When I was at school, a general edict was that one could under no circumstances ever use "nice" or "a lot of". To use them on their own carried enough risk as it was. To have combined them, not that one did, would probably have resulted in an invitation to attend the headmaster's study. Only now, with the safety of many years' distance, dare I mention "a nice lot of". Thwack!
"Nice" might therefore have fallen by an etymological wayside, had it not been for "have a nice day". Nice, were it truly ever in danger of lexicological Dodoism, has been rejuvenated. Even test cricketers can be nice, as they are known to "play nicely". Ask Michael Vaughan, if you don't believe me. Ask him what it means, and he'll probably tell you that, erm ... .
There was much to be said for that edict. Meaningless is carelessness. Or put it another way, meaningless is anything you want it to mean, and the carelessness is the consequence of this meaninglessness. It is what the person on the receiving end takes to be the meaning. "A lot of people don't use the word nice." God, really? How many is a lot? Hundreds, thousands, millions? It all depends on interpretation and will almost invariably be wrong. That's careless.
This preamble is by way of introducing you to the following: "European families are seeking to cancel their holidays in Spain." What one can say of this is that it at least abides by the edict. But the absence of anything even vaguely quantifiable may well lead the person on the receiving end to conclude that "a lot of" European families are seeking to cancel and to make a mental note that this lot runs into the thousands or millions, when it might only be the odd hundred (if any). Not quantifying the number presupposes that there is a lot. And to compound this is the fact that "foreign tour operators" are saying this. How many of them are there? Two? Twenty? One hundred and twenty? One has no idea, but apparently they are all saying the same thing: exactly the same words. I don't think so.
The terrorist attacks will clearly deter some people. It is important, though, to know how much is the some who finally choose to indeed cancel. Only armed with actual numbers will we have any idea as to what impact the attacks have had. And, as importantly, where has been affected. I still find it hard to believe, as said two days ago, that the Balearics will be affected, but then those foreign tour operators ... blah, blah, blah.
What we have at present, in addition to the unquantified European families, includes Ada Colau, Barcelona's mayor, saying that there have been "very few" hotel cancellations in the city. So, there haven't been a lot of them. But how few is very few? Meanwhile, the president of the hoteliers' guild in Barcelona, Jordi Clos, says a reaction (a negative one) will soon be seen. He didn't wish to make a prediction and quantify the fall. What might it be? Very few, a few, some, a fair number, or a lot? We are left to wallow in vagueness and attempt to apply meaning to the meaningless. And in the process, there can be carelessness from misinterpreting this vagueness. One would be to over-emphasise the impact, the other would be to underestimate it and wrongly fail to apply remedial and preventive measures.
We are fed a constant barrage of facts that have little or no quantifiable meaning, but even when a quantity is offered, we can be forgiven either for not believing it or for shrugging our shoulders with a bewildered or indifferent so-what. I give as examples all the tourist spending stats. According to these, spending is up, then along comes an association like Acotur and says it isn't. Between twenty and thirty per cent of tourist businesses (bars, shops and so on, but not hotels) say spending is down. So, which do we believe? It will largely depend on what we want to believe. The fact is that the facts are usually elusive. We never get a true picture or one that we genuinely feel we can believe.
But if we want to get a feel for the state of the tourism economy, there are some very hard facts, and they have nothing to do with spending or terrorism. They are to do with prices. Look at examples of these and I defy anyone not to conclude that bookings for 2018 may be affected, and not in a positive way. But by how much? A lot? A bit?
I have a "fact" related to this, which I shall leave hanging for now, but it is somewhat startling. I shall share it tomorrow. Is it a lot? Yes. Is it nice? No. Whatever nice means.
Showing posts with label Terrorism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Terrorism. Show all posts
Friday, August 25, 2017
Tuesday, August 22, 2017
Tourism Unity In The Face Of Terrorism
Nice is the fifth most populous city in France. It has the third busiest airport: Paris has the two busiest. Palma is the eighth most populous city in Spain. It has the third busiest airport: Madrid and Barcelona are the two busiest.
On Bastille Day last year, as if you need reminding, a lorry was driven into crowds on the Promenade des Anglais in Nice. Eighty-six people lost their lives. In the immediate aftermath of this terrorist attack, the number of visitors went down, as well you might have expected them to have done. But they started to come back, just as they started to return to Paris. By April of this year, French tourism in general was rebounding. France remains the world's top tourist destination.
Tourism is remarkably resilient. The Mediterranean countries affected by terrorism are showing signs of recovery, and they are ones for which there may be general perceptions that they are less inherently safe than, say, France or Spain. Given such perceptions, terrorism in Spain, one feels, will not have a major impact. Even in Nice, although the number of tourists fell, the promenade was back to its bustling self within a matter of days: Helen Welford, writing in the New Statesman, who spends part of the year in Nice, reported this to have been the case.
Palma, because of the population and the airport, bears some similarity with Nice. One thing it doesn't share is a terrorist atrocity. The last time there were any terrorist incidents in Mallorca, they did affect some parts of Palma, but the greatest effect was felt in Palmanova. In 2009, two Guardia Civil officers were blown up by a bomb planted on their patrol vehicle. The bombs that subsequently went off in Palma had negligible impact.
These were the work of ETA, a very different type of terrorist threat to the one posed by so-called jihadists. After those bombs went off, the travel editor of The Sun crassly opined that they signalled some form of end to tourism. When terrorism occurs, cool heads are needed; not hysterical over-reaction. The effect on tourism was more or less non-existent. Tourists themselves tended to react with resignation: the sort of the thing that could happen anywhere. Quite, but a bomb directed at the Guardia Civil isn't the same as a lorry ploughing into people on a crowded promenade.
Inevitably, the Barcelona attack has raised questions about Mallorca and its tourism. Of course it will raise questions, but questions were there before. There is no reason why Barcelona should have any impact on Mallorca. In Barcelona itself, there will be concerns, but Santi Vila, the Catalonian business minister, says there have been no cancellations or changes of plan. He may be over optimistic in this regard, but as the president of the European Tour Operators Association notes, there were very few cancellations in the UK because of terrorist incidents.
He, Tom Jenkins, accepts that some people may decide in the short term that they don't want to go to Barcelona (or indeed Spain), but he anticipates only a minor impact. He also makes the point that travellers are aware that terrorism can occur anywhere. No, it isn't the same as the ETA bombs, but the resignation and understanding are much the same.
What Barcelona will have done, though, is to undermine the reputation of safety in Spain as a whole. It is this reputation, with Mallorca very much to the fore, that has led to all the "borrowed" tourists and therefore the steep rise in tourism numbers. Any reduction in those borrowed numbers, one would suggest, will owe little or nothing to the Barcelona attack. Of greater relevance will be the recovery of other destinations and increased prices. Bizarrely enough, one sees comments on social media of anti-tourist protests being a factor. This is bizarre when set against acts of terrorism.
But these protests, and their impact, owe much to the same sort of hysterical media coverage as The Sun displayed in 2009. There needs to be some perspective, but in the pursuit of sensationalism, perspective goes out the window. Elements of the British media (and German) have long loved to try and do Mallorca down. Perhaps it should be taken as a compliment for the island's success.
The protests, however, should be considered in the context of the Barcelona attack. Considered by politicians, that is. The narratives of some, which it can be argued have helped to fuel anti-tourism sentiment, need to alter. Put into the context of terrorism, these narratives are pathetic. Saturation and massification do not kill anyone. It is more important than ever to portray a sympathetic face to tourism, not one that can appear indifferent or hostile.
Palma is similar to Nice. God forbid that it becomes any more similar.
