At the end of September, the journalist Antonio Alemany presented a plea for a pardon to be considered. He was seeking this pardon as a way of avoiding serving a prison sentence of two years and three months that was handed down at the end of a trial which also involved former president of the Balearics, Jaume Matas, and which resulted in Alemany having been found guilty of having received irregular payments, made from public funds, for speeches and articles he had written for and about Matas. The pardon plea was presented to the "Audiencia" in Palma, the court which had heard the case. As his sentence was for less than three years, the court had to accept that Alemany's entrance into prison would be suspended, pending the processing of the pardon plea.
Three weeks later, the court had to agree to his not entering prison because there was a possibility that he could serve his sentence but then receive the pardon. The fact that this was a possibility serves to highlight quite how slowly the judicial process can move. The court, in acceding to the plea, laid down certain conditions. One was that Alemany would have to report to police once a month, another was that, if the pardon process had not been resolved by May 2018, the case would go back to court in order to establish whether or not Alemany should indeed enter prison. By May 2018. Over four and a half years later.
It is not for the court to decide on the pardon plea. Its processing is undertaken by the national Ministry of Justice. It gathers all the information relevant to the case and this is then given to the Cabinet (of Mariano Rajoy) to make a decision. There is a minimum period that this processing requires. Approximately one year. As far as there being a maximum period, perhaps May 2018 gives an indication as to how long this might be.
Alemany is not the only defendant to have been found guilty to seek a pardon from the Prime Minister. A former colleague of Mariano Rajoy's in national government is also seeking one. Jaume Matas. He had initially been sentenced to six years for the same case as that involving Alemany. The sentence was reduced to nine months.
There is something of a convention that sentences for first offences of under two years mean that a spell in prison is avoided. Where Matas was concerned, it had looked as though this would be the case, but the court has insisted otherwise. Once it seemed as if he would have to enter prison, the pardon was sought.
In July, the former president of the Council of Mallorca, Maria Antònia Munar, went to prison to serve a sentence of five and a half years. In October, her lawyer, responding to confirmation of the sentence by the Balearics High Court, indicated that he might seek either a "recurso de amparo" or a partial pardon for his client. The "amparo", which would, in this instance, be granted by the Constitutional Court, is a legal remedy akin to habeas corpus. The word means protection, and its purpose is to protect citizens and to guarantee that basic rights are not being violated.
It would be unlikely that the Constitutional Court would uphold the amparo plea, as to do so it would need to establish that a fundamental right had been breached. Munar continues to argue her innocence, but her sentence has been upheld and she indeed faces, like Matas, other possible sentencing. Were a pardon to be considered, this wouldn't mean that she could leave prison. Once there, she stays there until or if it is decided she has been there long enough (less than the five and a half years in all likelihood).
It has emerged that, prior to going into prison, Munar sought the help of three leading politicians with the PSOE party. They were the leader of PSOE and former national Interior Minister, Alfredo Rubalcaba, the former president of the Balearics, Francesc Antich, and the one-time director-general of the National Police and Guardia Civil, Joan Mesquida. Help was also sought from a fourth person, the Balearics chief prosecutor. In a letter to Rubalcaba, she pleads with him to intercede on her behalf.
These requests for help amount to requests for influence to be used. As such, they go to the heart of what lies behind corruption - the wielding of influence and the use or abuse of position and power. Are requests for pardons, directed in Matas's case at a former government colleague, not in a sense similar? To be met, they require those in power to not just wield influence but to make the decision.
What justifications are there for pardons? If convictions are wrong, then there are plenty. Have these convictions been, as Munar alludes to in her letters, the result of political persecution? If the convictions are right, then there are surely no justifications.
Showing posts with label Alfredo Rubalcaba. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alfredo Rubalcaba. Show all posts
Monday, December 16, 2013
Thursday, November 15, 2012
It's A Trust Thing: Spain's political parties
It must come as a blow to Uncle Alfredo that he is not trusted by 91% of Spaniards. As leader of PSOE, Rubalcaba should be making some inroads into the void that is known as Rajoy. Yet even Mariano can count on seven per cent more Spaniards trusting him.
Rubalcaba's rating reinforces the feeling that PSOE made a mistake in not consigning their Solzhenitsyn doppelgänger to the Gulag of political wilderness after Mariano meandered all but unopposed to the finishing-line twelve months ago. When only nine per cent of the population trusts you, the chances of your ever gaining sufficient support to be gainfully employed as Spanish prime minister are remote in the extreme. Word has it that PSOE grandees are seeking an alternative, now finally convinced that Ruby, Ruby, Ruby will not be socking it to anyone, least of all the electorate. Rubalcaba can't even convince his own supporters; 80% of PSOE voters don't trust him.
The appalling and plunging polling of both Rajoy and Rubalcaba is matched only by the slump in support for their respective parties; the Partido Popular has lost 13 points and PSOE six since the election in November last year. Had the PP not experienced a decline in popularity, something would be very wrong, but its slump can be attributed only partly to its handling of the economy. The trust thing is just as important, and trust has all but evaporated in Rajoy, in Rubalcaba and in two-party politics.
Between elections is not the best time to draw firm conclusions, but the inability of either of the main parties to inspire confidence - at a time when Spain is crying out for someone, anyone to do so - is opening the door to other options. Gains by local parties in regional elections this year and the likelihood of Artur Mas's CiU winning the forthcoming Catalonia election place regionalism very much to the fore. Neither the PP nor PSOE, both committed to the "state", is proving capable of holding back the tide of regionalist sentiment.
There has been no test of this sentiment in Mallorca and there won't be one until 2015 (unless something odd happens), but with trust in the Balearics PP eroding and PSOE locally in total disarray, might there be an opportunity for a third party?
The only obvious gain in popularity since the regional elections in 2011 has been for the PSM, the Mallorcan socialists, a party with a firmly pro-nationalist (Mallorcan nationalist) agenda. Now, however, there is El Pi, "autonomist" by mission statement, so therefore regionalist if not nationalist. But how much trust could it call upon? A new name, but there is still the hangover from the corrupt ways of the Unió Mallorquina and even the archived case against Jaume Font from his days with the PP.
