Catalonia Is Not Spain, And Nor Is Galicia

When a country is in as deep a mess as Spain is, when its government has shown itself to be as prone to procrastination as Spain's is, when its prime minister is as anonymous and as lacking a spark of inspiration as Spain's is, a ruling party - by any normal rules of elections - should receive a spanking. This is Spain, however. Or more accurately, this is Galicia. Archly conservative and home to that anonymous prime minister, such anonymity does not equate to lack of homeland popularity; the Partido Popular has not just won the regional election in Galicia, it has increased its majority.

This isn't how things are meant to happen, but happen they have. The PP's win in Galicia can be described in many ways and with many different adjectives, but does it represent a vote of national confidence in Rajoy and the government?

The answer is almost certainly no. Yes, it is seemingly remarkable that the PP could have increased its majority, but questions about the opposition PSOE are as relevant as any about the government and its policies. An opposition party, given the circumstances in Spain, should be performing much better. The truth is that PSOE is still in as much disarray as it was after the clouting it received in both regional and national elections last year.

Whether PSOE would be faring better now had it not confirmed as its leader Alfredo Rubalcaba, the defeated prime ministerial candidate, is a moot point, but in failing to select Carmen Chacón back in February, the party arguably missed an opportunity to give itself a facelift and a fresh appearance. Rubalcaba cuts a figure almost as dull as Rajoy (which is saying something) and he carries the burden of defeat. Oh how much PSOE and indeed Spain are crying out for a González; this is a land of uniformly grey, uninspiring politicians.

Galicia represents a triumph for party organisation as well as history. It is PP land, and the PP, generally better organised than PSOE in any event, threw its considerable weight behind ensuring a good result, despite a lower than expected turnout, which might in fact have worked to its advantage. But the victory is a local victory. The party has not managed to pick up in other regions where there have been elections this year (Andalucía and Asturias), and it had a bit of a mare in the Basque Country on the same day as the Galicia election, losing three seats. There again, PSOE also lost ground.

The Basque elections, required once PSOE had proved to be incapable of running the region in coalition with, oddly enough, the PP, have returned what will probably be a new coalition of the moderate PNV (Basque Nationalists) and EH-Bildu, very much more minded towards independence and considered by some as a front for the now terrorism-renounced ETA.

The contrast between Galicia and the Basque Country is stark and it highlights the fractured nature of the union of Spanish regions. Or at least, the fracture caused by some of the regions. Galicia is indifferent to nationalist claims, reflected in the decline in support for its own BNG nationalists, but the Basques will have been eyeing up events in Catalonia with keen interest, the PNV in particular. Moderate the PNV may be - but then so is Artur Mas's CiU in Catalonia - it wants more self-government, for example control over airports, and intends a new law paving the way for a referendum on independence by 2015. What happens after the 25 November elections in Catalonia could be as historic for the Basques as it might be for the Catalonians. Or things could just go dreadfully wrong.

For now though, Rajoy can take some confidence from the Galicia win. As he has appeared to have been waiting for the elections before requesting the inevitable Spanish bailout, he can now, with brassnecked cynicism, go ahead and request it and so stop fannying around. He really needn't have waited, as Galicia was probably secure regardless and he had made sure to smooth things in his home region by being generous to Galicia during the recent round of national government divvying up of investment in the regions (unlike the Balearics).

The bailout will affect national pride, of this there is little doubt, but it has been anticipated for so long that the country is probably resigned to it. Dealing with any political fallout from the bailout will be one thing. Quite another is Catalonia and now the Basques. Where on earth is this all leading?


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.