On Bastille Day last year, as if you need reminding, a lorry was driven into crowds on the Promenade des Anglais in Nice. Eighty-six people lost their lives. In the immediate aftermath of this terrorist attack, the number of visitors went down, as well you might have expected them to have done. But they started to come back, just as they started to return to Paris. By April of this year, French tourism in general was rebounding. France remains the world's top tourist destination.
Tourism is remarkably resilient. The Mediterranean countries affected by terrorism are showing signs of recovery, and they are ones for which there may be general perceptions that they are less inherently safe than, say, France or Spain. Given such perceptions, terrorism in Spain, one feels, will not have a major impact. Even in Nice, although the number of tourists fell, the promenade was back to its bustling self within a matter of days: Helen Welford, writing in the New Statesman, who spends part of the year in Nice, reported this to have been the case.
Palma, because of the population and the airport, bears some similarity with Nice. One thing it doesn't share is a terrorist atrocity. The last time there were any terrorist incidents in Mallorca, they did affect some parts of Palma, but the greatest effect was felt in Palmanova. In 2009, two Guardia Civil officers were blown up by a bomb planted on their patrol vehicle. The bombs that subsequently went off in Palma had negligible impact.
These were the work of ETA, a very different type of terrorist threat to the one posed by so-called jihadists. After those bombs went off, the travel editor of The Sun crassly opined that they signalled some form of end to tourism. When terrorism occurs, cool heads are needed; not hysterical over-reaction. The effect on tourism was more or less non-existent. Tourists themselves tended to react with resignation: the sort of the thing that could happen anywhere. Quite, but a bomb directed at the Guardia Civil isn't the same as a lorry ploughing into people on a crowded promenade.
Inevitably, the Barcelona attack has raised questions about Mallorca and its tourism. Of course it will raise questions, but questions were there before. There is no reason why Barcelona should have any impact on Mallorca. In Barcelona itself, there will be concerns, but Santi Vila, the Catalonian business minister, says there have been no cancellations or changes of plan. He may be over optimistic in this regard, but as the president of the European Tour Operators Association notes, there were very few cancellations in the UK because of terrorist incidents.
He, Tom Jenkins, accepts that some people may decide in the short term that they don't want to go to Barcelona (or indeed Spain), but he anticipates only a minor impact. He also makes the point that travellers are aware that terrorism can occur anywhere. No, it isn't the same as the ETA bombs, but the resignation and understanding are much the same.
What Barcelona will have done, though, is to undermine the reputation of safety in Spain as a whole. It is this reputation, with Mallorca very much to the fore, that has led to all the "borrowed" tourists and therefore the steep rise in tourism numbers. Any reduction in those borrowed numbers, one would suggest, will owe little or nothing to the Barcelona attack. Of greater relevance will be the recovery of other destinations and increased prices. Bizarrely enough, one sees comments on social media of anti-tourist protests being a factor. This is bizarre when set against acts of terrorism.
But these protests, and their impact, owe much to the same sort of hysterical media coverage as The Sun displayed in 2009. There needs to be some perspective, but in the pursuit of sensationalism, perspective goes out the window. Elements of the British media (and German) have long loved to try and do Mallorca down. Perhaps it should be taken as a compliment for the island's success.
The protests, however, should be considered in the context of the Barcelona attack. Considered by politicians, that is. The narratives of some, which it can be argued have helped to fuel anti-tourism sentiment, need to alter. Put into the context of terrorism, these narratives are pathetic. Saturation and massification do not kill anyone. It is more important than ever to portray a sympathetic face to tourism, not one that can appear indifferent or hostile.
Palma is similar to Nice. God forbid that it becomes any more similar.
Tuesday, June 13, 2017
How Safe Is Your Hotel?
Nine summers ago, two bombs exploded at beaches in Cantabria in northern Spain. There was a third bomb, which went off outside a branch of Barclays Bank. The devices had been planted by ETA.
None of these bombs caused any injuries. The Guardia Civil had acted on a call to the emergency services from someone who said they represented ETA. The two beaches were those of Laredo and Noja. The areas where the bombs had been planted were cordoned off. The one in Laredo was in sand next to the promenade. The other at Noja was in the dunes.
The locations were chosen because they are popular summer destinations for the Spanish. Cantabria's coast is not one that attracts a high number of foreign tourists. For ETA, its actions were against Spain. Terrorists they were, but theirs was a terror of an interior kind. They weren't exporters, except to France on a couple of occasions. Where foreigners were concerned, they could be targets, if only incidentally. In the summer of 2001, for instance, an ETA militant accidentally blew himself up in Torrevieja; seven people were injured. Three weeks later, a huge car bomb went off in Salou. There were no casualties.
A year on from the bombs in Cantabria, two officers with the Guardia Civil, Carlos Sáenz and Diego Salva, were killed in Palmanova when a bomb that had been placed in a patrol vehicle exploded. ETA terrorism had come to Mallorca, though to be accurate it had come to the island fourteen years before. On that occasion it had failed. Three ETA terrorists, who were renting an apartment near to the Marivent Palace under a false name, were arrested and found to have three submachine guns, two pistols, a rifle with telescopic sight and explosive devices. Their intended target had been the then king, Juan Carlos. They had arrived with their weaponry on a yacht.
Following the Palmanova bomb, four minor devices went off in parts of Palma. A response to them was to install cameras trained on certain beaches in Mallorca. There was to be a fuss about these. The tourism ministry had organised the installations. It hadn't asked for permission to train cameras on the public way. Later it emerged that there was something slightly dubious about the contract for the work; but that was how the tourism ministry was at that time.
The reason for these cameras was a fear that ETA might bomb beaches in the way that it had the previous summer. The fear was to prove to have been unfounded. But the fear resurfaced last year; at least where parts of the more hysterical British press were concerned. So-called Islamic State were going to bomb beaches.
We have had further hysteria this year. The SAS, for example, will be patrolling resorts. Or this was the conclusion one was supposed to draw. It was as preposterous as it was insulting in its implication that Spain's security forces were in need of assistance. These forces have enormous experience. Cooperation, advice and information sharing with British forces, yes; of course, yes. Special British forces on the streets? Hardly.
Security, it is an obvious thing to state, is a high priority for tourists. Mallorca has been reaping the benefits (some will argue the downsides) of terrorism in other parts of the Med. A great deal of emphasis is placed on the island's safety, but there can be no room for complacency.
Beaches and other public places are one thing; hotels are another. The president of the hoteliers federation, Inma Benito, says that hotel security has improved a great deal, although she adds that she is unaware of some hotels organising anti-terrorism audits. Apparently, there are specialist firms which will be conducting these. They will be looking, for example, at access controls, i.e. who comes and goes, and at exterior protection, such as barriers. There are to be other checks - rubbish containers, the level and type of surveillance and so on.
Hotels differ. Some are more easily protectable than others. Some offer open invitations, and not just to buildings; grounds, pools, restaurants, entertainment sites as well. Without naming them, I can think of any number of hotels which can be entered from the beach without any form of control. One just walks straight in. There's no need to enter via reception because access is available at the rear. One complex has public roads going through it. There is no actual entrance because of the nature of the complex. Security? Well, what security, one may well ask.
Accordingly, there is a great deal of vulnerability. But at least with the hotels, there is some control over who is staying in them. The events of 1995 and the failed terrorist attack highlight issues that we have today. Hiring an apartment. Hotels provide guest identity information to the police. They are obliged to. Holiday rentals? Could be anyone.
