Means Losing: Andalucía's election

Just one of the quirks of Spanish politics is that not all elections take place at the same time. It has been the quirk surrounding Andalucía that has, it has been widely suggested, held the national government back from going really hard at attempting to right Spain's economy. The Partido Popular, in control of the national government and of most regional governments, had been looking for a ringing endorsement in Andalucía. It hasn't happened.

There has been an endorsement of sorts in that the PP has, for the first time ever, actually won the election for the Andalucían parliament, but it hasn't gained a majority. It could form the government, but it would need support from the left, and the left, in the form of PSOE and the United Left party, could well maintain Andalucía's socialist tradition by governing in coalition.

Andalucía's parliamentary elections would have coincided with the Spanish general election, had it not been for the fact that the general election was called five months early. The four-year electoral cycle for Andalucía's parliament is out of sync in any event, as regional parliaments were otherwise all elected in May last year.

It would have been better for everyone had Andalucía gone to the polls at the same time as the general election. The hiatus since then has seemingly held up Mariano Rajoy and it has also given time for disenchantment with Rajoy's PP national government to kick in; this is an interpretation of the Andalucían result, though the PP did still, after all, actually win the election.

Does the result and the potential continuance of a socialist government in Andalucía really make much difference? The PP controls mostly all of Spain and where it doesn't, such as in Catalonia, the government there, despite its differences with the national government in matters of a Catalan nature, is pretty much in agreement with the austerity measures.

In theory, it doesn't make a difference. But in practice, notwithstanding the PP's moral victory if it is indeed unable to form a government in Andalucía, it might just make a difference. The timing of the election and the result, five days before the general strike takes place, might well add fuel to the discontent on the streets, a discontent, so it is being said, that PSOE has been helping to stoke up.

Andalucía is not representative of Spain in that it has been solidly socialist ever since autonomous regional governments were introduced. It is also not representative in that it has the worst rate of unemployment in Spain and the second-worst GDP, one that is well below the average for Spanish regions. Nevertheless, if it stays outside the PP orbit, it could well become the focus for opposition to the national government, and opposition that might just turn a bit nasty, if some fears being voiced were to be realised.

There again, things turning nasty don't depend on election results. Too much can possibly be read into what has happened in Andalucía, but PSOE are milking the result for all it's worth, buoyed also by having gained most seats in another parliamentary election - in Asturias. Here, the election was on account of the government having been unworkable, the former PP secretary-general Francisco Álvarez Cascos having formed his own party and having been unable to establish a stable government following elections in May 2011. Cascos' party may well, with PP support, form the next government, but PSOE's numerical victory is being seen, if only by PSOE, as further evidence of disenchantment with the PP.

All of this political uncertainty takes place against the background of Italian premier Mario Monti having criticised Spain for not doing more to put its public accounts in order. This may sound like the pot calling the kettle black, but then Monti has taken significant measures to put the lid on the Italian deficit pot. Brussels might well agree with Monti, concern having been expressed that Rajoy's government has deliberately overstated the Spanish deficit (so as to make it look good) but implying that not all is as transparent as it might be in Madrid.

Brussels might also be concerned that Andalucía, a recipient of huge amounts of European benevolence about which many questions have been asked as to where it all went, is not about to shed a reputation for dodgy public governance and also acquire a further one as the region that undermines Rajoy's attempts to put Spain back on track. This assumes, however, that Rajoy is doing so. The Andalucía election may have been less than a ringing endorsement of the Rajoy government, but what actually has it been doing? Very little, other than anticipating this week's general strike.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.