Living By Numbers

So the Balearics did enjoy a record year. Between January and September there was a plus 6% increase in the number of visitors (11,5 million in total - 8.3 million to Mallorca by air). That’s the good bit, but, as today’s “Diario” points out, there was a fall in spend of seven per cent. This confirms what has been widely observed during the season. If the trend this year has been for less spend, might this trend continue? While 2008 is still expected to be another good year, in terms of numbers, the negative effect of higher mortgages and of the credit crisis is likely to be more significant next year. One cannot help but form the impression that a decrease in spend is an ongoing trend.

All-inclusives are widely blamed for this decrease, but I’ve been here before; they are not the only cause. There would appear to be some good news in this regard for traders. According to more figures, there has been a backward movement in the AI offer during the high season; it represents only 2.5% of the total hotel offer on the Balearics. This may be so, but there are areas of AI concentration. In the “Diario” report, mention is made of the Llevant and north of Mallorca. It perhaps depends how one reads the report, but it seems to say that there are eight establishments in these two areas combined which offer AI ( it could also be read as meaning eight in the north). Llevant is the area of the east of the island from Artà down to Manacor. North is Alcúdia, Pollensa and Can Picafort. Whatever the meaning, to suggest that there are only eight hotels offering AI is misleading. (The information comes from the Balearic Government.)

Take one example - the Iberostar chain of hotels. Have a look at its website. How many hotels does it have in Alcúdia, Playa de Muro and Can Picafort? Eight. How many of its hotels in Alcúdia, Playa de Muro and Can Picafort offer AI? Eight. It is not the only form of board, but it is most certainly on offer. I seem to think that in at least one of these Iberostar hotels, AI is mandatory in high season. So that is eight hotels of just one group.

There is a definition issue here. When the report speaks of eight establishments, it means eight that offer AI and only AI - exclusive all-inclusive in other words (which might be considered a contradiction in terms depending - again - on how you read it). Generally though the picture regarding all-inclusives is more positive - for those who would rather see the back of them. The total number of exclusive AI hotels is 36 in the whole of the Balearics.This figure is down, as is that for hotels which offer AI as an option (such as the Iberostars), but it should be noted that these hotels represent 13.4% of the total. The number may be falling, but it is still significant. And that percentage only hints at an average - where the concentrations are, the figure could be, and I suspect is, quite a bit higher.

There is another issue. In Alcúdia, for instance, some of the biggest hotels are all-inclusive - exclusive all-inclusive. Even one that is not exclusive - Bellevue - has a substantial AI offer; 30% is what one hears. Bellevue has nearly 4200 beds - 1260 AI possibly. Lagomonte from the same group (Hotetur) is AI only - 542 beds. The three Club Mac hotels - Jupiter, Saturn, Mars - are exclusive AI: 2000 or so beds between them. The Condesa de la Bahía is exclusive AI - 1000. The point I’m making is that between six hotels, the number of AI guests is around 4860. I have worked out, based on 47 other establishments in Alcúdia, that the average hotel size is 445 - just under 21000 places*. In other words, 11.3% of the total number of hotels in the sample accounts for nearly 19% of the total number of places - that’s 19% on an exclusive all-inclusive basis (the Bellevue 30% treated as exclusive). Add on those guests taking up AI at other hotels, and the figure rises. To what, who knows?

The thing is one reads that the number of AIs is only 2.5% (or 13.4% depending on definition), and it maybe doesn’t sound a lot, but break it down by hotel, and as importantly by number of guests, and the figure changes dramatically. Statistics - who’d believe ‘em.

* Without wishing to get too detailed: The total sample was 53; Bellevue was double-counted in the 6 and the 47, and its non-AI figure is included in the 21000. (6 of 53 = 11.3%; 4860 of 25860 = 18.8%.)


QUIZ
Yesterday - Robbie, who else. Today’s title - song by a Brit group, not very successful, sort of a Human League-ish type.

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