The maths are simple, give or take a plus or minus here and there. The latest poll suggests that a coalition of the right/centre-right could come into power after the 2019 election. This poll doesn't show any great movement from one last summer. It merely confirms the fact that the only party making a notable gain in the opinion polls is one of those on the loosely defined centre-right - Ciudadanos. It further verifies that PSOE and the Partido Popular are stuck in neutral and that Podemos and Més are in reverse.
If nothing else, the poll reveals that the "new politics" are very much alive. The pattern in the past with PSOE-led governments has been for the PP to come along and trounce them. There's no chance of that happening in 2019, and the PP know it. The party's spokesperson, Marga Prohens, has alluded to the fact that the PP will need a pact in order to form a government.
Unless there is some form of political earthquake between now and May next year, it is clear that there will be a coalition of one form or another. Polls, as we know, are not always accurate, but as the latest shows little movement compared with the previous, it is probably a fair reflection of wider voter sentiment.
A conclusion that the right/centre-right would automatically make an alliance, assuming they together reach the thirty seat majority threshold, is too simplistic. There are issues which bind them and those which do not. El Pi, forecast to increase by one its seats in parliament (from the current three to four), is already being cast in the role of kingmaker. Potentially, El Pi could go either way.
One of the principal differences between the PP, the C's and El Pi is the Catalan question, in particular the language and culture. El Pi was formed in a circuitous fashion. It is the amalgamation of the Convergencia, which was the remnant of the defunct and discredited Unió Mallorquina, and the Lliga Regionalista. This latter party was formed by Jaume Font, now the president of El Pi, after he left the PP. A reason for him having done so was that he was under investigation by a court (the case was later closed). The PP ethics, newly introduced by José Ramón Bauzá, barred election candidacy to anyone being investigated. Font disagreed with this, but he also disagreed with Bauzá's increasingly anti-Catalan stance prior to the 2011 election.
The PP, under new leader Biel Company, have moderated their views. The party has returned to what it once was in the Balearics: accepting of Catalan and also of regionalism. In this regard, the PP aren't distant from El Pi, which also clings to the sort of soft-nationalism that Maria Munar advocated with the UM. There is more of an issue with the C's.
One has to assume that the gains made by the C's (six or seven seats, according to the poll, compared with the current two) owe at least something to the party's stance on Catalonia and to educational matters in the Balearics. The leader of the C's, Xavier Pericay, has been a constant critic of Catalanism in education and of alleged political indoctrination (in favour of Catalan independence and republicanism) in schools. The PP might be prepared to swallow this, but El Pi might not.
For the parties of the government pact, the poll indicates a best-case scenario of them just crossing the finishing line. They would need the one seat of Gent per Formentera (pretty much assured) in order to get to the thirty majority, but this hardly represents a ringing endorsement of the government. Més and Podemos have both slipped, by a combined six seats at most in the poll. Both have their internal issues and both, so it would seem, are being penalised for a radicalism, the counterpoint to which is the rise of the C's.
PSOE, says the poll, might gain one seat and be bumped up to fifteen, but as with the PP, it is a party that finds itself suffering because of the new politics and the past errors. PSOE would be most unlikely to wish to abandon the so-called "progressive" politics enshrined in its agreements with Més and Podemos, but one still feels that it only has these agreements because it has no other choice.
If the pact parties failed to gain a majority, might El Pi be persuaded to ally with them? One can't rule anything out, but it would be hard to see how such an alliance could ever work. To take but one example, there are holiday rentals. El Pi sees things very differently.
As things stand, it is just possible that the election will lead to a minority government. El Pi would be the kingmaker. All the parties need to be nice to Jaume Font.
Showing posts with label PSOE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PSOE. Show all posts
Monday, January 29, 2018
Friday, December 29, 2017
The Year Before The Election
The worst case for growth of the Balearic economy in 2018 is a mere three per cent. The employers' confederation gives this as its forecast. The government is predicting 3.5%. Conservative is not how one would describe the government; its growth forecasts are invariably higher than those of analysts.
Whatever the actual growth, it will still be comparatively strong. It had always been expected that there would be a slowdown from the height achieved in 2016: 4.1% represented a remarkable recovery from how things had been five years previously when there was zero growth. So, a fall in growth can still be viewed in positive terms.
The current government has ridden the wave of economic good fortune, but the factors that have contributed to this have really had little to do with the government. They have been factors of greatly improved economic circumstance, partly attributable - say it quietly in front of a Balearic minister - to national government policies, austerity and all. But one factor stands out from any other - the contribution of tourism. In the Balearics, this has been magnified compared with much of Spain, but as the National Statistics Institute has revealed, the growth of the tourism economy since the dark days of crisis in 2010 has greatly outstripped the rest of the national economy in real terms.
It can seem perverse that the Balearic government is actively pursuing policies that might jeopardise the growth of the islands' most important sector. We all know why it is engaged in this perversity, and we all know how. Whether a doubling of the tourist tax, the rentals legislation, limits on tourist numbers turn out to harm the economy in 2018, I have my doubts. But there is a risk that there might be some harm, and heading towards the 2019 election, the government could be perceived as having willingly sought to undo the good fortune it had amassed through no real effort on its behalf.
The economy and tourism will, I suspect, be ok next year, but tourism is representative of how, politically, things might just start to unravel next year, especially if there were to be a dip. There are five ministries which in broad terms contribute to Balearic economic and competitive well-being. Tourism (and innovation and research) is one, the others are: education; employment, trade and industry; finance; and transport, energy and land (I exclude agriculture as it is of relatively minor significance).
Of these five ministries, four are controlled by PSOE, the major partner in the government. Més run tourism (and agriculture, for what it's worth). PSOE therefore have their hands on the means of moulding the economy, except tourism. Més were determined to keep their hands on tourism; hence, PSOE have had to accept Bel Busquets. They didn't want to accept her, they might even have preferred one of their own to take over from Biel Barceló. But they had no alternative. They had to accept her. If not, Més might have withdrawn support for the 2018 budget.
The politicking that surrounded Barceló's successor merely served to highlight the weakness of the coalition, and it also served as a foretaste of what could well come in 2018. The parties of government, plus Podemos, will be gearing up for the election. Points of difference will need to be made. They cannot just simply sweep the differences under the consensus and dialogue table. There are votes to be had.
The opposition have suggested that the government might not be able to agree a budget for 2019 for the very reason that the parties will be highlighting their points of difference. The opposition may be right, and for PSOE they will be emphasising their sound management of the four ministries. If the need arises, PSOE can distance themselves from tourism and they will have a readymade excuse: they hadn't wanted Busquets.
If Madrid does finally come up with a satisfactory new financing arrangement for the Balearics next year, then PSOE can take the plaudits: they do, after all, run the finance ministry (and the presidency). This financing deal is of immense importance politically. Secured, and PSOE can milk it electorally for all it's worth. All the consensus stuff can be forgotten, what PSOE will want more than anything is to be able to present the electorate with a very good reason for increasing their share of the vote. What PSOE don't want is to be as beholden to Més (and Podemos) after the election.
For Més, meanwhile, the loss of Barceló is significant. Like him or not, without him in a frontline position, Més are greatly diminished. Podemos will sense a weakness and so will PSOE. Exploiting a weakness while simultaneously boasting strengths could well define at least the latter half of 2018. The opposition isn't that strong - the PP might just decide they need a different leader; the real opposition will be within the government pact.
Whatever the actual growth, it will still be comparatively strong. It had always been expected that there would be a slowdown from the height achieved in 2016: 4.1% represented a remarkable recovery from how things had been five years previously when there was zero growth. So, a fall in growth can still be viewed in positive terms.
The current government has ridden the wave of economic good fortune, but the factors that have contributed to this have really had little to do with the government. They have been factors of greatly improved economic circumstance, partly attributable - say it quietly in front of a Balearic minister - to national government policies, austerity and all. But one factor stands out from any other - the contribution of tourism. In the Balearics, this has been magnified compared with much of Spain, but as the National Statistics Institute has revealed, the growth of the tourism economy since the dark days of crisis in 2010 has greatly outstripped the rest of the national economy in real terms.
It can seem perverse that the Balearic government is actively pursuing policies that might jeopardise the growth of the islands' most important sector. We all know why it is engaged in this perversity, and we all know how. Whether a doubling of the tourist tax, the rentals legislation, limits on tourist numbers turn out to harm the economy in 2018, I have my doubts. But there is a risk that there might be some harm, and heading towards the 2019 election, the government could be perceived as having willingly sought to undo the good fortune it had amassed through no real effort on its behalf.
The economy and tourism will, I suspect, be ok next year, but tourism is representative of how, politically, things might just start to unravel next year, especially if there were to be a dip. There are five ministries which in broad terms contribute to Balearic economic and competitive well-being. Tourism (and innovation and research) is one, the others are: education; employment, trade and industry; finance; and transport, energy and land (I exclude agriculture as it is of relatively minor significance).
Of these five ministries, four are controlled by PSOE, the major partner in the government. Més run tourism (and agriculture, for what it's worth). PSOE therefore have their hands on the means of moulding the economy, except tourism. Més were determined to keep their hands on tourism; hence, PSOE have had to accept Bel Busquets. They didn't want to accept her, they might even have preferred one of their own to take over from Biel Barceló. But they had no alternative. They had to accept her. If not, Més might have withdrawn support for the 2018 budget.
The politicking that surrounded Barceló's successor merely served to highlight the weakness of the coalition, and it also served as a foretaste of what could well come in 2018. The parties of government, plus Podemos, will be gearing up for the election. Points of difference will need to be made. They cannot just simply sweep the differences under the consensus and dialogue table. There are votes to be had.
The opposition have suggested that the government might not be able to agree a budget for 2019 for the very reason that the parties will be highlighting their points of difference. The opposition may be right, and for PSOE they will be emphasising their sound management of the four ministries. If the need arises, PSOE can distance themselves from tourism and they will have a readymade excuse: they hadn't wanted Busquets.
If Madrid does finally come up with a satisfactory new financing arrangement for the Balearics next year, then PSOE can take the plaudits: they do, after all, run the finance ministry (and the presidency). This financing deal is of immense importance politically. Secured, and PSOE can milk it electorally for all it's worth. All the consensus stuff can be forgotten, what PSOE will want more than anything is to be able to present the electorate with a very good reason for increasing their share of the vote. What PSOE don't want is to be as beholden to Més (and Podemos) after the election.
For Més, meanwhile, the loss of Barceló is significant. Like him or not, without him in a frontline position, Més are greatly diminished. Podemos will sense a weakness and so will PSOE. Exploiting a weakness while simultaneously boasting strengths could well define at least the latter half of 2018. The opposition isn't that strong - the PP might just decide they need a different leader; the real opposition will be within the government pact.
Tuesday, August 29, 2017
The Market That Broke The Rentals' Legislation
"We will create a legal framework for tourist rentals in 'plurifamiliar' properties so that, under established conditions, they can be rented." This comes from PSOE's manifesto for the 2015 elections in the Balearics. By plurifamiliar, if you're not familiar, this means apartment buildings.
"We will develop a new tourism law ... that will regulate ... tourist rentals." "We will make tourism a source of shared prosperity to ensure that the majority of the population actively participates in the benefits of tourism." This is from the Més manifesto for the same elections.
When Més referred to regulation of rentals, they meant regulation that was more permissive than allowed under the 2012 tourism law. When they spoke of shared prosperity, they were talking in general terms about a more equitable distribution of wealth but also in more specific terms. One of the party's prominent spokespeople on tourism, Toni Reus, the ex-mayor of Santa Margalida, had referred to the right of individual families to supplement their incomes from the renting of a property.
When Biel Barceló of Més became tourism minister after the elections, it was generally acknowledged that he had inherited a hot potato - holiday rentals. New regulation of rentals, he once said, would be undertaken before a new tourist tax was introduced. This didn't happen. Events conspired to mean that the rentals' regulation came along a year later.
The politics of holiday rentals, broadly shared by PSOE and Més prior to the 2015 elections, were such that the left opposed the Partido Popular's dogmatic stance on apartments. Up until midway through the PP's 2011-2015 administration neither PSOE nor the PSM (the main constituent of Més, of which Barceló is a member) had taken a great deal of interest in holiday rentals. They had been together in government on two occasions - 1999 to 2003 and 2007 to 2011. Holiday rentals had escaped legislative attention.
Although there was an "issue" with the legality of apartment rentals, it was an issue that governments could deal with by making reference to the 1999 law, making the odd threat and basically never doing anything. The issue wasn't worth the renewed legislative hassle. It wasn't that big an issue. The status quo was maintained. Rentals' illegality and legality were allowed to coexist.
In 2012 the PP made a difference. They legislated. Or rather, they reinforced their own 1999 tourism law. It was only after the 2012 act went through that rentals really started to become a "hot potato". Suddenly everyone was talking about rentals and about the tenancy act. The left took up the cause. The PP's law was unfair. It was biased towards the hoteliers and biased against the likes of Toni Reus' families. It was also a potential risk to the islands' tourism.
Over the summer of 2013 there was a great deal of discussion. By August of that summer the tourism minister, Carlos Delgado, was being bombarded with requests and demands to adopt a more permissive approach. PSOE was to the fore in making this bombardment. The PSM weren't far behind, and they were backed by the Chamber of Commerce and various associations, one of which was the restaurants association within the Balearic Confederation of Business Associations. Its president was Pilar Carbonell. She is now the director general of tourism, the choice of Biel Barceló.
The general mantra was that there was a danger in not liberalising the rentals' market. Tourists may well choose to go somewhere else rather than Mallorca and the Balearics. Delgado called a meeting. It had looked as though he might have had a change of mind. He hadn't.
So, when PSOE and Més (with Podemos in the wings) formed the government in spring 2015, rentals' legislation was firmly on the agenda. Both PSOE and Més had it in their manifestos. Neither had given any idea what the legislation might be, but a clue possibly lay with the Catalonia regulations: relatively permissive and capable of bringing in an extra pot of tourist tax revenue.
The government is now being accused, among other things, of kowtowing to the hotels. Més? In the pocket of the hoteliers? Don't be ridiculous. And Pilar Carbonell, a political independent, had constantly been at loggerheads with the Mallorca Hoteliers Federation when she was the restaurants' president, especially because of all-inclusives. As tourism director general, she, like Barceló and like PSOE have had to adapt to an altered situation.
Airbnb was an emerging factor during the time of the PP administration. It then exploded in a way that few could have foreseen. Had it not exploded, it is quite possible that the stock of "illegal" apartments could have been dealt with in a far less complex way than is the case. Who knows, maybe all that had been "illegal" at the time of the election could have been made legal. The fact is that it did explode and has brought with it the various social problems that it has.
Those manifesto pledges haven't been totally broken. It was the Airbnb market that broke what otherwise would have been different legislation.
"We will develop a new tourism law ... that will regulate ... tourist rentals." "We will make tourism a source of shared prosperity to ensure that the majority of the population actively participates in the benefits of tourism." This is from the Més manifesto for the same elections.
When Més referred to regulation of rentals, they meant regulation that was more permissive than allowed under the 2012 tourism law. When they spoke of shared prosperity, they were talking in general terms about a more equitable distribution of wealth but also in more specific terms. One of the party's prominent spokespeople on tourism, Toni Reus, the ex-mayor of Santa Margalida, had referred to the right of individual families to supplement their incomes from the renting of a property.
When Biel Barceló of Més became tourism minister after the elections, it was generally acknowledged that he had inherited a hot potato - holiday rentals. New regulation of rentals, he once said, would be undertaken before a new tourist tax was introduced. This didn't happen. Events conspired to mean that the rentals' regulation came along a year later.
The politics of holiday rentals, broadly shared by PSOE and Més prior to the 2015 elections, were such that the left opposed the Partido Popular's dogmatic stance on apartments. Up until midway through the PP's 2011-2015 administration neither PSOE nor the PSM (the main constituent of Més, of which Barceló is a member) had taken a great deal of interest in holiday rentals. They had been together in government on two occasions - 1999 to 2003 and 2007 to 2011. Holiday rentals had escaped legislative attention.
Although there was an "issue" with the legality of apartment rentals, it was an issue that governments could deal with by making reference to the 1999 law, making the odd threat and basically never doing anything. The issue wasn't worth the renewed legislative hassle. It wasn't that big an issue. The status quo was maintained. Rentals' illegality and legality were allowed to coexist.