There is hope that the UPyD, a genuinely new party when it was formed five years ago, might come to greater prominence. Devoid of any of the baggage associated with other parties, representative of a different style of centrist politics, it would be refreshing to see it make headway. But how could it? Without selling its soul, it is unlikely to ever have a machine sufficiently well-oiled to make a significant impact. It also doesn't deal in the populist, and it is this - populism - that is the real fear that lurks behind the collapse of trust in the two main parties.
Such a populist voice or presence hasn't emerged, but this doesn't mean that it couldn't. The loss of trust in the political parties has very strong echoes of the past, the 1930s, and placed in combination with the international humiliation that Spain is most likely to face when (not if) it finally bows to the inevitable bailout, the savaging of economic crisis, the need to seek scapegoats and the threat to nationhood posed by Mas and possibly others, the lack of the trust thing creates a potentially volatile situation. And this volatility may draw energy from the force within a black-hole vacuum of leadership that requires filling.
The measures taken to tackle economic crisis are bound to provoke a fall in popularity, but the loss of trust stems only partially from a feeling that politicians (including Rubalcaba) are incapable of truly tackling the crisis. It comes also from a belief that this incapability is linked with vested interests that create constraints. It is an acknowledgement of the inherent corruption of the political system, one that could be overlooked when times were good but cannot be now that times are bad.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Rubalcaba's rating reinforces the feeling that PSOE made a mistake in not consigning their Solzhenitsyn doppelgänger to the Gulag of political wilderness after Mariano meandered all but unopposed to the finishing-line twelve months ago. When only nine per cent of the population trusts you, the chances of your ever gaining sufficient support to be gainfully employed as Spanish prime minister are remote in the extreme. Word has it that PSOE grandees are seeking an alternative, now finally convinced that Ruby, Ruby, Ruby will not be socking it to anyone, least of all the electorate. Rubalcaba can't even convince his own supporters; 80% of PSOE voters don't trust him.
The appalling and plunging polling of both Rajoy and Rubalcaba is matched only by the slump in support for their respective parties; the Partido Popular has lost 13 points and PSOE six since the election in November last year. Had the PP not experienced a decline in popularity, something would be very wrong, but its slump can be attributed only partly to its handling of the economy. The trust thing is just as important, and trust has all but evaporated in Rajoy, in Rubalcaba and in two-party politics.
Between elections is not the best time to draw firm conclusions, but the inability of either of the main parties to inspire confidence - at a time when Spain is crying out for someone, anyone to do so - is opening the door to other options. Gains by local parties in regional elections this year and the likelihood of Artur Mas's CiU winning the forthcoming Catalonia election place regionalism very much to the fore. Neither the PP nor PSOE, both committed to the "state", is proving capable of holding back the tide of regionalist sentiment.
There has been no test of this sentiment in Mallorca and there won't be one until 2015 (unless something odd happens), but with trust in the Balearics PP eroding and PSOE locally in total disarray, might there be an opportunity for a third party?
The only obvious gain in popularity since the regional elections in 2011 has been for the PSM, the Mallorcan socialists, a party with a firmly pro-nationalist (Mallorcan nationalist) agenda. Now, however, there is El Pi, "autonomist" by mission statement, so therefore regionalist if not nationalist. But how much trust could it call upon? A new name, but there is still the hangover from the corrupt ways of the Unió Mallorquina and even the archived case against Jaume Font from his days with the PP.
There is hope that the UPyD, a genuinely new party when it was formed five years ago, might come to greater prominence. Devoid of any of the baggage associated with other parties, representative of a different style of centrist politics, it would be refreshing to see it make headway. But how could it? Without selling its soul, it is unlikely to ever have a machine sufficiently well-oiled to make a significant impact. It also doesn't deal in the populist, and it is this - populism - that is the real fear that lurks behind the collapse of trust in the two main parties.
Such a populist voice or presence hasn't emerged, but this doesn't mean that it couldn't. The loss of trust in the political parties has very strong echoes of the past, the 1930s, and placed in combination with the international humiliation that Spain is most likely to face when (not if) it finally bows to the inevitable bailout, the savaging of economic crisis, the need to seek scapegoats and the threat to nationhood posed by Mas and possibly others, the lack of the trust thing creates a potentially volatile situation. And this volatility may draw energy from the force within a black-hole vacuum of leadership that requires filling.
The measures taken to tackle economic crisis are bound to provoke a fall in popularity, but the loss of trust stems only partially from a feeling that politicians (including Rubalcaba) are incapable of truly tackling the crisis. It comes also from a belief that this incapability is linked with vested interests that create constraints. It is an acknowledgement of the inherent corruption of the political system, one that could be overlooked when times were good but cannot be now that times are bad.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Monday, February 06, 2012
Ruby Whacks (Chacón): PSOE leadership
In the words of the Kaiser Chiefs, "Ruby, Ruby, Ruby. Do ya, do ya, do ya?" It would be nice to think that at PSOE's grand, post-electoral-disaster congress, the PA system would have belted out the number by the Leeds indie-ists as Alfredo Rubalcaba got the nod as the party's new secretary-general. It almost certainly didn't happen. Apart from anything else, it would have been way too modern for old grey beard. More suitable would have been Cilla asking what it was all about, Alfie.
Ruby's win didn't exactly amount to a ringing endorsement. He staggered over the finishing-line with just 22 votes more than his rival, Carme Chacón. PSOE had the opportunity to put a woman in charge and to perhaps make her the first female premier of Spain, and they turned it down.
In the spirit of equality, Ruby has appointed Elena Valenciano as his number two, but this doesn't represent a great leap forward for womankind in Spanish politics. Zapatero had a woman as his "número dos" before Ruby replaced her. Rajoy has a right-hand woman as well.
Yet more equality has been shown in the selection as secretary for equality of one Purificación Causapié. What an astonishing name. Equality that comes with its own in-built system for treating the impurities of discrimination.
And there, lurking at the bottom of the list of runners and riders in shadow government secretarial roles, are the members of the executive, amongst whom is Mallorca's very own Francina Armengol, she who would be the new leader of PSOE in the Balearics. Having thrown her lot in with the victorious Uncle Alfie, Francina looks set to indeed be head socialist in the islands.
