The significance of the presence of Carles Puigdemont in Brussels goes beyond the fact that it is the seat of power for a confederated institution which has proved to be toothless in face of political crisis in one of its constituent member states. Brussels is the capital of a country with one of the more peculiar structures in the EU. What is Belgium? Like Spain it is a kingdom. Like Spain it has its cultural and linguistic differences and tensions. Unlike Spain these are even more influential and divisive. The Flemings and the Walloons are essentially separate peoples. Their political affiliations and the pressures for separatism, especially in Flanders, have created a country that in a sense is a country in name alone. It is a form of federal state but one with an appearance of the confederated state - the centre is basically subordinate to the constituent parts, which is the theory under which the European Union operates: theory if not always practice.
Carles Puigdemont was interviewed by the French-speaking Le Soir. This in itself was symbolic. French has far more in common with Catalan than Dutch does. In Belgium, as in Spain, there is a linguistic choice to be made. The language speaks volumes, and it shouts on behalf of one form of political structure or another. In Catalan, however, this isn't as sharply defined as it is with the Flemings. Carles Puigdemont knows this, even if he might not admit it. Mariano Rajoy most certainly knows this. The silent majority will come forth and let their voice be heard four days before Christmas. So he hopes.
Puigdemont revealed to Le Soir that he is not averse to "another relationship with Spain". This would be an "alternative to independence". Back in Barcelona, there would have been the sound of ardent supporters of independence muttering dark comments about a Puigdemont vacillation or climb-down. To others, it might just have sounded like a rare dose of reality creeping into the unreal monster of ill-defined confusion that Puigdemont has helped to create.
But what was he talking about? The independence declaration has some comparisons with Brexit. A total lack of preparedness followed by a search for something meaningful, the need to extract a solution from the havoc caused by the ignorance of consequences. Brexit, replete with its absurd posturing and with its path littered with the jibes, aspirations and ambitions of chancers such as Johnson, stumbles daily more deeply into an intellectual abyss of the unknowing. The extraction of solutions is hindered by mutual exclusivity. Likewise, Catalonia. Until, for both problems, someone ventures the possibility of a third-way solution. Ventures it but can't define it.
A solution of sorts is federalism. But what is federalism? It operates in numerous states, yet even in that most federal of nations, the United States, it has never truly been defined. The Balearics president has made many a reference to a federal model for Spain, but what does she take this to mean? What does Pedro Sánchez, the national leader of PSOE, take it to mean? He is also an advocate, but one never learns what this would look like, what this would be.
The point is that Spain already bears many of the hallmarks of the federal state. At its most basic level it means the sharing of power between the state and its components. Crucially, however, there is the money angle. Can the Catalonia crisis be styled as the result of a disagreement over tax-raising powers? Some will argue that it can be and that had Madrid been more amenable and granted Catalonia a Basque-type arrangement, the independence movement would have been nipped in the bud.
But this is too simplistic. Puigdemont has highlighted the fact that in 2010 the Constitutional Court invalidated certain articles in the Catalonia statute of autonomy. At that time, there were a mere fourteen members of the Catalan parliament who were fervent supporters of independence. Yet he too is being simplistic. What then happened was that Artur Mas, needing to prop up his presidency and under assault for austerity measures, took a risk with an election. This signalled the sea change, as also did the emergence of the alternative parties. Independence took on new life, with Mas committing himself to it because he had no other choice but to, if he wanted to stay in power.
Now that Catalonia and Spain are where they are, the genie can't be put back. There has to be a viable solution. Politicians cannot be allowed to wallow in prison; this is an obscenity. But what possible accord or alternative is attainable? Rajoy is speaking about Constitutional reform to return powers to the state. He has fired a broadside against his own foreign affairs minister, Alfonso Dastis, who has intimated that a different type of reform - one that potentially recognises independence if the vote on 21 December were to hint at this - could be possible.
An alternative, but what sort? Rajoy seems ever less inclined to consider a more sharply defined federal regime or even a confederation which would enfeeble the central government. Carles, what are you talking about?