In 2012 the PP made a difference. They legislated. Or rather, they reinforced their own 1999 tourism law. It was only after the 2012 act went through that rentals really started to become a "hot potato". Suddenly everyone was talking about rentals and about the tenancy act. The left took up the cause. The PP's law was unfair. It was biased towards the hoteliers and biased against the likes of Toni Reus' families. It was also a potential risk to the islands' tourism.
Over the summer of 2013 there was a great deal of discussion. By August of that summer the tourism minister, Carlos Delgado, was being bombarded with requests and demands to adopt a more permissive approach. PSOE was to the fore in making this bombardment. The PSM weren't far behind, and they were backed by the Chamber of Commerce and various associations, one of which was the restaurants association within the Balearic Confederation of Business Associations. Its president was Pilar Carbonell. She is now the director general of tourism, the choice of Biel Barceló.
The general mantra was that there was a danger in not liberalising the rentals' market. Tourists may well choose to go somewhere else rather than Mallorca and the Balearics. Delgado called a meeting. It had looked as though he might have had a change of mind. He hadn't.
So, when PSOE and Més (with Podemos in the wings) formed the government in spring 2015, rentals' legislation was firmly on the agenda. Both PSOE and Més had it in their manifestos. Neither had given any idea what the legislation might be, but a clue possibly lay with the Catalonia regulations: relatively permissive and capable of bringing in an extra pot of tourist tax revenue.
The government is now being accused, among other things, of kowtowing to the hotels. Més? In the pocket of the hoteliers? Don't be ridiculous. And Pilar Carbonell, a political independent, had constantly been at loggerheads with the Mallorca Hoteliers Federation when she was the restaurants' president, especially because of all-inclusives. As tourism director general, she, like Barceló and like PSOE have had to adapt to an altered situation.
Airbnb was an emerging factor during the time of the PP administration. It then exploded in a way that few could have foreseen. Had it not exploded, it is quite possible that the stock of "illegal" apartments could have been dealt with in a far less complex way than is the case. Who knows, maybe all that had been "illegal" at the time of the election could have been made legal. The fact is that it did explode and has brought with it the various social problems that it has.
Those manifesto pledges haven't been totally broken. It was the Airbnb market that broke what otherwise would have been different legislation.
Monday, July 17, 2017
Snow White And The Seven PSOE Dwarfs
"Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the most morally superior of them all?" The mirror answered, as mirrors do: "you are, oh Queen of Podemos". With this, Her Royal Bootness, Laura Camargo, cackled as she returned to her plans, plotting governmental domination of Snow White, the sweet and friendly Francina. Meanwhile, the Queen's not entirely faithful Humbert, Alberto Jarabo, was seeking to make amends for not having metaphorically killed Snow White. Podemos will be inside the government come October, he announced to the dwarfs of PSOE. And the tourist tax will be doubled, he shouted. The dwarfs nodded in humble obedience. He stopped short, for now, in cancelling Christmas, though this could be a demand for passing next year's budget, as is the 100% increase to the tourist tax and the elimination of the 50% discount that currently exists for April (and possibly also March).
Snow White and the PSOE dwarfs were preparing to go to their tiny cottage for the party's congress. Snow White told the dwarfs to be less subservient to the Queen. Podemos claim moral superiority, yet this is an expression of populism, she opined. The Queen and Humbert, to say nothing of the Lords of Podemos in Madrid, can engage in "bad practice" and brush it off as forgivable because they believe they are morally superior. PSOE will not bow to such populism, she made clear. PSOE will fight corruption transparently and PSOE will demonstrate that the party will do what it says it will do. The dwarfs all cheered, albeit they weren't entirely sure what she was talking about. There again, very few people are.
At the cottage, the idea will be to plan their own dominance, but the dwarfs were shuffling nervously, looking at their tiny shoes. "Who'll be sleeping in our beds," they asked, mangling their fairy tales. "We'll still have to get into bed with the Queen," one horrified dwarf maintained. "Err. Yucky," the other dwarfs chimed. Snow White replied: "Never fear, for I will one day consult the mirror in strict accordance with the principles of consensus and dialogue. I shall be the most morally superior of them all."
With this, the dwarfs uttered a collective hoorah, still not totally convinced that they had a clue what she was going on about. But it sounded good, and there was more heartening news for them. Snow White explained that a handsome prince is travelling through the lands. His name is Pedro. He will fall in love with Snow White's plans for progressive politics of the left, predicated on pacts and a system of federalism. The dwarfs were now becoming ecstatic, but one noted that this will still mean having to give bed room to the Queen. "Don't we want to govern on our own?" At this, Snow White's sweet and friendly face turned sour. For as and when she looks in the mirror, she knew that she will only see the image of the Queen staring back at her.
Snow White and the PSOE dwarfs were preparing to go to their tiny cottage for the party's congress. Snow White told the dwarfs to be less subservient to the Queen. Podemos claim moral superiority, yet this is an expression of populism, she opined. The Queen and Humbert, to say nothing of the Lords of Podemos in Madrid, can engage in "bad practice" and brush it off as forgivable because they believe they are morally superior. PSOE will not bow to such populism, she made clear. PSOE will fight corruption transparently and PSOE will demonstrate that the party will do what it says it will do. The dwarfs all cheered, albeit they weren't entirely sure what she was talking about. There again, very few people are.
At the cottage, the idea will be to plan their own dominance, but the dwarfs were shuffling nervously, looking at their tiny shoes. "Who'll be sleeping in our beds," they asked, mangling their fairy tales. "We'll still have to get into bed with the Queen," one horrified dwarf maintained. "Err. Yucky," the other dwarfs chimed. Snow White replied: "Never fear, for I will one day consult the mirror in strict accordance with the principles of consensus and dialogue. I shall be the most morally superior of them all."
With this, the dwarfs uttered a collective hoorah, still not totally convinced that they had a clue what she was going on about. But it sounded good, and there was more heartening news for them. Snow White explained that a handsome prince is travelling through the lands. His name is Pedro. He will fall in love with Snow White's plans for progressive politics of the left, predicated on pacts and a system of federalism. The dwarfs were now becoming ecstatic, but one noted that this will still mean having to give bed room to the Queen. "Don't we want to govern on our own?" At this, Snow White's sweet and friendly face turned sour. For as and when she looks in the mirror, she knew that she will only see the image of the Queen staring back at her.
Thursday, July 13, 2017
The Podemos Influence On Tourism Policy
Podemos have been threatening to scupper the government's holiday rentals' legislation. They have engaged in brinkmanship grandstanding in the past, as with the tourist tax law, and so have earned the criticism of the Partido Popular for "crying wolf" because they don't see their threats through. Things are unlikely to be any different this time.
The reasons for this latest bout of messing with the PSOE (PSIB) and Més government are twofold. Podemos insist that the government doesn't appreciate the scale of the problems with finding residential accommodation and that the legislation doesn't do anything to bring down the cost of renting or indeed purchasing. Nor does the law guarantee a right to housing. The second reason is that Podemos are demanding that the law includes a declaration of a housing emergency in Palma and Ibiza. This would entail the total prohibition of holiday rentals.
From a legislative point of view, Podemos are blurring two strands - one has to do with holiday rentals, the other with housing. There are two separate pieces of legislation going before the Balearic parliament. In essence, what Podemos would like is a unified bill, but this won't happen, much though - and Podemos would be right in this regard - the two strands are clearly linked. The government, meantime, justifiably argues that there would be encroachment into powers of town halls and island councils. Were there to be, then the legislation could end up becoming mired in the courts. It might do anyway, but for other reasons.
In fact, both Palma town hall and the Council of Ibiza have indicated they will use provisions in the new bill to severely restrict rentals. A specific declaration regarding emergency housing wouldn't therefore be necessary.
Previous experience suggests that when push comes to shove and votes are finally cast, Podemos will allow the legislation to go through. Although Podemos have been engaged in their usual last-minute attempts at horse-trading, the bill will surely be approved. Different alterations to the legislation should enable this. One is to increase the fine on websites like Airbnb for publicising unlicensed properties to 400,000 euros. Another is to give owners the chance of offsetting fines of up to 40,000 euros by providing so-called social rental.
The approval on Tuesday, assuming it does indeed go through, will be three days before PSOE (PSIB) convene for their congress. As mentioned in a previous article, this congress will be crucial for the party in mapping out its strategy leading up to the 2019 election. Central to this strategy will be issues related to tourism.
For Francina Armengol to secure a second term as president, a new "pact" will have to be arrived at. This is a cold fact for PSOE, as it is never in a position to get close to a majority: the Partido Popular is far too strong for this to ever happen. The congress will therefore have to take into account what the relationship with other parties might look like, with the Podemos relationship key to Armengol's ability to continue as president.
The PP could return with a majority, as it has in the past, but this is by no means certain. For all the at-times chaotic appearance of the current government, it has nevertheless presided over a period of improved economic conditions. The PP will attack it on jobs and on pay, but the electorate are unlikely to be convinced that the PP would do any better. In this respect, Armengol will be hoping that next year's wage negotiations and settlement for the hotel and hospitality sector bring about improved terms. Just as important, as mentioned before, will be any agreement on a special economic regime for the Balearics. A good one, and the PP will find it that much tougher to win.
The nature of the current pact or of a future one will, nevertheless, be an ingredient for the electorate to consider. When it comes to tourism policy, the tourist tax won't -as it stands - be a factor. In 2003, when the PP came back to power, it was an issue, as the electorate were concerned by an impact on tourism. Circumstances are quite different now. A Podemos demand for a doubling in the rate of the tax - a stipulation made for the party approving next year's budget - might be something for the public to baulk at. Or it might not be, given the "saturation" narrative.
Podemos do have the power to influence policy, and this can be seen in what the congress will consider in respect of limits on the number of tourists. PSOE, it is understood, is to change its tune. The congress will consider a limit on summer tourism numbers. A "battery" of proposals are to be presented in order to achieve a limit. The tourist tax is likely to be one of them. A doubling, and Podemos will take the credit.
The reasons for this latest bout of messing with the PSOE (PSIB) and Més government are twofold. Podemos insist that the government doesn't appreciate the scale of the problems with finding residential accommodation and that the legislation doesn't do anything to bring down the cost of renting or indeed purchasing. Nor does the law guarantee a right to housing. The second reason is that Podemos are demanding that the law includes a declaration of a housing emergency in Palma and Ibiza. This would entail the total prohibition of holiday rentals.
From a legislative point of view, Podemos are blurring two strands - one has to do with holiday rentals, the other with housing. There are two separate pieces of legislation going before the Balearic parliament. In essence, what Podemos would like is a unified bill, but this won't happen, much though - and Podemos would be right in this regard - the two strands are clearly linked. The government, meantime, justifiably argues that there would be encroachment into powers of town halls and island councils. Were there to be, then the legislation could end up becoming mired in the courts. It might do anyway, but for other reasons.
In fact, both Palma town hall and the Council of Ibiza have indicated they will use provisions in the new bill to severely restrict rentals. A specific declaration regarding emergency housing wouldn't therefore be necessary.
Previous experience suggests that when push comes to shove and votes are finally cast, Podemos will allow the legislation to go through. Although Podemos have been engaged in their usual last-minute attempts at horse-trading, the bill will surely be approved. Different alterations to the legislation should enable this. One is to increase the fine on websites like Airbnb for publicising unlicensed properties to 400,000 euros. Another is to give owners the chance of offsetting fines of up to 40,000 euros by providing so-called social rental.
The approval on Tuesday, assuming it does indeed go through, will be three days before PSOE (PSIB) convene for their congress. As mentioned in a previous article, this congress will be crucial for the party in mapping out its strategy leading up to the 2019 election. Central to this strategy will be issues related to tourism.
For Francina Armengol to secure a second term as president, a new "pact" will have to be arrived at. This is a cold fact for PSOE, as it is never in a position to get close to a majority: the Partido Popular is far too strong for this to ever happen. The congress will therefore have to take into account what the relationship with other parties might look like, with the Podemos relationship key to Armengol's ability to continue as president.
The PP could return with a majority, as it has in the past, but this is by no means certain. For all the at-times chaotic appearance of the current government, it has nevertheless presided over a period of improved economic conditions. The PP will attack it on jobs and on pay, but the electorate are unlikely to be convinced that the PP would do any better. In this respect, Armengol will be hoping that next year's wage negotiations and settlement for the hotel and hospitality sector bring about improved terms. Just as important, as mentioned before, will be any agreement on a special economic regime for the Balearics. A good one, and the PP will find it that much tougher to win.
The nature of the current pact or of a future one will, nevertheless, be an ingredient for the electorate to consider. When it comes to tourism policy, the tourist tax won't -as it stands - be a factor. In 2003, when the PP came back to power, it was an issue, as the electorate were concerned by an impact on tourism. Circumstances are quite different now. A Podemos demand for a doubling in the rate of the tax - a stipulation made for the party approving next year's budget - might be something for the public to baulk at. Or it might not be, given the "saturation" narrative.
Podemos do have the power to influence policy, and this can be seen in what the congress will consider in respect of limits on the number of tourists. PSOE, it is understood, is to change its tune. The congress will consider a limit on summer tourism numbers. A "battery" of proposals are to be presented in order to achieve a limit. The tourist tax is likely to be one of them. A doubling, and Podemos will take the credit.
Monday, July 10, 2017
PSOE In The Balearics Preparing For Election
PSOE, otherwise known as PSIB, will be holding their regional congress at the end of next week. Francina Armengol is assured of warm rounds of applause, having already secured her re-election as party general secretary. Four more years, they may well chant, this being how long she has been re-elected for. In under two years time, others (i.e. the electorate) will be invited to grant her four more years as president.
Not that it will be simple for her. The history of PSOE (PSIB) presidents of the Balearics - there have only been two of them, Armengol and Antich - demonstrates that pacts are necessary. For all her unconvincing words about the "progressive" pact of the left, the involvement of Podemos is as capable of arousing suspicions as used to be the case with the Unió Mallorquina. Podemos may be of the left (which the UM were not), but the pact has been no easier than when Maria Munar effectively called the Antich shots before the UM were finally destroyed by the anti-corruption prosecution service.
Past the halfway mark of the administration, Armengol now has to plot the route to the 2019 election. History tells us that she won't have to concern herself with a new or reconfirmed pact, because the Partido Popular will win; as it did in 2003 and 2011 after the two Antich administrations. However, it is not yet obvious that history will repeat itself. The PP has a new leader, Biel Company. More in tune with the PP of the old Balearic school, meaning that he is not a rabid anti-Catalanist in the style of José Ramón Bauzá, Company presents a more acceptable PP face. But under two years away from the election, it is by no means certain that he will secure the mandate.
Company and the PP find themselves in an awkward situation. The PP have backed the calls for a revised economic regime for the Balearics, and the national party - in the form of the Spanish government - appears willing to finally make this a reality. The ink won't be dry on any agreement until some time next year, but if it represents a favourable outcome, then the Rajoy government may well deal a blow to Company.
Doubtless aware of this possibility, the deputy prime minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaria, is crafting a higher profile for the government's delegate in the Balearics, Maria Salom. The PP's one-time Council of Mallorca president, Salom is to effectively be "relaunched", as is the delegation. What this means is that the national party wants to impress upon the Balearic public the key roles played by Salom and by Madrid in Balearic affairs. Consequently, as and when a new economic regime is confirmed, the spin machine will seek to ensure that it is Madrid which is seen to be delivering largesse. It will be the national government (i.e. the PP) which makes lives of Balearic citizens better and not Armengol and her regional government.
The problem for Rajoy, Sáenz de Santamaria and Salom (and also Company) is that the electorate might not buy the spin. The economic regime is fundamental to the next election. It's highly doubtful that Madrid will grant the Balearics all the items on the shopping list, but some key ones may be forthcoming. If the financing system were to be overhauled and the Balearics were able to keep more income tax and IVA (VAT) revenue than the islands currently give away, this alone would represent a massive result for Armengol. However, delivering a reformed financing system requires - as Rajoy has pointed out - an accord among regional presidents. Given that many regions benefit from Balearic tax revenue, they will be loathe to accede to Balearic demands.
Nevertheless, it would seem that some new and more beneficial arrangement will be hammered out next year. And lurking in the background is what Congress might have in store. With Pedro Sánchez restored to PSOE's national leadership and with the Rajoy administration on shaky ground, there may yet be a drive towards a provisional form of federalism, which is what Armengol has been advocating. One says provisional because federalism couldn't be rushed, but the principle would mean a different approach to tax revenue and regional powers.