None of these bombs caused any injuries. The Guardia Civil had acted on a call to the emergency services from someone who said they represented ETA. The two beaches were those of Laredo and Noja. The areas where the bombs had been planted were cordoned off. The one in Laredo was in sand next to the promenade. The other at Noja was in the dunes.
The locations were chosen because they are popular summer destinations for the Spanish. Cantabria's coast is not one that attracts a high number of foreign tourists. For ETA, its actions were against Spain. Terrorists they were, but theirs was a terror of an interior kind. They weren't exporters, except to France on a couple of occasions. Where foreigners were concerned, they could be targets, if only incidentally. In the summer of 2001, for instance, an ETA militant accidentally blew himself up in Torrevieja; seven people were injured. Three weeks later, a huge car bomb went off in Salou. There were no casualties.
A year on from the bombs in Cantabria, two officers with the Guardia Civil, Carlos Sáenz and Diego Salva, were killed in Palmanova when a bomb that had been placed in a patrol vehicle exploded. ETA terrorism had come to Mallorca, though to be accurate it had come to the island fourteen years before. On that occasion it had failed. Three ETA terrorists, who were renting an apartment near to the Marivent Palace under a false name, were arrested and found to have three submachine guns, two pistols, a rifle with telescopic sight and explosive devices. Their intended target had been the then king, Juan Carlos. They had arrived with their weaponry on a yacht.
Following the Palmanova bomb, four minor devices went off in parts of Palma. A response to them was to install cameras trained on certain beaches in Mallorca. There was to be a fuss about these. The tourism ministry had organised the installations. It hadn't asked for permission to train cameras on the public way. Later it emerged that there was something slightly dubious about the contract for the work; but that was how the tourism ministry was at that time.
The reason for these cameras was a fear that ETA might bomb beaches in the way that it had the previous summer. The fear was to prove to have been unfounded. But the fear resurfaced last year; at least where parts of the more hysterical British press were concerned. So-called Islamic State were going to bomb beaches.
We have had further hysteria this year. The SAS, for example, will be patrolling resorts. Or this was the conclusion one was supposed to draw. It was as preposterous as it was insulting in its implication that Spain's security forces were in need of assistance. These forces have enormous experience. Cooperation, advice and information sharing with British forces, yes; of course, yes. Special British forces on the streets? Hardly.
Security, it is an obvious thing to state, is a high priority for tourists. Mallorca has been reaping the benefits (some will argue the downsides) of terrorism in other parts of the Med. A great deal of emphasis is placed on the island's safety, but there can be no room for complacency.
Beaches and other public places are one thing; hotels are another. The president of the hoteliers federation, Inma Benito, says that hotel security has improved a great deal, although she adds that she is unaware of some hotels organising anti-terrorism audits. Apparently, there are specialist firms which will be conducting these. They will be looking, for example, at access controls, i.e. who comes and goes, and at exterior protection, such as barriers. There are to be other checks - rubbish containers, the level and type of surveillance and so on.
Hotels differ. Some are more easily protectable than others. Some offer open invitations, and not just to buildings; grounds, pools, restaurants, entertainment sites as well. Without naming them, I can think of any number of hotels which can be entered from the beach without any form of control. One just walks straight in. There's no need to enter via reception because access is available at the rear. One complex has public roads going through it. There is no actual entrance because of the nature of the complex. Security? Well, what security, one may well ask.
Accordingly, there is a great deal of vulnerability. But at least with the hotels, there is some control over who is staying in them. The events of 1995 and the failed terrorist attack highlight issues that we have today. Hiring an apartment. Hotels provide guest identity information to the police. They are obliged to. Holiday rentals? Could be anyone.
Friday, April 22, 2016
Mallorca, Terrorism And Tourists
The arrest of the IS suspect in Palma this week contributed to a flurry of overseas media hysteria. "Good Morning Britain", so I'm told (never see it), got in on the alleged summer terrorist target bandwagon of the "Daily Mail" and others. This story with "reliable" sources included the ever so reliable "Bild", a newspaper that veers between bland profiles of the Paradise Island and every available opportunity to stick the boot in. As evidence, one could cite the time that Mallorca (and specifically Playa de Palma because of its strong German association) was the source of bird flu in Germany. It wasn't.
It is inevitable that such stories do get whipped up, however wide of the mark they might be. One recalls how the travel editor of "The Sun" forecast the virtual end of tourism as we know it in light of the Palmanova bombing and murder of two Guardia officers and the subsequent very minor bomb incidents. All the work of ETA, her analysis was all the more ridiculous for having come from someone with her job title.
This isn't to downplay a possible threat. It would be equally ridiculous to state categorically that there could not be an incident. The world doesn't work like this, more's the pity. But however good the Spanish security forces are with intelligence and operations (and they are good), consideration will surely be being given to extra measures. One of these might be, despite authorities being loathe to introduce them, cameras on beaches.
While these do exist for certain specific reasons, they are not deployed in a general sense. Privacy dominates the thinking and rightly so. But it might be remembered that following the Palmanova bombing there were cameras installed which were trained on certain beaches in Mallorca. They ended up creating a rumpus, not least because the tourism ministry, whose idea it was, had not sought permission to install them. Its justification lay with an old threat from ETA to do precisely what is now once again being spoken of: bombs on beaches.
Meanwhile, and also inevitably, the overseas media cottoned on, rather slowly it has to be said, to the anti-tourist graffiti in Palma. It finally made the pages of British ("The Telegraph", for instance), Swedish and Dutch newspapers and also those of Germany's "Stern" and "Die Welt". But was it correct, as one publication had it, that there is "fury" being directed towards tourists? Though I drew attention the other day to the potential rise in the "tourismphobia" phenomenon, it needs reiterating that the graffiti was the work, in all likelihood, of a couple of what one local Spanish paper here referred to as "imbeciles". Where such fury may or may not exist, I would suggest, is mainly confined to Palma and the city, the consequence of the inundations from cruise ships and the takeover of private accommodation.
It is inevitable that such stories do get whipped up, however wide of the mark they might be. One recalls how the travel editor of "The Sun" forecast the virtual end of tourism as we know it in light of the Palmanova bombing and murder of two Guardia officers and the subsequent very minor bomb incidents. All the work of ETA, her analysis was all the more ridiculous for having come from someone with her job title.
This isn't to downplay a possible threat. It would be equally ridiculous to state categorically that there could not be an incident. The world doesn't work like this, more's the pity. But however good the Spanish security forces are with intelligence and operations (and they are good), consideration will surely be being given to extra measures. One of these might be, despite authorities being loathe to introduce them, cameras on beaches.
While these do exist for certain specific reasons, they are not deployed in a general sense. Privacy dominates the thinking and rightly so. But it might be remembered that following the Palmanova bombing there were cameras installed which were trained on certain beaches in Mallorca. They ended up creating a rumpus, not least because the tourism ministry, whose idea it was, had not sought permission to install them. Its justification lay with an old threat from ETA to do precisely what is now once again being spoken of: bombs on beaches.
Meanwhile, and also inevitably, the overseas media cottoned on, rather slowly it has to be said, to the anti-tourist graffiti in Palma. It finally made the pages of British ("The Telegraph", for instance), Swedish and Dutch newspapers and also those of Germany's "Stern" and "Die Welt". But was it correct, as one publication had it, that there is "fury" being directed towards tourists? Though I drew attention the other day to the potential rise in the "tourismphobia" phenomenon, it needs reiterating that the graffiti was the work, in all likelihood, of a couple of what one local Spanish paper here referred to as "imbeciles". Where such fury may or may not exist, I would suggest, is mainly confined to Palma and the city, the consequence of the inundations from cruise ships and the takeover of private accommodation.