Showing posts with label Federalism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federalism. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
Tuesday, December 06, 2016
Reforming Spain's Constitution?
How many of you are aware that the Spanish constitution makes possible, albeit hypothetically, the merger of two of Spain's regions - the Basque Country and Navarre? While radical elements long for such a union, the likelihood of it ever happening is all but zero. But the fact that the theoretical possibility even exists reflects historical anomalies that can creep into constitutions. In Germany there is one such. Bavaria, hypothetically, could declare itself independent.
These examples reveal that constitutions, generally considered to be inviolate, contain aspects that may or do require reform. As a form of pact between state and citizen, a constitution shouldn't necessarily remain set in stone. Circumstances do, after all, change, and where Spain is concerned, the constitution has been subject to more or less constant amendment over some two hundred years.
During the nineteenth century, there were various attempts at revision. The first actual constitution was that of 1812, a manifesto of liberalism that was doomed to failure but which was to be a fundamental factor in that century's development. Ferdinand VII revoked it and thus ushered in the clashes between liberals (joined later by republicans) on one side and the conservative monarchists on the other. Both parties were rife with their own intrigues and differences. From the conservatives came Carlism, a Catholic fundamentalism which fostered civil wars. The upheavals through the nineteenth century and into the twentieth century bred what was to become Francoism. The 1812 constitution, it might be said, had been the unwitting launch pad for a dictatorship which naturally abandoned the constitution of the Second Republic.
The current constitution, dating from 1978, has been amended twice. Both the amendments were responses to influences outside Spain's borders. In 1992, European citizens in Spain were allowed to vote in and stand for municipal elections. There was little or no disagreement with this. Five years ago, there was dissent. Budgetary stability, demanded by Brussels, became a constitutional mandate. It was seen as a stitch-up between the two main political parties - the Partido Popular and PSOE. Austerity was in effect enshrined into the constitution. This very act was as influential as any other in bringing about the rise of Podemos, whose targets included austerity and what was perceived as the corrupt, cosy co-existence of the casta parties - the PP and PSOE.
Mariano Rajoy faced calls for constitutional reforms during his first period in office, all of which he ignored. Then, prior to the first election last December, he surprised many by announcing that he was open to reform. Getting rid of the Basque Country-Navarre hypothesis was one item on the agenda, a seemingly obscure one but also important. Rajoy inferred that territorial issues would be considered. If that had been intended as a sort of sop to Catalonia, then it had no effect.
Rajoy's shaky hold on government gives this Constitution Day greater relevance than others over the past almost forty years. The Catalonia question and the legality of a referendum dominate the debate in which Podemos (and its friends) support the principle of separatism if a majority wishes it, while the PP and Ciudadanos want no truck with the idea. PSOE, its powers lessened, has an idea for a federal model, one that it has never satisfactorily elucidated. This, at least, was what Pedro Sánchez had been advocating.
There are other demands for reform. Juan Pedro Yllanes, the judge who now sits in Congress on behalf of Podemos in the Balearics, is one to call for a truly independent judiciary. In principle it is independent, but as an example of how it is deemed not to be, Rights International Spain last year referred the judicial system to the United Nations special rapporteur on independence; government meddling was the reason for doing so. Lurking in the wings is the monarchy and a referendum on that. Podemos's charter makes clear the party's demands for referendums on various constitutional matters, but then Podemos isn't in government.
A year ago, Rajoy said that a request from union leaders for Congress to debate constitutional reform was both sensible and necessary. How true he might now be to his words will be put to the test. He says he's open to more talks with Catalonia but not on independence. What the "territorial issues" might therefore be is anyone's guess; so are any other potential reforms.
In the Balearics the main call for reform is for the Sánchez federal model. Francina Armengol has referred to this many times, but her overriding concern is financing, something which doesn't require constitutional change. Rajoy knows that there is pressure for financial reform for the regions. He may feel that that this is a step worth taking in easing pressure to alter the constitution. He is, obviously, a conservative, for whom constitutional reform would be largely anathema, much as he might have said that a debate is necessary.
