Too Many People: Mallorca's population

The population of Calvia now exceeds 50,000 - 53,765 if you like precision. In 1979 the number of inhabitants was just over 11,000. Population growth in Mallorca as a whole, from a census of 1981 up to 2008 was over 300,000, a percentage rise of nearly 60%. In Calvia, as in other parts of the island, the growth can be partly attributable to immigration; it exceeds emigration by a factor of roughly one-third. Prediction for further growth in population, during this current decade, is less dramatic - at around 7% - but this might not be accurate; from 2000 to 2008, the island's population went up by 170,000, a 25% rise.

The increase in population raises all manner of issues, not least one related to the diversity of the population; in Calvia the foreign population is 20,000, 37% if you prefer, of which 6,000 are British. The trend is not as marked in other municipalities, but foreign populations are still significant; around 8% British in Pollensa for instance, slightly less in Alcúdia. In more general terms, population increase asks questions of housing, education, health, transport and resources.

One can view the population increase in two ways - either positively or with alarm. On the plus side is the potential for wealth and demand creation; downsides include the environmental impact. As a matter of policy, the Spanish Government wanted an increase in population, growth having stalled after the early boom years of the 60s and 70s. The so-called "baby cheque", now dropped, was partly designed to give an incentive to growth. Not that it really worked, and Spain remains one of the lowest spenders on family benefits in Europe.

Where there has been population growth in Spain, it has been uneven, with Mallorca and the Balearics having the highest, double that of the national average. But the at-times dramatic rise in the local population begs the question as to whether there should be a limit, and if so, what it is.

Answering the question is far from easy. Economists and those engaged in demographics studies find it difficult to agree as to models of optimum population, so much so that many have abandoned the word "optimum" as it is too difficult to arrive at. Much of the theoretical basis for population studies is fairly ancient, one such basis being the social welfare model onto which has been grafted concepts such as happiness (Cameron's happiness index is not as stupid as it might sound). In general terms though, overcrowding and congestion are bad things as they lead to environmental damage and a loss of welfare, be it through crime or social breakdown, of which immigration might, say might, play a part.

None of this, however, gets us any nearer to being able to say with any degree of certainty whether Mallorca's population is set to become too large or if it already is too large. Indeed, the contrary may well be the case; there may be scope, a necessity even, for an increasing population.

Fundamentally though, the size of the population boils down to the ability to sustain it and to provide for it. And in Mallorca's case, the situation is complicated by the size of its temporary population - tourists.

Between 10 and 12 August in 2008, the number of tourists in the Balearics peaked. There were 1,930,000, the overwhelming majority being in Mallorca. This represented more than a doubling of the number of people on the island. To put this into some perspective, Mallorca is roughly the size of Essex. At peak times in the season, its population exceeds that of what is a densely populated county. But it has a very different geography. Congestion and overcrowding might well be said to occur, especially because of the uneven spread of people.

Ivan Murray, an academic at the Universitat de les Illes Balears, has made the point that Mallorca's level of tourism is all but unsustainable; it's too high in other words. He has also made the point that over the period from 2003 to 2008, the number of tourists needed to realise a million euros of tourist expenditure rose by 35%. What he is saying, therefore, is that the economic returns from the temporary population have slumped. Quite alarmingly so. And yet to provide for this decline, there is still the pressure on resources, be they water, electricity or other services. If the social welfare model places such a premium on the environment, and it does, then it can be argued that, because of diminishing returns from tourism and the overwhelming reliance upon tourism (80% of GDP), the temporary population actually creates a negative.

The logic of Murray's argument, not one that he advocates, is more construction for tourism in order to compensate for these diminishing returns. Though Mallorca is still relatively "unconstructed", further construction would be in existing centres. Indeed, it should be, if one adheres to the notion of the "Benidorm effect" of more efficient super holiday hubs. But then these would create localised overcrowding; the tipping point of too high a population would be reached, if it hasn't already been.

The conclusion from all this is that, while there may well be scope for the permanent population of Mallorca to increase, there may well not be if one adds in the temporary population. Not at current levels at any rate. But to not increase that temporary population means, where Murray is concerned, a loss of economic well-being. And none of this takes account of what might occur going forward - the greater strain on resources, water especially, because of climate change.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.