More immediate than any reconstitution of the regional relationship with the state would be the nitty-gritty of the new economic regime. The Balearics have a justifiable, even moral claim for a system to compensate for insularity. Madrid does now appear to accept the argument, but for Armengol and PSIB there is greater urgency in mapping out the path to 2019. The party won't win on its own, which raises the issue of a future pact and therefore dealings with Podemos in particular. And already there are signs of shifts in policy, e.g. on tourism, that bear something of the Podemos mark. These shifts will be on the agenda at the congress, and I'll consider them in a following article.
Not that it will be simple for her. The history of PSOE (PSIB) presidents of the Balearics - there have only been two of them, Armengol and Antich - demonstrates that pacts are necessary. For all her unconvincing words about the "progressive" pact of the left, the involvement of Podemos is as capable of arousing suspicions as used to be the case with the Unió Mallorquina. Podemos may be of the left (which the UM were not), but the pact has been no easier than when Maria Munar effectively called the Antich shots before the UM were finally destroyed by the anti-corruption prosecution service.
Past the halfway mark of the administration, Armengol now has to plot the route to the 2019 election. History tells us that she won't have to concern herself with a new or reconfirmed pact, because the Partido Popular will win; as it did in 2003 and 2011 after the two Antich administrations. However, it is not yet obvious that history will repeat itself. The PP has a new leader, Biel Company. More in tune with the PP of the old Balearic school, meaning that he is not a rabid anti-Catalanist in the style of José Ramón Bauzá, Company presents a more acceptable PP face. But under two years away from the election, it is by no means certain that he will secure the mandate.
Company and the PP find themselves in an awkward situation. The PP have backed the calls for a revised economic regime for the Balearics, and the national party - in the form of the Spanish government - appears willing to finally make this a reality. The ink won't be dry on any agreement until some time next year, but if it represents a favourable outcome, then the Rajoy government may well deal a blow to Company.
Doubtless aware of this possibility, the deputy prime minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaria, is crafting a higher profile for the government's delegate in the Balearics, Maria Salom. The PP's one-time Council of Mallorca president, Salom is to effectively be "relaunched", as is the delegation. What this means is that the national party wants to impress upon the Balearic public the key roles played by Salom and by Madrid in Balearic affairs. Consequently, as and when a new economic regime is confirmed, the spin machine will seek to ensure that it is Madrid which is seen to be delivering largesse. It will be the national government (i.e. the PP) which makes lives of Balearic citizens better and not Armengol and her regional government.
The problem for Rajoy, Sáenz de Santamaria and Salom (and also Company) is that the electorate might not buy the spin. The economic regime is fundamental to the next election. It's highly doubtful that Madrid will grant the Balearics all the items on the shopping list, but some key ones may be forthcoming. If the financing system were to be overhauled and the Balearics were able to keep more income tax and IVA (VAT) revenue than the islands currently give away, this alone would represent a massive result for Armengol. However, delivering a reformed financing system requires - as Rajoy has pointed out - an accord among regional presidents. Given that many regions benefit from Balearic tax revenue, they will be loathe to accede to Balearic demands.
Nevertheless, it would seem that some new and more beneficial arrangement will be hammered out next year. And lurking in the background is what Congress might have in store. With Pedro Sánchez restored to PSOE's national leadership and with the Rajoy administration on shaky ground, there may yet be a drive towards a provisional form of federalism, which is what Armengol has been advocating. One says provisional because federalism couldn't be rushed, but the principle would mean a different approach to tax revenue and regional powers.
More immediate than any reconstitution of the regional relationship with the state would be the nitty-gritty of the new economic regime. The Balearics have a justifiable, even moral claim for a system to compensate for insularity. Madrid does now appear to accept the argument, but for Armengol and PSIB there is greater urgency in mapping out the path to 2019. The party won't win on its own, which raises the issue of a future pact and therefore dealings with Podemos in particular. And already there are signs of shifts in policy, e.g. on tourism, that bear something of the Podemos mark. These shifts will be on the agenda at the congress, and I'll consider them in a following article.
Wednesday, May 24, 2017
All At Sea: PSOE
So, 231 days after resigning as the general secretary of the party, Pedro Sánchez swept back to power with a landslide victory. He is PSOE's Theresa May (as will no doubt be), though whether he proves to be anything more than a Corbyn will be discovered. One thing is for sure - possibly, perhaps even probably - is that Pedro will take a Jezza jump to the left. That's why he was elected. Wasn't it?
Actually, it wasn't as much of a landslide as Thezza can anticipate in Referendum Mark II, but land slid sufficiently from beneath Susana Díaz that she was hurled backwards from Madrid all the way to her Andalusian homeland and landed with a bump, together with the bruising of only having gained 39.94% of the vote (pity about the 0.6%; round numbers are so much more satisfying).
Pedro won the day with 50.21%. The other candidate, Patxi López, came nowhere, except in his native Basque Country. Once the recipient of the dubious backing of Francina Armengol, even that evaporated as the Balearic president sensed the direction in which the tide was flowing. It was dragging Patxi well offshore. He duly drowned in the depths of the more than 133,000 combined votes for Pedro and Susana. His own tally? 14,571, most of them marked Basque.
An odd thing to note is that Pedro won in every region of Spain except for two - Susana's Andalusia and Patxi's Basque Country. It is odd insofar as Susana got as close as she did: some 15,000 votes fewer. It is less odd when you appreciate that PSOE militants are heavily weighted way down south. Andalusia is socialist land and always has been since democracy arrived in Spain.
One needs to explain that the militants are not necessarily militants of a Derek Hatton type. It's the word the Spanish use for members. And it is, I would suggest, important to understand that, of the nearly 75,000 who voted for Pedro, only a certain (and small) percentage might truly fall into the category of rabid left-wingers. Yes, there was discontent with the cosying up to the Partido Popular, i.e having enabled Rajoy's last-minute investiture in October, but that doesn't mean that all those thousands are like-minded descendants of the nineteenth-century founder of PSOE, the original Pablo Iglesias. The current-day Pablo Iglesias of Podemos might be considered a more appropriate descendant.
It is true that the rank and file felt that they had been sold out. Sánchez got a drubbing at the federal committee and had no option but to stand down. The issue was whether or not to break the electoral impasse and facilitate Rajoy's passage back to the premiership. Sánchez lost. The militants have now had their revenge. Moreover, they have ensured that they will not be delivered into the hands of Diazistas and the Andalusian socialist mafia.
She had former premiers on her side, but the support of González and Zapatero counted for too little in the face of that discontent. For many, once a socialist (even a moderate one), always a socialist: deals with the PP don't comply with this legacy. And deals with Díaz don't comply with how many of the militants feel. Take those in Catalonia, for instance. Recently, I wrote about the longstanding animosity between the two regions (which owes only something to politics). It was there for all to see in the Catalonia vote: 82% for Sánchez, 11% for Díaz. Crushing, one might say.
For Francina in the Balearics, having thrown Patxi overboard and clambered on board the good ship Pedro, 71% of the Balearic vote in his favour will enable her to express solidarity with the militant citizenship of Balearic PSOE. Her good judgement (opportunism) in abandoning Patxi might yet lead her to national government. In her dreams. But with Pedro's win, we return to the uncharted territory in which Spain has been adrift since the end of 2015 and the first of the inconclusive elections. Is another election looming?
Podemos, i.e. Pablo Iglesias, would prefer that there wasn't an election. Preparing to present a vote of no confidence in Rajoy, Iglesias is also preparing to ask Congress that he should be invested as prime minister. He really knows how to stir the pot and how also to try and grasp power at a time when electorally Podemos appear to have plateaued and may only have one future way to go. Sánchez will be cajoled by the likes of Francina into a pact for "progressive" government, citing how good the relationship with Podemos in the Balearics has been. At which point, any sensible observer will burst out laughing.
Pedro, though, will not himself be laughing. He was unpersuaded by Iglesias before. Why should he be any different now, especially if a grasp on the premiership were to be denied him? The good ship Pedro has set sail again, but PSOE remain all at sea.
Actually, it wasn't as much of a landslide as Thezza can anticipate in Referendum Mark II, but land slid sufficiently from beneath Susana Díaz that she was hurled backwards from Madrid all the way to her Andalusian homeland and landed with a bump, together with the bruising of only having gained 39.94% of the vote (pity about the 0.6%; round numbers are so much more satisfying).
Pedro won the day with 50.21%. The other candidate, Patxi López, came nowhere, except in his native Basque Country. Once the recipient of the dubious backing of Francina Armengol, even that evaporated as the Balearic president sensed the direction in which the tide was flowing. It was dragging Patxi well offshore. He duly drowned in the depths of the more than 133,000 combined votes for Pedro and Susana. His own tally? 14,571, most of them marked Basque.
An odd thing to note is that Pedro won in every region of Spain except for two - Susana's Andalusia and Patxi's Basque Country. It is odd insofar as Susana got as close as she did: some 15,000 votes fewer. It is less odd when you appreciate that PSOE militants are heavily weighted way down south. Andalusia is socialist land and always has been since democracy arrived in Spain.
One needs to explain that the militants are not necessarily militants of a Derek Hatton type. It's the word the Spanish use for members. And it is, I would suggest, important to understand that, of the nearly 75,000 who voted for Pedro, only a certain (and small) percentage might truly fall into the category of rabid left-wingers. Yes, there was discontent with the cosying up to the Partido Popular, i.e having enabled Rajoy's last-minute investiture in October, but that doesn't mean that all those thousands are like-minded descendants of the nineteenth-century founder of PSOE, the original Pablo Iglesias. The current-day Pablo Iglesias of Podemos might be considered a more appropriate descendant.
It is true that the rank and file felt that they had been sold out. Sánchez got a drubbing at the federal committee and had no option but to stand down. The issue was whether or not to break the electoral impasse and facilitate Rajoy's passage back to the premiership. Sánchez lost. The militants have now had their revenge. Moreover, they have ensured that they will not be delivered into the hands of Diazistas and the Andalusian socialist mafia.
She had former premiers on her side, but the support of González and Zapatero counted for too little in the face of that discontent. For many, once a socialist (even a moderate one), always a socialist: deals with the PP don't comply with this legacy. And deals with Díaz don't comply with how many of the militants feel. Take those in Catalonia, for instance. Recently, I wrote about the longstanding animosity between the two regions (which owes only something to politics). It was there for all to see in the Catalonia vote: 82% for Sánchez, 11% for Díaz. Crushing, one might say.
For Francina in the Balearics, having thrown Patxi overboard and clambered on board the good ship Pedro, 71% of the Balearic vote in his favour will enable her to express solidarity with the militant citizenship of Balearic PSOE. Her good judgement (opportunism) in abandoning Patxi might yet lead her to national government. In her dreams. But with Pedro's win, we return to the uncharted territory in which Spain has been adrift since the end of 2015 and the first of the inconclusive elections. Is another election looming?
Podemos, i.e. Pablo Iglesias, would prefer that there wasn't an election. Preparing to present a vote of no confidence in Rajoy, Iglesias is also preparing to ask Congress that he should be invested as prime minister. He really knows how to stir the pot and how also to try and grasp power at a time when electorally Podemos appear to have plateaued and may only have one future way to go. Sánchez will be cajoled by the likes of Francina into a pact for "progressive" government, citing how good the relationship with Podemos in the Balearics has been. At which point, any sensible observer will burst out laughing.
Pedro, though, will not himself be laughing. He was unpersuaded by Iglesias before. Why should he be any different now, especially if a grasp on the premiership were to be denied him? The good ship Pedro has set sail again, but PSOE remain all at sea.
Monday, January 23, 2017
Xe-Lo Likes Mick
Xe-Lo and her new best friend, Mick Vidal of the PP, were all smiles. Together they had placed an obstacle in the path of the coup attempt. Xe-Lo was not for leaving, other than to walk out of parliament with Mick, if not quite in hand in hand but with her reaching for a fag, as she had so unflatteringly been seen to do when her and Mick's courtship was starting a few weeks ago.
It turned out that parliament's lawyer had produced a document requiring Xe-Lo's instant dismissal. Xe-Lo hadn't seen this and nor had Mick. Right, they said, we're off, and they were, leaving the self-proclaimed Father of the House, PSOE's Vicenç Thomas, to do some explaining. Vicenç, first vice-president of parliament (there always have to be at least two VPs for pretty much anything), had taken over the meeting because Xe-Lo, reasonably enough, said she couldn't chair it given that her job was on the line. Out came the document, one with which Vicenç had believed that the blow could be struck. Alas no, where Vicenç was concerned. At least for now. He rather fancies Xe-Lo's job, allegedly.
What were the PP playing at, the "pact" demanded to know. It was obvious what they were playing at - causing mischief. Pact-ites railed against PP irresponsibility, while the PP were rolling around the floor with laughter. The greatest institutional crisis in the history of the Balearic parliament, the pact said, and the PP were to blame. Which wasn't strictly accurate. The crisis has all been of Podemos's making.
The crisis is such that a not unreasonable question was there to be asked about this document. Who had instructed the lawyer? As Xe-Lo was (still is) president, does she not get involved in such a matter? There again, she was unlikely to go all turkey and Christmas and tell the lawyer to order her dismissal.
Given that no one has a clue what's going on at present, the race to be Xe-Lo's successor was shunted into the background. And Podemos discovered, to their horror, that one of the runners and riders - the preferred one on account of her being a member of the sisterhood - was herself being shunted into the parliament presidential sidings. Marta Maicas had been cited by a judge in respect of Montse Seijas's "denuncia" for the digital signature falsification business. If not Marta, that leaves Podemos with only the Balti man, Picornell, as a front runner.
Neither Marta nor Balti curry a great deal of favour with certain pact-ites (especially PSOE). They are looked upon as being, well, too "shouty". Parliament and Podemos may live to regret the Xe-Lo crisis, given that all parties believed she was in fact rather good at her job, when not, for instance, being on holiday in Rome. PSOE would like the Father of the House to be officially anointed as daddy. And Vicenç wouldn't say no. The greater crisis would then ensue. Podemos would lose their one real hold on power not just in the Balearics but in any Spanish region. The pact would be subject to even greater pressure than it already is.
Meanwhile, the Podemos sisterhood credentials were in fact taking a further hammering. In addition to the alleged "blackmailing" of Carmen Azpelicueta - "be a good girl, and we'll look for a job for you" - it now seems that when a woman was being interviewed for a post as an adviser at the Council of Mallorca, she was asked if she has plans to get pregnant. That is a question that cannot be asked.
It turned out that parliament's lawyer had produced a document requiring Xe-Lo's instant dismissal. Xe-Lo hadn't seen this and nor had Mick. Right, they said, we're off, and they were, leaving the self-proclaimed Father of the House, PSOE's Vicenç Thomas, to do some explaining. Vicenç, first vice-president of parliament (there always have to be at least two VPs for pretty much anything), had taken over the meeting because Xe-Lo, reasonably enough, said she couldn't chair it given that her job was on the line. Out came the document, one with which Vicenç had believed that the blow could be struck. Alas no, where Vicenç was concerned. At least for now. He rather fancies Xe-Lo's job, allegedly.
What were the PP playing at, the "pact" demanded to know. It was obvious what they were playing at - causing mischief. Pact-ites railed against PP irresponsibility, while the PP were rolling around the floor with laughter. The greatest institutional crisis in the history of the Balearic parliament, the pact said, and the PP were to blame. Which wasn't strictly accurate. The crisis has all been of Podemos's making.
The crisis is such that a not unreasonable question was there to be asked about this document. Who had instructed the lawyer? As Xe-Lo was (still is) president, does she not get involved in such a matter? There again, she was unlikely to go all turkey and Christmas and tell the lawyer to order her dismissal.
Given that no one has a clue what's going on at present, the race to be Xe-Lo's successor was shunted into the background. And Podemos discovered, to their horror, that one of the runners and riders - the preferred one on account of her being a member of the sisterhood - was herself being shunted into the parliament presidential sidings. Marta Maicas had been cited by a judge in respect of Montse Seijas's "denuncia" for the digital signature falsification business. If not Marta, that leaves Podemos with only the Balti man, Picornell, as a front runner.
Neither Marta nor Balti curry a great deal of favour with certain pact-ites (especially PSOE). They are looked upon as being, well, too "shouty". Parliament and Podemos may live to regret the Xe-Lo crisis, given that all parties believed she was in fact rather good at her job, when not, for instance, being on holiday in Rome. PSOE would like the Father of the House to be officially anointed as daddy. And Vicenç wouldn't say no. The greater crisis would then ensue. Podemos would lose their one real hold on power not just in the Balearics but in any Spanish region. The pact would be subject to even greater pressure than it already is.
