Sunday, December 18, 2011

Falling Apart: PSOE and PP

Consistent with the navel-gazing that follows electoral batterings in the UK, defeated political parties in Spain and the Balearics are subject to similar appraisals and predictions of breaking up. Such a forecast, for example, was made in respect of the Conservatives in 1997, and it came to nothing. The impulse for politicians is, generally speaking, to stick with the devils they know and to bear in mind lessons from the likes of the "Gang Of Four" who were very swiftly gobbled up by the alliance that became the Liberal Democrats.

PSOE (aka PSIB) in the Balearics is, like the socialist party nationally, now facing these sorts of predictions. They are also unlikely to come to anything, but this doesn't stop commentators suggesting that the party could break up and that its future is all but behind it.

PSOE, nationally at any rate and in terms of its longevity, might be said to be the natural party of Spanish government. Its origins as a Marxist party in 1879 give it a place in history that is some one hundred years longer than that of its main rival, the Partido Popular. In the Balearics, however, the PP, since autonomy and the first regional elections in 1983, has dominated; it can claim to be the natural party of Balearics government for a region of Spain that has traditionally leaned towards conservatism.

The sixteen years of PP government from 1983 gave the party a further and lingering advantage over PSOE in the Balearics; that of its actual organisation at town and village level. To use a cliché, it is a well-oiled machine that PSOE has never been.

Organisation and history apart, a key challenge for PSOE is that the left and the centre-left in the Balearics is fragmented in a way that the right and centre-right isn't. The PSM Mallorcan socialists and others occupy territory to its left but contribute to the splitting of the left vote.

The PP, on the other hand, has benefited from the virtual disappearance of the nationalist centre-right that was the Unió Mallorquina and from the failure of disaffected PP members to establish a credible alternative: Jaume Font's La Lliga.

It is against this background that PSOE will convene in February to elect a new leader and future presidential candidate. And the choices do not necessarily inspire huge confidence: Francina Armengol, the former president of the Council of Mallorca, an institution riddled with debt; Aina Calvo, the ex-mayor of Palma, where the town hall is similarly deep in the red; Ramon Socias, the curious figure who has been the Balearics delegate to central government and one who seems generally unpopular with the local rank-and-file.

The selection and also the philosophy going forward may be influenced by an event due to take place shortly before. Prime Minister Zapatero is planning a national congress to address PSOE's future earlier in February. Whatever the outcome of this, PSOE locally, with its shortlist of tainted candidates, might do well to pick some new and different blood.

It is a prospect that this national congress may just propel PSOE towards the right that gives some credence to forecasts that the party may break up. It is possible, but, as with Labour, it is unlikely; the desire for power that comes from a recognisable political force is too great.

Indeed, the possibility of a PSOE splinter in the Balearics is not as strong as the possibility of one within the PP or of, at the least, growing tensions within the PP.

In the name of victory at the regional elections, these were understated, but they were there all the same and they are now coming to the fore. The cheerleader of the PP's left wing is Antoni Pastor, who has suggested he might stand aside as mayor of Manacor. If he does, what's he going to do?

Pastor chose not to jump ship and hook up with Font's La Lliga, but some of the dynamics that helped the PP to benefit in May could now be exploited to form a more credible alternative than La Lliga. And these dynamics occupy the ground left behind by the Unió Mallorquina - the regionalist politics of the centre-right, with which many in the PP are sympathetic.

Again, it's unlikely that a new party might emerge, but the tensions are such that opposition to President Bauzá will grow from within his party. At a time, therefore, when PSOE looks to be holed below the line, the local PP could be about to embark on a process that rips it apart.


Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.

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