These examples reveal that constitutions, generally considered to be inviolate, contain aspects that may or do require reform. As a form of pact between state and citizen, a constitution shouldn't necessarily remain set in stone. Circumstances do, after all, change, and where Spain is concerned, the constitution has been subject to more or less constant amendment over some two hundred years.
During the nineteenth century, there were various attempts at revision. The first actual constitution was that of 1812, a manifesto of liberalism that was doomed to failure but which was to be a fundamental factor in that century's development. Ferdinand VII revoked it and thus ushered in the clashes between liberals (joined later by republicans) on one side and the conservative monarchists on the other. Both parties were rife with their own intrigues and differences. From the conservatives came Carlism, a Catholic fundamentalism which fostered civil wars. The upheavals through the nineteenth century and into the twentieth century bred what was to become Francoism. The 1812 constitution, it might be said, had been the unwitting launch pad for a dictatorship which naturally abandoned the constitution of the Second Republic.
The current constitution, dating from 1978, has been amended twice. Both the amendments were responses to influences outside Spain's borders. In 1992, European citizens in Spain were allowed to vote in and stand for municipal elections. There was little or no disagreement with this. Five years ago, there was dissent. Budgetary stability, demanded by Brussels, became a constitutional mandate. It was seen as a stitch-up between the two main political parties - the Partido Popular and PSOE. Austerity was in effect enshrined into the constitution. This very act was as influential as any other in bringing about the rise of Podemos, whose targets included austerity and what was perceived as the corrupt, cosy co-existence of the casta parties - the PP and PSOE.
Mariano Rajoy faced calls for constitutional reforms during his first period in office, all of which he ignored. Then, prior to the first election last December, he surprised many by announcing that he was open to reform. Getting rid of the Basque Country-Navarre hypothesis was one item on the agenda, a seemingly obscure one but also important. Rajoy inferred that territorial issues would be considered. If that had been intended as a sort of sop to Catalonia, then it had no effect.
Rajoy's shaky hold on government gives this Constitution Day greater relevance than others over the past almost forty years. The Catalonia question and the legality of a referendum dominate the debate in which Podemos (and its friends) support the principle of separatism if a majority wishes it, while the PP and Ciudadanos want no truck with the idea. PSOE, its powers lessened, has an idea for a federal model, one that it has never satisfactorily elucidated. This, at least, was what Pedro Sánchez had been advocating.
There are other demands for reform. Juan Pedro Yllanes, the judge who now sits in Congress on behalf of Podemos in the Balearics, is one to call for a truly independent judiciary. In principle it is independent, but as an example of how it is deemed not to be, Rights International Spain last year referred the judicial system to the United Nations special rapporteur on independence; government meddling was the reason for doing so. Lurking in the wings is the monarchy and a referendum on that. Podemos's charter makes clear the party's demands for referendums on various constitutional matters, but then Podemos isn't in government.
A year ago, Rajoy said that a request from union leaders for Congress to debate constitutional reform was both sensible and necessary. How true he might now be to his words will be put to the test. He says he's open to more talks with Catalonia but not on independence. What the "territorial issues" might therefore be is anyone's guess; so are any other potential reforms.
In the Balearics the main call for reform is for the Sánchez federal model. Francina Armengol has referred to this many times, but her overriding concern is financing, something which doesn't require constitutional change. Rajoy knows that there is pressure for financial reform for the regions. He may feel that that this is a step worth taking in easing pressure to alter the constitution. He is, obviously, a conservative, for whom constitutional reform would be largely anathema, much as he might have said that a debate is necessary.
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Forty-Five Minutes Is A Long Time In Politics
So, though she wasn't officially yet president, Francina Armengol made her first presidential speech on Monday. Marga Prohens, for the Partido Popular, condemned it for having been, among other things, "short". It was around 45 minutes long. How long would Marga have liked? An hour, two hours, a whole day? Isn't there something about presentations, that an audience pays attention for the first fifteen minutes or so and then falls asleep until it sounds as though things are winding up, at which point the audience is wide awake again and desperately hoping that the end is indeed nigh? Forty-five minutes sound like around thirty minutes too many, especially when the whole thing could be done by sending round a circular with bullet points and skipping the whole speech bit. Tourist tax, yes. Repealing TIL trilingual teaching, yes. Building massive great retail warehouses all over the Tramuntana, no.