Meanwhile, the Podemos sisterhood credentials were in fact taking a further hammering. In addition to the alleged "blackmailing" of Carmen Azpelicueta - "be a good girl, and we'll look for a job for you" - it now seems that when a woman was being interviewed for a post as an adviser at the Council of Mallorca, she was asked if she has plans to get pregnant. That is a question that cannot be asked.
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
Rajoy: Close But No Cigar?
Mariano Rajoy will have been puffing on his New Year's havana with a degree of contentment. Back where he clearly believes he belongs - in perpetuity it can seem - the occupant of the Moncloa can blow calm smoke rings with the satisfaction of knowing that for all the trials of last year (and not just those to do with political uncertainty), no rival is hovering to dispossess him, while the poll rating continues to edge further upwards.
There was, however, an unwelcome piece of news to disturb him over Christmas. He received a phone call from Tony's little friend (the Tony being Blair and the friendship dating back to the Iraq War). The permanently jet-black-haired José María Aznar phoned Rajoy to tell him that he was relinquishing his post as honorary president of the Partido Popular. He will now only be like any other member of the party. Not that he can ever be that; he remains in the PP undergrowth, a diminutively towering presence, prepared at any moment to spring out and spray dye in casting doubts on the Rajoy way forward.
Aznar and Rajoy were once good friends. Wikileaks, though, showed that Aznar was not entirely convinced about Rajoy. This lack of conviction would seem to have lessened still over the years. The phone call would have come as a surprise. They have barely been on speaking terms. The PP hierarchy as a whole was surprised, but for a different reason. Aznar's decision hadn't been expected. But now that it has been delivered, Aznar and his foundation, which formally split from the PP in October, can act independently: a thorn in Rajoy's side, if Aznar so chooses.
Former and defeated leaders in Spain don't do the honourable thing and disappear. Felipe González was hardly a neutral figure in the moves which led to the purging of Pedro Sánchez as PSOE leader. Likewise, Aznar is there, forever lingering and lurking, his discontent with Rajoy seemingly more personal than based on pure politics or policies.
The breach might therefore not augur well for Rajoy, who has discovered - to everyone's lesser surprise than the Aznar manoeuvre - that PSOE is unwilling to give him a clear run with the 2017 budget. In fact, it is placing an enormous obstacle in the way and seems likely to present an amendment to the entire budget. Ultimately, this could mean yet another election.
So Rajoy may instead have been spluttering as he drew on his havana. If PSOE, emboldened despite its enfeebled state by having granted Rajoy licence to stay on as premier, now chooses to exploit this magnanimity and challenge the budget to the point of mortality, it will be a case of close but no cigar for the latest Rajoy project.
However, there is what the public thinks, and it is this which can allow Rajoy his moments of tranquil puffing. The latest poll by Sigma Dos for "El Mundo" shows the PP to still be in the ascendant. The rating, compared with the June election, has increased by 1.8% to 34.8%. It remains a distance away from what it was when Rajoy won in 2011, but the momentum upwards is not being interrupted.
As much as Rajoy can be satisfied with this rise, he can also take note of PSOE's further decline with satisfaction. The poll reveals a 3.3% drop since June: now only 19.4%, and Unidos Podemos, despite seemingly intent on splitting themselves asunder (the Podemos element, that is), have experienced their own increase to 22.5%. The poll's finding therefore makes the words of PSOE's Mario Jiménez sound foolhardy. He has been the one saying that the party will place the budget amendment. He has also said that if Rajoy does choose to call an election, he will "not catch PSOE off-guard". He might not, but PSOE being on-guard holds absolutely no guarantee of an improved electoral performance: quite the contrary in fact.
Then there is the Podemos question. Around the same time as the PP holds its congress next month (Aznar will not be attending), Podemos have theirs. The war between the Iglesias and Errejón factions will probably end in defeat for Errejón. Even if it were the other way (and Iglesias has said he will step down, if this is the result), what will happen? It's possible that nothing will, but the battle lines are entrenched. If Podemos were to split, then the left as a whole in Spain will be split more than it already is. This would only bolster Rajoy further, he - and the PP's poll rating - having gained as a result of the long hiatus before the October investiture; this hiatus having been partly the consequence of the left's inability to arrive at anything approaching consensus.
Aznar is an irritation. The budget issue is more of an aggravation. But even another election would see Rajoy secure. There's no one challenging him.
There was, however, an unwelcome piece of news to disturb him over Christmas. He received a phone call from Tony's little friend (the Tony being Blair and the friendship dating back to the Iraq War). The permanently jet-black-haired José María Aznar phoned Rajoy to tell him that he was relinquishing his post as honorary president of the Partido Popular. He will now only be like any other member of the party. Not that he can ever be that; he remains in the PP undergrowth, a diminutively towering presence, prepared at any moment to spring out and spray dye in casting doubts on the Rajoy way forward.
Aznar and Rajoy were once good friends. Wikileaks, though, showed that Aznar was not entirely convinced about Rajoy. This lack of conviction would seem to have lessened still over the years. The phone call would have come as a surprise. They have barely been on speaking terms. The PP hierarchy as a whole was surprised, but for a different reason. Aznar's decision hadn't been expected. But now that it has been delivered, Aznar and his foundation, which formally split from the PP in October, can act independently: a thorn in Rajoy's side, if Aznar so chooses.
Former and defeated leaders in Spain don't do the honourable thing and disappear. Felipe González was hardly a neutral figure in the moves which led to the purging of Pedro Sánchez as PSOE leader. Likewise, Aznar is there, forever lingering and lurking, his discontent with Rajoy seemingly more personal than based on pure politics or policies.
The breach might therefore not augur well for Rajoy, who has discovered - to everyone's lesser surprise than the Aznar manoeuvre - that PSOE is unwilling to give him a clear run with the 2017 budget. In fact, it is placing an enormous obstacle in the way and seems likely to present an amendment to the entire budget. Ultimately, this could mean yet another election.
So Rajoy may instead have been spluttering as he drew on his havana. If PSOE, emboldened despite its enfeebled state by having granted Rajoy licence to stay on as premier, now chooses to exploit this magnanimity and challenge the budget to the point of mortality, it will be a case of close but no cigar for the latest Rajoy project.
However, there is what the public thinks, and it is this which can allow Rajoy his moments of tranquil puffing. The latest poll by Sigma Dos for "El Mundo" shows the PP to still be in the ascendant. The rating, compared with the June election, has increased by 1.8% to 34.8%. It remains a distance away from what it was when Rajoy won in 2011, but the momentum upwards is not being interrupted.
As much as Rajoy can be satisfied with this rise, he can also take note of PSOE's further decline with satisfaction. The poll reveals a 3.3% drop since June: now only 19.4%, and Unidos Podemos, despite seemingly intent on splitting themselves asunder (the Podemos element, that is), have experienced their own increase to 22.5%. The poll's finding therefore makes the words of PSOE's Mario Jiménez sound foolhardy. He has been the one saying that the party will place the budget amendment. He has also said that if Rajoy does choose to call an election, he will "not catch PSOE off-guard". He might not, but PSOE being on-guard holds absolutely no guarantee of an improved electoral performance: quite the contrary in fact.
Then there is the Podemos question. Around the same time as the PP holds its congress next month (Aznar will not be attending), Podemos have theirs. The war between the Iglesias and Errejón factions will probably end in defeat for Errejón. Even if it were the other way (and Iglesias has said he will step down, if this is the result), what will happen? It's possible that nothing will, but the battle lines are entrenched. If Podemos were to split, then the left as a whole in Spain will be split more than it already is. This would only bolster Rajoy further, he - and the PP's poll rating - having gained as a result of the long hiatus before the October investiture; this hiatus having been partly the consequence of the left's inability to arrive at anything approaching consensus.
Aznar is an irritation. The budget issue is more of an aggravation. But even another election would see Rajoy secure. There's no one challenging him.
Saturday, December 31, 2016
The Charades Of Congress And Francina
Goodness, what fun that was, and it was only spoiled by them actually approving the investiture of Mariano. There I had been, encouraging them to keep on having failed elections and failed investitures and to see if they could go the entire period of the (notional) legislature, i.e. until 2019, with Mazza doing his acting. Still, there's always the next time, we can but hope.
Had there not been the investiture, the Yuletide would have been a time for dissecting the consequences of another failed election. They were to deprive us of a Christmastime charade, we all having got used to charades during the year. Take, for instance, the one involving Ant and Dec in March. The head boy of PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, and his buddy, the little C of the C's, Albert Rivera, concocted the preposterous notion of putting Pedro up for investiture. There was only the slight matter of 88 votes which prevented this cunning plan from being put into effect.
Ant and Dec went their separate ways. Albert, seeking anyone who would have him and the other C's, tagged along with Super Mariano and eventually succeeded in helping to push Old Greybeard over the finishing line. There was more important support from the turncoats of PSOE, whose Andalusian power base - led by the dominatrix Susana Díaz - purged Pedro and offered their ironically submissive cries of yes to the Mazza investiture. Much though he was (is) objectionable, the Ruffian (Gabriel) of the Catalonian Republicans had a point when he branded the PSOE ranks as traitors to socialism.
The Ruffian and others among the Wild Left have ended the year in rather poorer shape (and humour) than they started it. Podemos appear to be irretrievably split according to degrees of lunacy. The monster raving wing under Pablo Iglesias is butting heads with the monster raving (sensible) faction led by The Infant, Iñigo Errejón, who visibly grew into adulthood during the year. Such was the divide that Pablo issued a Christmas message in which he apologised if it appeared as if Podemos were going tits up. And he wasn't referring to Rita Maestre, The Infant's "chica", who was let off by a court for having got them out in church.
All eyes will thus be turned towards the pleasant view of Vista Alegre II in February, when the Politburo will call the brotherhood and sisterhood and decide the fate of Podemos. Iglesias has said he'll step down if his "project" loses. The Infant, meanwhile, should beware any metaphorical ice-picks being delivered to his head and subsequent airbrushing from the collective memory of the Podemos collective. Whither Podemos? It's going to be a key issue in 2017.
Someone who will not be taking in the pleasant view will be battling ex-Podemos and soon to be ex-president of the Balearic parliament, Xe-Lo Huertas. It's hard to determine whether she was the victim of bullyboy (and girl) tactics on behalf of fellow travellers (no longer travelling together) or if she was just plain daft. Either way, she will cease to bustle into the speaker's chair, the big question being who will assume her role and be the one to advise the King that spending on his Almudaina reception would be more wisely invested in soup kitchens.
The Podemos local difficulty merely added to the sense of disbelief which surrounds Francina Armengol's government. La Presidenta has spent the whole year drifting around in the fog of her own charade - one of insistence that all is consensus and dialogue and as sweet and friendly as she is. It clearly is not, as was exemplified by the less than merry ding-dong which occurred between the normally jovial Enviro Man Vince Vidal (my personal favourite of the year) and Cati Cladera at finance. It was all about budgets and how much the Mésite ministries (of which Vince's is one) were to get, or not.
Further division is potentially looming, courtesy once more of Podemos. With it being suggested that Alberto Jarabo has lost the local dressing-room, might the terrifying Boot Girl, Laura Camargo, make a bid for officially taking command as opposed to be commanding from the rear (Alberto's that is)?
These rifts were as nought, however, when compared with the PP. Great sport awaits us when and if they finally have their regional congress and if J.R. does end up putting his name into the ring as returning president. The party's bouncer, one-time tourism minister Jaime Martínez, still maintains that it will be he who will be leading the even further to the right faction than the other lot. Biel Company (not as far to the right) remains odds-on, but we should be praying that Bauzá does make a bid. The entertainment will be greater than anything even Podemos can serve up.
Index for December 2016
Arenal tram - 5 December 2016
Constitutional reform - 6 December 2016
Cuba and Mallorca's hoteliers - 1 December 2016
Financing the Balearics - 20 December 2016
Fire service in Mallorca - 11 December 2016
Francina Armengol and second term - 19 December 2016
Holiday rentals and housing legislation - 8 December 2016, 14 December 2016, 18 December 2016
Ideology and political change - 27 December 2016
Insults and offence in 2016 - 28 December 2016
Investiture and other charades - 31 December 2016
Ironman - 16 December 2016
José Ramón Bauzá comeback - 26 December 2016
Mallorca and Airbnb - 3 December 2016
Mallorca Day - 9 December 2016
Matances pig slaughter - 17 December 2016
Odd stuff in 2016 - 29 December 2016
Palma airport name - 15 December 2016
Podemos and dissent - 4 December 2016, 12 December 2016
Real Mallorca - 23 December 2016
Religious tourism - 7 December 2016
Santa Claus - 25 December 2016
Saturation, sustainability and stability - 30 December 2016
Shopping tourism - 2 December 2016
Sibil-la - 24 December 2016
Subbuteo - 13 December 2016
Tourism press - 10 December 2016
Tourism promotion - 22 December 2016
Weather obsession - 21 December 2016
Had there not been the investiture, the Yuletide would have been a time for dissecting the consequences of another failed election. They were to deprive us of a Christmastime charade, we all having got used to charades during the year. Take, for instance, the one involving Ant and Dec in March. The head boy of PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, and his buddy, the little C of the C's, Albert Rivera, concocted the preposterous notion of putting Pedro up for investiture. There was only the slight matter of 88 votes which prevented this cunning plan from being put into effect.
Ant and Dec went their separate ways. Albert, seeking anyone who would have him and the other C's, tagged along with Super Mariano and eventually succeeded in helping to push Old Greybeard over the finishing line. There was more important support from the turncoats of PSOE, whose Andalusian power base - led by the dominatrix Susana Díaz - purged Pedro and offered their ironically submissive cries of yes to the Mazza investiture. Much though he was (is) objectionable, the Ruffian (Gabriel) of the Catalonian Republicans had a point when he branded the PSOE ranks as traitors to socialism.
The Ruffian and others among the Wild Left have ended the year in rather poorer shape (and humour) than they started it. Podemos appear to be irretrievably split according to degrees of lunacy. The monster raving wing under Pablo Iglesias is butting heads with the monster raving (sensible) faction led by The Infant, Iñigo Errejón, who visibly grew into adulthood during the year. Such was the divide that Pablo issued a Christmas message in which he apologised if it appeared as if Podemos were going tits up. And he wasn't referring to Rita Maestre, The Infant's "chica", who was let off by a court for having got them out in church.
All eyes will thus be turned towards the pleasant view of Vista Alegre II in February, when the Politburo will call the brotherhood and sisterhood and decide the fate of Podemos. Iglesias has said he'll step down if his "project" loses. The Infant, meanwhile, should beware any metaphorical ice-picks being delivered to his head and subsequent airbrushing from the collective memory of the Podemos collective. Whither Podemos? It's going to be a key issue in 2017.
Someone who will not be taking in the pleasant view will be battling ex-Podemos and soon to be ex-president of the Balearic parliament, Xe-Lo Huertas. It's hard to determine whether she was the victim of bullyboy (and girl) tactics on behalf of fellow travellers (no longer travelling together) or if she was just plain daft. Either way, she will cease to bustle into the speaker's chair, the big question being who will assume her role and be the one to advise the King that spending on his Almudaina reception would be more wisely invested in soup kitchens.
The Podemos local difficulty merely added to the sense of disbelief which surrounds Francina Armengol's government. La Presidenta has spent the whole year drifting around in the fog of her own charade - one of insistence that all is consensus and dialogue and as sweet and friendly as she is. It clearly is not, as was exemplified by the less than merry ding-dong which occurred between the normally jovial Enviro Man Vince Vidal (my personal favourite of the year) and Cati Cladera at finance. It was all about budgets and how much the Mésite ministries (of which Vince's is one) were to get, or not.
Further division is potentially looming, courtesy once more of Podemos. With it being suggested that Alberto Jarabo has lost the local dressing-room, might the terrifying Boot Girl, Laura Camargo, make a bid for officially taking command as opposed to be commanding from the rear (Alberto's that is)?
These rifts were as nought, however, when compared with the PP. Great sport awaits us when and if they finally have their regional congress and if J.R. does end up putting his name into the ring as returning president. The party's bouncer, one-time tourism minister Jaime Martínez, still maintains that it will be he who will be leading the even further to the right faction than the other lot. Biel Company (not as far to the right) remains odds-on, but we should be praying that Bauzá does make a bid. The entertainment will be greater than anything even Podemos can serve up.
