Following the euphoria of a party swept into a power on a raft of promises which may prove to be less feasible in their implementation than in their oratory, Greece is waking up to what the nitty-gritty of policies will actually be, and there is one area of policy on which a weather eye will be kept by many in Mallorca and other regions of Spain that are competitor tourist destinations.
Syriza's Alexis Tsipras has met with businesspeople to outline what the party's tourism policy is likely to entail, and there are some headlining elements which will resonate here, in particular those to do with all-inclusive hotels and airlines. On the latter, Syriza will look at the possibility of creating a national airline, by which one assumes that it would be a government-owned airline, and at stopping the privatisation of airports on the Greek islands. With protests against the AENA partial privatisation occurring in the Balearics, there will be interest in seeing if and how Syriza halts the privatisation process in Greece.
It is what Tsipras has had to say about all-inclusives which will probably attract greater attention. Syriza has said that it won't ban AI projects that already exist but that it would look to reduce the number of AI packages and prevent any further developments which are to offer AI in a country where an eighth of tourism revenue is derived from AI. Tsipras's observation that all-inclusive resorts exist "at the margin of local economies" will, for many in Mallorca, be indisputable. "Tourism is an issue for local communities which live and breathe it." Amen.
But AI or not AI, the Syriza line appears to be one that will block or inhibit new resort development (on a grand scale) of any type. Investors, if they haven't already, will be packing their bags and heading off in search of more amenable political regimes. And it is this, investment, which is a fault line in Syriza's policy. Were it to dry up in supporting a major industry such as tourism, then righting the Greek economy might remain a pipe-dream.
It has been suggested that the current flurry of hotel investment activity and licence applications in Mallorca has been inspired in part by fears of what a Podemos-influenced if not Podemos-led regional government might mean. Comparisons between Podemos and Syriza aren't as straightforward as some might think, as I have noted, but one would have to believe that there would be some similarity in thinking when it comes to tourism. Investment in Mallorca might, despite getting permissions in place, be affected were Podemos to become a major political influence after May.
Comparisons between Greece and Mallorca and indeed Greece and Spain in terms of tourism are also not straightforward. The Greek market is very much smaller than Spain's; the total number of tourists to Greece in 2014 amounted to roughly twice the number that Mallorca alone attracted. Given the substantially lower volume, it is just conceivable that policy changes wouldn't harm the country's tourism to the extent that numbers would fall, except that these would be policy changes that would also have an impact on tour operators, and it has been the case that, in certain parts of the globe, government attempts to outlaw or reduce AI have had to be re-thought because of tour operator influence and threats.
A further difference lies with the political organisation of Greece and Spain. Greece is a unitary state, meaning that the administrative regions of Greece do not have the devolved and autonomous powers that the regions of Spain do. These powers include tourism policies, so the Balearics (or any other region) could, in theory, ban AI, though such a ban would probably end up at the Supreme Court as it might be argued that it exceeded these powers and contravened regions' statutes of autonomy. It is these very statutes, however, that could be invoked in reverse were, hypothetically, the state to decree that there would be a halt to all new large-scale tourism development and also to AI. Much though it is argued that the regions enjoy too much power, the statutes of autonomy do act as a means of preventing abuses by central government; they could only be altered by a re-writing of the constitution.
I accept that this is all speculative, but while I find it inconceivable at present to think that Podemos might become the dominant influence in both national and regional (Balearics) government, it would be foolish to dismiss the possibility. And were such a possibility to be realised, then, assuming there were tourism policies similar to those that Syriza plans, the scale of AI might well be reduced. Which might sound like good news, but then one would have to ask about future investment: a question that the Greeks will now have to ask.
Showing posts with label Greece. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Greece. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Thursday, November 03, 2011
The Gift Horse: The Euro crisis
Beware of Greeks bearing gifts. The advice has endured for many centuries. Far more recent is the advice to the Greeks to beware of Europeans bearing gifts, such as that which slashes what they owe by 50%. The Greeks, though, know a thing or two about deceptive gifts. They invented them. Or it. The European Trojan Horse that the Greeks are expected to admit into their walls comes stuffed with an army-load of more austerity. Ingrates they may be, sending the markets back into further turmoil, but when presented with a dubious gift, they do the only sensible thing - and that's to call a referendum.
When the Greeks say no and send the Trojan Horse packing, they'll be waving it goodbye from a dock side in Piraeus with banners proclaiming the default it was meant to avoid and their fond adieus to the Eurozone. Why bother waiting? Let them default now and get on with it.
