Morning high (6.24am): 14.1C
Forecast high: 26C; UV: 4
Three-day forecast: 12 October - Sun, 25C; 13 October - Sun, 26C; 14 October - Sun, 25C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): Southwest 2 to 3, at times Variable.
Today and up to the weekend an at present settled outlook of sun with occasional cloud.
Evening update (20.15): Nice. High of 27.4C.
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
Victory Into Defeat: Economic Ingratitude
While the world, some of it, waits with trepidation to see if Mariano Rajoy pushes the Article 155 nuclear button and constitutionally annexes Catalonia, a far smaller part of the world may have been unaware of Rajoy imperialist intervention in the Balearics. This didn't cause ripples to turn into independence-affirming tidal waves washing across from Barcelona, as it was all on account of this imperialism having been confined to the singularly dull political hold exerted over the Balearic accounts. Yes, in the political world, even one as insane as Spain's, accounting is as yawn-inducing as it is in the real world.
The Balearic government had been in the process of edging towards its own Article 155 - the average number of days to pay suppliers. The halfway mark was breached in July last year: 83 days and going up. It was at this point that the Rajoy imperialist finance legion marched on the regional accounts and occupied them. Did anyone really notice? Well no, because no one was remotely bothered, with the exception of suppliers suffering serious cash flow crises thanks to the Balearic administration.
The quest for budgetary stability, an issue of mind-numbing tedium equal to anything that accounting can offer, was the reason. Stability included the hitherto alien concept of paying people with something approaching reasonable alacrity. So persuasive was the finance legion that within twelve months of its occupation, the accounts revealed that average payment time was more than a quarter of what it had been. The transformation has been such that there has to be more of an explanation than that the government's purchase ledger clerks had been roused from their comas. Might one therefore offer the prospect of a better financing deal from Madrid as the real reason? One might well do so.
Tough though it currently is to love anything Rajoyist hovering above the Balearic administration, there is the realpolitik of finally securing this damn financing deal. If it were to be obtained, we should all be extremely grateful. We wouldn't have to listen to the government going on about it on every available occasion. Or would we? Well we would, because triumphalism and an upcoming election would mean it being shouted from here until May 2019.
For those who believe that the Partido Popular will simply just have to show up at the next election and expect to be able to move into the Consolat del Mar government HQ electorally unmolested, I would advise some caution. On the principle that the voter is mainly interested in the economy alone, then quite remarkably the PSOE-led pact has achieved the seemingly impossible. It hasn't made a total pig's ear of things.
The irony is that it has little or nothing to do with the government as such. It can thank Madrid for being able to now boast that it takes three weeks to pay up when it used to take three months. A control of public finances, notwithstanding the massive debt of course, is due to exigencies from Madrid. And if Madrid goes all soft and delivers that Holy Grail of a better financing deal, then the Rajoy administration will truly have helped Armengol to a second term. Having itself done virtually nothing, the pact can claim economic responsibility and economic success.
There are other ironies, none more obvious than the fact that Balearic economic growth and improved employment stats owe virtually everything to what the government now considers a curse - a tourism boom that put the boom in the economic boom. It wasn't anything else and it wasn't anything that the government had any part in. It just happened.
Given all this, what could possibly go wrong and mean a clutching of 2019 electoral defeat from the jaws of victory? Well, there is that growth. There may just be more of a slowdown than forecasters suggest. Why? Because of government policy to attempt to turn boom into bust. Showing its total lack of gratitude for something it wasn't responsible for, by instituting certain tourism policies - and we all know which ones - the government may well just signal its own downfall.
And then there are the realities of growth and economic recovery on the streets and in the households. The latest Gadeso survey of the public's confidence in the economy reveals only marginal gains in some aspects. A mere 17% of households classify their financial status as good. Three-quarters of respondents say that salaries are not good enough. More still point to the proliferation of temporary jobs.
The government might hope that the wage deal for the hotel sector will provide a brighter outlook, but the fact is that the government in itself has had minimal impact on citizen well-being. And that wage deal may prove to be less of a winner next year than the government might wish, thanks to the only real influence it is now exerting on the economy.