Saturday, August 01, 2009
Flailing Around
You have to get things into perspective. In terms of atrocity, two police officers dead is not on a grand terrorist scale; two police officers representative of the enemy where ETA is concerned. This was not an atrocity directed at others. That it took place in a tourism centre fuels publicity, which is of course the stuff of the terrorist. It could, though, have been anywhere; it just happened to be Palmanova. Cue the irrelevant and fatuous remarks along the lines of things like that don't happen there. Of course they do. Things happen, shit happens anywhere. Bombings on Mallorca are far less likely to occur than on the mainland because of the very fact of it being an island, and presenting the terrorist with logistical difficulties, not least of which is the route to escape. As a counter view to this, the "El Mundo" website has polled its visitors and asked them if ETA could count on logistical support in Mallorca - three-quarters say yes. Whatever. That the bombing did occur in Palmanova may have had something to do with the relative proximity down the road of the royal family in summer residence; the Guardia station in Palmanova was probably a soft target compared with ones in Palma.
But the very fact of a terrorist incident is bound to create a burst of discussion - in the media, across a coffee, wherever. Inevitably it does. That such incidents are played out in real time nowadays heightens the sense of shock and, among some, paranoia. But one still needs to retain that sense of perspective. One report - from "The Bulletin" - drew a comparison with the scene in Palmanova with that in New York. This is absurd. It is also dangerous as it creates the wrong sense of perspective, one of a major outrage - a Mumbai, a Madrid, a Bali or of course a World Trade Center. The same report alluded to fears that there might be further bombs. Why would there be? Well, there was one, but ETA does not go around performing mass, co-ordinated attacks in the style of Al-Qaeda. This is a terrorist group flailing around in an attempt to bolster its shot-through organisation. Publicity, concern it has caused, but let's retain that perspective. The chances of there being another bomb in Mallorca must be considered remote. This does not stop even "The Times" raising the temperature of hyperbole, referring to fears of a "summer of violence". It ought to know better.
After the event, there are questions that need to be asked. The first concerns intelligence and vigilance. Intelligence failures are not uncommon, as one knows from UK experience, but on an island the size of Mallorca one does have to wonder as to how a unit or individual can operate. It is highly unlikely that this was the work of a sleeper or sleepers. In light of the explosion at Burgos and the proximity of the 50 years of ETA's founding, what level of alert and what procedures were in place at all Guardia installations? The Guardia's vehicles are commonly parked in the open, on streets in many cases. To have planted a bomb would have meant its being attached under the noses of the Guardia, presumably at night. Where is their own security?
There have been conflicting reports as to how the bomb was detonated. By remote control seems most unlikely. Car bombs are now typically attached magnetically and respond to doors being opened, to pedals being pressed or to movement. Rarely are they triggered by the ignition being turned on. The magnetic attachment requires less time as well (and the latest is that this was indeed the style of bomb). One has to presume that the bomb in Palmanova was placed at some time during the night. A further question that arises, therefore, is the time between its being placed and its explosion. This may not be unimportant. If the bomber was looking to ensure that he or she was off the island, he or she would need a fair time frame, one during which he or she could be well away, possibly even back on the peninsula. Were certain vehicles at Palmanova known to be routinely used only at around two in the afternoon? If so, how? It is, however, speculation that the bombers are off the island. Word has it that they are not.
UPDATE (09:30, 01.08)
Well, well, forget some of the above. The vehicle had been used that day - in Palma and then in Calvia. Either the bomb was very well hidden or it was attached in broad daylight. This changes things. If it had been hidden, it would probably have had to have been detonated in a way that was not dependent upon motion or one of the other typical forms of detonation, i.e. remote or possibly with a mobile phone. If it was attached in broad daylight, then there was clearly a failure of security, a fact being accepted in any event. The likelihood is growing that the bombers are still on the island, and checks are being made on flats for rent. The hypothesis is that there was/is a "commando stable" now holed up in a flat, waiting for things to calm down.
QUIZ
Yesterday's title - "Star", Primal Scream, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAANDIe4T7M. Today's title - this comes from one of the all-time great songs.
(PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)
But the very fact of a terrorist incident is bound to create a burst of discussion - in the media, across a coffee, wherever. Inevitably it does. That such incidents are played out in real time nowadays heightens the sense of shock and, among some, paranoia. But one still needs to retain that sense of perspective. One report - from "The Bulletin" - drew a comparison with the scene in Palmanova with that in New York. This is absurd. It is also dangerous as it creates the wrong sense of perspective, one of a major outrage - a Mumbai, a Madrid, a Bali or of course a World Trade Center. The same report alluded to fears that there might be further bombs. Why would there be? Well, there was one, but ETA does not go around performing mass, co-ordinated attacks in the style of Al-Qaeda. This is a terrorist group flailing around in an attempt to bolster its shot-through organisation. Publicity, concern it has caused, but let's retain that perspective. The chances of there being another bomb in Mallorca must be considered remote. This does not stop even "The Times" raising the temperature of hyperbole, referring to fears of a "summer of violence". It ought to know better.
After the event, there are questions that need to be asked. The first concerns intelligence and vigilance. Intelligence failures are not uncommon, as one knows from UK experience, but on an island the size of Mallorca one does have to wonder as to how a unit or individual can operate. It is highly unlikely that this was the work of a sleeper or sleepers. In light of the explosion at Burgos and the proximity of the 50 years of ETA's founding, what level of alert and what procedures were in place at all Guardia installations? The Guardia's vehicles are commonly parked in the open, on streets in many cases. To have planted a bomb would have meant its being attached under the noses of the Guardia, presumably at night. Where is their own security?
There have been conflicting reports as to how the bomb was detonated. By remote control seems most unlikely. Car bombs are now typically attached magnetically and respond to doors being opened, to pedals being pressed or to movement. Rarely are they triggered by the ignition being turned on. The magnetic attachment requires less time as well (and the latest is that this was indeed the style of bomb). One has to presume that the bomb in Palmanova was placed at some time during the night. A further question that arises, therefore, is the time between its being placed and its explosion. This may not be unimportant. If the bomber was looking to ensure that he or she was off the island, he or she would need a fair time frame, one during which he or she could be well away, possibly even back on the peninsula. Were certain vehicles at Palmanova known to be routinely used only at around two in the afternoon? If so, how? It is, however, speculation that the bombers are off the island. Word has it that they are not.
UPDATE (09:30, 01.08)
Well, well, forget some of the above. The vehicle had been used that day - in Palma and then in Calvia. Either the bomb was very well hidden or it was attached in broad daylight. This changes things. If it had been hidden, it would probably have had to have been detonated in a way that was not dependent upon motion or one of the other typical forms of detonation, i.e. remote or possibly with a mobile phone. If it was attached in broad daylight, then there was clearly a failure of security, a fact being accepted in any event. The likelihood is growing that the bombers are still on the island, and checks are being made on flats for rent. The hypothesis is that there was/is a "commando stable" now holed up in a flat, waiting for things to calm down.
QUIZ
Yesterday's title - "Star", Primal Scream, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAANDIe4T7M. Today's title - this comes from one of the all-time great songs.
(PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)
Friday, July 31, 2009
One Man's Freedom Fighter ...
And so ETA has brought its bombs to the tourist areas of Mallorca. It is not the first time that ETA has committed an outrage on the island; the bomb yesterday in Palmanova coincided with the eighteenth anniversary of two car bombings in Palma. It is also fifty years since ETA was formed, a fact that was "celebrated" by the bomb in Burgos. Some celebration.