Index for December 2016
Arenal tram - 5 December 2016
Constitutional reform - 6 December 2016
Cuba and Mallorca's hoteliers - 1 December 2016
Financing the Balearics - 20 December 2016
Fire service in Mallorca - 11 December 2016
Francina Armengol and second term - 19 December 2016
Holiday rentals and housing legislation - 8 December 2016, 14 December 2016, 18 December 2016
Ideology and political change - 27 December 2016
Insults and offence in 2016 - 28 December 2016
Investiture and other charades - 31 December 2016
Ironman - 16 December 2016
José Ramón Bauzá comeback - 26 December 2016
Mallorca and Airbnb - 3 December 2016
Mallorca Day - 9 December 2016
Matances pig slaughter - 17 December 2016
Odd stuff in 2016 - 29 December 2016
Palma airport name - 15 December 2016
Podemos and dissent - 4 December 2016, 12 December 2016
Real Mallorca - 23 December 2016
Religious tourism - 7 December 2016
Santa Claus - 25 December 2016
Saturation, sustainability and stability - 30 December 2016
Shopping tourism - 2 December 2016
Sibil-la - 24 December 2016
Subbuteo - 13 December 2016
Tourism press - 10 December 2016
Tourism promotion - 22 December 2016
Weather obsession - 21 December 2016
Monday, October 31, 2016
The Noises Of Debate: Rajoy's Investiture
In the space of almost eight months I have watched six investiture debates. At the sixth time of asking there was a result, if you can call forming a government with a minority just shy of forty per cent a result. At the sixth attempt, therefore, something finally gave. The mould was broken, although it had been cast differently for debates five and six. There was an alternative cast member. PSOE's Antonio Hernando had moved along one seat. By the sixth debate, two days after the fifth, there was an empty seat. Tearfully, Pedro Sánchez had decided it was best not to turn up. How things had changed. At the start of the eight months - for debates one and two - he would have been crowned, if only in his dreams.
The lachrymose Sánchez was the prelude to debate six. It might have overshadowed what was to follow, had it not been pre-destined for Mariano Rajoy to be reinstalled as prime minister. Debate six was the big noise in town. Sánchez was a weepy diversion, he insisting that he is not finished, that he will seek the recuperation of PSOE. If he does, it will be a tough ask. There's life still in the body socialist but it's in intensive care not knowing if it will emerge intact or be permanently fractured.
There were big noises and bigger noises. Several thousand had gathered to surround Congress. The protest was allowed. Not even Rajoy's wretched law could prevent it being given clearance. That law, the gagging one, was just one reason for the thousands to have gathered. Other reasons ... . Well, by now we all know the reasons, while the several thousands were having none of the carve-up by the "mafias" inside Congress. Alas for Cuidadanos, ten years young, it has been branded thus alongside the much older mafias of the PP and PSOE. It was politicians from the C's for whom the greatest jeers were reserved.
Inside Congress there were various bursts of big noise. Cheers, heckles, one of the biggest came at half-time, prior to the actual vote, when the stewards looked as if they might have been required to keep the factions apart. The PP's Rafael Hernando, who had upset Podemos so much during debate five with his four million dollar Venezuelan accusation, was in discussion with Iglesias and Errejón. Surprisingly, it didn't look as unfriendly as might have been expected.
There again, Iglesias came out of debate six with an enormous amount of credit. His speech obliterated all others. Its passion was exceptional. Iglesias is enormously impressive, and when he spoke about the need for a young and new Spain, one couldn't help but contrast the informality of Podemos (in their attire) and the stiffness of the suit-wearing ranks of the PP and indeed PSOE. What was most impressive was that he didn't resort to name-calling. His was a speech for the future, of a politician growing in stature. There may be differences within his party, but Iglesias and Podemos are not going away. Indeed, they will believe their role is ever more crucial now.
Although Iglesias and his Podemos colleagues were to applaud his intervention, the speech of the Catalonia Republican Left's Gabriel Rufián was deserving of none. It was not as if he didn't have valid points, but it was the language he used that set him well apart from Iglesias. This was the oafishness of a students' union activist not the discourse of a Congress politician. His walk to the lectern spoke volumes. He passed the ranks of the PP glowering and with the swagger of a football hooligan. At the end, he even argued with the referee - the president of the house (speaker), Ana Pastor - who switched off his mike because he had gone over time. Before doing so, though, he had reprimanded PSOE for their kowtowing to a "cacique", for their being traitors to socialism. They should be ashamed. Yes, he had valid points, but the delivery was odious. Antonio Hernando, scandalised, said that Rufián had spoken with "odio" - hate. Rufián had lived up to more than just his name. He was a disgrace.
It was a minor player who was to offer the strongest rebuke to Rufián. The diminutive Ana Oramas from the Canaries was not easy to understand - the accent is pronounced - but there was no mistaking her distaste for the disrespect Rufián had shown the house as well as PSOE. He shouldn't behave in such a juvenile way. There was big noise of applause.
And finally, when the voting was over and the result was announced, there was no big noise from PSOE. They didn't applaud Rajoy. He had won the day but there are many other days to come. He needs to show magnanimity, he needs to prove that he is capable of dialogue. If he can't, debates seven and eight might occur sooner than he would hope.
Index for October 2016
Agriculture and tourism - 11 October 2016
Airbnb and hoteliers - 1 October 2016
All-inclusives - 8 October 2015
Balearic government - 10 October 2016
Bullying - 21 October 2016
Caso Gürtel - 7 October 2016
Ecotourism and sustainability - 18 October 2016
Fornalutx and prettiest villages - 28 October 2016
Havaneres - 9 October 2016
Hiking and the history of excursions - 3 October 2016
Holiday prices - 5 October 2016, 29 October 2016
Imserso holidays - 15 October 2016
Land plans in Mallorca - 25 October 2016
Museum of Water - 6 October 2016
Pebre bord pepper - 23 October 2016
Pep v. Pepsi - 14 October 2016
PSOE crisis - 2 October 2016, 4 October 2016
Rajoy investiture - 19 October 2016, 31 October 2016
Rock music in Mallorca - 30 October 2016
Saturation, sustainability and employment - 22 October 2016, 26 October 2016
Spain's National Day - 13 October 2016
Theatres - 16 October 2016
Tourism minister for Spain - 20 October 2016. 24 October 2016
Tramuntana fairs - 12 October 2016
UFOs - 27 October 2016
Xelo Huertas in Rome - 17 October 2016
The lachrymose Sánchez was the prelude to debate six. It might have overshadowed what was to follow, had it not been pre-destined for Mariano Rajoy to be reinstalled as prime minister. Debate six was the big noise in town. Sánchez was a weepy diversion, he insisting that he is not finished, that he will seek the recuperation of PSOE. If he does, it will be a tough ask. There's life still in the body socialist but it's in intensive care not knowing if it will emerge intact or be permanently fractured.
There were big noises and bigger noises. Several thousand had gathered to surround Congress. The protest was allowed. Not even Rajoy's wretched law could prevent it being given clearance. That law, the gagging one, was just one reason for the thousands to have gathered. Other reasons ... . Well, by now we all know the reasons, while the several thousands were having none of the carve-up by the "mafias" inside Congress. Alas for Cuidadanos, ten years young, it has been branded thus alongside the much older mafias of the PP and PSOE. It was politicians from the C's for whom the greatest jeers were reserved.
Inside Congress there were various bursts of big noise. Cheers, heckles, one of the biggest came at half-time, prior to the actual vote, when the stewards looked as if they might have been required to keep the factions apart. The PP's Rafael Hernando, who had upset Podemos so much during debate five with his four million dollar Venezuelan accusation, was in discussion with Iglesias and Errejón. Surprisingly, it didn't look as unfriendly as might have been expected.
There again, Iglesias came out of debate six with an enormous amount of credit. His speech obliterated all others. Its passion was exceptional. Iglesias is enormously impressive, and when he spoke about the need for a young and new Spain, one couldn't help but contrast the informality of Podemos (in their attire) and the stiffness of the suit-wearing ranks of the PP and indeed PSOE. What was most impressive was that he didn't resort to name-calling. His was a speech for the future, of a politician growing in stature. There may be differences within his party, but Iglesias and Podemos are not going away. Indeed, they will believe their role is ever more crucial now.
Although Iglesias and his Podemos colleagues were to applaud his intervention, the speech of the Catalonia Republican Left's Gabriel Rufián was deserving of none. It was not as if he didn't have valid points, but it was the language he used that set him well apart from Iglesias. This was the oafishness of a students' union activist not the discourse of a Congress politician. His walk to the lectern spoke volumes. He passed the ranks of the PP glowering and with the swagger of a football hooligan. At the end, he even argued with the referee - the president of the house (speaker), Ana Pastor - who switched off his mike because he had gone over time. Before doing so, though, he had reprimanded PSOE for their kowtowing to a "cacique", for their being traitors to socialism. They should be ashamed. Yes, he had valid points, but the delivery was odious. Antonio Hernando, scandalised, said that Rufián had spoken with "odio" - hate. Rufián had lived up to more than just his name. He was a disgrace.
It was a minor player who was to offer the strongest rebuke to Rufián. The diminutive Ana Oramas from the Canaries was not easy to understand - the accent is pronounced - but there was no mistaking her distaste for the disrespect Rufián had shown the house as well as PSOE. He shouldn't behave in such a juvenile way. There was big noise of applause.
And finally, when the voting was over and the result was announced, there was no big noise from PSOE. They didn't applaud Rajoy. He had won the day but there are many other days to come. He needs to show magnanimity, he needs to prove that he is capable of dialogue. If he can't, debates seven and eight might occur sooner than he would hope.
Index for October 2016
Agriculture and tourism - 11 October 2016
Airbnb and hoteliers - 1 October 2016
All-inclusives - 8 October 2015
Balearic government - 10 October 2016
Bullying - 21 October 2016
Caso Gürtel - 7 October 2016
Ecotourism and sustainability - 18 October 2016
Fornalutx and prettiest villages - 28 October 2016
Havaneres - 9 October 2016
Hiking and the history of excursions - 3 October 2016
Holiday prices - 5 October 2016, 29 October 2016
Imserso holidays - 15 October 2016
Land plans in Mallorca - 25 October 2016
Museum of Water - 6 October 2016
Pebre bord pepper - 23 October 2016
Pep v. Pepsi - 14 October 2016
PSOE crisis - 2 October 2016, 4 October 2016
Rajoy investiture - 19 October 2016, 31 October 2016
Rock music in Mallorca - 30 October 2016
Saturation, sustainability and employment - 22 October 2016, 26 October 2016
Spain's National Day - 13 October 2016
Theatres - 16 October 2016
Tourism minister for Spain - 20 October 2016. 24 October 2016
Tramuntana fairs - 12 October 2016
UFOs - 27 October 2016
Xelo Huertas in Rome - 17 October 2016
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Andalusia's Gambit: Investiture Or Not
Andalusia. A region apart but a region very much a part. Where would Spain have been without Andalusia? Arguments can rage about the origins of flamenco - and they do - but it is Andalusia which takes the honour. The vibrancy of the dance and music helped to make Spain. In the eyes of the world, it was Andalusia which captured the essence of the new tourism. The Costa del Sol, curiously enough, wasn't a focus for the first wave, but Andalusia had exported its vivaciousness, its difference, and it changed Spain forever.
Andalusia may be on the point of changing Spain again. Or is it that it will put it back together? The most that Andalusia might do is reshape Spain's politics. That mould has already been undergoing manipulation, being twisted and distorted by new hands ready to render the old hands redundant. There is further manufacture afoot or in hand. This is breaking the mould of PSOE. Or is it that the mould returns to its original factory settings, not those of times long ago but of times more recent. These were contented times before the new hands started making light work of the outmoded shape PSOE had contorted itself into in peculiar antagonistic alliance with the Partido Popular.
This coming Sunday may well prove to be a defining moment. PSOE's federal committee will meet. It has a choice. It can agree to facilitate the investiture of Mariano Rajoy as prime minister or it can say no to Rajoy. Which way will it go? Andalusia will be all important in the decision.
Andalusia is apart because it is the only region in Spain to have been socialist since democratic regional governments were established. Here is one aspect of its difference, a seemingly curious one, for this is a region of great culture and great cities, apparently overwhelmed by richness to match the richness of that culture. Yet it is comparatively poor. Where would Andalusia be without Spain? It does well from the regional financing system. Very well.
It has a legacy. This is the region where liberalism was born, where the Cadiz Constitution envisaged a new Spain, a more egalitarian Spain, where the fight against Bonaparte was fostered, and where there was the consequent fight against the treacherous Ferdinand VII, who destroyed that movement and condemned Spain to decades of self-destruction. The omens may not sound good.
The new liberalism is one cloaked with conservatism. Andalusia, the nation's power base for PSOE, will decide. The broker of the power is its president, Susana Díaz. Her number two, Juan Cornejo, might just have uttered a statement that will pass into common use as an aphorism. "To govern is as important as leading an opposition." It can be taken to have a double meaning, but the intent is clear. The task of governing will fall to Mariano Rajoy. The opposition, the PSOE opposition, will be empowered by this. It can facilitate investiture, but it holds the power to influence policy. It hopes. Unless it falls apart, shattered by a region apart.
Díaz and Andalusia are determined that their vision and version of PSOE continues. It is the conservative version, the cosily close to the PP version, one in the name of the nation that it (Andalusia) did so much to bring to the world's attention. The nation is important to Andalusia. Apart but a part, it needs the unity of the nation, not least the greater riches in relative terms that exist elsewhere: Catalonia, the Balearics, for instance.
PSOE in Catalonia, via its first secretary Miquel Iceta, has said that a third election would be preferable to Rajoy. He doesn't, though, see that facilitating Rajoy's investiture will rupture the party and force it apart. The Balearics' Francina Armengol, trapped by the government of her making, thinks otherwise: possibly, or even probably. Tensions could erupt into revolution on Sunday.
Andalusia and its compatriots elsewhere, such as the "managing" leader Javier Fernández of Asturias, have a cunning plan. They will allow the investiture, but it will be support-lite. Eleven deputies in Congress will be put up as the sacrificial lambs. Rajoy would therefore stagger over the finishing-line, ten months after the race started. Who could have ever thought that they might hatch such a plan? Far be it from me, but it was me. I suggested several weeks ago that Pedro Sánchez could have done just that.
But whichever way Sánchez had chosen - and it now seems as if he backed the loser - it was wrong. Or right. He was caught in the vice of his party's enfeeblement. Andalusia, if it indeed plays its eleven-hand gambit, will trust that this will be reversed by the empowerment of highly scrutinising opposition. It will trust and it will hope, but might the consequence be that there is more which is apart? PSOE itself, and never forget Catalonia.
Andalusia may be on the point of changing Spain again. Or is it that it will put it back together? The most that Andalusia might do is reshape Spain's politics. That mould has already been undergoing manipulation, being twisted and distorted by new hands ready to render the old hands redundant. There is further manufacture afoot or in hand. This is breaking the mould of PSOE. Or is it that the mould returns to its original factory settings, not those of times long ago but of times more recent. These were contented times before the new hands started making light work of the outmoded shape PSOE had contorted itself into in peculiar antagonistic alliance with the Partido Popular.
This coming Sunday may well prove to be a defining moment. PSOE's federal committee will meet. It has a choice. It can agree to facilitate the investiture of Mariano Rajoy as prime minister or it can say no to Rajoy. Which way will it go? Andalusia will be all important in the decision.
Andalusia is apart because it is the only region in Spain to have been socialist since democratic regional governments were established. Here is one aspect of its difference, a seemingly curious one, for this is a region of great culture and great cities, apparently overwhelmed by richness to match the richness of that culture. Yet it is comparatively poor. Where would Andalusia be without Spain? It does well from the regional financing system. Very well.
It has a legacy. This is the region where liberalism was born, where the Cadiz Constitution envisaged a new Spain, a more egalitarian Spain, where the fight against Bonaparte was fostered, and where there was the consequent fight against the treacherous Ferdinand VII, who destroyed that movement and condemned Spain to decades of self-destruction. The omens may not sound good.
The new liberalism is one cloaked with conservatism. Andalusia, the nation's power base for PSOE, will decide. The broker of the power is its president, Susana Díaz. Her number two, Juan Cornejo, might just have uttered a statement that will pass into common use as an aphorism. "To govern is as important as leading an opposition." It can be taken to have a double meaning, but the intent is clear. The task of governing will fall to Mariano Rajoy. The opposition, the PSOE opposition, will be empowered by this. It can facilitate investiture, but it holds the power to influence policy. It hopes. Unless it falls apart, shattered by a region apart.
Díaz and Andalusia are determined that their vision and version of PSOE continues. It is the conservative version, the cosily close to the PP version, one in the name of the nation that it (Andalusia) did so much to bring to the world's attention. The nation is important to Andalusia. Apart but a part, it needs the unity of the nation, not least the greater riches in relative terms that exist elsewhere: Catalonia, the Balearics, for instance.