The Balearic government had been in the process of edging towards its own Article 155 - the average number of days to pay suppliers. The halfway mark was breached in July last year: 83 days and going up. It was at this point that the Rajoy imperialist finance legion marched on the regional accounts and occupied them. Did anyone really notice? Well no, because no one was remotely bothered, with the exception of suppliers suffering serious cash flow crises thanks to the Balearic administration.
The quest for budgetary stability, an issue of mind-numbing tedium equal to anything that accounting can offer, was the reason. Stability included the hitherto alien concept of paying people with something approaching reasonable alacrity. So persuasive was the finance legion that within twelve months of its occupation, the accounts revealed that average payment time was more than a quarter of what it had been. The transformation has been such that there has to be more of an explanation than that the government's purchase ledger clerks had been roused from their comas. Might one therefore offer the prospect of a better financing deal from Madrid as the real reason? One might well do so.
Tough though it currently is to love anything Rajoyist hovering above the Balearic administration, there is the realpolitik of finally securing this damn financing deal. If it were to be obtained, we should all be extremely grateful. We wouldn't have to listen to the government going on about it on every available occasion. Or would we? Well we would, because triumphalism and an upcoming election would mean it being shouted from here until May 2019.
For those who believe that the Partido Popular will simply just have to show up at the next election and expect to be able to move into the Consolat del Mar government HQ electorally unmolested, I would advise some caution. On the principle that the voter is mainly interested in the economy alone, then quite remarkably the PSOE-led pact has achieved the seemingly impossible. It hasn't made a total pig's ear of things.
The irony is that it has little or nothing to do with the government as such. It can thank Madrid for being able to now boast that it takes three weeks to pay up when it used to take three months. A control of public finances, notwithstanding the massive debt of course, is due to exigencies from Madrid. And if Madrid goes all soft and delivers that Holy Grail of a better financing deal, then the Rajoy administration will truly have helped Armengol to a second term. Having itself done virtually nothing, the pact can claim economic responsibility and economic success.
There are other ironies, none more obvious than the fact that Balearic economic growth and improved employment stats owe virtually everything to what the government now considers a curse - a tourism boom that put the boom in the economic boom. It wasn't anything else and it wasn't anything that the government had any part in. It just happened.
Given all this, what could possibly go wrong and mean a clutching of 2019 electoral defeat from the jaws of victory? Well, there is that growth. There may just be more of a slowdown than forecasters suggest. Why? Because of government policy to attempt to turn boom into bust. Showing its total lack of gratitude for something it wasn't responsible for, by instituting certain tourism policies - and we all know which ones - the government may well just signal its own downfall.
And then there are the realities of growth and economic recovery on the streets and in the households. The latest Gadeso survey of the public's confidence in the economy reveals only marginal gains in some aspects. A mere 17% of households classify their financial status as good. Three-quarters of respondents say that salaries are not good enough. More still point to the proliferation of temporary jobs.
The government might hope that the wage deal for the hotel sector will provide a brighter outlook, but the fact is that the government in itself has had minimal impact on citizen well-being. And that wage deal may prove to be less of a winner next year than the government might wish, thanks to the only real influence it is now exerting on the economy.
Tuesday, October 10, 2017
MALLORCA TODAY - Weather Alcúdia and Pollensa 10 October 2017
Morning high (6.28am): 14.1C
Forecast high: 25C; UV: 5
Three-day forecast: 11 October - Cloud, sun, 26C; 12 October - Sun, 25C; 13 October - Sun, cloud, 25C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): West 2 to 3.
Chilly start. Sunny with cloudy spells. All is normal.
Evening update (20.30): Pretty good - high of 26.6C.
Forecast high: 25C; UV: 5
Three-day forecast: 11 October - Cloud, sun, 26C; 12 October - Sun, 25C; 13 October - Sun, cloud, 25C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): West 2 to 3.
Chilly start. Sunny with cloudy spells. All is normal.
Evening update (20.30): Pretty good - high of 26.6C.