There again, there was a need for some nuance, i.e. some justification for Francina's Damascene conversion to many of the ways of Més and Podemos. Equivocal she had previously been on the tourist tax. Preferable it had been had the horse-trading not given Més and Biel Barceló the gift horse of tourism. As this is the stable where tourism will now reside, one of a rundown old property for which no permission will be forthcoming for conversion to, say, a boutique hotel, Francina was left with little choice but to have joined the eco-nationalists. Tourist tax it will be and it will regenerate the land, make it sustainable and Majorca will be restored to pre-industrial revolution days.
This is of course an exaggeration but my God, talk about lighting the blue touch paper and waiting. Incandescence will greet such incandescence. There will be rage, and even now the travel journalists of "The Sun" and "Bild" will be sharpening their pencils to warn of rip-off Mallorca or such like.
Francina, in the homely fashion that we were exposed to on her having become president of the Council of Mallorca in 2007 when she announced that her door would always be open, went even further this time. So homely is she now that the presidential HQ will be like "home" for the teachers. What does this mean? Will they be able to simply wander into the Consolat de la Mar, help themselves to the contents of the presidential fridge, then stretch out on the sofa and switch the telly on? Well no, but they will be assured of Mother Francina's comforting presence on the sofa while they tell her how to rewrite education legislation.
At least with TIL Francina had come up with this herself. It was PSOE policy and so not one driven by (demanded by) Més or Podemos. So much has been though. Hence, the road to the Damascus of the Consolat de la Mar is littered with transparency (a whole ministry indeed) and with democratic regeneration, part of which, it would appear, is that the islands' councils are going to be made into their own governments. Suddenly, federalism is on everyone's lips, if by everyone one means Pedro Sanchez, the national leader of PSOE, and now his Balearic acolyte. Més may not have taken kindly to Sanchez having the Spanish flag on stage with him with the other week, but they will have taken kindly to the Balearic federalism agenda. Indeed, they probably wrote it. Més have long been advocates of beefed-up island councils, and now they have two of them to run for themselves - Mallorca's and Menorca's.
You would have expected Marga Prohens to have been less than fulsome with her praise of the Armengol speech. There was in fact no praise at all, only criticism. But apart from the speech having been too short, Marga did raise one or two pertinent questions. Like, how are you going to pay to, for instance, guarantee everyone has a minimum income whether in employment or not? Resources are what resources are, she pointed out helpfully. Governments cannot live by tourist taxes alone, she might have added, but then there is all this business with the financing of the Balearics from the state coffers. This is hardcore Més and Podemos territory. Hand over the cash, Madrid, and we'll pay off everyone's mortgage. Or something like that.
So, thus spake Francina, a Zarathustra for the political new age, turning not traditional morality on its head but traditional politics. Strangely though, she said that she was not someone who was forming part of a clamour for change, even if she is about to preside over it. But then, maybe this wasn't so strange. Does she indeed believe in all this? It was a speech worked from the back by Biel Barceló and Alberto Jarabo. How long might it take for the "pact" to unravel? Forty-five minutes?
