May Joy Or Gloom For Mallorca?

It was a joyous Easter for the hoteliers. Occupancy figures across the island were exceptionally high. From Andraitx in the south-west (90% occupancy) to Alcúdia, Muro and Pollensa in the north (85% on average) to Colonia Sant Jordi in the south (90%), the reported figures show that a combination of a late Easter, excellent weather and a recovery in the domestic tourism market made the hoteliers very happy Easter bunnies indeed. With slightly under three-quarters of hotels across the island open, the numbers were very good.

But happiness can quickly turn to sadness and anxieties. The high Easter numbers have to be placed in context of what went before and what is going to happen in May. For the first quarter of the year the number of tourists coming to the Balearics fell by almost 25%. That is far from good news when compared with increases in the order of around 10% or more to Catalonia, Valencia and Andalusia. To add to this gloomy statistic is a further one for anticipated occupancy in May. The Mallorcan hoteliers federation is warning of a fall of 20% over last year, which would mean 50% occupancy.

This warning, coming immediately after the successful Easter, puts a dampener on things but it might be considered to be a rather strange warning. Just prior to the holidays, the hoteliers were saying the opposite. Occupancy would be up by an average of 10% was one statement. From different parts of the island, there were positive forecasts. Cala Millor was looking better than last May. Playa de Palma up by almost 15%, thanks to a strong German market. There was a similar forecast for Palmanova and Magalluf. So good were the prospects that they were being spoken of in terms of tourism numbers not witnessed in May since the mid-1980s. And also so good were they that some hotels had stopped selling because of fears of overbooking.

The 20% decline that is now being forecast may not be wrong if a similar forecast for last year is anything to go by. At a similar time in April in 2013 the hoteliers were predicting occupancy for May of slightly under 70%, and the prediction was pretty much bang on. This previous accuracy notwithstanding, how is that there can have been such a change in forecasts in the space of a week? Which ones should be believed? Any of them?

There is always a risk in taking pronouncements from the hoteliers at their word, as they engage in a good deal of special pleading and in laying the groundwork for propaganda, that which is typically directed at the competition of the holiday-let market. More often than not the warnings do not match actual performance. Indeed, I would be greatly surprised if a forecasted 50% occupancy level were to be registered, because if it were, then it could be considered little more than disastrous and totally out of step with the general prognosis for yet another record season.

The hoteliers are currently engaged in battles on different fronts. The holiday-lets front, one which the hoteliers have little risk of conceding, is but one battle. It is getting ever more fierce though because of the growth in so-called P2P selling (the Airbnb's of this world). There are calls for legislation to curb this. The other fronts have to do with costs and prices. On the latter, while the hoteliers have been happy enough to increase their prices, they have been less happy with rates of IVA (VAT), but their wish to see the rate which applies to them - the already reduced rate of 10% - reduced further will not be granted. Knowing full well that it won't be, the other battle - labour costs and so the annual wage negotiation - is the one that the hoteliers will hope to win, but if they don't then this will doubtless be a convenient excuse if May occupancy levels were to prove to be as bad as they are forecasting.

But I doubt very much that they will be. The forecasts have to be seen as bargaining chips. Unfortunately, the local media give them far too much credibility as well as exposure. A disastrous May? If it is, then I'll admit to having been wrong or I'll be mightily suspicious that the figures have been doctored. They were worried about overbooking only a week ago.

I'm A Believer (Or Not)

"You just don't know who to believe." Thus spake the editor of "The Bulletin" the other day. He was referring to the conflicting information regarding how well, or not, the season is going.

There are many here who suspect the dark art of the propagandist's pen when it comes to the season good news stories. Few can quite believe the spin. Yet for every woe-is-me bar or restaurant owner, there is always another who has a skip in his stride and a smile of contentment. Sometimes it can be for show; we know that. But sometimes it is obviously genuine. Take somewhere like La Recoleta in Puerto Alcúdia, a restaurant in a highly competitive and concentrated zone in the port. Here is someone, Gustavo, who has the demeanour and the bright eyes of someone genuinely "muy contento" with the season.

It is hard though to know who to believe. We have been told that this season, in terms of numbers at any rate, would be as good as 2007, a record year, lest we forget. On the other hand, there was the news the other day from the hoteliers who were talking about anything up to a 15% slump in profits. It is just this apparent contradiction that The Bulletin's editor rightly alludes to. But then you come across something that supports what the hoteliers are saying and also heavily questions the numbers good news. This is just one example, but perhaps it is a telling one. In Puerto Alcúdia, there is a hotel that apparently for the day of 25 July, i.e. in high season, has a forecast occupation of 67%. Two-thirds. If this is correct, it is going to require a whole load of last-minutes and probably tour operator discounts to elevate that figure to anything like respectability. An occupancy rate in the mid-60s percentage bracket is more like a good performance in May, not July, and there was a report yesterday which said that the Balearics had an average May occupancy level of 61%.