Article Of Faith: Climate Change Law
Joan Groizard Payeras is a departmental director-general with the Balearic government. His brief CV on the government's website tells us that he received a masters in energy engineering and the environment from Cambridge and that he has been a consultant to and engineer with energy companies, with a particular emphasis on renewables. It's pretty impressive and one cannot therefore quibble with his credentials for being the director-general for energy and climate change within the ministry for land, energy and transport.
The government has informed us that it will be introducing pioneering legislation on climate change. We already know a direction in which the government is going on this. The increased use of renewables (solar) is a key policy. As to most other aspects, we will need to wait until the draft legislation is presented in order to gain an appreciation of this pioneering initiative. It will need to demonstrate greater originality than a shift to renewables to fall into the pioneering category, albeit that placing solar at the centre of the energy agenda will represent a pioneering move in the Balearics. It has taken a stupidly long time to get around to the exploitation of a natural resource we have in abundance glaring down on these islands and one, moreover, that isn't in any immediate danger of disappearing.
The irony with solar energy is that ever more of it is going to be required over the next decades. That's because the source of the energy is going to make everywhere that much hotter. Climate change policy can therefore take a positive from the sun being a supplier of energy for air-conditioning in order to offset the negative of the sun being so damned hot and reducing the islands to an almost permanent state of drought, or at least the victims of prolonged heat waves.
Groizard was last week presenting some conclusions from the first study to be made of climate change vulnerability. The Balearics, it has been noted in various reports of a scientific variety, are going to be particularly vulnerable to the consequences of climate change; if they aren't already. Studying this vulnerability seems like a good start, but what did he have to tell us? In truth, nothing that we don't already know or would have guessed. More violent storms, greater risks of flooding and landslides, drought, heat waves, rising sea level, impact on infrastructure and buildings.
What is this legislation likely to be? It is tempting to think that its pioneering quality will be confined to the fact that nowhere else has actually passed a law which specifically states climate change in its title. For a government as virtuous as the current one, it would be a feather in an already environmentally plumed cap to lay claim to such legislative innovation. This assessment, however, does rather dilute the role that Groizard has and is presumably playing. He isn't a civil servant, he's an expert; that's why he's director-general.
The problem, though, is the political nature of climate change. I think by now we are familiar enough with the arguments, so for a government such as the one we have at the moment, having a department bearing the title climate change, enacting legislation called climate change are indications of its political view of the issue. But not everyone of course agrees.
Rod Liddle is someone who can typically be relied upon to stoke an argument. Writing in The Times recently, he wasn't denying climate change - "I can see (the climate) doing its stuff outside my window" - but he made a point, as if it was really again needed, that "climate change proponents are required to hype up the rhetoric, to provide politicians with suitably scary predictions". He was referring in particular to scientific experts and to, for example, university departments being dubbed climate change. Once you have these, climate change becomes an article of faith and spawns what it does - policy initiatives, taxes and a lucrative industry.
In a similar fashion, if you have a government department with the title, it's highly unlikely that its expert director-general is going to tell ministers that climate change needn't cause sleepless nights. And I say this with the greatest respect for Groizard.
With certain policies, like solar, they just seem common sense. Exploit the sun, and stop polluting everywhere with contaminants and emissions. Likewise with stopping anchorage on posidonia and preventing harm to the marine environment. Posidonia's benefits in terms of preventing erosion and lessening the impact of CO2 are a bonus. One can and should accept this, but in other respects there are doubts. Will this pioneering legislation, as an example, set in motion an ultimate process of urban relocation away from more vulnerable areas? It has to be a possibility. But at what cost? To whom and to where? Yet uncertainty would determine such a policy. Wouldn't it?
The government has informed us that it will be introducing pioneering legislation on climate change. We already know a direction in which the government is going on this. The increased use of renewables (solar) is a key policy. As to most other aspects, we will need to wait until the draft legislation is presented in order to gain an appreciation of this pioneering initiative. It will need to demonstrate greater originality than a shift to renewables to fall into the pioneering category, albeit that placing solar at the centre of the energy agenda will represent a pioneering move in the Balearics. It has taken a stupidly long time to get around to the exploitation of a natural resource we have in abundance glaring down on these islands and one, moreover, that isn't in any immediate danger of disappearing.