Of course there is another way of looking at it. The referendum ruse is a way of extracting more gifts. 50%? Why not make it 25%? Or one can also see it as the Greeks wanting to get a bit of pride back. They have spent the last few months being portrayed as tax-swindling, idle ne'er-do-wells and now have to put up with Sarkozy saying that they made their numbers up on the back of a fag packet after a good night on the retsina.
Well, they probably did make up their numbers, pre-Euro admission, but then most European countries have played fast and loose to different degrees with "the rules". The French, for example.
In the days - when were they, as they seem like centuries ago - when Gordon Brown was arriving at his tests for the UK's entry into Euroland, a key measure was the ability to comply with the stability pact, the one that the French (and the Germans) regularly flouted. In fact, everyone did with the probable exception of the powerhouse that is Luxembourg.
Anyway, let's not worry too much about who made up what figures, more pressing is what happens when Greece goes totally belly-up, as in Papandreou loses the referendum, Greece exits the euro, total chaos ensues and hyperinflation takes over with the printers pumping out so many notes that it will require pantechnicons to carry the money and not the wheelbarrows of the Weimar Republic.
Hmm, ah yes, Weimar Republic, economic and political chaos, hyperinflation. The Germans should know all about what follows from such circumstances. Indeed the Greeks should have a shrewd idea what can happen as well.
But then it is only Greece. Except of course it isn't. There is always, well, Spain for instance. So just hypothesise for a moment. Poor old Mariano Rajoy, some time into his tenure as prime minister, finds himself in dire need of a bail-out, Europe comes along bearing gifts (assuming any of the trillion or so is left or the Chinese keep pumping money in) and effectively takes over the government, which, more or less, is what would happen in Greece. Referendum follows. Chaos ensues.
Leaving the Eurozone doesn't mean leaving the European Union, but much would depend on how the political chaos is handled. The Greeks, and the Spanish, have, when all said and done, some form. It wouldn't be a case of choosing to leave the European Union but of possibly being booted out. Idiotic concerns about having an identity residence card or not would be supplanted by rather different concerns.
The Spanish hypothesis might remain just that - an hypothesis. Much though a Greek no could create the long-anticipated domino effect that brings Spain to its financial knees, the possibility exists that Europe would still support Greece. It is also just possible that the Greeks would vote yes. Faced with more European-imposed austerity or leaving the Eurozone, they may decide to err in favour of the Euro.
Much might rest, however, on what voices come to the fore in the meantime. As this is as much a political as it is an economic issue, chuck some highly populist mouthpiece into the equation, one that damns Europe and anyone or anything else, and who knows what might happen. This might be the worry, either before or after a Greek referendum, and so it might also be for other countries, Spain included.
Whither the European Odyssey now? Who can predict with certainty, just as who could have predicted how the journey would unfold before the adventure was embarked upon. Whether the Greeks prefer to look a gift horse in the mouth will depend upon what they understand by "gift". In German the word means poison.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
When the Greeks say no and send the Trojan Horse packing, they'll be waving it goodbye from a dock side in Piraeus with banners proclaiming the default it was meant to avoid and their fond adieus to the Eurozone. Why bother waiting? Let them default now and get on with it.
Of course there is another way of looking at it. The referendum ruse is a way of extracting more gifts. 50%? Why not make it 25%? Or one can also see it as the Greeks wanting to get a bit of pride back. They have spent the last few months being portrayed as tax-swindling, idle ne'er-do-wells and now have to put up with Sarkozy saying that they made their numbers up on the back of a fag packet after a good night on the retsina.
Well, they probably did make up their numbers, pre-Euro admission, but then most European countries have played fast and loose to different degrees with "the rules". The French, for example.
In the days - when were they, as they seem like centuries ago - when Gordon Brown was arriving at his tests for the UK's entry into Euroland, a key measure was the ability to comply with the stability pact, the one that the French (and the Germans) regularly flouted. In fact, everyone did with the probable exception of the powerhouse that is Luxembourg.
Anyway, let's not worry too much about who made up what figures, more pressing is what happens when Greece goes totally belly-up, as in Papandreou loses the referendum, Greece exits the euro, total chaos ensues and hyperinflation takes over with the printers pumping out so many notes that it will require pantechnicons to carry the money and not the wheelbarrows of the Weimar Republic.
