January Just Got Worse

Let me take you back to December 2012, a time when Carlos Delgado was still tourism minister and a time when prospects for winter tourism in the Balearics suddenly looked very much brighter. The light amidst the gloom of the off-season was to be shone thanks to the fact that, for the first time, the "winter product" was to be worked on in a "planned and perceptible" manner. That there was, for the first time, such an approach was an admission of failure in the past, but now there was to be this work on the winter product and eventually the Balearics would be a promised land of off-season riches where the cycle paths would be paved with gold and where the handful of loaves and fish of the local gastronomy would feed multitudes.

Well, not quite of course and certainly not immediately. Ever shrewd, Carlos admitted that this once-in-a-lifetime plan for winter tourism might not reap rewards within only one or two years. Nevertheless, because the plan - here a travel fair, there a familiarisation trip - was going to be planned and perceptible, rewards would eventually follow. 

Carlos has now gone, but his ministerial sidekick, the faithful Jaime Martínez, who for ten years had benefited from the Delgado political mentorship, is still here. The great vision for the new world of winter tourism that was unveiled in December 2012 was a Carlos-Jaime co-production. Jaime is now the minister. Jaime, I know you are not long in your post, I know that it is not even two years since the plan was produced, but have you seen the figures for January?

I have to assume that, as tourism minister, he will have seen the figures and will have sunk deeper into the new and larger ministerial chair. He might argue that you can prove anything with statistics, but he has himself doubtless sought to prove anything with statistics. There's no having it both ways and, regardless of any questions about data collection methodology, the statistics make grim reading. In January, Mallorca (not the Balearics as a whole) lost over 20,000 tourists. Put another way, tourism in Mallorca was down by over 11%. In Andalusia, by contrast, it was up by over 23%. In Catalonia, tourist tax and all, it was up by 13.5%. Nationally it was up by over 12%. Mallorca (the Balearics) was the only one of the major tourism regions to have experienced a slump. Jaime, explain.

Will the plan bring about a reversal in January fortunes in 2015? The fairs are being attended, the trips are being made but not in vastly greater number than they were last year. There is, though, greater expenditure on promotion; Jaime said so at the press conference at which he was handed the baton from Carlos in December last year. Greater expenditure or greater spreading thinly? An average cost per the total of 145 promotional activities (fairs etc.) that is six times less than the average cost incurred by the last administration. More for less, and I have to say I don't necessarily disagree that this is bad policy or that there is a bad plan. Just. Where's the evidence that it is achieving anything or will achieve anything? Down by over 11% this January.

 There are further statistics, those for overnight stays in hotels. While the data gathering for actual tourists - the questionnaires used at airports and ports - might be thought to be a little hit or miss, stays in hotels are more accurate. For Mallorca, the January figure for foreign tourists was down, well down. Down by a third in fact. Catalonia and Andalusia, on the other hand, up, and let's not even bother mentioning the Canaries. In the main tourist press reports of these overnight stays, they don't refer to Mallorca or to the Balearics. Why would they? There's little to refer to. You have to consult the spreadsheets. I'm sure you have, Jaime.

Maybe, when February's figures are released, things will look better. Cycling tourists don't, after all, start coming in any great number until February, but even better figures for February would miss the point, which is that other parts of Spain have shown increases in January while Mallorca has shown a fall. Jaime, you know the reasons, because you said so when Carlos and President Bauzá were grinning when you told the press how things would be with you as minister. Tourists have to have the idea placed in their minds that there is more than just sun and beach, and once their minds are changed, the airlines will schedule more flights.

Changing minds possibly yes, but then possibly no. You know the two most important markets, Jaime. Have you seen the figures for January? The numbers for UK and German tourists. The number for the latter is four times greater. Now, why do you think that is?

Boom, Boom, Boom, Boom

As noted on the twitter thing, Steve reckoned that the 6% increase in January tourism was down to an aunt and uncle having come for a weekend. It wouldn't take a lot to register an increase, I guess is the conclusion one can draw. Actually, it was a bit more than a couple of relatives, around 8,500 more I'm hazarding. But as also "tweeted" yesterday (see I've got all this lingo sorted, you know), whatever happened to this social tourism that was going to boost the island's winter tourism industry? Or is this increase solely down to impoverished oldsters from Prague and Warsaw being dragged over to Mallorca to escape minus twenty degrees of a mid-European winter? Some 48,000 were expected to come (4 December: Rescue Me) to the Balearics. When you start to play with the figures, assume that this social tourism would be for the months of January, February and March, factor in that some would go to the other islands, and there, bingo, you have your answer. It's not just Steve's aunt and uncle, but a bunch of Hungarian pensioners who are making the Balearics the shining beacon of Spanish winter tourism; those Hungarian pensioners of which there have been vast numbers knocking around Alcúdia and Pollensa; have there not? But then we are also told that these January visitors were from a German market that is bucking the recessionary trend and is sending us many a Nordic pole-wielding Waltraud and Hellmut. Uh, huh. In that case, if there has indeed been this social tourism influx, are we to assume that had there not been, then the January figure would have been down on last year? I think we would have to, would we not? You see, there is always another story, always another way of looking at things, though, of course, maybe there isn't as perhaps those social tourists haven't turned up. In which case everything is indeed hunky-dory. Maybe.