The defeat of Chacón will not be great news for the other pretender to the Balearics socialist throne, ex-Palma mayor Aina Calvo. It hasn't been entirely clear if Aina really is a pretender, as she has been distinctly equivocal on the matter. She had been angling for a gig rather grander than a mere executive member with Chacón. So now that she won't be getting one, the chances are that she will make a bid for the Balearics title. But she'd probably lose.
PSOE have, with Rubalcaba, opted for a safe pair of hands, ones that, in his own peculiar style, play a piano when he's speaking. For safe pair of hands, read boring, in much the same way as Rajoy is safe and utterly uninspiring. Not for the first time, and Rajoy is the prime example of this, Spanish politics has refused to dump a loser.
Chacón might have been the better bet, if only because the Rajoy government is starting to demonstrate - and no surprise here - that it wishes to retreat to the past. Rubalcaba is going to need all of Purificación's powers to prevent the hands of the liberalism clock being turned back. The national government's justice minister, and note that it is the justice minister and not the health minister, has said that it will undo some of the abortion legislation of the Zapatero era. In so doing, it will also set back the cause of women in Spanish society.
Which does make you wonder about Rajoy's right-hand woman. The lavishly named María Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría has already emerged as being the trouser-wearer in the Rajoy governmental household. When she first hovered onto the radar, and without my having any real idea about her, good old male intuition kicked in. And it is proving to be right. As Edward Hugh, one of the best writers in English on Spain's economics, has said: "what Soraya says goes".
If Soraya is aiming to be the new iron lady, she's going about it the right way. Iron ladies don't do much for the advancement of women though. Thatcher didn't, in that most women had no wish to be perceived in the same way as the mad bat.
Soraya could be Spain's first prime minister. If it turns out that she were to usurp Rajoy, it would be far better were she to go head to head and handbag to handbag with Chacón and not Uncle Alfie. Sparks would fly. And so they should, as the government is showing just how reactionary it was suspected that it would be.
For now though, it is Rubalcaba steering the listing PSOE back on course. Spain needs a strong opposition, and at least Rubalcaba has experience if not a great deal of charisma. He'll know what is demanded, but if he didn't, rather than "Ruby", they could play him the Kaiser Chiefs' first album "Employment", the best-known song from which was "I Predict A Riot".
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Ruby's win didn't exactly amount to a ringing endorsement. He staggered over the finishing-line with just 22 votes more than his rival, Carme Chacón. PSOE had the opportunity to put a woman in charge and to perhaps make her the first female premier of Spain, and they turned it down.
In the spirit of equality, Ruby has appointed Elena Valenciano as his number two, but this doesn't represent a great leap forward for womankind in Spanish politics. Zapatero had a woman as his "número dos" before Ruby replaced her. Rajoy has a right-hand woman as well.
Yet more equality has been shown in the selection as secretary for equality of one Purificación Causapié. What an astonishing name. Equality that comes with its own in-built system for treating the impurities of discrimination.
And there, lurking at the bottom of the list of runners and riders in shadow government secretarial roles, are the members of the executive, amongst whom is Mallorca's very own Francina Armengol, she who would be the new leader of PSOE in the Balearics. Having thrown her lot in with the victorious Uncle Alfie, Francina looks set to indeed be head socialist in the islands.
The defeat of Chacón will not be great news for the other pretender to the Balearics socialist throne, ex-Palma mayor Aina Calvo. It hasn't been entirely clear if Aina really is a pretender, as she has been distinctly equivocal on the matter. She had been angling for a gig rather grander than a mere executive member with Chacón. So now that she won't be getting one, the chances are that she will make a bid for the Balearics title. But she'd probably lose.
PSOE have, with Rubalcaba, opted for a safe pair of hands, ones that, in his own peculiar style, play a piano when he's speaking. For safe pair of hands, read boring, in much the same way as Rajoy is safe and utterly uninspiring. Not for the first time, and Rajoy is the prime example of this, Spanish politics has refused to dump a loser.
Chacón might have been the better bet, if only because the Rajoy government is starting to demonstrate - and no surprise here - that it wishes to retreat to the past. Rubalcaba is going to need all of Purificación's powers to prevent the hands of the liberalism clock being turned back. The national government's justice minister, and note that it is the justice minister and not the health minister, has said that it will undo some of the abortion legislation of the Zapatero era. In so doing, it will also set back the cause of women in Spanish society.
Which does make you wonder about Rajoy's right-hand woman. The lavishly named María Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría has already emerged as being the trouser-wearer in the Rajoy governmental household. When she first hovered onto the radar, and without my having any real idea about her, good old male intuition kicked in. And it is proving to be right. As Edward Hugh, one of the best writers in English on Spain's economics, has said: "what Soraya says goes".
If Soraya is aiming to be the new iron lady, she's going about it the right way. Iron ladies don't do much for the advancement of women though. Thatcher didn't, in that most women had no wish to be perceived in the same way as the mad bat.
Soraya could be Spain's first prime minister. If it turns out that she were to usurp Rajoy, it would be far better were she to go head to head and handbag to handbag with Chacón and not Uncle Alfie. Sparks would fly. And so they should, as the government is showing just how reactionary it was suspected that it would be.
For now though, it is Rubalcaba steering the listing PSOE back on course. Spain needs a strong opposition, and at least Rubalcaba has experience if not a great deal of charisma. He'll know what is demanded, but if he didn't, rather than "Ruby", they could play him the Kaiser Chiefs' first album "Employment", the best-known song from which was "I Predict A Riot".
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Leaders Wanted: PSOE
If you fancied becoming the leader of the PSOE socialist party in the Balearics, you would be disheartened were you to discover that your local party was laying into you big time and saying that, in effect, you were incompetent. If you are Francina Armengol, ex-president of the Council of Mallorca, the bookies' (now probably former) favourite to replace the one-time president Francesc Antich as the party chief, this is exactly the problem she faces.
Lack of direction, lack of ideological orientation. These are just a couple of the criticisms levelled at the former Council president, to which can be added errors in responding to the economic crisis and no excuses for an electoral hammering. It couldn't get much worse, except if the local grandees were to state unequivocally that they didn't want her to succeed Antich. Indirectly, they have.