Hmm, ah yes, Weimar Republic, economic and political chaos, hyperinflation. The Germans should know all about what follows from such circumstances. Indeed the Greeks should have a shrewd idea what can happen as well.
But then it is only Greece. Except of course it isn't. There is always, well, Spain for instance. So just hypothesise for a moment. Poor old Mariano Rajoy, some time into his tenure as prime minister, finds himself in dire need of a bail-out, Europe comes along bearing gifts (assuming any of the trillion or so is left or the Chinese keep pumping money in) and effectively takes over the government, which, more or less, is what would happen in Greece. Referendum follows. Chaos ensues.
Leaving the Eurozone doesn't mean leaving the European Union, but much would depend on how the political chaos is handled. The Greeks, and the Spanish, have, when all said and done, some form. It wouldn't be a case of choosing to leave the European Union but of possibly being booted out. Idiotic concerns about having an identity residence card or not would be supplanted by rather different concerns.
The Spanish hypothesis might remain just that - an hypothesis. Much though a Greek no could create the long-anticipated domino effect that brings Spain to its financial knees, the possibility exists that Europe would still support Greece. It is also just possible that the Greeks would vote yes. Faced with more European-imposed austerity or leaving the Eurozone, they may decide to err in favour of the Euro.
Much might rest, however, on what voices come to the fore in the meantime. As this is as much a political as it is an economic issue, chuck some highly populist mouthpiece into the equation, one that damns Europe and anyone or anything else, and who knows what might happen. This might be the worry, either before or after a Greek referendum, and so it might also be for other countries, Spain included.
Whither the European Odyssey now? Who can predict with certainty, just as who could have predicted how the journey would unfold before the adventure was embarked upon. Whether the Greeks prefer to look a gift horse in the mouth will depend upon what they understand by "gift". In German the word means poison.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
And You Will Go To Mykonos
I'm back in 1973. On a ferry crossing the Aegean. Two Irish girls have become my travelling companions. We are passing the uninhabited island of Delos, heading for the windmills of Mykonos.
In the early '70s, Mykonos, together with Crete, were the end-of-the-line destinations for the grand tourers. The island attracted hippies, gays, nudists, artists, Australians, and some who were all of these things. It also attracted some regular tourists as well as boat loads of American day visitors, eagerly snapping photos as they landed; the trophy shot was one with the pelican who lived in a bar on the harbour front.
Mykonos was both Bohemian and hedonistic in a style far removed from the later lager tourist who was to lay waste to Greek islands such as Zante. It was distant enough from the mainland to have a streak of independence. Locals would speak to you, albeit in hushed tones, about the brutality of the country's military regime.
Despite the poor image that followed the 1967 coup, Mykonos and the Greek islands gradually became a new, but still unspoiled world for the tourist. Like Spain under Franco, there was a questionableness as to the morality of tourism; not that this deterred the hippies or the intellectuals who would gather at the tavernas in Mykonos town every evening.
And like Franco's Spain, and therefore Mallorca, Greece looked for economic salvation from tourism, which it got, along with a construction and inward investment boom.
For the teenaged grand tourer, the contrary liberal attitudes of Mykonos were only one part of the Greece story. You didn't go to Greece without doing the culture as well. The Irish girls and I sat under a tree and ate watermelon, shaded from the ferocity of a July heat traipsing around the Acropolis. For those who ventured to Crete, the hippy enclaves of Plakias and elsewhere were the base camps for visiting the cradle of Minoan civilisation.
Come forward to today, and Greece and the Greek islands have a new poor image - twice over. Greece is Euroland's basket case; there is no more construction, and the economy has all but collapsed. The islands have attained a reputation tarnished by the movement across the Mediterranean of a particular type of holidaymaker. For all this though, like Mallorca, the islands are anticipating a boom summer, the beneficiaries of the north African upheavals. While all else in the economy may be failing, tourism is being seen, once more, as the salvation.
Helena Smith, writing in "The Guardian", stirred the memories of Mykonos. She also described a situation with similarities to Mallorca.
The Greek prime minister sees tourism as the "model for economic development", but the country and its islands need re-branding, says the president of the Association of Greek Tourism Enterprises. "The immense cultural wealth" has to be tapped into. Yet, this wealth, says the prime minister, is something "we either don't know or have no idea about promoting in a proper and organised way".