Two Guardia Civil officers lost their lives in Palmanova; the bomb appears to have been placed under their Nissan Patrol vehicle. The Guardia acted swifty; hotels were closed, residents told not to leave their homes, the airport put on the highest level of security, closing it for a time, and helicopter and coastal patrols put into full action. While the outrage was a direct attack on the forces of law - as was the case also in Burgos - it was also in a tourist area. That is not a normal modus operandi for ETA; or it had previously had not been.
One supposes that this will all lead some to question whether it is safe to come on holiday. It might be understandable, but it would not make sense. There is no suggestion at all that tourists are targets; indeed the very notion is both extremely remote and extremely unlikely. ETA has a beef with the Spanish state, and the Guardia Civil is a personification of the state as well as being ETA's "enemy". The Guardia and the National Police are highly skilled anti-terrorist bodies. Alongside their British police counterparts, they rank as the most adept anti-terrorist forces in Europe; they, like the British security forces, have had a lot of practice.
The national president, Zapatero, sought to engage ETA. A ceasefire was formed, but ETA broke it, probably because it had regrouped, having used the ceasefire for that purpose. Why does ETA persist? It's the same question that was asked of the IRA, yet the Irish question had been posed for very much longer than the Basque one. The ETA cause is, for some, not totally dishonourable, but it is infused with a deluded romanticism - the terrorist as martyr in support of a mystical homeland - one combined with psychopathic criminality and without mass support. It is anachronistic within the context of a contemporary Spain, kicking at invisible proscription; invisible because none exists. It is a potent cause for idealists, for fanatics, but it is also totally and utterly futile.
Alcúdia train
Meanwhile, the Alcúdia train saga drags on and on. It is, or appears to be as much as anything a stand-off between two political sides - the Unió Mallorquina, of which Alcúdia's mayor is a member and the so-called Bloc of which the transport minister is a member. The UM wants the southern route, the one to terminate in Puerto Alcúdia, and the Bloc wants the northern route into the town.
The Partido Popular is getting in on the act, probably rightly so as it is expressing concern that the failure to arrive at an agreement could mean that the funds which have been promised might be made unavailable. In other words, those in central government could get hacked off and kill off the whole project, which would be very unsatisfactory to say the least. The PP is also talking of an amendment to the recent Decreto Grimalt in respect of environmental protection aspects that might currently prevent the northern route.
PALMANOVA BOMBING - UPDATES (09:00, 31.07)
Three days of mourning have been announced by the president of the Balearic Government, Francesc Antich.
Everything at the points of entry and exit is more or less normal again. The airport was closed for only two hours, pressure being applied by tourism sources to get things back to normal as soon as possible. Alcúdia port was closed for a time, as were main roads in and out of the town with vehicles being subject to police checks.
There is concern for the impact on tourism, but it is being pointed out that other destinations - Egypt and Turkey - have suffered terrorist acts and not experienced any great harm to tourism. Indeed the attack in Mallorca is far less obviously aimed at tourism than those in these other countries.
The British Foreign Office has raised its advice in respect of travel to Spain to high risk, which seems like an over-reaction. Yes there may be a risk of a further attack, but once again one stresses that tourists are not in the firing-line.
A second bomb was discovered under another Guardia vehicle. It was detonated using a controlled explosion.
UPDATE (14:00, 31.07)
Six suspects named. Photos on http://www.diariodemallorca.es
UPDATE (18:30, 31.07)
The delegate for the Balearics to the central government has said that he believes that the bomber or bombers are still on the island. The interior ministry has not confirmed this.
UPDATE (21:00, 31.07)
"Rings of steel" imposed by the Guardia at the airport and ports, including Alcúdia, to check all movement of vehicles. Checks on ID etc. Demonstration involving 6000 people in Palmanova against the terrorists.
UPDATE (23:15, 31.07)
Studies of the second bomb suggest that it, like the killing bomb, was a "limpet", i.e. magnetically attached. A conclusion is that this would have given the bombers ample chance to get away from the scene.
QUIZ
Yesterday's title - Godspell, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdEuwqlZdto. Today's title - "is another's terrorist"; one of the greatest songs by a group more commonly known for a more extreme rock style.
(PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)
Index for July 2009
ABC1 socioeconomic groups - 15 July 2009
Alcúdia town hall history - 16 July 2009
Alcúdia's population - 9 July 2009
All-inclusives - 15 July 2009
Beata 2009 - 21 July 2009
Bellevue, tour operators pull out of - 28 July 2009
Bingo - 14 July 2009
Boat taxation - 10 July 2009
Bony - 28 July 2009
Botellón - 26 July 2009
Building laws - 5 July 2009, 8 July 2009
Can Picafort frontline upgrade - 17 July 2009
Christians and Moors, Pollensa 2009 - 20 July 2009, 23 July 2009
Don Pedro Hotel, Cala San Vicente - 24 July 2009
ESRA - 11 July 2009
ETA - 31 July 2009
Fiestas - 3 July 2009, 4 July 2009, 14 July 2009, 16 July 2009, 20 July 2009, 21 July 2009, 23 July 2009, 25 July 2009, 26 July 2009
Heatwave - 24 July 2009
Hotel low occupancy - 12 July 2009
Joan March - 19 July 2009
Ley de Costas - 5 July 2009, 8 July 2009
Mallorca expensive? - 7 July 2009, 27 July 2009, 29 July 2009
Mallorcan society - 3 July 2009, 9 July 2009, 21 July 2009, 26 July 2009
Miss Baleares - 29 July 2009
Monarch's beach in Birmingham - 25 July 2009
Muro's new mayor - 6 July 2009
Musicals - 10 July 2009
Palmanova bombing - 31 July 2009
Patrona 2009 - 20 July 2009, 23 July 2009
Playa de Muro hoteliers - 8 July 2009
Polish tourists, trouble caused by - 24 July 2009
Pollensa town hall contracts - 30 July 2009
Pollensa town hall finances - 18 July 2009, 25 July 2009
Puerto Alcúdia's commercial port - 10 July 2009, 11 July 2009
Puerto Pollensa military base Civil War memorial - 2 July 2009
Puerto Pollensa not like it was - 1 July 2009
Puerto Pollensa old school - 28 July 2009
Pumpkins - 19 July 2009
Rain - 11 July 2009
Road accidents - 14 July 2009
Road names, Franco associations - 19 July 2009
Sa Pobla-Alcúdia train - 31 July 2009
Salt lands, Puerto Alcúdia - 5 July 2009
Sant Jaume fiesta, Alcúdia - 16 July 2009, 26 July 2009
Son Bosc golf development - 17 July 2009
Souvenir shops - 27 July 2009
Swine flu - 16 July 2009, 22 July 2009
To Holiday holiday club - 18 July 2009
Tourism economy - 12 July 2009
Tourism promotion - 25 July 2009
Tourism spend - 30 July 2009
Unió Mallorquina - 13 July 2009
Youth drinking - 26 July 2009
Two Guardia Civil officers lost their lives in Palmanova; the bomb appears to have been placed under their Nissan Patrol vehicle. The Guardia acted swifty; hotels were closed, residents told not to leave their homes, the airport put on the highest level of security, closing it for a time, and helicopter and coastal patrols put into full action. While the outrage was a direct attack on the forces of law - as was the case also in Burgos - it was also in a tourist area. That is not a normal modus operandi for ETA; or it had previously had not been.
One supposes that this will all lead some to question whether it is safe to come on holiday. It might be understandable, but it would not make sense. There is no suggestion at all that tourists are targets; indeed the very notion is both extremely remote and extremely unlikely. ETA has a beef with the Spanish state, and the Guardia Civil is a personification of the state as well as being ETA's "enemy". The Guardia and the National Police are highly skilled anti-terrorist bodies. Alongside their British police counterparts, they rank as the most adept anti-terrorist forces in Europe; they, like the British security forces, have had a lot of practice.