PSOE's annihilation at the regional and national elections has created all manner of soul-searching and searching for anyone prepared to step into the fray and lead the party both regionally and nationally. There isn't a shortage of candidates, just that most of them are tarnished with electoral disaster. It's a bit like England's rugby team, post-World Cup. The old guard needs sweeping away and some fresh blood needs introducing to the party's backs and forwards. Unlike England's rugby team, it probably won't happen.
The lack of direction that Armengol is accused of could just as easily apply to the party as a whole in the Balearics. It is nearly eight months since it was thrashed at the regional elections, and it is still no nearer knowing who is meant to be leading it and where it is heading. At a time when the ruling Partido Popular seems intent on ripping itself apart, there is no worthwhile opposition which, were it to be better organised and to be acting as a genuine opposition, could be taking full advantage of Bauzá's linguistic troubles. As it is, the PP is its own opposition.
If Armengol, as seems increasingly likely, doesn't succeed Antich, then the former mayor of Palma, Aina Calvo, comes into the running: another of the old and defeated guard.
Aina is playing a wider game, though. She's thrown her lot in with one of the two main challengers for PSOE's national crown, Carme Chacón, until recently the defence minister in the Zapatero administration. Chacón might well end up being Spain's first female prime minister, and the first female prime minister from Catalonia, to boot. The chances are that she won't be and that the national old guard, in the form of the defeated PSOE candidate in November, Alfredo Rubalcaba, will remain at the head of PSOE.
It is a peculiarity of Spanish politics that there aren't great putsches of party old guards. Were there, then Mariano Rajoy would have disappeared from the scene long ago. Twice defeated, how he came to still be leading the PP into ultimate victory is a genuine mystery. It's a case of better the devil you know probably, even if the devil is as uninspiring as Rajoy. Or Rubalcaba.
Uncle Alfredo, and he does have the demeanour of a benevolent uncle, is conducting a campaign against Chacón similar to that which lost him the national election. He plays the reassuring and well-meaning uncle role at the family gathering but it is one in which he gets forgotten about when the family gets drunk and raucous. And conducting a campaign is rather apt, as Rubalcaba does this thing with hands, which makes him appear as if he is conducting an orchestra or playing the piano.
Nice, benign Uncle Alfredo reckons that Chacón is not, at the moment, a solution to PSOE's future. Which means that he is. But what is the future for PSOE, both nationally and in the Balearics?
Much will rest on how the public respond to the PP's cuts and to what further austerity is in the pipeline. Rajoy promised that there would be no rise in income tax and that he was the chap to get Spain back to work. The promise has already been broken and there is not going to be any getting Spain back to work for the foreseeable future; it will be the opposite. There are simply too many fires that need fighting both on the mainland and in Mallorca.
PSOE could probably just sit on their hands for the next four years and anticipate returning to power through default. Or they could be altogether more progressive. Dump Uncle Alfredo and put a woman in charge. But Aina or Francina for PSOE locally? You would think not, but you would probably think wrong.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Lack of direction, lack of ideological orientation. These are just a couple of the criticisms levelled at the former Council president, to which can be added errors in responding to the economic crisis and no excuses for an electoral hammering. It couldn't get much worse, except if the local grandees were to state unequivocally that they didn't want her to succeed Antich. Indirectly, they have.
PSOE's annihilation at the regional and national elections has created all manner of soul-searching and searching for anyone prepared to step into the fray and lead the party both regionally and nationally. There isn't a shortage of candidates, just that most of them are tarnished with electoral disaster. It's a bit like England's rugby team, post-World Cup. The old guard needs sweeping away and some fresh blood needs introducing to the party's backs and forwards. Unlike England's rugby team, it probably won't happen.
The lack of direction that Armengol is accused of could just as easily apply to the party as a whole in the Balearics. It is nearly eight months since it was thrashed at the regional elections, and it is still no nearer knowing who is meant to be leading it and where it is heading. At a time when the ruling Partido Popular seems intent on ripping itself apart, there is no worthwhile opposition which, were it to be better organised and to be acting as a genuine opposition, could be taking full advantage of Bauzá's linguistic troubles. As it is, the PP is its own opposition.
If Armengol, as seems increasingly likely, doesn't succeed Antich, then the former mayor of Palma, Aina Calvo, comes into the running: another of the old and defeated guard.
Aina is playing a wider game, though. She's thrown her lot in with one of the two main challengers for PSOE's national crown, Carme Chacón, until recently the defence minister in the Zapatero administration. Chacón might well end up being Spain's first female prime minister, and the first female prime minister from Catalonia, to boot. The chances are that she won't be and that the national old guard, in the form of the defeated PSOE candidate in November, Alfredo Rubalcaba, will remain at the head of PSOE.
It is a peculiarity of Spanish politics that there aren't great putsches of party old guards. Were there, then Mariano Rajoy would have disappeared from the scene long ago. Twice defeated, how he came to still be leading the PP into ultimate victory is a genuine mystery. It's a case of better the devil you know probably, even if the devil is as uninspiring as Rajoy. Or Rubalcaba.
Uncle Alfredo, and he does have the demeanour of a benevolent uncle, is conducting a campaign against Chacón similar to that which lost him the national election. He plays the reassuring and well-meaning uncle role at the family gathering but it is one in which he gets forgotten about when the family gets drunk and raucous. And conducting a campaign is rather apt, as Rubalcaba does this thing with hands, which makes him appear as if he is conducting an orchestra or playing the piano.
Nice, benign Uncle Alfredo reckons that Chacón is not, at the moment, a solution to PSOE's future. Which means that he is. But what is the future for PSOE, both nationally and in the Balearics?
Much will rest on how the public respond to the PP's cuts and to what further austerity is in the pipeline. Rajoy promised that there would be no rise in income tax and that he was the chap to get Spain back to work. The promise has already been broken and there is not going to be any getting Spain back to work for the foreseeable future; it will be the opposite. There are simply too many fires that need fighting both on the mainland and in Mallorca.