It is the coinciding of re-branding and culture that has resonance for Mallorca. The development of cultural tourism, long wished for, has been dashed on the rocks of a lamentable inability to conceive a brand image that isn't dominated by sun and beach. Partly this is because Mallorca, much though some in positions who should know better might believe, doesn't have strong culture. Certainly not in the way that Greece does. And if the Greeks can't promote culture, then frankly what the hell hope is there for Mallorca?
It seems crazy that the Greeks, with that immense cultural wealth, should need to think about its branding. It should sell itself. As it used to. In 1973, though I might also have had more basic pleasures in mind, it never occurred to me not to do the culture. It was one of the reasons why you went. And nowadays, you can even get guided tours of the archaeologically and mythologically important Delos, which was off-limits back then.
Perhaps it is something in the nature of today's tourism and tourists from the old world of Britain and northern Europe. Destinations, be they Mallorca or Mykonos, overtaken by development, have bred the contempt of familiarity and convenience. What once was a curiosity, a leap into the unknown, an adventure has gone. And it has taken with it any natural and unforced enquiry and interest in culture. You can promote it, but does anyone listen?
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
In the early '70s, Mykonos, together with Crete, were the end-of-the-line destinations for the grand tourers. The island attracted hippies, gays, nudists, artists, Australians, and some who were all of these things. It also attracted some regular tourists as well as boat loads of American day visitors, eagerly snapping photos as they landed; the trophy shot was one with the pelican who lived in a bar on the harbour front.
Mykonos was both Bohemian and hedonistic in a style far removed from the later lager tourist who was to lay waste to Greek islands such as Zante. It was distant enough from the mainland to have a streak of independence. Locals would speak to you, albeit in hushed tones, about the brutality of the country's military regime.
Despite the poor image that followed the 1967 coup, Mykonos and the Greek islands gradually became a new, but still unspoiled world for the tourist. Like Spain under Franco, there was a questionableness as to the morality of tourism; not that this deterred the hippies or the intellectuals who would gather at the tavernas in Mykonos town every evening.
And like Franco's Spain, and therefore Mallorca, Greece looked for economic salvation from tourism, which it got, along with a construction and inward investment boom.
For the teenaged grand tourer, the contrary liberal attitudes of Mykonos were only one part of the Greece story. You didn't go to Greece without doing the culture as well. The Irish girls and I sat under a tree and ate watermelon, shaded from the ferocity of a July heat traipsing around the Acropolis. For those who ventured to Crete, the hippy enclaves of Plakias and elsewhere were the base camps for visiting the cradle of Minoan civilisation.
Come forward to today, and Greece and the Greek islands have a new poor image - twice over. Greece is Euroland's basket case; there is no more construction, and the economy has all but collapsed. The islands have attained a reputation tarnished by the movement across the Mediterranean of a particular type of holidaymaker. For all this though, like Mallorca, the islands are anticipating a boom summer, the beneficiaries of the north African upheavals. While all else in the economy may be failing, tourism is being seen, once more, as the salvation.
Helena Smith, writing in "The Guardian", stirred the memories of Mykonos. She also described a situation with similarities to Mallorca.
The Greek prime minister sees tourism as the "model for economic development", but the country and its islands need re-branding, says the president of the Association of Greek Tourism Enterprises. "The immense cultural wealth" has to be tapped into. Yet, this wealth, says the prime minister, is something "we either don't know or have no idea about promoting in a proper and organised way".
It is the coinciding of re-branding and culture that has resonance for Mallorca. The development of cultural tourism, long wished for, has been dashed on the rocks of a lamentable inability to conceive a brand image that isn't dominated by sun and beach. Partly this is because Mallorca, much though some in positions who should know better might believe, doesn't have strong culture. Certainly not in the way that Greece does. And if the Greeks can't promote culture, then frankly what the hell hope is there for Mallorca?
It seems crazy that the Greeks, with that immense cultural wealth, should need to think about its branding. It should sell itself. As it used to. In 1973, though I might also have had more basic pleasures in mind, it never occurred to me not to do the culture. It was one of the reasons why you went. And nowadays, you can even get guided tours of the archaeologically and mythologically important Delos, which was off-limits back then.
Perhaps it is something in the nature of today's tourism and tourists from the old world of Britain and northern Europe. Destinations, be they Mallorca or Mykonos, overtaken by development, have bred the contempt of familiarity and convenience. What once was a curiosity, a leap into the unknown, an adventure has gone. And it has taken with it any natural and unforced enquiry and interest in culture. You can promote it, but does anyone listen?
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
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