PSOE in Catalonia, via its first secretary Miquel Iceta, has said that a third election would be preferable to Rajoy. He doesn't, though, see that facilitating Rajoy's investiture will rupture the party and force it apart. The Balearics' Francina Armengol, trapped by the government of her making, thinks otherwise: possibly, or even probably. Tensions could erupt into revolution on Sunday.
Andalusia and its compatriots elsewhere, such as the "managing" leader Javier Fernández of Asturias, have a cunning plan. They will allow the investiture, but it will be support-lite. Eleven deputies in Congress will be put up as the sacrificial lambs. Rajoy would therefore stagger over the finishing-line, ten months after the race started. Who could have ever thought that they might hatch such a plan? Far be it from me, but it was me. I suggested several weeks ago that Pedro Sánchez could have done just that.
But whichever way Sánchez had chosen - and it now seems as if he backed the loser - it was wrong. Or right. He was caught in the vice of his party's enfeeblement. Andalusia, if it indeed plays its eleven-hand gambit, will trust that this will be reversed by the empowerment of highly scrutinising opposition. It will trust and it will hope, but might the consequence be that there is more which is apart? PSOE itself, and never forget Catalonia.
Monday, October 10, 2016
Shielding The Balearics
They're thinking of erecting a shield. What might this be? Some giant, invisible forcefield floating above the Balearics, deflecting assaults from a Rajoy Air Force firing off lawsuits in attempts to prevent high explosive being placed under the Balearic budget and a hole being blasted into the deficit the size of the Gorg Blau reservoir (when full)?
Or might the shield be a human one, comprising the last remaining tourists to ever set foot on Balearic soil (all of it to be returned to a virginal state) before the tourist tax is put up one hundred fold? Those planning the shield were the Daves - April (of Més) and Spart (aka Alberto Jarabo of Podemos). The "pact" of government is to be shielded. Francina Armengol will be ushered into a bunker, occasionally emerging to engage in consensus and dialogue, while the Daves get on with the business of that deficit-blowing.
This is what happens, you see, when socialist parties implode (in Spain, at any rate). Rent asunder by the apparent willingness to anoint Mariano, the socialists of the Balearics were cast further adrift from peninsula (or any other) reality than the 250 kilometres or so typically allow them to operate in less than splendid isolation. It was the socialists themselves who required shielding. The Daves were making overtures to them. Come and join us. We open our hearts to PSOE-ites whose hearts might otherwise be pierced by the knife of Rajoy investiture.
Francina, meanwhile, was all for going it alone in a socialist fashion. Pedro Sánchez, not beware the Ides of October, had been knifed - "Et tu, Susana?". The betrayal of socialist principles (as in allowing Rajoy to carry on), delivered with the stab in Sánchéz's back, was sufficient for Francina to consider isolating Balearic socialists even more. PSIB would mean PSIB. No more PSOE, that's for sure.
Adding to this mayhem, Dave April was speaking about sovereignty. Might the 2019 regional election become a referendum for Balearic independence? Dave was neither ruling it out nor ruling it in, which was something of a theme of the week. What actually were they thinking about the tourist tax? The official line was that there would be no increase in 2017. Finance minister (for now) Catalina Cladera insisted there wouldn't be, but then sort of didn't insist. Her position is vulnerable, and she knows it. Podemos had invited themselves into the budget-setting process for next year. Next it'll be places in the government. Tourist tax increase, anyone? Don't mind if we do. Any advance on ten times more?
The Podemos Dave - Alberto - first said that it would be "interesting" to "help" to design the budget for 2017, by which he meant write it. Interesting became yes we will design it, and Podemos are already dictating next year's strategy, one by which the Balearic manufacturing sector will, along with the agricultural sector, rise to a position of world dominance. Or maybe not; globalisation not exactly sitting well with anti-capitalists. Hoteliers will meanwhile be packed off to agrarian labour camps for re-education and to cultivate dwindling stocks of carobs.
Piece by piece the shield was being put into place. All in all some further bricks in the wall, each marked Podemos.
Or might the shield be a human one, comprising the last remaining tourists to ever set foot on Balearic soil (all of it to be returned to a virginal state) before the tourist tax is put up one hundred fold? Those planning the shield were the Daves - April (of Més) and Spart (aka Alberto Jarabo of Podemos). The "pact" of government is to be shielded. Francina Armengol will be ushered into a bunker, occasionally emerging to engage in consensus and dialogue, while the Daves get on with the business of that deficit-blowing.
This is what happens, you see, when socialist parties implode (in Spain, at any rate). Rent asunder by the apparent willingness to anoint Mariano, the socialists of the Balearics were cast further adrift from peninsula (or any other) reality than the 250 kilometres or so typically allow them to operate in less than splendid isolation. It was the socialists themselves who required shielding. The Daves were making overtures to them. Come and join us. We open our hearts to PSOE-ites whose hearts might otherwise be pierced by the knife of Rajoy investiture.
Francina, meanwhile, was all for going it alone in a socialist fashion. Pedro Sánchez, not beware the Ides of October, had been knifed - "Et tu, Susana?". The betrayal of socialist principles (as in allowing Rajoy to carry on), delivered with the stab in Sánchéz's back, was sufficient for Francina to consider isolating Balearic socialists even more. PSIB would mean PSIB. No more PSOE, that's for sure.
Adding to this mayhem, Dave April was speaking about sovereignty. Might the 2019 regional election become a referendum for Balearic independence? Dave was neither ruling it out nor ruling it in, which was something of a theme of the week. What actually were they thinking about the tourist tax? The official line was that there would be no increase in 2017. Finance minister (for now) Catalina Cladera insisted there wouldn't be, but then sort of didn't insist. Her position is vulnerable, and she knows it. Podemos had invited themselves into the budget-setting process for next year. Next it'll be places in the government. Tourist tax increase, anyone? Don't mind if we do. Any advance on ten times more?
The Podemos Dave - Alberto - first said that it would be "interesting" to "help" to design the budget for 2017, by which he meant write it. Interesting became yes we will design it, and Podemos are already dictating next year's strategy, one by which the Balearic manufacturing sector will, along with the agricultural sector, rise to a position of world dominance. Or maybe not; globalisation not exactly sitting well with anti-capitalists. Hoteliers will meanwhile be packed off to agrarian labour camps for re-education and to cultivate dwindling stocks of carobs.
Piece by piece the shield was being put into place. All in all some further bricks in the wall, each marked Podemos.
Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Whither PSOE? Whither Armengol?
So, what now? President Armengol was one of a group of five PSOE delegates from the Balearics who were humbled along with Pedro Sánchez on Saturday. Armengol, the only regional leader to have backed Sánchez, is even more out on a limb than before. She will have been thankful for the reassuring presence among the five of former president Francesc Antich. He is to join the "management" committee that will now attempt to sort out the mess of the vote against Sánchez and his resignation. Antich is saying the same things as Armengol. The "militants", i.e. the party's grassroots, need to vote on the future. He couldn't say anything else. Nor could Armengol.
He is also saying, as indeed are others, that it isn't a foregone conclusion that there will be a PSOE abstention which allows the investiture of Mariano Rajoy. The Partido Popular has not, according to some in PSOE, done anything to make PSOE confident in abstaining or creating a most unlikely coalition. The federal committee will decide whether there is to be an abstention, and it has so far said "no" to Rajoy.
If this continues to be the case, then one wonders quite what getting rid of Sánchez will have achieved. The party may have been suffering poor results under him, but the impression was that this wasn't the sole reason for his having been given a vote of no confidence. The talk had been of the committee moving in favour of an abstention. Because of all that happened, no such debate took place, and the committee seems unlikely to reconvene until after the middle of the month.
The situation is now even more confused than it was. If there were to be a decision in favour of abstention, things would then need to move extremely quickly so that there could be an as yet hypothetical second attempt at a Rajoy investiture. The deadline is 31 October. No government by then, and the King will dissolve parliament and there will be another election. For PSOE, given its turmoil, this would be the last thing it wants. Or you would think so. There might be a hope that with a different person at the top, there will be a bounce in the polls. Equally, there could be even greater carnage. Would that mean Podemos benefiting? Possibly, but Podemos has its own division. The electorate may decide in any event to put an end to all the nonsense and turn to the PP in far greater number.
Given all this confusion, it's hard to really say how the Balearic government will be affected in the short term. On the face of things, Armengol finds herself in a weaker position than the already weak one that she was in prior to Sanchez's resignation. Everything, as far as the "pact" for her government is concerned, would seem to hinge on the abstention decision. If Rajoy is allowed in by PSOE, all bets might well be off. By having aligned herself firmly with Sánchez and against the abstention decision, Armengol will be hoping that the pact doesn't rupture.
Meanwhile, she is faced by the thorny issue of the 2017 budget. Questions have been raised, not least by the Balearic PP, about the willingness of Podemos to support it. The government is obliged to keep within deficit limits and so therefore not overspend or over borrow, but with the ongoing chaos at national level - now made even more chaotic - Podemos (and Més) might press for a deficit-busting budget, something that Armengol and her finance minister Catalina Cladera would surely not sanction: there are consequences to consider.
If Podemos were to decide to break the pact, life would obviously become even more difficult for Armengol. And then there's Més, with only one seat fewer (nine) than Podemos. PSOE with fourteen of the 59 seats would be unable to do anything, unless there was a pact with the PP. Armengol would never countenance that. Would she? The situation in Castile-La Mancha, where the PP offered support to PSOE after Podemos broke a pact of government there, hardly offers a precedent. The PP's leader in Castile-La Mancha has lamented the fact that the offer was greeted with insult and discrediting. Forget the PP coming to the aid of Armengol in the Balearics; it simply won't happen.
The possibility exists, therefore, for an almost total state of stasis taking hold with the Balearic government. But there is another scenario. Podemos might just decide that the time will have come for it to formally join the government. God knows what that might mean for ministerial positions, but if it were the best chance that Armengol has for carrying on, then who knows - maybe a Podemos finance minister.
If you thought that things were complicated before, they are about to become even more complicated.
He is also saying, as indeed are others, that it isn't a foregone conclusion that there will be a PSOE abstention which allows the investiture of Mariano Rajoy. The Partido Popular has not, according to some in PSOE, done anything to make PSOE confident in abstaining or creating a most unlikely coalition. The federal committee will decide whether there is to be an abstention, and it has so far said "no" to Rajoy.
If this continues to be the case, then one wonders quite what getting rid of Sánchez will have achieved. The party may have been suffering poor results under him, but the impression was that this wasn't the sole reason for his having been given a vote of no confidence. The talk had been of the committee moving in favour of an abstention. Because of all that happened, no such debate took place, and the committee seems unlikely to reconvene until after the middle of the month.
The situation is now even more confused than it was. If there were to be a decision in favour of abstention, things would then need to move extremely quickly so that there could be an as yet hypothetical second attempt at a Rajoy investiture. The deadline is 31 October. No government by then, and the King will dissolve parliament and there will be another election. For PSOE, given its turmoil, this would be the last thing it wants. Or you would think so. There might be a hope that with a different person at the top, there will be a bounce in the polls. Equally, there could be even greater carnage. Would that mean Podemos benefiting? Possibly, but Podemos has its own division. The electorate may decide in any event to put an end to all the nonsense and turn to the PP in far greater number.
Given all this confusion, it's hard to really say how the Balearic government will be affected in the short term. On the face of things, Armengol finds herself in a weaker position than the already weak one that she was in prior to Sanchez's resignation. Everything, as far as the "pact" for her government is concerned, would seem to hinge on the abstention decision. If Rajoy is allowed in by PSOE, all bets might well be off. By having aligned herself firmly with Sánchez and against the abstention decision, Armengol will be hoping that the pact doesn't rupture.
Meanwhile, she is faced by the thorny issue of the 2017 budget. Questions have been raised, not least by the Balearic PP, about the willingness of Podemos to support it. The government is obliged to keep within deficit limits and so therefore not overspend or over borrow, but with the ongoing chaos at national level - now made even more chaotic - Podemos (and Més) might press for a deficit-busting budget, something that Armengol and her finance minister Catalina Cladera would surely not sanction: there are consequences to consider.
If Podemos were to decide to break the pact, life would obviously become even more difficult for Armengol. And then there's Més, with only one seat fewer (nine) than Podemos. PSOE with fourteen of the 59 seats would be unable to do anything, unless there was a pact with the PP. Armengol would never countenance that. Would she? The situation in Castile-La Mancha, where the PP offered support to PSOE after Podemos broke a pact of government there, hardly offers a precedent. The PP's leader in Castile-La Mancha has lamented the fact that the offer was greeted with insult and discrediting. Forget the PP coming to the aid of Armengol in the Balearics; it simply won't happen.
The possibility exists, therefore, for an almost total state of stasis taking hold with the Balearic government. But there is another scenario. Podemos might just decide that the time will have come for it to formally join the government. God knows what that might mean for ministerial positions, but if it were the best chance that Armengol has for carrying on, then who knows - maybe a Podemos finance minister.
If you thought that things were complicated before, they are about to become even more complicated.
Sunday, October 02, 2016
The Party That Was Taken Over
Spain knows a thing or two about the coup d'État. The country knows it as a "golpe de Estado". It knows about failed ones, too. 1981 was the famous one. That of 1982 was less famous. They swept it under the carpet. The failure had occurred on the eve of the general election. It was designed to prevent a socialist government coming to power. Everyone knew that Felipe González would win. Some were determined that he wouldn't.
González duly won the election. He was president (prime minister) for fourteen years. For the most part, these were the glory years for PSOE. They were the glory years for all of Spain's post-1975 democracy. A charismatic leader gave the country hope and pride. It clambered aboard the European gravy train; largesse flowed south in shoring up this nascent, socialist-led democracy - a country undergoing a renaissance.
It ended, as it tends to, in scandal and acrimony. The Partido Popular came to power. When it failed to win in 2004 - a result widely attributed to its mishandling of the Madrid bombs - in came Mister Bean: José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Everyone, including himself, was surprised. ZP, a decent, honourable man in a John Major-ineffectual sort of way, was no González, and he was to have his Jim Callaghan moment. Crisis, what crisis. The PSOE government poured money it didn't have into building its way out of the crash. This just made the eventual wreckage worse. ZP departed, to be replaced by Mr. Greybeard, Uncle Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba. He never stood a chance. The Rajoy era was to begin.
This background is important in understanding what has been happening over the past few days. Susana Díaz, the Andalusian president, is said to have launched a coup d'État, one designed to bring down Pedro Sánchez. There are different reasons for her having done so, of which her own ambition is just one. The crisis that has engulfed PSOE is attributed to two key factors - its disastrous election results while under Sánchez's watch and its stance over a future government. There are others.
PSOE has never recaptured the glory years. It remains a hostage to the González era. He was the party's figurehead, the national figurehead. It was PSOE who really effected the "transition" in Spain. A coup attempt could not derail that movement. It was a party of its time, but scandal, complacency and uninspiring leadership were to make it a party identified with a corrupt two-party system. The "casta" of PSOE and the PP was all that Podemos really needed. Enter, therefore, the charismatic Pablo Iglesias.
PSOE's polling has been massively affected by the emergence of Podemos and Ciudadanos. The same can be said of the PP, but the PP has remained comparatively strong where PSOE has been enfeebled. But there has been a more fundamental dynamic. PSOE has become a party directed by another - Podemos. Not directly, but its whole thinking is now determined by the factions who are for or against Podemos. It has been taken over by an outside influence. It has become a shell of a party in which even the pro-Podemos faction is uncertain. Sánchez is one of them.
He has vacillated greatly. But at the heart of his latest apparent shift - one in a Podemos direction - is the accusation that enabling the PP to govern would be evidence of the perpetuation of the "casta". He's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, because this is where PSOE has ended up: a party no longer in control of its destiny and suffering the collateral damage of ebbing electoral support.
Sánchez threw down the gauntlet last week. There would be "primaries", ostensibly to determine who will lead the party into a third election but manifestly a vote of confidence (or not). Moreover, were Sánchez to carry the day, the quirks of the system might enable him to magic up a pact that would not require an election. The cut-off point, when the King dissolves parliament, is the end of this month. Prime Minister Sánchez might step forward, Pablo Iglesias with his hands on the strings and God alone knows whatever other parties coming along for the ride.
The gauntlet thrown, and executive committee members resigned en masse, their support for him gone. Díaz declared her coup. "Barons" in the party lined up against Sánchez, and the party's past - that hostage - caught up with Sánchez. Felipe González, still exercising great influence, declared that he had been "fooled" by Sánchez. The knife was being twisted and it was being turned in the direction of the "casta".