PSOE could probably just sit on their hands for the next four years and anticipate returning to power through default. Or they could be altogether more progressive. Dump Uncle Alfredo and put a woman in charge. But Aina or Francina for PSOE locally? You would think not, but you would probably think wrong.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
The Long Hello And Goodbye
In the final week before the national election, no polls can be published; they might distort public opinion, or so the theory goes. Come the final 24 hours before the election, and everyone has to shut up and allow themselves a period of reflection before heading to the polls on Sunday to do the awful deed.
Putting a block on more polls is unnecessary; there hasn’t been a need for polls for months. PSOE’s long goodbye should go into the Guinness Book of Records for the most time it has been known that a political party would lose the next election. And badly.
Nothing has altered the path to the inevitable Partido Popular victory: not a Rubalcaba bounce when Zapatero confirmed that he knew the way the wind was blowing; not a surge of support from the right when PSOE carved up the constitution and committed the deficit requirement to law; not a wave of thanks to PSOE when ETA called it a day.
The eclipse of PSOE on Sunday will be the culmination of the process started by the credit crunch and Zapatero’s attempts to calm a nation’s fears. By saying there was no crisis, he was whistling in the dark; his delusion, a fiddling of inaction while capitalism burned. He responded too slowly, but he was damned if he did and damned if he didn’t. The game was up as soon as crisis raised its unlovely head. The story would have been the same had the PP been in government - and they know it.
Mariano Rajoy will be the next president of Spain, and president, by title and tradition going back to the nineteenth century, it is; calling him prime minister is in line with how titles normally work in a parliamentary monarchy. Rajoy’s ascendancy has been the long hello, so long in fact it is difficult to understand how he comes to still figure. Beaten by Zapatero in 2008, long dismissed as inadequate by many commentators and even members of his own party, one of them being the former PM José Maria Aznar, it is a mystery what he is doing about to take office.
Rajoy is becoming prime minister (president) by default. He has had to do nothing and say nothing. The prize has been his ever since the flames from Lehman and utterances regarding the previously unheard of subprime market first flickered across dealers' screens. Prime minister by default and prime minister by superior force and direction. Just as the Balearics Bauzá is a puppet on a long string stretching from PP central office, so Rajoy dances to the tune of his own master. And if Rubalcaba is to be believed, that is Aznar; Aznar who has been contemptuous of his successor and now treats him as the dummy to his ventriloquism.
The electoral slogan for Rajoy is both simple and simplistic. "Súmate al cambio". Join the change, more or less. When all else fails, and it normally does, politicians bring out the change word. It is the default slogan for a default prime minister; vote for me, I'm not the other lot. But what will Rajoy change? More pain and more austerity are not change; they are more pain and more austerity, and the electorate is heading to the polling stations to vote for masochism.
"Masoquismo" and "machismo". Macho politics with which to confront the unions and employment conditions. Mariano as Margaret, tackling the enemy within. Change is necessary, but at what cost socially (and industrially), as Thatcher stubbornly ignored. The unions, though, have been but one part of the collusive complacency of Spain's social capitalism model; they have been a loveably roguish pantomime villain to the Prince Charmings of successive governments of both blue and red who have flaunted the glass slippers of boom-time politics.
It was Zapatero's misfortune to be the shoemaker who couldn't repair the slipper. He can be accused of a lack of foresight, but foresight with hindsight is a wonderful thing; he danced to his own tune, as had previous Spanish leaders, one with an exciting boom-boom beat, but he ended up a busted flush and a boom-time rat.
Yet for all this, Zapatero helped to mould a Spain far more at ease with itself. The pain that Rajoy is about to inflict, and it is going to be painful, might just be acceptable, though by no means to all, but if he insists on a change that is a back to the future in terms of cultural, social and religious policies, he may not find the populace so willing to support him.
Come Sunday, the electorate of turkeys will vote for Christmas, and after Sunday, things will change. Just don't expect them to be very pleasant.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Putting a block on more polls is unnecessary; there hasn’t been a need for polls for months. PSOE’s long goodbye should go into the Guinness Book of Records for the most time it has been known that a political party would lose the next election. And badly.
Nothing has altered the path to the inevitable Partido Popular victory: not a Rubalcaba bounce when Zapatero confirmed that he knew the way the wind was blowing; not a surge of support from the right when PSOE carved up the constitution and committed the deficit requirement to law; not a wave of thanks to PSOE when ETA called it a day.
The eclipse of PSOE on Sunday will be the culmination of the process started by the credit crunch and Zapatero’s attempts to calm a nation’s fears. By saying there was no crisis, he was whistling in the dark; his delusion, a fiddling of inaction while capitalism burned. He responded too slowly, but he was damned if he did and damned if he didn’t. The game was up as soon as crisis raised its unlovely head. The story would have been the same had the PP been in government - and they know it.
Mariano Rajoy will be the next president of Spain, and president, by title and tradition going back to the nineteenth century, it is; calling him prime minister is in line with how titles normally work in a parliamentary monarchy. Rajoy’s ascendancy has been the long hello, so long in fact it is difficult to understand how he comes to still figure. Beaten by Zapatero in 2008, long dismissed as inadequate by many commentators and even members of his own party, one of them being the former PM José Maria Aznar, it is a mystery what he is doing about to take office.
Rajoy is becoming prime minister (president) by default. He has had to do nothing and say nothing. The prize has been his ever since the flames from Lehman and utterances regarding the previously unheard of subprime market first flickered across dealers' screens. Prime minister by default and prime minister by superior force and direction. Just as the Balearics Bauzá is a puppet on a long string stretching from PP central office, so Rajoy dances to the tune of his own master. And if Rubalcaba is to be believed, that is Aznar; Aznar who has been contemptuous of his successor and now treats him as the dummy to his ventriloquism.
The electoral slogan for Rajoy is both simple and simplistic. "Súmate al cambio". Join the change, more or less. When all else fails, and it normally does, politicians bring out the change word. It is the default slogan for a default prime minister; vote for me, I'm not the other lot. But what will Rajoy change? More pain and more austerity are not change; they are more pain and more austerity, and the electorate is heading to the polling stations to vote for masochism.
"Masoquismo" and "machismo". Macho politics with which to confront the unions and employment conditions. Mariano as Margaret, tackling the enemy within. Change is necessary, but at what cost socially (and industrially), as Thatcher stubbornly ignored. The unions, though, have been but one part of the collusive complacency of Spain's social capitalism model; they have been a loveably roguish pantomime villain to the Prince Charmings of successive governments of both blue and red who have flaunted the glass slippers of boom-time politics.