The national president, Zapatero, sought to engage ETA. A ceasefire was formed, but ETA broke it, probably because it had regrouped, having used the ceasefire for that purpose. Why does ETA persist? It's the same question that was asked of the IRA, yet the Irish question had been posed for very much longer than the Basque one. The ETA cause is, for some, not totally dishonourable, but it is infused with a deluded romanticism - the terrorist as martyr in support of a mystical homeland - one combined with psychopathic criminality and without mass support. It is anachronistic within the context of a contemporary Spain, kicking at invisible proscription; invisible because none exists. It is a potent cause for idealists, for fanatics, but it is also totally and utterly futile.
Alcúdia train
Meanwhile, the Alcúdia train saga drags on and on. It is, or appears to be as much as anything a stand-off between two political sides - the Unió Mallorquina, of which Alcúdia's mayor is a member and the so-called Bloc of which the transport minister is a member. The UM wants the southern route, the one to terminate in Puerto Alcúdia, and the Bloc wants the northern route into the town.
The Partido Popular is getting in on the act, probably rightly so as it is expressing concern that the failure to arrive at an agreement could mean that the funds which have been promised might be made unavailable. In other words, those in central government could get hacked off and kill off the whole project, which would be very unsatisfactory to say the least. The PP is also talking of an amendment to the recent Decreto Grimalt in respect of environmental protection aspects that might currently prevent the northern route.
PALMANOVA BOMBING - UPDATES (09:00, 31.07)
Three days of mourning have been announced by the president of the Balearic Government, Francesc Antich.
Everything at the points of entry and exit is more or less normal again. The airport was closed for only two hours, pressure being applied by tourism sources to get things back to normal as soon as possible. Alcúdia port was closed for a time, as were main roads in and out of the town with vehicles being subject to police checks.
There is concern for the impact on tourism, but it is being pointed out that other destinations - Egypt and Turkey - have suffered terrorist acts and not experienced any great harm to tourism. Indeed the attack in Mallorca is far less obviously aimed at tourism than those in these other countries.
The British Foreign Office has raised its advice in respect of travel to Spain to high risk, which seems like an over-reaction. Yes there may be a risk of a further attack, but once again one stresses that tourists are not in the firing-line.
A second bomb was discovered under another Guardia vehicle. It was detonated using a controlled explosion.
UPDATE (14:00, 31.07)
Six suspects named. Photos on http://www.diariodemallorca.es
UPDATE (18:30, 31.07)
The delegate for the Balearics to the central government has said that he believes that the bomber or bombers are still on the island. The interior ministry has not confirmed this.
UPDATE (21:00, 31.07)
"Rings of steel" imposed by the Guardia at the airport and ports, including Alcúdia, to check all movement of vehicles. Checks on ID etc. Demonstration involving 6000 people in Palmanova against the terrorists.
UPDATE (23:15, 31.07)
Studies of the second bomb suggest that it, like the killing bomb, was a "limpet", i.e. magnetically attached. A conclusion is that this would have given the bombers ample chance to get away from the scene.
QUIZ
Yesterday's title - Godspell, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdEuwqlZdto. Today's title - "is another's terrorist"; one of the greatest songs by a group more commonly known for a more extreme rock style.
(PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)
Index for July 2009
ABC1 socioeconomic groups - 15 July 2009
Alcúdia town hall history - 16 July 2009
Alcúdia's population - 9 July 2009
All-inclusives - 15 July 2009
Beata 2009 - 21 July 2009
Bellevue, tour operators pull out of - 28 July 2009
Bingo - 14 July 2009
Boat taxation - 10 July 2009
Bony - 28 July 2009
Botellón - 26 July 2009
Building laws - 5 July 2009, 8 July 2009
Can Picafort frontline upgrade - 17 July 2009
Christians and Moors, Pollensa 2009 - 20 July 2009, 23 July 2009
Don Pedro Hotel, Cala San Vicente - 24 July 2009
ESRA - 11 July 2009
ETA - 31 July 2009
Fiestas - 3 July 2009, 4 July 2009, 14 July 2009, 16 July 2009, 20 July 2009, 21 July 2009, 23 July 2009, 25 July 2009, 26 July 2009
Heatwave - 24 July 2009
Hotel low occupancy - 12 July 2009
Joan March - 19 July 2009
Ley de Costas - 5 July 2009, 8 July 2009
Mallorca expensive? - 7 July 2009, 27 July 2009, 29 July 2009
Mallorcan society - 3 July 2009, 9 July 2009, 21 July 2009, 26 July 2009
Miss Baleares - 29 July 2009
Monarch's beach in Birmingham - 25 July 2009
Muro's new mayor - 6 July 2009
Musicals - 10 July 2009
Palmanova bombing - 31 July 2009
Patrona 2009 - 20 July 2009, 23 July 2009
Playa de Muro hoteliers - 8 July 2009
Polish tourists, trouble caused by - 24 July 2009
Pollensa town hall contracts - 30 July 2009
Pollensa town hall finances - 18 July 2009, 25 July 2009
Puerto Alcúdia's commercial port - 10 July 2009, 11 July 2009
Puerto Pollensa military base Civil War memorial - 2 July 2009
Puerto Pollensa not like it was - 1 July 2009
Puerto Pollensa old school - 28 July 2009
Pumpkins - 19 July 2009
Rain - 11 July 2009
Road accidents - 14 July 2009
Road names, Franco associations - 19 July 2009
Sa Pobla-Alcúdia train - 31 July 2009
Salt lands, Puerto Alcúdia - 5 July 2009
Sant Jaume fiesta, Alcúdia - 16 July 2009, 26 July 2009
Son Bosc golf development - 17 July 2009
Souvenir shops - 27 July 2009
Swine flu - 16 July 2009, 22 July 2009
To Holiday holiday club - 18 July 2009
Tourism economy - 12 July 2009
Tourism promotion - 25 July 2009
Tourism spend - 30 July 2009
Unió Mallorquina - 13 July 2009
Youth drinking - 26 July 2009
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Thanks, Mr. President
Spain will hold a general election on 9 March. I can already hear the presses being cranked up with the “Vota” posters.
There are two parties that matter in Spain – the PSOE (Partido Socialista Obrero Español) of the current ruling Zapatero administration and the PP (Partido Popular) headed by Mariano Rajoy. Left and right, well sort of. There is a third party, the smaller, communist-led United Left. In addition, there are innumerable other minor parties and groupings, among the more significant being regional parties in Catalonia and the Basque country.
The election promises to be close. At present, the PSOE holds a three percentage point lead in the polls, though Sr. Zapatero enjoys higher personal satisfaction ratings than his main opponent. It could be that the election comes down to this personal popularity.
Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero was launched into presidential office* by surprise, his included. On winning the 2004 election, not only did he look like Mr. Bean, his body language and demeanour were those of an awkward and shy person with a sheepish grin that suggested he was thinking “what the heck do I do now?”. Prior to the win, he had tried – unconvincingly – to do a Mr. Angry act in parliamentary exchanges. There was and is something endearing about him, like a bookish and meek schoolmaster attempting – generally unsuccessfully – to appear tough. Like Tony Blair, he once had the sobriquet “Bambi”. But politicians don’t rise to head political parties without there being some substance, unless that politician happens to be Iain Duncan Smith.
(* The position is President, though in the UK it is common to refer to the Spanish leader as Prime Minister.)
