Sunday, July 01, 2012

For Sale - Mediterranean Island, Out Of Hand

There are times when I feel that I and the world's leading economists are operating from very much the same hymn sheet or textbook. Here's one very good example of how my own economic solutions tie in with those who are paid vast amounts of money, while I'm not. I once suggested that incentives should be given to tourists, i.e. they should be paid (bribed, if you prefer) to come to Mallorca.

Nouriel Roubini is something of the Übermensch of economics. He forecast with worrying accuracy, and was therefore ignored, the crisis that started in 2008. Since having been vindicated, he has become the economist everyone wants to be seen with, despite a nickname of Doctor Doom. I also forecast the crisis, but in a different way. I once wrote a story, which I got bored with and never finished, in which I anticipated an economic war in Europe, the result of a collapse of the banking system.

Anyway, Roubini, who has had enough of all the austerity malarkey, has borrowed my idea and developed it into the notion of the German Government giving every German household a one thousand euro voucher that can only be spent in a crisis-hit southern European country, e.g. Spain, and e.g. therefore in Mallorca. I'm delighted that Dr. Roubini has had the sense to follow my suggestion, and I'm happy to send him only a modest invoice in recognition of the idea by way of settlement.

Given the astronomical sums normally tossed around by governments, handing over a thousand notes to some 30 million households, or however many it might be, is small beer, or a small Pilsner lager to the Germans. Where I fear, however, that Dr. Roubini may not be entirely clear in his thinking is in knowing how the 1,000 euros would be spent. If most of it ended up in TUI's pockets, and most it probably would, then I don't know if Spain or Mallorca would benefit greatly, and not directly anyway.

But were it to go to TUI, then why not just get TUI to hand over a load of cash to the Balearic Government. "Here, we're the sort of middleman in this act of German governmental benevolence, and we'll cut you in to the tune of 50%," or something along these lines.

As it is clear that the Germans, and a very few other economies (e.g. the Russians) are the only ones that have got any money, perhaps we should simply revisit the old idea of Germany (or some other country) offering to buy up parts of Spain, such as Mallorca. Was there really ever a group of German businessmen who were prepared to buy Mallorca all those years ago? Or is the story just an urban myth? Someone should be on the phone to them, if there really was and if they are still knocking around.

If not German businessmen, then there is always eBay. The attempt to sell Belgium in 2007 was a thoroughly laudable idea. There was only a reserve of 14 million dollars when eBay stopped the fun and took the item down, but who knows what might have been offered. Mind you, any potential purchaser was advised that they would be in for some 300 billion dollars of national debt and would only be buying secondhand. Where Mallorca's concerned, there would be debt and the island wouldn't be bought secondhand but out of hand. 

There is, though, much to commend purchase by overseas investors, be they national governments or businesses. If Germany stepped in and bought up Mallorca, then Utz Claassen, just as an example, would get his wish of German football fans watching Real Mallorca, but in the Bundesliga rather than La Liga. The Arabs coveted parts of Spain and Mallorca many centuries ago, so now is maybe the time to invite them back in, and they wouldn't need to radically alter some town names - Alcúdia, Binissalem, for example, still have their Arabic roots.

Tough economic times demand some original thinking. Dr. Roubini and I are to the fore in having such original and radical thoughts. It's just a shame that no one will pay any attention. Mind you, they didn't pay any attention to Dr. Roubini before, but looked what happened. So ...


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.

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