The irony with solar energy is that ever more of it is going to be required over the next decades. That's because the source of the energy is going to make everywhere that much hotter. Climate change policy can therefore take a positive from the sun being a supplier of energy for air-conditioning in order to offset the negative of the sun being so damned hot and reducing the islands to an almost permanent state of drought, or at least the victims of prolonged heat waves.
Groizard was last week presenting some conclusions from the first study to be made of climate change vulnerability. The Balearics, it has been noted in various reports of a scientific variety, are going to be particularly vulnerable to the consequences of climate change; if they aren't already. Studying this vulnerability seems like a good start, but what did he have to tell us? In truth, nothing that we don't already know or would have guessed. More violent storms, greater risks of flooding and landslides, drought, heat waves, rising sea level, impact on infrastructure and buildings.
What is this legislation likely to be? It is tempting to think that its pioneering quality will be confined to the fact that nowhere else has actually passed a law which specifically states climate change in its title. For a government as virtuous as the current one, it would be a feather in an already environmentally plumed cap to lay claim to such legislative innovation. This assessment, however, does rather dilute the role that Groizard has and is presumably playing. He isn't a civil servant, he's an expert; that's why he's director-general.
The problem, though, is the political nature of climate change. I think by now we are familiar enough with the arguments, so for a government such as the one we have at the moment, having a department bearing the title climate change, enacting legislation called climate change are indications of its political view of the issue. But not everyone of course agrees.
Rod Liddle is someone who can typically be relied upon to stoke an argument. Writing in The Times recently, he wasn't denying climate change - "I can see (the climate) doing its stuff outside my window" - but he made a point, as if it was really again needed, that "climate change proponents are required to hype up the rhetoric, to provide politicians with suitably scary predictions". He was referring in particular to scientific experts and to, for example, university departments being dubbed climate change. Once you have these, climate change becomes an article of faith and spawns what it does - policy initiatives, taxes and a lucrative industry.
In a similar fashion, if you have a government department with the title, it's highly unlikely that its expert director-general is going to tell ministers that climate change needn't cause sleepless nights. And I say this with the greatest respect for Groizard.
With certain policies, like solar, they just seem common sense. Exploit the sun, and stop polluting everywhere with contaminants and emissions. Likewise with stopping anchorage on posidonia and preventing harm to the marine environment. Posidonia's benefits in terms of preventing erosion and lessening the impact of CO2 are a bonus. One can and should accept this, but in other respects there are doubts. Will this pioneering legislation, as an example, set in motion an ultimate process of urban relocation away from more vulnerable areas? It has to be a possibility. But at what cost? To whom and to where? Yet uncertainty would determine such a policy. Wouldn't it?
Monday, October 09, 2017
MALLORCA TODAY - Weather Alcúdia and Pollensa 9 October 2017
Morning high (7.03am): 14.3C
Forecast high: 24C; UV: 5
Three-day forecast: 10 October - Cloud, sun, 25C; 11 October - Sun, 26C; 12 October - Sun, 25C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): East-Northeast 2 to 3.
Some cloud today but mainly sunny. Tomorrow may see the odd shower. Rest of the week looking pretty good.
Evening update (20.00): High of 24.8C. Decent day until clouding over in the afternoon.
Forecast high: 24C; UV: 5
Three-day forecast: 10 October - Cloud, sun, 25C; 11 October - Sun, 26C; 12 October - Sun, 25C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): East-Northeast 2 to 3.
Some cloud today but mainly sunny. Tomorrow may see the odd shower. Rest of the week looking pretty good.
Evening update (20.00): High of 24.8C. Decent day until clouding over in the afternoon.
Computing And Helicopters: Mallorcan Science
Societies and cultures play a vital role in the extent to which scientific and technological research and the application of science in the form of inventions or theories that may have practical outcomes can flourish or not. The history of the past eight hundred years or so demonstrates how science can be enabled or disabled by its societies.