It was Zapatero's misfortune to be the shoemaker who couldn't repair the slipper. He can be accused of a lack of foresight, but foresight with hindsight is a wonderful thing; he danced to his own tune, as had previous Spanish leaders, one with an exciting boom-boom beat, but he ended up a busted flush and a boom-time rat.
Yet for all this, Zapatero helped to mould a Spain far more at ease with itself. The pain that Rajoy is about to inflict, and it is going to be painful, might just be acceptable, though by no means to all, but if he insists on a change that is a back to the future in terms of cultural, social and religious policies, he may not find the populace so willing to support him.
Come Sunday, the electorate of turkeys will vote for Christmas, and after Sunday, things will change. Just don't expect them to be very pleasant.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
Face To Face
Face to face, face off, face up to facts, put a brave face on things, put a face to someone. Idiomatic contortions of "face" just go to emphasise how important the face is.
The face determines much. It determines reaction and impression by others, and it betrays reaction and impression on behalf of the "face" him or herself. Face to face, "cara a cara", determined much. This was the face off between the Spanish prime ministerial candidates, facing up to the facts that inform the election, or diligently ignoring them, one putting a brave face on things, both being people you could put a face to.
Even if you were already familiar with the faces of Mariano Rajoy and Alfredo Rubalcaba, exposed to the television camera, facing each other across a vast desk, you saw things you hadn't previously. Rubalcaba looked younger than his Solzhenitsyn appearance suggests, though he seemed to visibly age during his encounter with Rajoy who had seemed to have taken a leaf out of his predecessor Aznar's book and had formed an acquaintance with hair dye; his beard looked strangely grey against a full head of vibrant brown.
The electoral debate on Spanish television was an event akin to a major football final. The lead-up was endless, a clock in the top right-hand corner giving a countdown to how long it was before the face to face occurred. Analysts there were in abundance, children had been asked as to their choice of next prime minister, campaign leaders of the two camps talked up their boys, the one heading the PSOE campaign standing in front of a legend which read "formularubalcaba"; socialist medicine, one presumed.
Then there were the presenters. Spanish television has taken the message of equality to the extreme. Barely a male was to be seen amidst the great numbers of female presenters. And what strikes one about them is the fact that nearly all are gorgeous. There aren't many heirs to the throne or Spanish national football team captains and goalkeepers to go around, but a career in television does offer its marital and partner opportunities, though what does one make of the strikingly blonde Maria Casado, whose surname suggests that she already is married?
And so, eventually, to the face to face itself. The moderator wished everyone a good evening, including America, which might not have been glued to television screens as much as he might have hoped; Obama, one imagines, had better things to do than devote a couple of hours to potential leaders of a country that barely registers in the international scheme of things.
Though of course it might register, if the economy goes totally belly-up, and it was this, the economy, that formed the first part of the debate, the rules being set out by our moderator friend, a moustachioed gentleman with a resemblance to Bob Carolgees minus Spit the Dog.
It mattered little what was actually said. Far more important was the watching, the studying of the faces. Here were the two men with the fate of a nation in their hands, and what a choice they offer. The best one might say about either is that he is a safe pair of hands, possibly, but both are terminally dull, terminally bearded and grey, despite the efforts of the make-up people. Spain doesn't do charisma politics.
They argued occasionally, some heat was given off, dismissiveness of the opponent was shown on the face, but only once was there genuine contempt, Rubalcaba's glance at Rajoy during the bit on social policies saying all you needed to know. It was all pretty well-mannered and formal. "Señor Rajoy" and "Señor Rubalcaba"; both deployed the "usted" form. Little enlivened proceedings except for when Rubalcaba suddenly produced a graphic during the pensions debate; it was as though he were on a chat show and had remembered that he had a book to promote or as though he were on "Blue Peter" - here's a graphic I made earlier.
When it came to an end, you were none the wiser. Bob Carolgees signed off events with thanks all round. There was no shaking of hands, no smiles for the camera, just a long, lingering shot of the desk on a stage in front of an absent audience. Frankly, it had all been an enervating experience, but then politics often are, especially when the protagonists are as stripped of vitality as these two.
Rajoy probably won, but then so he should as he went into the face to face in a position of strength, PSOE fast disappearing down the opinion poll plug hole. Rubalcaba's face will have done little to have reversed the trend.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
The face determines much. It determines reaction and impression by others, and it betrays reaction and impression on behalf of the "face" him or herself. Face to face, "cara a cara", determined much. This was the face off between the Spanish prime ministerial candidates, facing up to the facts that inform the election, or diligently ignoring them, one putting a brave face on things, both being people you could put a face to.
Even if you were already familiar with the faces of Mariano Rajoy and Alfredo Rubalcaba, exposed to the television camera, facing each other across a vast desk, you saw things you hadn't previously. Rubalcaba looked younger than his Solzhenitsyn appearance suggests, though he seemed to visibly age during his encounter with Rajoy who had seemed to have taken a leaf out of his predecessor Aznar's book and had formed an acquaintance with hair dye; his beard looked strangely grey against a full head of vibrant brown.
The electoral debate on Spanish television was an event akin to a major football final. The lead-up was endless, a clock in the top right-hand corner giving a countdown to how long it was before the face to face occurred. Analysts there were in abundance, children had been asked as to their choice of next prime minister, campaign leaders of the two camps talked up their boys, the one heading the PSOE campaign standing in front of a legend which read "formularubalcaba"; socialist medicine, one presumed.
Then there were the presenters. Spanish television has taken the message of equality to the extreme. Barely a male was to be seen amidst the great numbers of female presenters. And what strikes one about them is the fact that nearly all are gorgeous. There aren't many heirs to the throne or Spanish national football team captains and goalkeepers to go around, but a career in television does offer its marital and partner opportunities, though what does one make of the strikingly blonde Maria Casado, whose surname suggests that she already is married?
And so, eventually, to the face to face itself. The moderator wished everyone a good evening, including America, which might not have been glued to television screens as much as he might have hoped; Obama, one imagines, had better things to do than devote a couple of hours to potential leaders of a country that barely registers in the international scheme of things.
