You Ain't Got No Responsibility

Miquel Nadal, the tourism minister, wants the media to act responsibly. Not the first time we have ever heard a minister of whatever colour or country make such a request. In the "Majorca Daily Bulletin" yesterday was a report that, in a sense, was quite extraordinary. Sr. Nadal was asking for, almost demanding, that the media portray a healthy situation in respect of next season's tourism. He doesn't want scaremongering or talk of a disaster, himself saying that the 2009 season will be "a great one". Though he is chipper, or at least his announcement is, behind the call to the media lies, one suspects, a more sober appraisal.

But always rely on a politician to look for a positive spin, I suppose. In one sense, he is absolutely right. Rather like one feels that there is a tendency for the media to talk economies into recession, so - one could argue - it can do the same in creating a poor tourist season, though I think that this is stretching a point. Positivity rather than negativity can help, if nothing else, to try and lift spirits and give some cause for optimism as opposed to the bleakness of pessimism. He's right in this regard. But he is also wrong. Does he realise what he is asking for? There is a word for it - propaganda. The media pumps out much governmental propaganda as it is, but its role is to comment upon, analyse and question it, not to blindly accept it. To do so would be to abrogate responsibility.

Talk of a disaster is way wide of the mark, and it would be irresponsible to predict one. There is enough evidence, independent of government spin or statistics, to suggest that the season will be - should be - acceptable if nothing more. But the media has to be allowed, in a balanced fashion, to present realities and to not paint a picture of all things being rosy when they are not. Does Sr. Nadal expect the media to report the unemployment figures and the slump in the construction industry as evidence of a vibrant economy? Tourism is so vital that any indications of a downturn are not just a single-column mention on an inside page, they are front-page headlines. Mallorca is tourism, and the minister is fully aware of this - one would hope.

One of the problems for Sr. Nadal is that there is a gap between what the government says, and the statistics it produces, and what is experienced by businesses. There is a credibility issue; the government's figures are not believed. When it was said that tourism spend had actually increased this year, one could hear the sarcastic laughs stretching the length of the resorts' promenades. The word on the street, if you like, is a different language to that of governmental offices. Furthermore, the minister says that tour operators always present a more unfavourable situation in seeking to get a "better deal". On 16 November (Smooth Operators), I referred to the decline in sales being reported by both TUI and Thomas Cook - an average of 18.5% for the UK market between the two companies. That piece also mentioned the 20% increase in sales that the tourism ministry is suggesting, a point reiterated yesterday. How does one reconcile the two? When Sr. Nadal speaks of a 20% rise in "takings", what exactly does he mean? My reading of this is that he may be somewhat disingenuous. The tour operators are reducing capacity and at the same time increasing prices. It is a simple law of economics that, assuming sales do come through, "takings" will rise if you cut the costs of production (the capacity) and up your prices. As a tactic, it does not mean that volume (numbers of tourists) will be the same; indeed it explicitly represents a fall. The tour operators may be giving off some less than buoyant figures, but the minister should bear in mind that they are public companies and are bound by rules of governance as to announcements. To overstate the case, to send out an over-optimistic message is to run the risk of breaching their own compliance. Governments have no such governance.

But when Sr. Nadal calls for responsible reporting, is he not overegging the media pudding? To what extent does the local media have any impact on, for example, the British holidaymaker? Spanish perhaps, though even here I would doubt it. It is the case that foreign media does pick up on local stories and issues, and they have, apparently to detrimental effect. The property market is one, if you can believe what at least one estate agency has told me. But that is different. The size and nature of property versus holiday investments bear no comparison. If a holidaymaker learns that Mallorca may have a poorer tourist season in 2009, is the minister seriously suggesting that this will make him think twice about coming? Hardly. He knows for himself what the tour operators are doing and saying. And he knows full well about the exchange rate, recession and the credit crunch. He can thank the media to an extent, but he can also see it for himself. A more likely target of negative reporting, in Sr. Nadal's eyes, is probably that of local businesses who, believing things might be bad, will hold off with their own investments and employment. I suspect, however, that many will be doing this anyway, with or without the word of the media to guide them. (And I will probably come to an aspect of this tomorrow.)

I have no wish to talk down the coming tourist season. There are business owners here who read this blog and for whom I would like to say that everything is going to be just dandy, and I hope that it will be. But I am sufficiently close enough to these owners and to what is said generally to know that there is a discrepancy between what the government says and what businesses' realities are. Sr. Nadal talks of the "reality" in his dismissing tour operators' protestations of an unfavourable situation. One is left to ask what is the reality.


CONSTITUTION DAY
On a quite different note, today is a celebration, a public holiday, the thirtieth anniversary of the "Carta Magna", the Spanish constitution, ratified by referendum on this day in 1978 and then given the royal seal on 27 December of that year. And some said it would never last.


QUIZ
Yesterday's title - Madness (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYZNSyP9v9M). Today's title - there is another line in this: "you're a million miles from reality". More Motown harmony and cheesy choreography and outfits.

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