King For A New Day?: Spain going forward

The Spanish Government has unveiled its latest plan to reduce the country's budget deficit and to bring it within the European Union's 3% requirement by 2016. The plan will mean yet more cost-saving and revenue-raising measures and hefty ones, too. Four billion euros will need to be found in 2015 on top of the four billion for next year. Taken together, these measures don't sound like confidence will be returning to the economy any time soon.

Yet, there are signs of possible improvement even if they are only brought about by temporary economic activity and by some talking-up. Tourism is bound to create some better performance, but if it didn't, then something would be seriously wrong; Spain's summer tourism, if not its winter tourism, is benefiting from uncertainties and unrest in key competitor destinations. This better performance has been highlighted in the Balearics, though the talking-up has been based on statistical evidence which doesn't, in itself, equate to actual economic growth. A nine per cent increase in tourism spend in the Balearics over the first nine months of this year is not an especially reliable indicator, though it is up by five percentage points over the same period in 2012.

Let's say, therefore, that there are some encouraging signs, but tourism would need to keep its performance going and indeed improving. Tourism's contribution is essential while other sectors remain moribund, one of them being retail, and it is small wonder that this sector, and so increased consumer spend, continues to languish. Increased rates of value added tax (IVA) and of income tax have done nothing to encourage consumer confidence or to lend a hand to growth.

The chances of tax rates going down - the government had said that increases would only be temporary - are remote for the foreseeable future. They are likely to remain at least into 2015. Righting the deficit is, therefore, a greater priority than effecting genuine growth, despite what the government might say about growth prospects.

Most Spaniards give politicians' pronouncements or prognostications on growth in the short-term little credence. In the Balearics, there is little credence given to President Bauzá's ham-fisted use of tourism spend information as evidence of improvement. The most recent Gadeso survey of consumer sentiment showed that there is negligible confidence in the real economy.

It is, however, the utterances of non-politicians which might help with the talking-up. If politicians are not believed, then maybe bankers will be. What am I saying? They were the ones who helped to bring about Spain's economic problems. Can, therefore, the words of the chief executive of Santander, Emilio Botín, be trusted? He has said that money is "coming in from all directions" - to the stock exchange and in the form of direct inward investment into Spain. Perhaps he can be trusted, but he will surely know that there are certain aspects of economic life in Spain which are not especially welcoming to inward investors, those who want to operate in Spain anyway. These include, as an example, the harmfully high levels of social-security payments. This, social security, is something that requires serious attention. It cripples many of the self-employed as well.

If not the politicians or the bankers, then what about the royal family? King Juan Carlos, recently in hospital again, is a declining figure. But while he declines, his son, Felipe, grows. At a business conference in Panama the other day, he echoed what the boss of Santander said about increasing investor confidence. He probably would say this, but nevertheless Felipe is cutting an altogether more impressive figure these days.

For so long in his father's shadow, Felipe's stock has risen. He has been unaffected by the corruption scandal involving his brother-in-law, Iñaki Urdangarin, which has harmed his father and both his sisters (Elena far less than Cristina but still so because of links to the same financial advisor). Despite persistent rumours as to possible problems with his marriage, Felipe does seem to be benefiting from better PR. He was the one representative at Madrid's somewhat shambolic Olympic bid presentation to come out with any credit. He spoke well. He showed the right blend of gravitas and communicativeness. He was impressive.

If Spain does come out of the doldrums, it needs to look forward and to show a new face. Too much of what is being shown by politicians is looking backward, an example being with the renewed emphasis on religion in education. If there is to be a new dawn in the hopefully not too distant future, then a young(ish) figurehead should be there to herald it, one who is increasingly confident both nationally and internationally and who would be representative of what might become a new but more sensible Spain.

MALLORCA TODAY - Royals take Sóller train trip

Crown-Prince Felipe and Princess Letizia, together with their daughters, Leonor and Sofia, took a ride yesterday evening on the train to Sóller from Palma, then took the tram to the port before finally returning to the Marivent palace, home to the Spanish royal family in Mallorca.