Though of course it might register, if the economy goes totally belly-up, and it was this, the economy, that formed the first part of the debate, the rules being set out by our moderator friend, a moustachioed gentleman with a resemblance to Bob Carolgees minus Spit the Dog.
It mattered little what was actually said. Far more important was the watching, the studying of the faces. Here were the two men with the fate of a nation in their hands, and what a choice they offer. The best one might say about either is that he is a safe pair of hands, possibly, but both are terminally dull, terminally bearded and grey, despite the efforts of the make-up people. Spain doesn't do charisma politics.
They argued occasionally, some heat was given off, dismissiveness of the opponent was shown on the face, but only once was there genuine contempt, Rubalcaba's glance at Rajoy during the bit on social policies saying all you needed to know. It was all pretty well-mannered and formal. "Señor Rajoy" and "Señor Rubalcaba"; both deployed the "usted" form. Little enlivened proceedings except for when Rubalcaba suddenly produced a graphic during the pensions debate; it was as though he were on a chat show and had remembered that he had a book to promote or as though he were on "Blue Peter" - here's a graphic I made earlier.
When it came to an end, you were none the wiser. Bob Carolgees signed off events with thanks all round. There was no shaking of hands, no smiles for the camera, just a long, lingering shot of the desk on a stage in front of an absent audience. Frankly, it had all been an enervating experience, but then politics often are, especially when the protagonists are as stripped of vitality as these two.
Rajoy probably won, but then so he should as he went into the face to face in a position of strength, PSOE fast disappearing down the opinion poll plug hole. Rubalcaba's face will have done little to have reversed the trend.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
The Battle Of The Beards
Beard is a slang term for a partner who disguises the other partner's true sexual orientation. Let me say straightaway that I do not suggest for one moment that either Mariano Rajoy or Alfredo Rubalcaba would have a beard (except of course that both of them, in a hair sense, do) and that either is anything other than 100% heterosexual. That said, a touch of gayness might play well with Rubalcaba's more liberal audience, while it wouldn't with Rajoy's conservative constituency.
José Luis Zapatero's announcement of a November general election ushers forth, earlier than expected, the battle of the beards; the hustings of the hirsute will take place sooner than we had thought.
Zapatero, clean-shaven, will be succeeded by greying facial hair of either the left or right. The good money, at present, is on a right-wing full set, but Rubalcaba could yet take a Gillette to Rajoy, the polls suggesting that he has already started to trim the Partido Popular beard.
With Zapatero's departure in November, we will lose one of the great comedy characters of European politics. What beckons next for José Luis Bean? A series of "The Thin Blue Line"? Inappropriate perhaps, if only in terms of colour. With his going, we will be deprived of one of the finest lookalikes to ever step onto the world stage, but we could yet get another.
Rubalcaba is a dead ringer for Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (in his younger, less beardy days that is). And then there's his name. Rubal? Ruble? Is there a closet Russian in the PSOE house, an old-time Commie waiting to emerge and lead Spain from its hard-labour Gulag of economic crisis? Or indeed plunge it deeper into crisis?
Unfortunately, we are unlikely to ever know or to ever have the satisfaction of having a former Russian novelist meeting Putin or Medvedev at European leaders' gatherings. Instead there will be Rajoy, the greyest man of Spanish politics, bereft of charisma and any redeeming comedic features.
But whoever wins the upcoming election will be starting from a position of handicap. Both Rajoy and Rubalcaba can consider themselves already stripped of some support. Why? Because politicians with beards have been shown to poll worse than those without.
Spanish political facial hair has generally been absent since the days of Franco, who sported a sort of Hitler but never a beard. José Maria Aznar brought the moustache back into political fashion, along with hair dye, but Zapatero reverted to the clean-shaven presidential (or prime ministerial, if you prefer) look that had been favoured by Felipe González.
Now, though, the electorate is faced not only by faces with moustaches but those also with beards. It will make for a very difficult choice. On the basis that men with beards cannot be trusted, both may fail to win.
This is not anti-beardism on my behalf, but a statement of the fact that politicians with beards don't go down that well with electorates. And if one considers some of the leading political beards of the generation, you can begin to appreciate why: various Iranian ayatollahs as well as Ahmadineyad, Castro, David Blunkett.
When Europe's political leaders line up for photos at economic crisis meetings any time after the Spanish elections, there will be one particularly conspicuous leader. Who's the weird beard, will go the question. All other of Europe's politicians have engaged the use of the razor. David Cameron, Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel; none of them bearded, or even close to being. Yet, there will be Rajoy (or Rubalcaba) in the glare of the cameras with bits of Euro-leaders' lunch clinging to the chin. At a time when Moody's is threatening to downgrade Spain's credit rating, the last thing Spain needs is a future prime minister who can't be trusted.
It is the beard factor that makes any prospect of Rajoy turning Spain's fortunes around to be illusory. The question is, therefore: will he (or Rubalcaba) do the decent thing, in the name of Spanish economic recovery, and have a shave?
But to come back to the beard slang term, there is a definite contrast in style to the two political beards who will be battling it out in November. Rubalcaba's Solzhenitsyn hints at something vaguely Bohemian and liberal. His beard is in keeping with the social policies that Zapatero has so successfully managed to introduce. It is the beard of a left-wing university lecturer who insists on wearing sandals.
Rajoy's, on the other hand, is a studious and serious affair, as befits a studious and serious man disinclined to approve of liberal frivolities. It is the beard of a suited management consultant sent in to effect swingeing cuts. Which is exactly what he will do of course.