Index for June 2015
Before and after: how Mallorca changed - 15 June 2015
Bellevue Alcúdia: Spanish students' holidays - 27 June 2015
Calonge - battle in 1715 - 16 June 2015
Canamunt, Canavall and fiesta - 10 June 2015
Corruption and elections - 1 June 2015
Fiesta programmes and politics - 25 June 2015
Fiestas and cultural interest - 19 June 2015
Francina Armengol investiture - 30 June 2015
FIFA, Spanish football and corruption - 4 June 2015
Hotels rush to legalise places - 13 June 2015
Investiture of mayors - 14 June 2015
Lloseta shoes - 7 June 2015
Mallorquín, Catalan and the language argument - 9 June 2015
Manacor: fiesta mule - 11 June 2015
Més and the sofa - 3 June 2015
Miquel Àngel March - 22 June 2015
Musical tradition, Mallorca - 29 June 2015
Partido Popular rebellion against Bauzá - 28 June 2015
Political change and the Church - 17 June 2015
Proportional representation - 24 June 2015
Sa Pobla and the potato - 8 June 2015
Sant Joan, Night of Fire - 23 June 2015
Sant Joan Pelós, Felanitx - 21 June 2015
Sóller tram and uniqueness - 5 June 2015
Toni Catany Foundation - 12 June 2015
Tourism and new administrations in Mallorca - 20 June 2015
Tourism industry and uncertainty - 6 June 2015
Tramuntana mountains and tourism - 18 June 2015
Unknown saints - 26 June 2015
There again, there was a need for some nuance, i.e. some justification for Francina's Damascene conversion to many of the ways of Més and Podemos. Equivocal she had previously been on the tourist tax. Preferable it had been had the horse-trading not given Més and Biel Barceló the gift horse of tourism. As this is the stable where tourism will now reside, one of a rundown old property for which no permission will be forthcoming for conversion to, say, a boutique hotel, Francina was left with little choice but to have joined the eco-nationalists. Tourist tax it will be and it will regenerate the land, make it sustainable and Majorca will be restored to pre-industrial revolution days.
This is of course an exaggeration but my God, talk about lighting the blue touch paper and waiting. Incandescence will greet such incandescence. There will be rage, and even now the travel journalists of "The Sun" and "Bild" will be sharpening their pencils to warn of rip-off Mallorca or such like.
Francina, in the homely fashion that we were exposed to on her having become president of the Council of Mallorca in 2007 when she announced that her door would always be open, went even further this time. So homely is she now that the presidential HQ will be like "home" for the teachers. What does this mean? Will they be able to simply wander into the Consolat de la Mar, help themselves to the contents of the presidential fridge, then stretch out on the sofa and switch the telly on? Well no, but they will be assured of Mother Francina's comforting presence on the sofa while they tell her how to rewrite education legislation.
At least with TIL Francina had come up with this herself. It was PSOE policy and so not one driven by (demanded by) Més or Podemos. So much has been though. Hence, the road to the Damascus of the Consolat de la Mar is littered with transparency (a whole ministry indeed) and with democratic regeneration, part of which, it would appear, is that the islands' councils are going to be made into their own governments. Suddenly, federalism is on everyone's lips, if by everyone one means Pedro Sanchez, the national leader of PSOE, and now his Balearic acolyte. Més may not have taken kindly to Sanchez having the Spanish flag on stage with him with the other week, but they will have taken kindly to the Balearic federalism agenda. Indeed, they probably wrote it. Més have long been advocates of beefed-up island councils, and now they have two of them to run for themselves - Mallorca's and Menorca's.
You would have expected Marga Prohens to have been less than fulsome with her praise of the Armengol speech. There was in fact no praise at all, only criticism. But apart from the speech having been too short, Marga did raise one or two pertinent questions. Like, how are you going to pay to, for instance, guarantee everyone has a minimum income whether in employment or not? Resources are what resources are, she pointed out helpfully. Governments cannot live by tourist taxes alone, she might have added, but then there is all this business with the financing of the Balearics from the state coffers. This is hardcore Més and Podemos territory. Hand over the cash, Madrid, and we'll pay off everyone's mortgage. Or something like that.
So, thus spake Francina, a Zarathustra for the political new age, turning not traditional morality on its head but traditional politics. Strangely though, she said that she was not someone who was forming part of a clamour for change, even if she is about to preside over it. But then, maybe this wasn't so strange. Does she indeed believe in all this? It was a speech worked from the back by Biel Barceló and Alberto Jarabo. How long might it take for the "pact" to unravel? Forty-five minutes?