Of course one example proves very little, but it is nevertheless an indication; an indication in particular of the impact of bad economic times and bad exchange rates for the British tourist. It is falling to the German and Scandinavian tourist to take up the slack, but even that can go only so far. The Bulletin's editor goes on to the refer to the call for greater promotion of Mallorca by the government, something I also mentioned recently. He sees a particular need for this in respect of the British market. Perhaps he is right, but when hit by the sort of economic circumstances that they have been, no amount of promotion is necessarily going to convince a wavering Brit tourist of the efficacy of coming to Mallorca. That said, there may well be sense in launching a strong campaign as I don't think I am alone in believing that not this year but next year is potentially going to be the real annus miserabilis. And no amount of propaganda is likely to convince otherwise.


And so of course to Euro 2008. Sore-head morning today, one fancies. The car horns did duly blare out long into the night. 44 years of failure and then a goal from Torres. The post-match shindigs were a wonder to behold. The chap who does the interviews for the Cuatro channel, the one who spoke to the King the other day, was soaked in champagne by a bunch of Spanish players running around in their underwear like kids splashing through a fountain on a hot day. Somehow, one couldn't quite imagine Ray Stubbs being similarly doused. But even among the excitement of the closing moments, the final whistle coming nearer to end those 44 years, on Spanish radio (and I have 6-0-6 to thank for this) the commentator said that there were two minutes to go, time enough to eat a doughnut. Now I think my chances of being a commentator on a Euro final are greater than England's chances of ever making it to a final, but were these two unlikelihoods to ever happily collide, I fancy that the eating of a doughnut would not be the first thing that enters my head in the dying moments before victory.


QUIZ
Chain - Godley and Creme did the video for "Rockit". And so ... Yesterday's title - Prince, "1999". Today's title - easy stuff so long as you ignore the brackets.

(PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)


Index for June 2008

Air Berlin - 14 June 2008, 18 June 2008, 20 June 2008
Balearic economy - 19 June 2008, 23 June 2008, 25 June 2008
Balearic Government - 14 June 2008, 18 June 2008, 20 June 2008, 23 June 2008, 25 June 2008, 29 June 2008, 30 June 2008
Bars - 2 June 2008
Beaches - 13 June 2008
Cala San Vicente - 7 June 2008
Can Picafort - 11 June 2008
Cedilla - 1 June 2008
Cleanliness - 2 June 2008, 3 June 2008
Construction industry - 25 June 2008
Continental Park Hotel - 21 June 2008
Cost of living - 22 June 2008
Education - 14 June 2008
Energy costs - 10 June 2008
Eroski - 9 June 2008, 10 June 2008
Euro 2008 - 6 June 2008, 7 June 2008, 17 June 2008, 23 June 2008, 27 June 2008, 29 June 2008, 30 June 2008
Fiestas - 13 June 2008, 26 June 2008
Flu - 18 June 2008
Football - 6 June 2008, 7 June 2008, 17 June 2008, 23 June 2008, 27 June 2008, 29 June 2008, 30 June 2008
Germans - 4 June 2008
Holiday clubs - 12 June 2008
Hotels - 16 June 2008, 21 June 2008, 27 June 2008, 30 June 2008
Internet - 13 June 2008, 21 June 2008
JKs Bar - 2 June 2008
La Victoria - 26 June 2008
La Villa Chinese restaurant - 24 June 2008
Language - 14 June 2008, 18 June 2008, 20 June 2008
Logos - 1 June 2008, 3 June 2008, 18 June 2008
Lorry drivers' strike - 10 June 2008, 12 June 2008
Maps - 5 June 2008
Marketing - 8 June 2008
Muro - 8 June 2008
Nadal, Rafael - 29 June 2008
Nautical tourism - 15 June 2008
Playa de Muro - 8 June 2008, 21 June 2008
Polish tourists - 7 June 2008
Pollensa - 1 June 2008, 3 June 2008
Port terminal - 15 June 2008
Prices - 24 June 2008
Railways - 26 June 2008, 28 June 2008
Restaurants - 24 June 2008
Road accidents - 1 June 2008
Roads - 28 June 2008
Sant Pere 2008 - 13 June 2008
Scandinavian tourists - 16 June 2008
Scratch cards - 12 June 2008
Spanish economy - 19 June 2008
Spanish television - 17 June 2008, 23 June 2008, 30 June 2008
Strikes - 10 June 2008, 12 June 2008, 28 June 2008
Sunwing Resort - 16 June 2008
Supermarkets - 9 June 2008, 10 June 2008, 12 June 2008
Tennis - 29 June 2008
Thomson - 21 June 2008
Tour operators - 21 June 2008
Tourism quality - 18 June 2008
Tourism spend - 27 June 2008
Tourism statistics - 30 June 2008
Tourism strategy - 3 June 2008
Tourists - 5 June 2008, 7 June 2008, 16 June 2008
Trains - 26 June 2008, 28 June 2008
Trams - 26 June 2008, 27 June 2008
Trikes - 18 June 2008
Weather - 9 June 2008, 11 June 2008, 21 June 2008, 23 June 2008
WiFi - 13 June 2008