The programme for the current series of autumn fairs in Llucmajor features as its key image a drawing of a cometagiroavion, a comet-giro-plane. At the Sant Bonaventura Culture Centre in Llucmajor is a full-scale re-creation of this machine. People in Llucmajor, people in Mallorca will insist that it was the first helicopter, the visionary idea of Pere Sastre Obrador that dates from 1923.
Argument has raged for many years about the apparent plagiarism of Sastre's invention. Juan de la Cierva y Cordorníu is attributed with the invention of the "autogiro". He was the son of the Spanish minister for development, who had decided that Sastre's flying machine lacked "public interest". Argument or not, Sastre provided a rare case of Mallorcan invention. As a society, Mallorca doesn't have much of a past in this respect. Only recently has it embraced a genuinely scientific perspective, and the university's Relativity and Gravitation Group is absolute proof of that.
But if one goes back into the mists of time to mediaeval days, Mallorca did have an inventor. Ramon Llull is known for many things, and among them was what he developed, largely theoretically, in his Arte Luliano. Llull came up with the notion of the combination of symbols to enable knowledge and understanding of more complex concepts. As such, Llull was a very early mover in the development of computing and of notions that were to be elaborated in the seventeenth century by Gottfried Wilhem Leibniz.
At a much higher level of argument than that surrounding Sastre's helicopter has been the one about the development of differential and integral calculus. Leibniz is said to have come to his theories entirely independently of Isaac Newton. Some will say that he didn't. Regardless of this debate, Leibniz, like Newton, was very much a precursor of Einstein and therefore the Ligo project in arguing principles of relativity. He also invented the Leibniz wheel which was to eventually spawn the arithmometer, the first mass-produced mechanical calculator. Moreover, he refined the binary system, the basis of computing.
The Leibniz wheel has distinct echoes of Llull, who had come up with the Llullian circle of truths. In this regard, it is not unreasonable to grant Llull an important place in the history of scientific development that has brought us to the current-day digital world. But Llull remains a largely obscure figure in global terms. His science has not commanded any great acknowledgement for a variety of reasons. One is that he was also a purveyor of scientific charlatanism, i.e. alchemy. A second is that within the Catholic tradition he did not always enjoy unanimous support and continued not to for several centuries. Indeed, he was denounced as a heretic by some because of his dogma of the Immaculate Conception. He was able to flourish largely thanks to the patronage of the early Catalan kings rather than because of any favouritism among the papal hierarchy.
Catholicism explains more about Llull in that it was to fundamentally inhibit rational scientific thought and advance. Newton and Leibniz were of a similar vintage to Galileo, who spent the last ten years of his life under house arrest after the Inquisition had condemned him for heresy. The contrasting societies of the times in England, Germany and Italy say a great deal. An earlier free thinker, Leonardo da Vinci (who of course had his own idea for a flying machine), had powerful friends and patrons, e.g. the Medici family. He might have had far more problems than he did, had it not been for who he knew.
It wasn't as though Spain didn't have its centres of great learning, but the contribution to science was restricted by societal attitudes based on a conservative religion. Mallorca, a backwater anyway, offered no great claim on science or on invention. But then Pere Sastre came along, and - subject to an interpretation of events - he was a victim of a form of corruption and nepotism: his idea for a helicopter was stolen by a political elite in Madrid.
* Photo of the re-created cometagiroavion via Ajuntament de Llucmajor.
Sunday, October 08, 2017
MALLORCA TODAY - Weather Alcúdia and Pollensa 8 October 2017
Morning high (7.00am): 12.4C
Forecast high: 25C; UV: 5
Three-day forecast: 9 October - Cloud, sun, 24C; 10 October - Cloud, sun, 25C; 11 October - Sun, cloud, 26C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): Variable 1 to 2.
Autumn's here. First real chilly morning. Sunny spells later.
Evening update (20.00): High of 27.1C. Not bad. Cloud and sun mix.
Forecast high: 25C; UV: 5
Three-day forecast: 9 October - Cloud, sun, 24C; 10 October - Cloud, sun, 25C; 11 October - Sun, cloud, 26C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): Variable 1 to 2.