In the end, it wasn't a vote to abstain to allow Rajoy's investiture that did it. There was to be a show of hands on the holding of a congress, in effect a vote of confidence in Sánchez. He lost. He walked. Whichever way it had gone, Podemos would have succeeded. The party founded by one Pablo Iglesias had been infiltrated by another Pablo Iglesias. Its future has been determined not by it but by an outside force: it was Iglesias who launched the coup. Whether it has a future will be seen. The past week was monumental in deciding its fate.
González duly won the election. He was president (prime minister) for fourteen years. For the most part, these were the glory years for PSOE. They were the glory years for all of Spain's post-1975 democracy. A charismatic leader gave the country hope and pride. It clambered aboard the European gravy train; largesse flowed south in shoring up this nascent, socialist-led democracy - a country undergoing a renaissance.
It ended, as it tends to, in scandal and acrimony. The Partido Popular came to power. When it failed to win in 2004 - a result widely attributed to its mishandling of the Madrid bombs - in came Mister Bean: José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Everyone, including himself, was surprised. ZP, a decent, honourable man in a John Major-ineffectual sort of way, was no González, and he was to have his Jim Callaghan moment. Crisis, what crisis. The PSOE government poured money it didn't have into building its way out of the crash. This just made the eventual wreckage worse. ZP departed, to be replaced by Mr. Greybeard, Uncle Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba. He never stood a chance. The Rajoy era was to begin.
This background is important in understanding what has been happening over the past few days. Susana Díaz, the Andalusian president, is said to have launched a coup d'État, one designed to bring down Pedro Sánchez. There are different reasons for her having done so, of which her own ambition is just one. The crisis that has engulfed PSOE is attributed to two key factors - its disastrous election results while under Sánchez's watch and its stance over a future government. There are others.
PSOE has never recaptured the glory years. It remains a hostage to the González era. He was the party's figurehead, the national figurehead. It was PSOE who really effected the "transition" in Spain. A coup attempt could not derail that movement. It was a party of its time, but scandal, complacency and uninspiring leadership were to make it a party identified with a corrupt two-party system. The "casta" of PSOE and the PP was all that Podemos really needed. Enter, therefore, the charismatic Pablo Iglesias.
PSOE's polling has been massively affected by the emergence of Podemos and Ciudadanos. The same can be said of the PP, but the PP has remained comparatively strong where PSOE has been enfeebled. But there has been a more fundamental dynamic. PSOE has become a party directed by another - Podemos. Not directly, but its whole thinking is now determined by the factions who are for or against Podemos. It has been taken over by an outside influence. It has become a shell of a party in which even the pro-Podemos faction is uncertain. Sánchez is one of them.
He has vacillated greatly. But at the heart of his latest apparent shift - one in a Podemos direction - is the accusation that enabling the PP to govern would be evidence of the perpetuation of the "casta". He's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, because this is where PSOE has ended up: a party no longer in control of its destiny and suffering the collateral damage of ebbing electoral support.
Sánchez threw down the gauntlet last week. There would be "primaries", ostensibly to determine who will lead the party into a third election but manifestly a vote of confidence (or not). Moreover, were Sánchez to carry the day, the quirks of the system might enable him to magic up a pact that would not require an election. The cut-off point, when the King dissolves parliament, is the end of this month. Prime Minister Sánchez might step forward, Pablo Iglesias with his hands on the strings and God alone knows whatever other parties coming along for the ride.
The gauntlet thrown, and executive committee members resigned en masse, their support for him gone. Díaz declared her coup. "Barons" in the party lined up against Sánchez, and the party's past - that hostage - caught up with Sánchez. Felipe González, still exercising great influence, declared that he had been "fooled" by Sánchez. The knife was being twisted and it was being turned in the direction of the "casta".
In the end, it wasn't a vote to abstain to allow Rajoy's investiture that did it. There was to be a show of hands on the holding of a congress, in effect a vote of confidence in Sánchez. He lost. He walked. Whichever way it had gone, Podemos would have succeeded. The party founded by one Pablo Iglesias had been infiltrated by another Pablo Iglesias. Its future has been determined not by it but by an outside force: it was Iglesias who launched the coup. Whether it has a future will be seen. The past week was monumental in deciding its fate.
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Galicia Lessons: The End For Sánchez?
Regional elections in Spain, because they are not all held at the same time, can be viewed as a test of a public opinion about the national government. In Spain at present, however, there is only a national government by default, one that is nine months on from when it should either have been confirmed as re-elected or ousted. Are, in these circumstances, the elections in the Basque Country and Galicia relevant? Do they say anything about the national government?
They most certainly do. More importantly, they say a great deal about the pretenders, one of whom is PSOE; the PSOE that Pedro Sánchez leads. This is not the PSOE of the whole country, however, and the results loosen his grip - already tenuous - ever more. The knives of Andalusia, in the hands of Susana Díaz, are being sharpened on the stone. How long can Sánchez carry on?
Consider the numbers. In Galicia the regional version of PSOE suffered its worst ever result. It ended up with fourteen seats in the regional parliament with slightly less than 18% of the vote in a four-way fight. En Marea, effectively Podemos by another name, also gained fourteen seats but with a higher share of the vote - just over 19%. Both were eclipsed by the Partido Popular. Alberto Núñez Feijóo will continue to govern with an absolute majority.
In the Basque Country, the socialists suffered major losses - seven seats gone, leaving them with nine. The PNV, habitual leaders in the region, have insufficient seats for an overall majority, but could hook up with the PP (or PSOE) and establish a parliamentary majority.
While Feijóo's win in Galicia will be taken as enhancing Mariano Rajoy's moral right to remain as national prime minister, it needs reminding that Galicia is very firm PP territory - and Feijóo territory. The loss of one PP seat in the Basque Country places a rather different spin on things. Perhaps the strongest message to come from the elections, where the PP is concerned, is that Feijóo has strengthened his case for replacing Rajoy.
Rather than a test of public opinion for Rajoy, the elections were a poll on the ambitions of Sánchez and PSOE to attempt to form an "alternative" government of the left. These are surely dashed, if indeed they have ever truly been realistic. Díaz had made it clear that they weren't, given the fact that PSOE have only 85 seats in the national Congress.
A surprise with Sánchez is the fact that he's still in charge. Reflect on the charge sheet. A failed attempt, an awfully failed attempt at investiture, followed by a second election at which PSOE lost more seats in Congress. Yet he still believes he can form a government, seemingly egged on by the likes of Balearic president Francina Armengol into adopting a model of government akin to that in the Balearics - one that quite plainly isn't functioning. Armengol is deluded and so is Sánchez. With the batterings in the Basque Country and Galicia, his time must surely be up.
If this proves to be the case, the PSOE "barons", marshalled by Díaz, will manoeuvre a situation whereby there is a pact with Rajoy and the PP (or possibly with Feijóo and the PP; this may be the price Rajoy has to pay). For Francina Armengol, who must have been observing the results coming in with increasing horror and alarm, such a national manouevre would be terminal. Podemos wouldn't stand for it, while Més seem ever increasingly alienated from Armengol.
If PSOE were the big losers in these two elections, what about Cuidadanos? This party is more and more like an annoying terrier, snapping at the heels of others. It is shooed away but keeps coming back, yapping and yapping but never getting its way. Its leader, Albert Rivera, had been looking at the prospect of a post-election alliance with the PP in Galicia. They failed to gain a single seat. A share of the vote that was little more than three per cent ensured that they would fail, just as they also did in the Basque Country.
What may now dawn on the C's, whose support has been eroding, is that their aspirations to be a national party run up against nationalist interests in specific regions. Even the conservative nationalist instincts in Galicia and the Basque Country appear disinclined to embrace a party which started as a regional Catalonian organisation (with avowed anti-nationalist sentiments) and has attempted to become a national force. Regional parties aren't supposed to behave like this. The C's have got above their station. They are liked less and less. Their time may well have come and gone, leaving Podemos, with its internal divisions, as the genuine "alternative".
Díaz, Feijóo and others will make damn sure it never is.
* This article was written before Sánchez announced that there are to be "primaries" for electing the secretary general, i.e. that he is putting his position to the test.
They most certainly do. More importantly, they say a great deal about the pretenders, one of whom is PSOE; the PSOE that Pedro Sánchez leads. This is not the PSOE of the whole country, however, and the results loosen his grip - already tenuous - ever more. The knives of Andalusia, in the hands of Susana Díaz, are being sharpened on the stone. How long can Sánchez carry on?
Consider the numbers. In Galicia the regional version of PSOE suffered its worst ever result. It ended up with fourteen seats in the regional parliament with slightly less than 18% of the vote in a four-way fight. En Marea, effectively Podemos by another name, also gained fourteen seats but with a higher share of the vote - just over 19%. Both were eclipsed by the Partido Popular. Alberto Núñez Feijóo will continue to govern with an absolute majority.
In the Basque Country, the socialists suffered major losses - seven seats gone, leaving them with nine. The PNV, habitual leaders in the region, have insufficient seats for an overall majority, but could hook up with the PP (or PSOE) and establish a parliamentary majority.
While Feijóo's win in Galicia will be taken as enhancing Mariano Rajoy's moral right to remain as national prime minister, it needs reminding that Galicia is very firm PP territory - and Feijóo territory. The loss of one PP seat in the Basque Country places a rather different spin on things. Perhaps the strongest message to come from the elections, where the PP is concerned, is that Feijóo has strengthened his case for replacing Rajoy.
Rather than a test of public opinion for Rajoy, the elections were a poll on the ambitions of Sánchez and PSOE to attempt to form an "alternative" government of the left. These are surely dashed, if indeed they have ever truly been realistic. Díaz had made it clear that they weren't, given the fact that PSOE have only 85 seats in the national Congress.
A surprise with Sánchez is the fact that he's still in charge. Reflect on the charge sheet. A failed attempt, an awfully failed attempt at investiture, followed by a second election at which PSOE lost more seats in Congress. Yet he still believes he can form a government, seemingly egged on by the likes of Balearic president Francina Armengol into adopting a model of government akin to that in the Balearics - one that quite plainly isn't functioning. Armengol is deluded and so is Sánchez. With the batterings in the Basque Country and Galicia, his time must surely be up.
If this proves to be the case, the PSOE "barons", marshalled by Díaz, will manoeuvre a situation whereby there is a pact with Rajoy and the PP (or possibly with Feijóo and the PP; this may be the price Rajoy has to pay). For Francina Armengol, who must have been observing the results coming in with increasing horror and alarm, such a national manouevre would be terminal. Podemos wouldn't stand for it, while Més seem ever increasingly alienated from Armengol.
If PSOE were the big losers in these two elections, what about Cuidadanos? This party is more and more like an annoying terrier, snapping at the heels of others. It is shooed away but keeps coming back, yapping and yapping but never getting its way. Its leader, Albert Rivera, had been looking at the prospect of a post-election alliance with the PP in Galicia. They failed to gain a single seat. A share of the vote that was little more than three per cent ensured that they would fail, just as they also did in the Basque Country.
What may now dawn on the C's, whose support has been eroding, is that their aspirations to be a national party run up against nationalist interests in specific regions. Even the conservative nationalist instincts in Galicia and the Basque Country appear disinclined to embrace a party which started as a regional Catalonian organisation (with avowed anti-nationalist sentiments) and has attempted to become a national force. Regional parties aren't supposed to behave like this. The C's have got above their station. They are liked less and less. Their time may well have come and gone, leaving Podemos, with its internal divisions, as the genuine "alternative".
Díaz, Feijóo and others will make damn sure it never is.
* This article was written before Sánchez announced that there are to be "primaries" for electing the secretary general, i.e. that he is putting his position to the test.
Sunday, September 25, 2016
The Balearic Not-Government Is Revolting
The government and not-government (aka Podemos and increasingly also Més) indulged in their parliamentary navel-gazing and picked out some unpleasant fluff that has accumulated since June last year. The governmental state of the Balearics, we discovered, was far from the consensual love-in that sweet and friendly Francina has been insisting that it is ever since the fateful day that agreements were signed for the "government of change". So absent is consensus that the Earth Mother, PSOE's health minister Patricia Gómez, can dream up 119 million euros (why 119 and not 120?) for dealing with the decaying pile that is Son Dureta with nary a word in the shell-likes of Més (or Podemos). The Mésites were furious. Not because they're against handing over such a vast sum but because no one had spoken to them. Stamp their feet? Oh yes.
And it got worse. What was the government, in this instance PSOE, doing dropping money-laundering charges against that good old boy, Jaume Matas? Strictly speaking, it wasn't the government of PSOE but the Balearic Attorney's Office. Sweet FA Armengol insisted she hadn't been aware of the attorney's decision, which took some believing, given that the office falls within the ministry of the presidency. The Mésites stamped their feet even harder. The decision was of great political significance, they huffed, and had not been reached through consensus. The navel fluff started to look ever more revolting.
Revolt was indeed in the air. And who better to express it than the Podemos Boot Girl, Laura Camargo (Twitter account @Laurarevolta; description "feminist anti-capitalist"). The Matas decision was "very serious", she declared, and insisted that the attorney put in an appearance in parliament in order to explain himself. Also very serious were the thousands, nay millions of tourists roaming across the fragile landscapes of Majorca and the Balearics. Put the tourist tax up, demanded Her Bootness. And the ranks of not-government were joined by the Mésites in the form of the government's vice-president and tourism minister Biel Barceló. BB responded to Laura's tourist tax demand by announcing that "the price of the ecotax is the tool with which to regulate tourist flows".
So, after all his equivocation and having once said that the tax wouldn't make any difference to tourist numbers, BB finally admitted that it might. If it's high enough. It shouldn't be forgotten that Wild Man Més, David Abril, had some months ago suggested that the tax should have been higher from the outset. What can be expected therefore? Ten euros a night from next year? Twenty? That should sort out the saturation and the collapse of the Palma road network every time there's a spot of rain.
Amidst all the revolt, Francina was able to take herself off and sweetly cut the ribbon at the FAN shopping centre, an event which we were led to believe was to be graced with the presence of Podemos president (speaker) of parliament Xe-Lo Huertas. If she was indeed there, she avoided the cameras. Or perhaps she'd sneaked in to snaffle up some early bargains in Primark. The Podemos take on FAN appeared to be revealed by one of its parliamentary deputies, Salvador Aguilera. He tweeted a question (which was re-tweeted by the anti-capitalist Boot Girl). How much will the campaign for promoting FAN have cost, he asked, adding that the Mallorcan press had "succumbed" to the FAN "phenomenon".
And it got worse. What was the government, in this instance PSOE, doing dropping money-laundering charges against that good old boy, Jaume Matas? Strictly speaking, it wasn't the government of PSOE but the Balearic Attorney's Office. Sweet FA Armengol insisted she hadn't been aware of the attorney's decision, which took some believing, given that the office falls within the ministry of the presidency. The Mésites stamped their feet even harder. The decision was of great political significance, they huffed, and had not been reached through consensus. The navel fluff started to look ever more revolting.
Revolt was indeed in the air. And who better to express it than the Podemos Boot Girl, Laura Camargo (Twitter account @Laurarevolta; description "feminist anti-capitalist"). The Matas decision was "very serious", she declared, and insisted that the attorney put in an appearance in parliament in order to explain himself. Also very serious were the thousands, nay millions of tourists roaming across the fragile landscapes of Majorca and the Balearics. Put the tourist tax up, demanded Her Bootness. And the ranks of not-government were joined by the Mésites in the form of the government's vice-president and tourism minister Biel Barceló. BB responded to Laura's tourist tax demand by announcing that "the price of the ecotax is the tool with which to regulate tourist flows".
So, after all his equivocation and having once said that the tax wouldn't make any difference to tourist numbers, BB finally admitted that it might. If it's high enough. It shouldn't be forgotten that Wild Man Més, David Abril, had some months ago suggested that the tax should have been higher from the outset. What can be expected therefore? Ten euros a night from next year? Twenty? That should sort out the saturation and the collapse of the Palma road network every time there's a spot of rain.
Amidst all the revolt, Francina was able to take herself off and sweetly cut the ribbon at the FAN shopping centre, an event which we were led to believe was to be graced with the presence of Podemos president (speaker) of parliament Xe-Lo Huertas. If she was indeed there, she avoided the cameras. Or perhaps she'd sneaked in to snaffle up some early bargains in Primark. The Podemos take on FAN appeared to be revealed by one of its parliamentary deputies, Salvador Aguilera. He tweeted a question (which was re-tweeted by the anti-capitalist Boot Girl). How much will the campaign for promoting FAN have cost, he asked, adding that the Mallorcan press had "succumbed" to the FAN "phenomenon".