Zapatero is a sympathetic character. Rather like John Major, for any failings, there is a feeling that he is a decent enough bloke, and he has not been exposed with his pants down (or up) with a female member of government. Mariano Rajoy, on the other hand, attracts little in the way of sympathy, albeit that, in the aftermath of the defeat in 2004 when as Jose Maria Aznar’s anointed successor he stood to be the next president, he cut a sad and forlorn figure. And that’s just it with Sr. Rajoy. He looks sad, or is it miserable? Perhaps it’s something to do with the beard. Zapatero’s face can crack into a boyish and somewhat mischievous smile, but Rajoy just looks Mr. Grumpy.
Rajoy has done himself few favours with his absurd categorical rejection of climate change. Certitude in a leader may be an attribute, but not if it is plain wrong. The environment is unlikely to be one of the bigger issues in the election, even if the Government, via its coastal reclaim and demolition plan, has indicated the importance of environmental concerns. But it remains to be seen whether this is just political posturing in currying favour with the environmental lobby.
The election is likely to be fought on two major issues – the economy and terrorism. Spain’s economy has thrived under Zapatero (as it had done under Aznar), but the election’s timing is unfortunate for him. Uncertainty that has clouded the otherwise sunny economic sky is largely not of the Government’s doing nor necessarily within the Government’s control. The European Central Bank’s raising of interest rates was the first cloud, and inflation has stubbornly resisted this. The housing market is in a general downturn, and there is significant indebtedness within certain sectors of the economy – construction not least – and at the consumer level. The US-led credit squeeze was a double whammy on top of the ECB’s intervention.
Terrorism, it is claimed with justification, lost the PP the last election. Or, as importantly, the then Government’s reaction to terrorism lost the election. The Madrid bombings occurred three days before the 2004 election, and Aznar chose to finger the Basque terrorists ETA as the perpetrators. He was of course wrong.
Zapatero had appeared to be making headway with a solution to the Basque issue until ETA broke its truce last summer (which had been effectively ended anyway by the bombing of Madrid airport). The truce had, all along perhaps, been a camouflage for ETA to regroup, and ETA could yet influence the result of this year’s election. It has been argued that Zapatero’s withdrawal of troops from Iraq suggested that he was less than tough on terrorism, and it may (stress may) have triggered a green light to ETA to eventually resume its activities. No one can know for sure. It is a matter of record though that Zapatero opposed Spanish military action in Iraq and that he questioned the legality of the invasion. However, the troop withdrawal was as much a political move for domestic consumption as anything else, a rejection of Aznar’s elevation of Spain into the international arena in support of Bush and Blair, for which he (Aznar) was mercilessly mocked by the Spanish equivalent of “Spitting Image” as “Tony’s little friend” in the style that David Steel once was.
Whether one accepts or not a sort of terrorism-lite approach by Zapatero in any link between the Iraq troop withdrawal decision and subsequent ETA activity, there was a widely held feeling that the withdrawal was at least partly due to the threat of a further outrage by Al-Qaida. As a participant in the fall of Saddam, Spain placed itself in the sights of Bin Laden and his network of cronies (and succumbed to them in the form of the Madrid bombings).
Another issue that may play a part in the election is the Government’s relationship with the Catholic Church. There has been disquiet in conservative religious circles at certain policies such as those regarding same-sex marriages and abortion. But abortion remains subject to strict criteria in Spain, and recent police activity against clinics alleged to have flouted these criteria does not suggest a general softening of approach. The hold of the Catholic Church over the Spanish people is not nearly as strong as one might imagine. Less than 20% of the population attends church on a regular basis. Economic development of the past two decades has made Spain an altogether more secular society. The Church may still have a say, but its voice is heard by fewer and fewer.
Where the Balearics and Mallorca are concerned, the maintenance of a Socialist government in Madrid should be beneficial in that both the national and regional administrations will continue to be governed by leaders of the same party. Zapatero has indicated that more from the central coffers could be coming the Balearics’ way if he wins. Vota PSOE in the Balearics, vota more dosh. Maybe.
Personality counts for so much in current-day politics. Zapatero may not be a Felipe González, a flamboyant Socialist leader and arguably Spain’s pre-eminent post-Franco politician, but he is regarded with some affection. The economy may be the main battleground, but the fight between a likeable politician and a dour one may yet prove to be critical. Likeable versus dour. Now where have I heard that before?
QUIZ
Yesterday – Gene Vincent. Today’s title – no way indicative of my support or not let me point out, and no prizes for knowing Marilyn Monroe, so something easier as a follow-up to yesterday. Who sang “Sweet Gene Vincent”?
(PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)
There are two parties that matter in Spain – the PSOE (Partido Socialista Obrero Español) of the current ruling Zapatero administration and the PP (Partido Popular) headed by Mariano Rajoy. Left and right, well sort of. There is a third party, the smaller, communist-led United Left. In addition, there are innumerable other minor parties and groupings, among the more significant being regional parties in Catalonia and the Basque country.
The election promises to be close. At present, the PSOE holds a three percentage point lead in the polls, though Sr. Zapatero enjoys higher personal satisfaction ratings than his main opponent. It could be that the election comes down to this personal popularity.
Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero was launched into presidential office* by surprise, his included. On winning the 2004 election, not only did he look like Mr. Bean, his body language and demeanour were those of an awkward and shy person with a sheepish grin that suggested he was thinking “what the heck do I do now?”. Prior to the win, he had tried – unconvincingly – to do a Mr. Angry act in parliamentary exchanges. There was and is something endearing about him, like a bookish and meek schoolmaster attempting – generally unsuccessfully – to appear tough. Like Tony Blair, he once had the sobriquet “Bambi”. But politicians don’t rise to head political parties without there being some substance, unless that politician happens to be Iain Duncan Smith.
(* The position is President, though in the UK it is common to refer to the Spanish leader as Prime Minister.)
Zapatero is a sympathetic character. Rather like John Major, for any failings, there is a feeling that he is a decent enough bloke, and he has not been exposed with his pants down (or up) with a female member of government. Mariano Rajoy, on the other hand, attracts little in the way of sympathy, albeit that, in the aftermath of the defeat in 2004 when as Jose Maria Aznar’s anointed successor he stood to be the next president, he cut a sad and forlorn figure. And that’s just it with Sr. Rajoy. He looks sad, or is it miserable? Perhaps it’s something to do with the beard. Zapatero’s face can crack into a boyish and somewhat mischievous smile, but Rajoy just looks Mr. Grumpy.
Rajoy has done himself few favours with his absurd categorical rejection of climate change. Certitude in a leader may be an attribute, but not if it is plain wrong. The environment is unlikely to be one of the bigger issues in the election, even if the Government, via its coastal reclaim and demolition plan, has indicated the importance of environmental concerns. But it remains to be seen whether this is just political posturing in currying favour with the environmental lobby.
The election is likely to be fought on two major issues – the economy and terrorism. Spain’s economy has thrived under Zapatero (as it had done under Aznar), but the election’s timing is unfortunate for him. Uncertainty that has clouded the otherwise sunny economic sky is largely not of the Government’s doing nor necessarily within the Government’s control. The European Central Bank’s raising of interest rates was the first cloud, and inflation has stubbornly resisted this. The housing market is in a general downturn, and there is significant indebtedness within certain sectors of the economy – construction not least – and at the consumer level. The US-led credit squeeze was a double whammy on top of the ECB’s intervention.
Terrorism, it is claimed with justification, lost the PP the last election. Or, as importantly, the then Government’s reaction to terrorism lost the election. The Madrid bombings occurred three days before the 2004 election, and Aznar chose to finger the Basque terrorists ETA as the perpetrators. He was of course wrong.