Bring on November, bring on the beards, and let's get ready to stubble.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Index for July 2011
Associations, business and tourist - 27 July 2011
Balcony diving - 2 July 2011
Beaches and umbrellas - 10 July 2011
Butane gas service - 24 July 2011
Can Picafort ducks: legal change called for - 28 July 2011
Catalan v. Castilian - 29 July 2011
Chemists threatening to close - 22 July 2011
Competitiveness, tourism - 21 July 2011
Dogs - 23 July 2011
Election, Spanish general - 31 July 2011
Fiesta funding - 3 July 2011, 7 July 2011
Fiesta parties - 13 July 2011, 19 July 2011
Full English breakfast - 20 July 2011
Holiday lets, private - 5 July 2011, 8 July 2011
Hotel conversion - 8 July 2011
Hotels for sale - 12 July 2011
Language gaffes - 14 July 2011
Maps - 18 July 2011
News Of The World - 11 July 2011
Newspapers, iPad and - 17 July 2011
No Frills Excursions and social media - 9 July 2011
Pollensa Music Festival - 1 July 2011, 4 July 2011
Restaurant business failure - 16 July 2011
Russian tourists - 25 July 2011
Subbuteo and table games - 26 July 2011
Tenders - 6 July 2011
Tradition industry, Mallorca's - 30 July 2011
TV Mallorca to close - 15 July 2011
José Luis Zapatero's announcement of a November general election ushers forth, earlier than expected, the battle of the beards; the hustings of the hirsute will take place sooner than we had thought.
Zapatero, clean-shaven, will be succeeded by greying facial hair of either the left or right. The good money, at present, is on a right-wing full set, but Rubalcaba could yet take a Gillette to Rajoy, the polls suggesting that he has already started to trim the Partido Popular beard.
With Zapatero's departure in November, we will lose one of the great comedy characters of European politics. What beckons next for José Luis Bean? A series of "The Thin Blue Line"? Inappropriate perhaps, if only in terms of colour. With his going, we will be deprived of one of the finest lookalikes to ever step onto the world stage, but we could yet get another.
Rubalcaba is a dead ringer for Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (in his younger, less beardy days that is). And then there's his name. Rubal? Ruble? Is there a closet Russian in the PSOE house, an old-time Commie waiting to emerge and lead Spain from its hard-labour Gulag of economic crisis? Or indeed plunge it deeper into crisis?
Unfortunately, we are unlikely to ever know or to ever have the satisfaction of having a former Russian novelist meeting Putin or Medvedev at European leaders' gatherings. Instead there will be Rajoy, the greyest man of Spanish politics, bereft of charisma and any redeeming comedic features.
But whoever wins the upcoming election will be starting from a position of handicap. Both Rajoy and Rubalcaba can consider themselves already stripped of some support. Why? Because politicians with beards have been shown to poll worse than those without.
Spanish political facial hair has generally been absent since the days of Franco, who sported a sort of Hitler but never a beard. José Maria Aznar brought the moustache back into political fashion, along with hair dye, but Zapatero reverted to the clean-shaven presidential (or prime ministerial, if you prefer) look that had been favoured by Felipe González.
Now, though, the electorate is faced not only by faces with moustaches but those also with beards. It will make for a very difficult choice. On the basis that men with beards cannot be trusted, both may fail to win.
This is not anti-beardism on my behalf, but a statement of the fact that politicians with beards don't go down that well with electorates. And if one considers some of the leading political beards of the generation, you can begin to appreciate why: various Iranian ayatollahs as well as Ahmadineyad, Castro, David Blunkett.
When Europe's political leaders line up for photos at economic crisis meetings any time after the Spanish elections, there will be one particularly conspicuous leader. Who's the weird beard, will go the question. All other of Europe's politicians have engaged the use of the razor. David Cameron, Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel; none of them bearded, or even close to being. Yet, there will be Rajoy (or Rubalcaba) in the glare of the cameras with bits of Euro-leaders' lunch clinging to the chin. At a time when Moody's is threatening to downgrade Spain's credit rating, the last thing Spain needs is a future prime minister who can't be trusted.
It is the beard factor that makes any prospect of Rajoy turning Spain's fortunes around to be illusory. The question is, therefore: will he (or Rubalcaba) do the decent thing, in the name of Spanish economic recovery, and have a shave?
But to come back to the beard slang term, there is a definite contrast in style to the two political beards who will be battling it out in November. Rubalcaba's Solzhenitsyn hints at something vaguely Bohemian and liberal. His beard is in keeping with the social policies that Zapatero has so successfully managed to introduce. It is the beard of a left-wing university lecturer who insists on wearing sandals.
Rajoy's, on the other hand, is a studious and serious affair, as befits a studious and serious man disinclined to approve of liberal frivolities. It is the beard of a suited management consultant sent in to effect swingeing cuts. Which is exactly what he will do of course.
Bring on November, bring on the beards, and let's get ready to stubble.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Index for July 2011
Associations, business and tourist - 27 July 2011
Balcony diving - 2 July 2011
Beaches and umbrellas - 10 July 2011
Butane gas service - 24 July 2011
Can Picafort ducks: legal change called for - 28 July 2011
Catalan v. Castilian - 29 July 2011
Chemists threatening to close - 22 July 2011
Competitiveness, tourism - 21 July 2011
Dogs - 23 July 2011
Election, Spanish general - 31 July 2011
Fiesta funding - 3 July 2011, 7 July 2011
Fiesta parties - 13 July 2011, 19 July 2011
Full English breakfast - 20 July 2011
Holiday lets, private - 5 July 2011, 8 July 2011
Hotel conversion - 8 July 2011
Hotels for sale - 12 July 2011
Language gaffes - 14 July 2011
Maps - 18 July 2011
News Of The World - 11 July 2011
Newspapers, iPad and - 17 July 2011
No Frills Excursions and social media - 9 July 2011
Pollensa Music Festival - 1 July 2011, 4 July 2011
Restaurant business failure - 16 July 2011
Russian tourists - 25 July 2011
Subbuteo and table games - 26 July 2011
Tenders - 6 July 2011
Tradition industry, Mallorca's - 30 July 2011
TV Mallorca to close - 15 July 2011
Friday, July 29, 2011
MALLORCA TODAY - Spanish elections brought forward to November
President Zapatero, seeking to reduce political and economic uncertainty, has announced that the Spanish national elections will be held on 20 November this year, five months before they would have been due to have been held. Sr. Zapatero will not be standing as president at the elections, his former deputy and interior minister in the PSOE socialist party, Alfredo Rubalcaba, having been nominated as presidential candidate to stand against Mariano Rajoy of the Partido Popular. The PP holds a lead in the polls at present, but the gap between the PP and PSOE has narrowed since it became clear that Rubalcaba would be the candidate.
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