Friday, September 23, 2016
Francina At The Crossroads
Francina Armengol has called for an "urgent" agreement between her party, PSOE, and Podemos in order that there is a change of national government. She said this - and it wasn't the first time by any means - during the course of this week's parliamentary debate, something which the Partido Popular's Marga Prohens described as a confidence debate for Armengol's presidency and government.
Armengol was bound to have made this call. It could well be that she is thoroughly committed to the principle of a PSOE-Podemos alliance at national level. Equally, it could be that she could say nothing else. Her government depends on the relationship that PSOE has with Podemos. It's as simple as that.
For Armengol to have her wish granted, Pedro Sánchez would need to fend off the assaults from significant voices within PSOE. Andalusia's Susana Díaz, seen by many as the real power in PSOE and a likely future leader of the party, has warned Sánchez that PSOE doesn't have the parliamentary clout to be able to form a government. With only 85 seats in Congress, she has noted, the party cannot govern.
In any moral terms it is questionable for a party with slightly less than 25% parliamentary representation to be allowed to govern, but Sánchez still seems as though he might try. Again. Armengol, for her sake, has to hope that he succeeds. She heads a government with an even lower percentage representation, one enabled solely by the partner that is not in government (Podemos with 17% representation).
The pretence that exists with this government was further exposed during the debate. If applause is a mark of support, then it was in short supply, either from Podemos or Més as Armengol defended the "government of change". Ultimately, whatever Armengol says or does, this government is bound inextricably to the fortunes of PSOE nationally. It might be recalled, for example, that Més had at one point appeared to have been prepared to pull out from an agreement following the 2015 regional election. A stumbling-block was the financing of the Balearics. With Sánchez as prime minister, this would all be sorted. It may have seemed in June last year as if a PSOE national government (with whichever other parties in tow) was a goer. In truth, it never was, and PSOE just finds its support (at the ballot box) more on the wane.
Armengol is caught between the rock of national fortunes and the hard place of local difficulties. She couldn't have envisaged tourism becoming the battleground it has. The tourist tax, and the skirmishes over its distribution and purposes, was never destined to leave casualties. Saturation and its fellow tourist traveller, limits, may well do.
Podemos and Més have both affiliated themselves with the "without limits there is no future" manifesto. Podemos's Laura Camargo pointed this out to Armengol. The president instead insists that limits are not a solution. The three parties are poles apart on the issue. They know it, and any observer of the government can recognise it. Rather than the tourist tax being a defining policy of this government, the headless arguments over tourism numbers are defining it. If any senior figures from either Podemos or Més put in an appearance on the anti-tourist route planned for tomorrow in Palma, the game could be as good as up.
The divisions in the government are such that Camargo attacked Armengol for devoting herself to mere amendments of "disastrous policies" pursued by the PP when it was in power. Direction, Camargo asserted, has not been defined. The fact is that the only direction which counts is one determined by Podemos. The relationship with PSOE and PSOE's dependence on Podemos in the Balearics should make Sánchez stop dead in his tracks. It would be no different if there were ever a PSOE-Podemos national alliance. Like Armengol, Sánchez would be a Podemos play thing, ever exposed to its exigencies.
It isn't as if, however, Podemos and Més don't have their own concerns. For Podemos they are also a factor of national developments. The battle royal between Pablo Iglesias and Iñigo Errejón is one which boils down to Errejón's view - and a correct one - that the electorate needs to be able to trust Podemos more. It could otherwise be that Podemos have peaked and that there is only way for the party to go. At local level, there is the business with one of its main figures, Daniel Bachiller, and the funding that his laboratory has been receiving; funding which has seemingly produced no results. Camargo believes there is a "campaign". Others will believe it only appropriate that Bachiller is brought to account.
Més, meanwhile, are contending with the consequences of the June general election alliance with Podemos which spectacularly failed to deliver. Armengol has her problems, but her "partners" have them as well. Each is fighting its own battles, and government is thus diminished.
Armengol was bound to have made this call. It could well be that she is thoroughly committed to the principle of a PSOE-Podemos alliance at national level. Equally, it could be that she could say nothing else. Her government depends on the relationship that PSOE has with Podemos. It's as simple as that.
For Armengol to have her wish granted, Pedro Sánchez would need to fend off the assaults from significant voices within PSOE. Andalusia's Susana Díaz, seen by many as the real power in PSOE and a likely future leader of the party, has warned Sánchez that PSOE doesn't have the parliamentary clout to be able to form a government. With only 85 seats in Congress, she has noted, the party cannot govern.
In any moral terms it is questionable for a party with slightly less than 25% parliamentary representation to be allowed to govern, but Sánchez still seems as though he might try. Again. Armengol, for her sake, has to hope that he succeeds. She heads a government with an even lower percentage representation, one enabled solely by the partner that is not in government (Podemos with 17% representation).
The pretence that exists with this government was further exposed during the debate. If applause is a mark of support, then it was in short supply, either from Podemos or Més as Armengol defended the "government of change". Ultimately, whatever Armengol says or does, this government is bound inextricably to the fortunes of PSOE nationally. It might be recalled, for example, that Més had at one point appeared to have been prepared to pull out from an agreement following the 2015 regional election. A stumbling-block was the financing of the Balearics. With Sánchez as prime minister, this would all be sorted. It may have seemed in June last year as if a PSOE national government (with whichever other parties in tow) was a goer. In truth, it never was, and PSOE just finds its support (at the ballot box) more on the wane.
Armengol is caught between the rock of national fortunes and the hard place of local difficulties. She couldn't have envisaged tourism becoming the battleground it has. The tourist tax, and the skirmishes over its distribution and purposes, was never destined to leave casualties. Saturation and its fellow tourist traveller, limits, may well do.
Podemos and Més have both affiliated themselves with the "without limits there is no future" manifesto. Podemos's Laura Camargo pointed this out to Armengol. The president instead insists that limits are not a solution. The three parties are poles apart on the issue. They know it, and any observer of the government can recognise it. Rather than the tourist tax being a defining policy of this government, the headless arguments over tourism numbers are defining it. If any senior figures from either Podemos or Més put in an appearance on the anti-tourist route planned for tomorrow in Palma, the game could be as good as up.
The divisions in the government are such that Camargo attacked Armengol for devoting herself to mere amendments of "disastrous policies" pursued by the PP when it was in power. Direction, Camargo asserted, has not been defined. The fact is that the only direction which counts is one determined by Podemos. The relationship with PSOE and PSOE's dependence on Podemos in the Balearics should make Sánchez stop dead in his tracks. It would be no different if there were ever a PSOE-Podemos national alliance. Like Armengol, Sánchez would be a Podemos play thing, ever exposed to its exigencies.
It isn't as if, however, Podemos and Més don't have their own concerns. For Podemos they are also a factor of national developments. The battle royal between Pablo Iglesias and Iñigo Errejón is one which boils down to Errejón's view - and a correct one - that the electorate needs to be able to trust Podemos more. It could otherwise be that Podemos have peaked and that there is only way for the party to go. At local level, there is the business with one of its main figures, Daniel Bachiller, and the funding that his laboratory has been receiving; funding which has seemingly produced no results. Camargo believes there is a "campaign". Others will believe it only appropriate that Bachiller is brought to account.
Més, meanwhile, are contending with the consequences of the June general election alliance with Podemos which spectacularly failed to deliver. Armengol has her problems, but her "partners" have them as well. Each is fighting its own battles, and government is thus diminished.
Monday, July 18, 2016
The Mistrust In The Balearic Government
President Armengol is, you feel, clinging on to her post by her fingertips. She's been one of those haranguing Pedro Sánchez into not making any sort of agreement with Rajoy and the PP: it would surely be the end for her, if he were to. Her claims for there to be stable government in the Balearics have long sounded like whistling in the dark to keep up spirits, but with PSOE so wounded, with Sánchez seemingly not knowing which way to turn, the knives are being sharpened.
Alberto Jarabo of Podemos said last week that the "mistrust" of PSOE in the Balearic government remains. What a telling statement, and it has always been there. It was this mistrust that led Podemos to not formally join the government. Podemos has been doing very nicely thank you by being outside government: electorally at any rate, if, that is, one subscribes to the view - which I do - that the alliance with Més at the June election resulted in the total destruction of the Més vote.
Never slow to look for a weak president who can be manipulated, Jarabo hopes that one day Biel Barceló of Més will take over from Armengol. Of course he hopes this, given that Més has seen its support disappear. They're a crafty lot, Podemos.
How is it, though, that there can be an administration built on a lack of trust? Easily, it seems, so long as you are Podemos and willing to pull strings without assuming direct accountability and therefore being contrary to your own political philosophy. Mistrust. Jarabo has said it. We've known all along.
Alberto Jarabo of Podemos said last week that the "mistrust" of PSOE in the Balearic government remains. What a telling statement, and it has always been there. It was this mistrust that led Podemos to not formally join the government. Podemos has been doing very nicely thank you by being outside government: electorally at any rate, if, that is, one subscribes to the view - which I do - that the alliance with Més at the June election resulted in the total destruction of the Més vote.
Never slow to look for a weak president who can be manipulated, Jarabo hopes that one day Biel Barceló of Més will take over from Armengol. Of course he hopes this, given that Més has seen its support disappear. They're a crafty lot, Podemos.
How is it, though, that there can be an administration built on a lack of trust? Easily, it seems, so long as you are Podemos and willing to pull strings without assuming direct accountability and therefore being contrary to your own political philosophy. Mistrust. Jarabo has said it. We've known all along.
Thursday, June 23, 2016
The Imploding Socialists: Spain's election
There's an election on Sunday. If it seems as if it's only yesterday since the last election, that's because it was: well, six months ago anyway. But elections come around so often, you can be forgiven for losing track: Spain appears to nowadays operate on the basis of regular election rather than actual government.
So, what has happened in the intervening months? Not a lot. There was of course the farcical failure to arrive at any accord between the parties that would have allowed someone to be permanent prime minister rather than an acting one. Other than that, however, little has changed. Podemos have acquired a new best friend in the form of the United Left and appear destined to take number two spot in the electors' affections. Otherwise, things are more or less as they were. Chaotic.
Will they be any different after Sunday? No. The chaos will remain but it may be diluted somewhat. That will be if PSOE and Pedro Sánchez decide to let the PP and Mariano Rajoy officially continue. The chances are that this would be as a minority government rather than as a coalition, but who knows for sure? Sánchez doesn't, and he may well be out of the equation anyway. PSOE barons are sharpening their knives, unimpressed by the failure to make any headway in the polls.
But Sánchez is a bit like an England football manager. It makes little or no difference who's in charge. Getting anywhere is bound to end in failure. This wasn't once the case with PSOE, but it has never recovered from having been the party that presided over the start of the economic crisis.
Going into the election, everything is so familiar. What was said before the December election still holds true. There are four main parties, two of whom have disrupted the two-party system and another two who too few people like or trust. The PP and PSOE behemoths have been reduced by the dual thrusts of crisis and corruption, to which can be added some all-round nastiness by the PP as well as the A-word: austerity.
But that, you might think, has shifted somewhat. Isn't Spain all the better economically now? Better even than it was six months ago? Maybe, but there are too many voters who are seeing nothing of the recovery and too many who have come to despise the PP for austerity and have thus been seduced by the promised land of Podemos or by the mini-me PP of Ciudadanos.
That isn't wholly accurate of course. The C's are a shiny, bright vehicle compared with the rusting heap that the PP is contriving to just about keep on the road. The C's are also all for the "citizens" - they couldn't be anything else, given that their name means that - and so against corruption. They have some bright young stars, such as their leader, Albert Rivera. Yet somehow they seem to have got stuck. Contrast them with Podemos, who keep managing to move forward: there are some clever bastards in the Podemos ranks, and they have even managed to disguise the disagreements that exist in those ranks.
Alas for Podemos, Pablo Iglesias will not emerge as prime minister. Or it would take a seismic event for him to become so. Perhaps the defenestration of Sánchez might be it. He surely won't survive this second election and another farcical failure to become premier, but would a successor look upon Podemos with any more positive light? Very doubtful. PSOE have been totally humiliated and continue to be. The ultimate humiliation would be to serve in a government under Iglesias. It won't happen.
Closer to home, i.e. Mallorca and the Balearics, there is further humiliation to come. Francina Armengol, head of an unstable government for all that she insists that it is the opposite, must know that the fates are conspiring against her. PSOE in the Balearics seem destined to come third, just as PSOE nationally will. Podemos will become the major force in the "pact". There will be a reappraisal and an even more vicious one if Sánchez allows Rajoy to stop acting and start being premier again.
So what will happen to Francina? Possibly nothing. It may well suit Podemos to carry on with how things are. They can happily continue to dictate policy: even more so, if the election goes the way it is expected to. Francina would therefore seek to assure the "citizens" that there is "normality" and "stability". Though she might not believe it, others in PSOE do. For all her brave talk, it is PSOE that Podemos have been attacking all along, wishing to destroy wishy-washy socialism with the real thing. Podemos can bide their time, believing that Sánchez support for the PP will lead PSOE to completely implode.
So, what has happened in the intervening months? Not a lot. There was of course the farcical failure to arrive at any accord between the parties that would have allowed someone to be permanent prime minister rather than an acting one. Other than that, however, little has changed. Podemos have acquired a new best friend in the form of the United Left and appear destined to take number two spot in the electors' affections. Otherwise, things are more or less as they were. Chaotic.
Will they be any different after Sunday? No. The chaos will remain but it may be diluted somewhat. That will be if PSOE and Pedro Sánchez decide to let the PP and Mariano Rajoy officially continue. The chances are that this would be as a minority government rather than as a coalition, but who knows for sure? Sánchez doesn't, and he may well be out of the equation anyway. PSOE barons are sharpening their knives, unimpressed by the failure to make any headway in the polls.
But Sánchez is a bit like an England football manager. It makes little or no difference who's in charge. Getting anywhere is bound to end in failure. This wasn't once the case with PSOE, but it has never recovered from having been the party that presided over the start of the economic crisis.
Going into the election, everything is so familiar. What was said before the December election still holds true. There are four main parties, two of whom have disrupted the two-party system and another two who too few people like or trust. The PP and PSOE behemoths have been reduced by the dual thrusts of crisis and corruption, to which can be added some all-round nastiness by the PP as well as the A-word: austerity.
But that, you might think, has shifted somewhat. Isn't Spain all the better economically now? Better even than it was six months ago? Maybe, but there are too many voters who are seeing nothing of the recovery and too many who have come to despise the PP for austerity and have thus been seduced by the promised land of Podemos or by the mini-me PP of Ciudadanos.
That isn't wholly accurate of course. The C's are a shiny, bright vehicle compared with the rusting heap that the PP is contriving to just about keep on the road. The C's are also all for the "citizens" - they couldn't be anything else, given that their name means that - and so against corruption. They have some bright young stars, such as their leader, Albert Rivera. Yet somehow they seem to have got stuck. Contrast them with Podemos, who keep managing to move forward: there are some clever bastards in the Podemos ranks, and they have even managed to disguise the disagreements that exist in those ranks.
Alas for Podemos, Pablo Iglesias will not emerge as prime minister. Or it would take a seismic event for him to become so. Perhaps the defenestration of Sánchez might be it. He surely won't survive this second election and another farcical failure to become premier, but would a successor look upon Podemos with any more positive light? Very doubtful. PSOE have been totally humiliated and continue to be. The ultimate humiliation would be to serve in a government under Iglesias. It won't happen.
Closer to home, i.e. Mallorca and the Balearics, there is further humiliation to come. Francina Armengol, head of an unstable government for all that she insists that it is the opposite, must know that the fates are conspiring against her. PSOE in the Balearics seem destined to come third, just as PSOE nationally will. Podemos will become the major force in the "pact". There will be a reappraisal and an even more vicious one if Sánchez allows Rajoy to stop acting and start being premier again.
So what will happen to Francina? Possibly nothing. It may well suit Podemos to carry on with how things are. They can happily continue to dictate policy: even more so, if the election goes the way it is expected to. Francina would therefore seek to assure the "citizens" that there is "normality" and "stability". Though she might not believe it, others in PSOE do. For all her brave talk, it is PSOE that Podemos have been attacking all along, wishing to destroy wishy-washy socialism with the real thing. Podemos can bide their time, believing that Sánchez support for the PP will lead PSOE to completely implode.
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