Index for June 2015
Before and after: how Mallorca changed - 15 June 2015
Bellevue Alcúdia: Spanish students' holidays - 27 June 2015
Calonge - battle in 1715 - 16 June 2015
Canamunt, Canavall and fiesta - 10 June 2015
Corruption and elections - 1 June 2015
Fiesta programmes and politics - 25 June 2015
Fiestas and cultural interest - 19 June 2015
Francina Armengol investiture - 30 June 2015
FIFA, Spanish football and corruption - 4 June 2015
Hotels rush to legalise places - 13 June 2015
Investiture of mayors - 14 June 2015
Lloseta shoes - 7 June 2015
Mallorquín, Catalan and the language argument - 9 June 2015
Manacor: fiesta mule - 11 June 2015
Més and the sofa - 3 June 2015
Miquel Àngel March - 22 June 2015
Musical tradition, Mallorca - 29 June 2015
Partido Popular rebellion against Bauzá - 28 June 2015
Political change and the Church - 17 June 2015
Proportional representation - 24 June 2015
Sa Pobla and the potato - 8 June 2015
Sant Joan, Night of Fire - 23 June 2015
Sant Joan Pelós, Felanitx - 21 June 2015
Sóller tram and uniqueness - 5 June 2015
Toni Catany Foundation - 12 June 2015
Tourism and new administrations in Mallorca - 20 June 2015
Tourism industry and uncertainty - 6 June 2015
Tramuntana mountains and tourism - 18 June 2015
Unknown saints - 26 June 2015
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Catalonia: One big mess
As an example of an exercise in mass opinion polling, the Catalonia not-the-referendum has signalled huge support for the "sí" camp. Yes, we want independence. Now, Sr. Rajoy, let us have it. Or at least let us have a real referendum and not a pretend one.
Rajoy isn't about to agree to this, though were he to and to therefore have gained sufficient support to have changed the Constitution, the result might well be quite different. The 80% in favour of independence were culled from 2.2 million voters, approximately therefore one third of all those who were eligible. In terms of participation the not-the-referendum can only be described as a form of opinion poll and one, moreover, that had an in-built bias thanks to the almost total absence of a "no" campaign and to a Catalan media which, for the most part, came down firmly on the side of Artur Mas and his referendum co-conspirator, Oriol Junqueras.
The result proves nothing other than that 80% of 2.2 million people said yes. It is a percentage greatly in excess of that which regular opinion polls indicate to be the actual level of support for independence. In a real referendum the dynamic would be different and the turnout would also be different. Mas would be quite wrong to believe that independence is genuinely what the majority of Catalonians want.
So, why did he go ahead with the not-the-referendum? He had to in order to save face, having conceded that a genuine referendum was not legal (something which he knew all along). But he also had to as a way of highlighting the sheer lack of any movement in attitude on behalf of the Rajoy government. Its response to the very act of the poll on Sunday was to invoke the courts and to have the police look into who had authorised the use of schools etc. to be polling stations.
Mas argues that he has Catalonian law on his side and this allowed for the not-the-referendum to take place, but regardless of the law, be it that of Catalonia or that of the Constitution, why would the Rajoy government now seek to have the courts decide whether an illegal act has taken place which could lead to prosecution of Mas and others? It is petty, because the poll is not legally binding, cannot be legally binding and only serves as an expression of sentiment of a minority of Catalonians.
What really agitates Rajoy is that the 80% vote boxes him into a corner. To even now negotiate with Mas would appear to be a climbdown and a loss of his face. To agree to a referendum would mean a complete loss of any credibility he retains, while to arrive at agreement would require support at the Cortes for constitutional change that would be almost unimaginable. He would know that a legitimate referendum might well turn out differently, but he can't put that to the test. He has nowhere to go except to the courts. And what good will that do him? It will only reinforce sentiment against him.
Though Rajoy now finds himself in a corner, it was Mas who got there first. It was his foolhardiness in calling an election that he didn't need to which got him to where he now is. That election cost his CiU party seats at the expense of Junqueras's radical independentist ERC who were thus brought into an uneasy coalition in which Mas had little option but to adopt a more aggressive attitude towards independence than he might otherwise have done. It can't be stressed too often that what Mas had really sought was a re-negotiation of Catalonia's finances with the state, and it was a refusal by Rajoy which triggered off the process which resulted in Sunday's not-the-referendum.
