Thanks, Mr. President

Spain will hold a general election on 9 March. I can already hear the presses being cranked up with the “Vota” posters.

There are two parties that matter in Spain – the PSOE (Partido Socialista Obrero Español) of the current ruling Zapatero administration and the PP (Partido Popular) headed by Mariano Rajoy. Left and right, well sort of. There is a third party, the smaller, communist-led United Left. In addition, there are innumerable other minor parties and groupings, among the more significant being regional parties in Catalonia and the Basque country.

The election promises to be close. At present, the PSOE holds a three percentage point lead in the polls, though Sr. Zapatero enjoys higher personal satisfaction ratings than his main opponent. It could be that the election comes down to this personal popularity.

Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero was launched into presidential office* by surprise, his included. On winning the 2004 election, not only did he look like Mr. Bean, his body language and demeanour were those of an awkward and shy person with a sheepish grin that suggested he was thinking “what the heck do I do now?”. Prior to the win, he had tried – unconvincingly – to do a Mr. Angry act in parliamentary exchanges. There was and is something endearing about him, like a bookish and meek schoolmaster attempting – generally unsuccessfully – to appear tough. Like Tony Blair, he once had the sobriquet “Bambi”. But politicians don’t rise to head political parties without there being some substance, unless that politician happens to be Iain Duncan Smith.
(* The position is President, though in the UK it is common to refer to the Spanish leader as Prime Minister.)

Zapatero is a sympathetic character. Rather like John Major, for any failings, there is a feeling that he is a decent enough bloke, and he has not been exposed with his pants down (or up) with a female member of government. Mariano Rajoy, on the other hand, attracts little in the way of sympathy, albeit that, in the aftermath of the defeat in 2004 when as Jose Maria Aznar’s anointed successor he stood to be the next president, he cut a sad and forlorn figure. And that’s just it with Sr. Rajoy. He looks sad, or is it miserable? Perhaps it’s something to do with the beard. Zapatero’s face can crack into a boyish and somewhat mischievous smile, but Rajoy just looks Mr. Grumpy.

Rajoy has done himself few favours with his absurd categorical rejection of climate change. Certitude in a leader may be an attribute, but not if it is plain wrong. The environment is unlikely to be one of the bigger issues in the election, even if the Government, via its coastal reclaim and demolition plan, has indicated the importance of environmental concerns. But it remains to be seen whether this is just political posturing in currying favour with the environmental lobby.

The election is likely to be fought on two major issues – the economy and terrorism. Spain’s economy has thrived under Zapatero (as it had done under Aznar), but the election’s timing is unfortunate for him. Uncertainty that has clouded the otherwise sunny economic sky is largely not of the Government’s doing nor necessarily within the Government’s control. The European Central Bank’s raising of interest rates was the first cloud, and inflation has stubbornly resisted this. The housing market is in a general downturn, and there is significant indebtedness within certain sectors of the economy – construction not least – and at the consumer level. The US-led credit squeeze was a double whammy on top of the ECB’s intervention.

Terrorism, it is claimed with justification, lost the PP the last election. Or, as importantly, the then Government’s reaction to terrorism lost the election. The Madrid bombings occurred three days before the 2004 election, and Aznar chose to finger the Basque terrorists ETA as the perpetrators. He was of course wrong.

Zapatero had appeared to be making headway with a solution to the Basque issue until ETA broke its truce last summer (which had been effectively ended anyway by the bombing of Madrid airport). The truce had, all along perhaps, been a camouflage for ETA to regroup, and ETA could yet influence the result of this year’s election. It has been argued that Zapatero’s withdrawal of troops from Iraq suggested that he was less than tough on terrorism, and it may (stress may) have triggered a green light to ETA to eventually resume its activities. No one can know for sure. It is a matter of record though that Zapatero opposed Spanish military action in Iraq and that he questioned the legality of the invasion. However, the troop withdrawal was as much a political move for domestic consumption as anything else, a rejection of Aznar’s elevation of Spain into the international arena in support of Bush and Blair, for which he (Aznar) was mercilessly mocked by the Spanish equivalent of “Spitting Image” as “Tony’s little friend” in the style that David Steel once was.

Whether one accepts or not a sort of terrorism-lite approach by Zapatero in any link between the Iraq troop withdrawal decision and subsequent ETA activity, there was a widely held feeling that the withdrawal was at least partly due to the threat of a further outrage by Al-Qaida. As a participant in the fall of Saddam, Spain placed itself in the sights of Bin Laden and his network of cronies (and succumbed to them in the form of the Madrid bombings).

Another issue that may play a part in the election is the Government’s relationship with the Catholic Church. There has been disquiet in conservative religious circles at certain policies such as those regarding same-sex marriages and abortion. But abortion remains subject to strict criteria in Spain, and recent police activity against clinics alleged to have flouted these criteria does not suggest a general softening of approach. The hold of the Catholic Church over the Spanish people is not nearly as strong as one might imagine. Less than 20% of the population attends church on a regular basis. Economic development of the past two decades has made Spain an altogether more secular society. The Church may still have a say, but its voice is heard by fewer and fewer.

Where the Balearics and Mallorca are concerned, the maintenance of a Socialist government in Madrid should be beneficial in that both the national and regional administrations will continue to be governed by leaders of the same party. Zapatero has indicated that more from the central coffers could be coming the Balearics’ way if he wins. Vota PSOE in the Balearics, vota more dosh. Maybe.

Personality counts for so much in current-day politics. Zapatero may not be a Felipe González, a flamboyant Socialist leader and arguably Spain’s pre-eminent post-Franco politician, but he is regarded with some affection. The economy may be the main battleground, but the fight between a likeable politician and a dour one may yet prove to be critical. Likeable versus dour. Now where have I heard that before?


QUIZ
Yesterday – Gene Vincent. Today’s title – no way indicative of my support or not let me point out, and no prizes for knowing Marilyn Monroe, so something easier as a follow-up to yesterday. Who sang “Sweet Gene Vincent”?

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