Autumn's here. First real chilly morning. Sunny spells later.
Evening update (20.00): High of 27.1C. Not bad. Cloud and sun mix.
Khaleesi Of Podemos
Now, it is just conceivable that, because of the spot of bother there's been in Catalonia, you were unaware of a referendum closer to home; if you are one of those who chooses to call Mallorca and the Balearics home, that is. This was the citizens' referendum for Podemos. The faithful were called upon to select the successor to Alberto Jarabo as gen-sec in the Balearics.
Prior to the fateful deed being done, The Four Feminists Of The Apparatchik (i.e. the candidates) communed with the citizens in a room at Palma's CineCiutat. I know I've suggested that Laura Camargo could get a part in a David Lynch film, but this hardly inspired confidence. I mean, it's not as though the cinema's that big in the first place. One room? How few citizens could there have been?
Anyway, they were presented one by one: María Asunción Jacoba Pía de la Concha García-Mauriño (and yes, she is just one); our good friend The Boot Girl, Laura; Cristina Gómez; and, erm, a bloke called Jorge Sans. I think you can probably guess that Jorge was on to a bit of a loser, which proved to be the case (3.1% of the vote). Still, he tried manfully, or should one say, womanfully, in insisting that he represented the candidacy of "the bases", which is the arcane term they use for meaning supporters. Jorge added that a new stage was starting for Podemos: one of union to win the 2019 elections, of recovering "visibility" on the streets" and of being "well feminised".
In this regard, Jorge was unlikely to have ever really made it off the starting blocks. He did have one very slight disadvantage - being a he. Therefore, he was somewhat out of place when the foursome had a "femi-café" (whatever that is) prior to their presentations to the citizens. As to visibility, it's reasonable to assume that Jorge will remain largely invisible, which is not what can be said for Granny Mae. Yes, María Asunción Jacoba Pía de la Concha García-Mauriño (for she is Granny Mae) limped to victory: 47.6% of the vote. Jorge had been put firmly in his feminist place, but The Boot Girl was a mere six per cent behind as Granny crossed the finishing line.
The result will have had capitalists breathing a sigh of relief. Granny is from the Jarabo wing of not being entirely anti-capitalist, unlike Laura, who is - and 101 per cent so. The spectre of leading hoteliers being shackled by the wrists and ankles and frogshuffled off to re-education camps in fields in the general vicinity of Sineu was thus averted.
And what did Laura make of it all? Well, prior to the vote, she had said that they should all go forward side by side. "The collective is greater than the individual (she must have known something) and let's not elbow each other." Quite. Stick the boot in instead. Which is rather what Granny Mae achieved - just about.
Granny's victory does require some explaining. Laura is, after all, very much better known. She spends every breathing parliamentary moment berating anyone she claps eyes on, a terrifying experience that turns all pro-capitalist anti-feminists into gibbering wrecks. With such credentials, surely she should have cleaned up the vote. Ah yes, but we shouldn't perhaps have underestimated the wise summary of The Judge.
Juan Pedro Yllanes, you may have forgotten, was a senior judge. So senior was he, that he was originally going to have been the presiding judge at the Princess Cristina-Iñaki trial. He opted instead to get elected to Congress for Podemos, and his views come with the forensic insight one might expect of his profession. He delivered his verdict. Laura's project was one integrated with the United Left (communists) and anti-capitalists: it was one of "pure extremism". Ouch. Moreover, said The Judge, Laura has no intention of actually formally joining and being a part of the Balearic government. Granny, on the other hand, does have such an intention, which will either sound like good or bad news: the latter, if you happen to be President Armengol.
Meanwhile, it would seem that we are going to have to get used to Granny Mae adopting an alternative moniker. I give you, in all seriousness, Khaleesi. Yes, according to her support base, she is "our Khaleesi". For any of you unfamiliar with this reference, it is to Daenerys Targaryen Khaleesi, the character played by Emilia Clarke in Game Of Thrones. And if you are also therefore unfamiliar with what Emilia looks like, then I recommend that you Google her.