Where, therefore, might this now lead, other than to the courts? The leader of PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, might hold the key. His party has been as against independence as the Partido Popular. A solution, perhaps the only solution, is a reform of the whole relationship between the state, Catalonia and the other regions, i.e. a fully federal Spain. It is one that PSOE has recently come to accept, but neither Rajoy nor Mas, for different reasons, has.
Federalism might, for the more radically independentist-minded, now seem like a fudge, but a way has to be sought to combat what is clearly a deeply divided Catalonian society and the ambitions of any other region to seek independence (in truth only maybe the Basques). Both Rajoy and Mas have to share the blame for what has come to pass but both could find a way out of the mess, and a reform on federalist lines with thus greater self-governing powers might well be the only way out.
Rajoy isn't about to agree to this, though were he to and to therefore have gained sufficient support to have changed the Constitution, the result might well be quite different. The 80% in favour of independence were culled from 2.2 million voters, approximately therefore one third of all those who were eligible. In terms of participation the not-the-referendum can only be described as a form of opinion poll and one, moreover, that had an in-built bias thanks to the almost total absence of a "no" campaign and to a Catalan media which, for the most part, came down firmly on the side of Artur Mas and his referendum co-conspirator, Oriol Junqueras.
The result proves nothing other than that 80% of 2.2 million people said yes. It is a percentage greatly in excess of that which regular opinion polls indicate to be the actual level of support for independence. In a real referendum the dynamic would be different and the turnout would also be different. Mas would be quite wrong to believe that independence is genuinely what the majority of Catalonians want.
So, why did he go ahead with the not-the-referendum? He had to in order to save face, having conceded that a genuine referendum was not legal (something which he knew all along). But he also had to as a way of highlighting the sheer lack of any movement in attitude on behalf of the Rajoy government. Its response to the very act of the poll on Sunday was to invoke the courts and to have the police look into who had authorised the use of schools etc. to be polling stations.
Mas argues that he has Catalonian law on his side and this allowed for the not-the-referendum to take place, but regardless of the law, be it that of Catalonia or that of the Constitution, why would the Rajoy government now seek to have the courts decide whether an illegal act has taken place which could lead to prosecution of Mas and others? It is petty, because the poll is not legally binding, cannot be legally binding and only serves as an expression of sentiment of a minority of Catalonians.
What really agitates Rajoy is that the 80% vote boxes him into a corner. To even now negotiate with Mas would appear to be a climbdown and a loss of his face. To agree to a referendum would mean a complete loss of any credibility he retains, while to arrive at agreement would require support at the Cortes for constitutional change that would be almost unimaginable. He would know that a legitimate referendum might well turn out differently, but he can't put that to the test. He has nowhere to go except to the courts. And what good will that do him? It will only reinforce sentiment against him.
Though Rajoy now finds himself in a corner, it was Mas who got there first. It was his foolhardiness in calling an election that he didn't need to which got him to where he now is. That election cost his CiU party seats at the expense of Junqueras's radical independentist ERC who were thus brought into an uneasy coalition in which Mas had little option but to adopt a more aggressive attitude towards independence than he might otherwise have done. It can't be stressed too often that what Mas had really sought was a re-negotiation of Catalonia's finances with the state, and it was a refusal by Rajoy which triggered off the process which resulted in Sunday's not-the-referendum.
Where, therefore, might this now lead, other than to the courts? The leader of PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, might hold the key. His party has been as against independence as the Partido Popular. A solution, perhaps the only solution, is a reform of the whole relationship between the state, Catalonia and the other regions, i.e. a fully federal Spain. It is one that PSOE has recently come to accept, but neither Rajoy nor Mas, for different reasons, has.
Federalism might, for the more radically independentist-minded, now seem like a fudge, but a way has to be sought to combat what is clearly a deeply divided Catalonian society and the ambitions of any other region to seek independence (in truth only maybe the Basques). Both Rajoy and Mas have to share the blame for what has come to pass but both could find a way out of the mess, and a reform on federalist lines with thus greater self-governing powers might well be the only way out.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
