Too Much Uncertainty: Mallorca's tourism industry

The hiatus which occurs in Spain - in its towns and its regions - following elections is unsatisfactory. Stability is the key word that politicians have been uttering for weeks - those from the Partido Popular especially - yet stability is undermined even before the precise make-up of new governments is known (which may in themselves cause greater loss of stability). The hiatus period, the one the tourism industry is currently enduring, is especially damaging, or potentially so. The industry is worried, alarmed even by what type of governments might emerge, but the sooner they know, the better. Meantime, there is rumour, there is speculation, there is heightened anxiety. It's not good for business.

Four years ago of course, the hiatus was not a problem. Most parts of the country, like the Balearics, were looking forward to a Partido Popular government. In the Balearics the industry knew what was coming and it couldn't disguise its delighted expectation. Because of the current uncertainty there are pleas for the industry to be treated kindly, for the gains of the past four years not to be undermined.

Nationally, Joan Molas, the president of CEHAT, the confederation of hoteliers, has stressed the importance of not undoing the recovery that tourism has fuelled. He has also stressed problems that the hotel industry still has: not having regained levels of profitability that were being attained before crisis struck; the emergence of the alternative, "collaborative" economy and its proliferation of illegal lets; the absence of genuine plans to transform "mature" (i.e. outdated) resorts; the need for seasonal incentives, such as reduced social security payments.

On these, he may be right to worry, though not necessarily on the final item - in the Balearics, the left is inclined to introduce such incentives. But the worries, caused by the uncertainty, can lead to wrong conclusions. For example, in Barcelona, where the left-wing Ada Colau looks likely to become mayor, there was talk of her being opposed to the city's continuing the staging of the massive Mobile World Congress. In fact, she has signed a document expressing her support for it to continue to be held in Barcelona.

Nevertheless, with a new contract for the congress to be signed in Singapore next month (a contract from 2018, as Barcelona is still guaranteed it until then), there will be nervousness, as has already been demonstrated: a Meliá project being frozen, as also is one to build a hotel in the city's Deutsche Bank tower; greater urgency in trying to sell off hotels. This concern is being expressed all over the country. In the Balearics, Menorca may arguably be the worst affected island if anticipated projects are halted: the five new resorts planned by the French Zannier group, four of them of a luxury nature, might now not happen. In Mallorca, what might now occur in Playa de Palma? The building of new hotels could still be stopped. The Palacio de Congresos might fall, as in end up being demolished after all: Més had raised the possibility before the election and Més could provide the next mayor of Palma.

In Mallorca, for the moment, we can't be sure how things will turn out. On one issue, the return of the eco-tax, there does seem to be slight disagreement between PSOE, Més and Podemos. At the time of writing, the three parties' representatives had yet to discuss this and to see if it might form part of a parliamentary programme if the three can agree to a coalition. In fact, all three did refer to such a tax in their election manifestos, but for PSOE it was more the case of its being a fallback position if the general financing system for the Balearics is not improved. Neither Més nor Podemos is said to be set on when a tax might actually be introduced, but here is just one item of uncertainty that the election and the hiatus are causing. No one knows for sure about the eco-tax, and even were there to be a three-way PSOE-Més-Podemos government, they still might not know. There will be plenty in the tourism industry who will be praying that PSOE's Francina Armengol is amenable to an approach from the PP to form a coalition (unlikely though this would be).