See more: Diario de Mallorca

Two Princes: Felipe and Letizia

A new book about the Spanish royal family by the journalists Carmen Enríquez and Emilio Oliva is due to be published next week. It concentrates on the heir to the throne, Crown-Prince Felipe, and his wife, Princess Letizia. Its central thesis is that the "Princes" are ready to take over the reins of the House of Bourbon from King Juan-Carlos and Queen Sofia. Not that this is likely to happen any time soon. The possibility of an abdication has been raised, but the natural course of events leading to a succession is the one that will be followed.

There are certain similarities between the Spanish and British royal families. The King, while having ruled for 20 odd years fewer than Queen Elizabeth, has, nevertheless, been around for a long time. Felipe, considerably younger than Prince Charles, has had to face a similar challenge to that of Charles, i.e. defining his role. He also has a beautiful, glamorous even, princess. Just like Charles once had.

Like the Queen, Juan-Carlos's stamp is firmly imprinted on the public perception of the monarchy. Both enjoy a personal popularity, which obscures rather less popularity for the total edifices that are the Houses of Windsor and Bourbon. The esteem in which both are held is a further similarity, but the causes of this esteem are quite different.

The King is inextricably linked with the transition to democracy that followed the death of Franco. But even more importantly, it was his vital role in putting down the coup attempt of February 1981 that cemented his popularity. Juan-Carlos is symbolic not only of having guaranteed democracy but also of having presided over the transformation of the country. More than politicians, he is, in the eyes of many, the embodiment of modern-day Spain. Like the Queen, he's a tough act to follow; tougher, if you like, given what he actually represents.

The King is not without his critics, but criticism is generally muted. There is a very good reason for this. It is an offence to defame or slander the royal family, as two cartoonists discovered to their cost when they ridiculed Felipe. The obstacle to freedom of speech is a bone of contention with many, but it has at least spared the Spanish royal family the sort of lampooning that has been the fate of the Windsors.

But the force field that surrounds the royal family has not prevented there being negative attitudes towards Felipe, the consequence, as with Charles, of questions as to what he actually does. However, he deserves sympathy. The apparent uncertainty as to his role would be the burden of any heir, while against the towering figure of Juan-Carlos, it has been hard for him to forge a strong identity.

This, though, is where Letizia has come in. If she has a physical attractiveness like Diana, she has none of the latter's early immaturity or later airhead tendencies. Before marrying Felipe, she was a journalist and presenter on national television. She was blessed with being worldly and intelligent as well as having good looks. Rather than the sham of Charles and Diana, her and Felipe's marriage is genuine, and it is has helped to rid Felipe of a certain stiffness, one he had in common with Charles. The image of Felipe has changed, thanks to the image of Letizia.

However, the regular images of Letizia in the media have led to concerns as to a possible trivialisation of the monarchy. Family shots with her during the summer vacations were all over the press. But rather than trivialising, the effect has been to make the royal family, and especially Felipe, seem to lighten up. In this respect, Letizia does have something in common with Diana in making the royals appear more accessible. Yet here, the similarities with the British monarchy are not directly comparable. For this observer at any rate, Juan-Carlos and Queen Sofia, despite the inevitable formality associated with their positions, come across as far more open than the Queen and Prince Philip. You couldn't imagine either of them, let alone Charles and Camilla, embracing sporting winners in the way that Juan-Carlos and Sofia have done.

Despite the worry that the Spanish monarchy's popularity resides solely with Juan-Carlos, an opposing view, as revealed by annual opinion polls, is that four-fifths of Spaniards believe that the succession will create no problems for the monarchy. And they're probably right. Felipe has come out of his shell and is now, with Letizia, enjoying increased popular support.

How Queen Elizabeth must look at the Spanish royal family and wonder what might have been.


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