Try also this, though, when it comes to looking at things in another way. "The Bulletin" ran with a headline yesterday which read that Pollensa was celebrating "a surprise winter tour cash boom". Just take that headline and the pretext for it, and you would think that Pollensa was awash with tourist money and indeed tourists. But this might not be the case. This headline reflects what has been said by one bar owner. Now, I could have mentioned this myself on the blog. In fact I sort of have alluded to it, but only alluded. What the paper reports is what was told to me, some while ago, by Kevin at JK's. I would not have dreamt of being explicit in stating that it was this bar which was telling me that business was up 20%. I get told all sorts of things - good and bad - as to how businesses are doing; sometimes by the owners themselves, sometimes by others, some of whom may have the best wishes of that business in mind but very often don't. But I only refer to such information obliquely, except today, in the case of JK's, because the paper has reported it. It is also, in this case, believable, which is not always the case when bars tell you how well they are doing. It is believable because this happens to be a very good bar. The crucial point, where the headline was concerned however, was that it was the experience of just one bar. Cash boom? Well, it may only be one hotel but I can tell you, though I wouldn't dream of being explicit in stating which hotel, that a particular hotel in Puerto Pollensa has so far failed to break double figures for when it opens next month.

There is, however, an aspect of this Pollensa so-called cash boom which does deserve attention and that is, as is pointed out, that people have been staying in private accommodation rather than hotels. Unless I'm mistaken, I don't think there is any major hotel open in the resort through the whole of winter, while private accommodation is an important aspect of Puerto Pollensa's tourism business all year. This may just prove the folly of the government's attack on private lettings, and nowhere demonstrates this more clearly than Puerto Pollensa where, were there to be a reliance on hotels, the tourism trade would slump dramatically. As the tour operators have all but given up with winter package deals, the do-it-yourself fly-and-rent arrangement becomes not just important but essential.


The One Euro Sale
And talking of Steve, Little Britain has a sale this coming weekend of various items at one euro and, perhaps more importantly, you will able to buy "The Bulletin" there from this weekend as well. How about that? Easter is approaching and there is a deal for early birds buying eggs. More on WHAT'S ON BLOG - http://www.wotzupnorth.blogspot.com.


QUIZ
Yesterday's title - Dixie Chicks (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLBgmbXBOb8). Introducing this song at a British concert was when Natalie Maines made the "ashamed of Bush" remark. Today's title - one of the great blues men who had late-career success with this. And don't say Basil Brush, Mr. Derek.

(PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)

Travellin' Soldier

Well, well, well, what do you know? Misery and gloom on the tourism front and then this ... the worst January for tourism to Spain in 15 years and yet the Balearics managed to register an increase in visitors of close on 6%. Let's not get carried away, but any positive sign is worth noting. We do, though, have to place this in context, and that context is as follows: in January, 153,000 tourists came to the Balearics, while the Canaries boasted 782,000. The latter may have seen a decline last month, but the difference in the totals tells us an awful lot. Do visitors in January go to the Canaries for the culture and the gastronomy? I don't think so. Much as there is all this desire to see alternatives to the sun and beach holiday, one only has to consider the respective January figures for the Balearics and the Canaries to see where the priorities lie.


You may be aware that there are no-go areas in Alcúdia and Pollensa. These aren't the local housing projects or sink estates; they are the military zones. That of Puerto Pollensa is pretty obvious. Just past the Playa Mar hotel there is the sign. You can't go in there unless you're from a NATO ally; then you can and have yourself a nice holiday. I forget the numbers now. 40,000 a year. Can that be right? Sounds like a lot. You wonder just what sort of military base is a holiday home for that sort of number. The base is also home to something non-military, the Canadair fire-fighting planes.

Rather less obvious is the military area in Alcúdia, which is at Cap des Pinar, which is the bit at the tip past La Victoria before you turn and start to head down towards Coll Baix and Alcanada. There are a couple of small, secluded beaches around there. Might be very nice, except if you get within 200 metres of the shore you might find yourself being target practice. Perhaps NATO troops and their families based in Puerto Pollensa go on excursions to them.

Back in 2007, it would seem, it was agreed that Spanish military bases would be open to civilian use. The Balearic Government seems not to have noticed. Apparently its parliament is the only one not to have adopted this. So, opposition groups in the parliament have asked that maybe it should be and that possibilities as to civilian use are looked into.

But would you really want them for civilian purposes? Indeed, what would these purposes be? Another tex-mex restaurant almost certainly. And I have a question. If all this NATO personnel really is turning up for hols in Puerto Pollensa, where do they go? Are these travelling soldiers all in the local bars? Or. Or, is it that they don't need to go out. Could it be that they have an all-inclusive deal?


QUIZ
Yesterday's title - Pigmeat Markham from Rowan & Martin's Laugh-In. Today's title - how long have I waited for an excuse for this (as in the most popular version of the song)? Brilliant, beautiful, sad ... an all-time great song, and one associated with what politically-related controversy?

(PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)