Let's Make Lots Of Money

On the back of what I was saying about the lamentable state of the property market (21 July) comes further confirmation of the difficulties in this sector. In the "Diario", a spokesperson for the Balearic college of estate agents reckons that the "crisis" will last two more years and observes that sales of older dwellings (as opposed to new builds) have slumped 60% and that there are 5,000 new properties unsold. He also makes the point that, unlike in the rest of Spain, there is a resistance among owners to drop their prices, something that is preventing any form of kick-start to the local market.

Well this latter point comes as very little surprise. Indeed had he said that the prices of unsold properties had actually gone up that would also not have come as a surprise. It is far from uncommon for a property that has been on the market for some time without a buyer to have its price increased. It may not seem to make much sense, but for the Mallorcan it appears to (though one cannot rule out the fact that other nationalities are also holding firm on their prices). Having spoken to many an estate agent over the months and years, one is struck by the degree to which some agents classify the Mallorcan owner as greedy. I'll cite an example - a Mallorcan gentleman touted his property around three different agents, opting in the end for a Mallorcan company; one of the three, British-run, had given a price a half of that which he obtained from the "winning" agency. Perhaps neither valuation was realistic, but when you're talking about the difference of some two and a half million I suppose you might be inclined to go for the higher figure even if it is a nonsense.

This greed thing is something one hears a lot. Anecdotally one learns of it in respect of various dealings, be they rents on bars or the sale of a house. But perhaps there is a whole cultural element that one fails to appreciate. I have looked for clues in "Beloved Majorcans" as to an explanation of the conundrum as to high prices being maintained even during economically hard times. There is nothing specific, but the indifference to time pressures may indicate a willingness to wait, while there is some suggestion that a Mallorcan would rather not sell to someone who seems overly keen. Whatever the truth or the possible cultural dimension, perhaps it just all comes down to wanting to secure as much as possible - and that's no different anywhere.


One Mallorcan who seems to have extracted as much as possible is the owner of Real Mallorca, Vicente Grande. Apparently he's set to get 50 million quid for a 96% stake in the club, a fair bit more than Freddy Shepherd had tabled. The buyer is also British, namely Paul Davidson, known as "The Plumber" because of his pipe-fitting business. According to the BBC's site, Mr Davidson sees this as a chance to promote his business interests in Spain. Maybe it is, but it seems an awful lot and rather tangential to pipes. But who knows. I was going to run this item yesterday as a link with the Patrona piece - leaks and pipes and plumbing and what have you - but it sits just as well with the property angle.

As a corollary to this ... In an interview with the "Diario" Mr. Davidson says that he prefers not to divulge the amount he has offered for the club, except that it is much more than the Shepherd offer. He has ambition for the club - champions and all that - which for a team with a generally unremarkable recent history is probably pushing it. The interview concludes by observing that he talks of the intention to buy (it also refers to the process of due diligence that may take some time), and so asks if he really is the new owner. Unequivocally yes is the answer. The question that was not put is whether this new owner has the financial clout to elevate Real to the level of his stated ambition. Grabbing a club that finished seventh in La Liga for an amount far less than for a similar club in the Premier League is one thing, but the price of success in football is high, be it in Spain or England.


QUIZ
Yesterday's title - Martha Reeves and the Vandellas (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-EKd2n0urs). Today's title - who?

(PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)

I’m Forever Bursting Bubbles

Has the property bubble in Spain finally burst?

The stock market took a dive a while back as investors sold property stocks in anticipation of an end to the boom. And now it seems as though the harsher realities of the market are about to hit home. I spent some time this morning speaking with some local estate agents. There is some “difficulty” was a comment on more than one occasion. For difficulty, read lack of sales.

Fact is that there is a glut of speculative development, a general view that property is overpriced, some concerns over legalities and also interest-rate rises.

Much of Spain’s recent economic boom has been based on the construction sector. The downturn in the market threatens, it is said, two out of five construction companies. As the boom has lasted, more and more players have come into a market - across the sector - eyeing strong returns. But no boom lasts forever.

Despite this, it is also being said that a drop in prices may not feed through for at least a year if not longer. Perhaps so, but there is one factor that may hasten this. It is not uncommon for people to buy a new house with an existing property (and mortgage) acting as a form of collateral, so to speak. While the intention may be to sell the first property, there has not always been pressure to do so, especially if the market is buoyant and interest rates are reasonable. Take these elements out of the equation, or rather replace them with instability and increased mortgages, and the pressure to sell - at a lower price - becomes a likelihood. It is also the case that consumer debt in Spain is over-leveraged (in other words, people are too stretched, even by comparison with the UK). It may sound remarkable to UK readers who will be aware of the apparently disproportionate house-price to salary ratio, but the ratio of house prices to wages is above that of the UK.

For the potential buyer, therefore, this could all be good news, though the potential volatility - at least in the short term - may mean buyers holding off. Whether this market shift also affects Mallorca as much as the mainland is another question, though - as some estate agents are suggesting - “difficulties” are already in the system.

On the other hand ... Back in 2002 I distinctly recall it being said that prices would come down within a couple of years. It was argued that prices then were inflated, largely as a result of the introduction of the euro. Well, that is no longer an issue, and it could just be that the property market, as then (when prices kept going up), turns out to be more robust than is being suggested. But the euro remains an issue in one very important respect, and this is - arguably - the nub of the whole property story. Spain entered the single currency with an exceptionally low interest rate, which the European Central Bank seems likely to increase. Interest rates have been below inflation rates, thus creating the circumstances for boom.

The Bank of Spain is saying that there will be no crash, placing faith - in part - in the level of immigration to buoy demand. The Bank’s main concern lies with the financing arrangements of the leading construction companies, which also means the lending arrangements of the banks.


Quiz. I’m not letting you off. It’s a great question, yesterday’s, so another day at least ...

PLEASE REPLY TO andrew@thealcudiaguide.com AND NOT VIA THE COMMENTS THINGY HERE.)

N.B. Acknowledgment due to www.ft.com for some information in compiling today’s piece.