Zapatero had appeared to be making headway with a solution to the Basque issue until ETA broke its truce last summer (which had been effectively ended anyway by the bombing of Madrid airport). The truce had, all along perhaps, been a camouflage for ETA to regroup, and ETA could yet influence the result of this year’s election. It has been argued that Zapatero’s withdrawal of troops from Iraq suggested that he was less than tough on terrorism, and it may (stress may) have triggered a green light to ETA to eventually resume its activities. No one can know for sure. It is a matter of record though that Zapatero opposed Spanish military action in Iraq and that he questioned the legality of the invasion. However, the troop withdrawal was as much a political move for domestic consumption as anything else, a rejection of Aznar’s elevation of Spain into the international arena in support of Bush and Blair, for which he (Aznar) was mercilessly mocked by the Spanish equivalent of “Spitting Image” as “Tony’s little friend” in the style that David Steel once was.
Whether one accepts or not a sort of terrorism-lite approach by Zapatero in any link between the Iraq troop withdrawal decision and subsequent ETA activity, there was a widely held feeling that the withdrawal was at least partly due to the threat of a further outrage by Al-Qaida. As a participant in the fall of Saddam, Spain placed itself in the sights of Bin Laden and his network of cronies (and succumbed to them in the form of the Madrid bombings).
Another issue that may play a part in the election is the Government’s relationship with the Catholic Church. There has been disquiet in conservative religious circles at certain policies such as those regarding same-sex marriages and abortion. But abortion remains subject to strict criteria in Spain, and recent police activity against clinics alleged to have flouted these criteria does not suggest a general softening of approach. The hold of the Catholic Church over the Spanish people is not nearly as strong as one might imagine. Less than 20% of the population attends church on a regular basis. Economic development of the past two decades has made Spain an altogether more secular society. The Church may still have a say, but its voice is heard by fewer and fewer.
Where the Balearics and Mallorca are concerned, the maintenance of a Socialist government in Madrid should be beneficial in that both the national and regional administrations will continue to be governed by leaders of the same party. Zapatero has indicated that more from the central coffers could be coming the Balearics’ way if he wins. Vota PSOE in the Balearics, vota more dosh. Maybe.
Personality counts for so much in current-day politics. Zapatero may not be a Felipe González, a flamboyant Socialist leader and arguably Spain’s pre-eminent post-Franco politician, but he is regarded with some affection. The economy may be the main battleground, but the fight between a likeable politician and a dour one may yet prove to be critical. Likeable versus dour. Now where have I heard that before?
QUIZ
Yesterday – Gene Vincent. Today’s title – no way indicative of my support or not let me point out, and no prizes for knowing Marilyn Monroe, so something easier as a follow-up to yesterday. Who sang “Sweet Gene Vincent”?
(PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)
Monday, June 11, 2007
Holiday Hell
You have to be careful. The internet is full of reviews of all manner of things. Some while ago I mentioned the fact that action could be taken against, for example, restaurant owners who post their own glowing reports. That’s one thing. Then there are also the reviews, quite genuine, that slag somewhere off. I don’t doubt the sincerity of many of these. The only thing is that what is awful for one person is good for another. It is amazing how much views can diverge.
I raise this because elsewhere I have read some really scathing reviews of Bellevue from people who have been there this season. They pull no punches. I wonder if anyone at Bellevue takes any notice of this sort of thing. They should.
But you can also find people who are satisfied. Each to their own, I guess.
ETA has called off its truce, placing the Spanish security services on maximum alert. While there are worries about targets such as the America’s Cup in Valencia, a return to terrorist activity could yet cause problems for tourism.
Why this breakdown in the truce?
There is a view that it was simply a ploy to rearm and gear up for a return to activity. Maybe. There is also a political dimension. The Zapatero Government has placed much store in its rapprochement. The national elections are now less than a year away. There had been hope of a Northern Ireland-style end to the conflict.
Not now there isn’t.
Quiz time: Well done to all who got the right answers to our Guest Quiz Inquisitor’s posers. Answers were Blackadder and Jimi Hendrix.
The foxy title? Manfred Mann.
And Alastair puts this very difficult sitcom question. "Can you name any TV series by Carla Lane that was any good?". Phor, that’s a toughy.
PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)
I raise this because elsewhere I have read some really scathing reviews of Bellevue from people who have been there this season. They pull no punches. I wonder if anyone at Bellevue takes any notice of this sort of thing. They should.
But you can also find people who are satisfied. Each to their own, I guess.
ETA has called off its truce, placing the Spanish security services on maximum alert. While there are worries about targets such as the America’s Cup in Valencia, a return to terrorist activity could yet cause problems for tourism.
Why this breakdown in the truce?
There is a view that it was simply a ploy to rearm and gear up for a return to activity. Maybe. There is also a political dimension. The Zapatero Government has placed much store in its rapprochement. The national elections are now less than a year away. There had been hope of a Northern Ireland-style end to the conflict.
Not now there isn’t.
Quiz time: Well done to all who got the right answers to our Guest Quiz Inquisitor’s posers. Answers were Blackadder and Jimi Hendrix.
The foxy title? Manfred Mann.
And Alastair puts this very difficult sitcom question. "Can you name any TV series by Carla Lane that was any good?". Phor, that’s a toughy.
PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Advance, Advance!
Knickers in a twist time?
Spain, ahead of other European countries, will introduce the so-called Advance Passenger Information system from 13 June. This requires all passengers from non-Schengen countries, such as the UK and Ireland, to give full name, date of birth, nationality, passport number before travelling. If this is not done in advance, the info will have to be collected by check-in staff. Consequently, there are dire warnings of delays, of people not coming to Spain, blah, blah... . It is questionable why Spain feels the need to bring this in now as other EU countries will not be doing so for up to 12 months. Ok, the introduction coincides with the start of the peak season. But when should Spain introduce it? It will presumably be operable in future high seasons, so what’s the problem now?
It is the case that new-generation passports contain all the relevant information, so there may be a bit of overkill here, but fact is, folks, we have to live with this sort of inconvenience (not that it is, to be honest). More pertinent, I suppose, is what this information collection does in terms of deterring terrorism, which is the point of it all. Forged passports anyone?
Pop Quiz update: I was waiting for Andrea to come up with Jonathan King. And so the corollary is - apart from anything else he may or may not have done, what was Jonathan King’s greatest crime in musical terms? Clue: it was a “Spanish” hit.
(PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)
Spain, ahead of other European countries, will introduce the so-called Advance Passenger Information system from 13 June. This requires all passengers from non-Schengen countries, such as the UK and Ireland, to give full name, date of birth, nationality, passport number before travelling. If this is not done in advance, the info will have to be collected by check-in staff. Consequently, there are dire warnings of delays, of people not coming to Spain, blah, blah... . It is questionable why Spain feels the need to bring this in now as other EU countries will not be doing so for up to 12 months. Ok, the introduction coincides with the start of the peak season. But when should Spain introduce it? It will presumably be operable in future high seasons, so what’s the problem now?
It is the case that new-generation passports contain all the relevant information, so there may be a bit of overkill here, but fact is, folks, we have to live with this sort of inconvenience (not that it is, to be honest). More pertinent, I suppose, is what this information collection does in terms of deterring terrorism, which is the point of it all. Forged passports anyone?
Pop Quiz update: I was waiting for Andrea to come up with Jonathan King. And so the corollary is - apart from anything else he may or may not have done, what was Jonathan King’s greatest crime in musical terms? Clue: it was a “Spanish” hit.
(PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)
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