9/11 In A Catalonian Style

9/11 is about to take on a new relevance. The Spanish love of reducing dates to numbers and/or letters will mean that 9 November is suitably abbreviated. It may be 9-N but 9/11 might, for its potentially seismic consequences, be more appropriate. The president of Catalonia, Artur Mas, has announced that on 9 November next year, there will be a referendum on independence. There will be two questions posed. Do you want Catalonia to become a state? Do you want this state to be independent? Yes or no?

Mas, whose party is the CiU, has been supported in the referendum call by a rag-bag of other parties which represent varying shades of the left and Catalonian nationalism. One of these, the ERC (Republican Left of Catalonia), became a significant force in Catalonia following elections last year. Mas, who thought he was going to enjoy an increased majority for the CiU, misinterpreted a massive demonstration in Barcelona in favour of independence. This wasn't, as things turned out at the polls, necessarily an expression in favour of the CiU leading the march to independence. The CiU lost twelve seats and had to cast around for a partner. It found one in the ERC. In so doing, any possibility that there might have been of Mas, whose party isn't radical, adopting a more softly-softly approach on independence was blown out of the water. The ERC is a fervently pro-independence party. Mas was left with little option but to go full steam ahead on independence, even if there are plenty of commentators who would argue that he has never really been in favour of it and still isn't.

There is by no means total political support for the referendum among Catalonia's numerous political parties. The third strongest party, PSC, the Catalonian branch of the PSOE socialists, is against it. As are the fourth strongest PPC and the sixth strongest C's. Yes, there really are a lot of political parties in Catalonia. Pere Navarro, who is the leader of the PSC, has urged that there be dialogue and negotiations with Madrid and that there is also a dispensing with constantly looking to the past.

But it is this past which forever catches up with politics of a Catalan nature, be the location Mallorca or Catalonia. Navarro has avoided attending a symposium called "Spain against Catalonia: an historical look (1714-2014)". The implication of the symposium's purpose is clear. 1714 marked the start of Catalan repression under King Philip V after the fall of Barcelona in that year which brought to a close the War of the Spanish Succession. Catalonia was never the same again.

Navarro has made a plea for history to be something for historians, but it is a forlorn hope to believe that the past will be consigned to history. 1714 and subsequent repressions make this impossible and so colour the present day and present-day politics.

It has to be remembered, though, how the latest move towards independence came about. It was because Mas failed to secure any change to Catalonia's financing, a change which would have meant it keeping more of the revenues it raised which are then handed over to Madrid. As Mariano Rajoy was not interested in perhaps granting Catalonia a similar status to that of the Basque Country and Navarre (the regions which keep tax revenues but hand over instead what is almost like a management fee to national government), Mas opted to play the independence card. And this has brought us therefore to the 9/11 announcement.

There is of course one major problem with the referendum. It wouldn't be legal, and Spain's Justice Minister has said that it will not be held. But what if it were to be or were to be going to be? What would happen? Rajoy has made some dark mutterings about doing anything to prevent the referendum occurring. Anything?

If Mas had hoped that pressing for independence would extract some changes from Madrid, he has thus far been disappointed. And now that the date has been set, even were Madrid to offer discussions on financing (with a genuine aim to changing it), it is hard to see how the date could be un-set. Mas is in too deep.

The timing of the referendum may well have in mind the independence referendum in Scotland shortly before. If there were a rejection of independence by the Scots, this might influence how the Catalonia referendum would go (polls tend to suggest there is a pretty even split between those for or against independence). Inevitably, there will be, as there already have been, comparisons between the Catalonian and Scottish votes, but there is one very big difference. One is sanctioned, the other isn't. If Catalonia were to vote in favour of independence, assuming it is able to, then things could get rather difficult.