Why is Granny Mae their Khaleesi? Well, notwithstanding the fact that she bears absolutely no resemblance to Emilia, there is the small matter of Khaleesi being the Mother of Dragons. Respect does prevent me from making any comment about old dragons or Peggy Mount, but let us therefore assume that fire will be breathed. Oh dear, Francina, consensus and dialogue won't be much defence when that happens.
Prior to the fateful deed being done, The Four Feminists Of The Apparatchik (i.e. the candidates) communed with the citizens in a room at Palma's CineCiutat. I know I've suggested that Laura Camargo could get a part in a David Lynch film, but this hardly inspired confidence. I mean, it's not as though the cinema's that big in the first place. One room? How few citizens could there have been?
Anyway, they were presented one by one: María Asunción Jacoba Pía de la Concha García-Mauriño (and yes, she is just one); our good friend The Boot Girl, Laura; Cristina Gómez; and, erm, a bloke called Jorge Sans. I think you can probably guess that Jorge was on to a bit of a loser, which proved to be the case (3.1% of the vote). Still, he tried manfully, or should one say, womanfully, in insisting that he represented the candidacy of "the bases", which is the arcane term they use for meaning supporters. Jorge added that a new stage was starting for Podemos: one of union to win the 2019 elections, of recovering "visibility" on the streets" and of being "well feminised".
In this regard, Jorge was unlikely to have ever really made it off the starting blocks. He did have one very slight disadvantage - being a he. Therefore, he was somewhat out of place when the foursome had a "femi-café" (whatever that is) prior to their presentations to the citizens. As to visibility, it's reasonable to assume that Jorge will remain largely invisible, which is not what can be said for Granny Mae. Yes, María Asunción Jacoba Pía de la Concha García-Mauriño (for she is Granny Mae) limped to victory: 47.6% of the vote. Jorge had been put firmly in his feminist place, but The Boot Girl was a mere six per cent behind as Granny crossed the finishing line.
The result will have had capitalists breathing a sigh of relief. Granny is from the Jarabo wing of not being entirely anti-capitalist, unlike Laura, who is - and 101 per cent so. The spectre of leading hoteliers being shackled by the wrists and ankles and frogshuffled off to re-education camps in fields in the general vicinity of Sineu was thus averted.
And what did Laura make of it all? Well, prior to the vote, she had said that they should all go forward side by side. "The collective is greater than the individual (she must have known something) and let's not elbow each other." Quite. Stick the boot in instead. Which is rather what Granny Mae achieved - just about.
Granny's victory does require some explaining. Laura is, after all, very much better known. She spends every breathing parliamentary moment berating anyone she claps eyes on, a terrifying experience that turns all pro-capitalist anti-feminists into gibbering wrecks. With such credentials, surely she should have cleaned up the vote. Ah yes, but we shouldn't perhaps have underestimated the wise summary of The Judge.
Juan Pedro Yllanes, you may have forgotten, was a senior judge. So senior was he, that he was originally going to have been the presiding judge at the Princess Cristina-Iñaki trial. He opted instead to get elected to Congress for Podemos, and his views come with the forensic insight one might expect of his profession. He delivered his verdict. Laura's project was one integrated with the United Left (communists) and anti-capitalists: it was one of "pure extremism". Ouch. Moreover, said The Judge, Laura has no intention of actually formally joining and being a part of the Balearic government. Granny, on the other hand, does have such an intention, which will either sound like good or bad news: the latter, if you happen to be President Armengol.
Meanwhile, it would seem that we are going to have to get used to Granny Mae adopting an alternative moniker. I give you, in all seriousness, Khaleesi. Yes, according to her support base, she is "our Khaleesi". For any of you unfamiliar with this reference, it is to Daenerys Targaryen Khaleesi, the character played by Emilia Clarke in Game Of Thrones. And if you are also therefore unfamiliar with what Emilia looks like, then I recommend that you Google her.
Why is Granny Mae their Khaleesi? Well, notwithstanding the fact that she bears absolutely no resemblance to Emilia, there is the small matter of Khaleesi being the Mother of Dragons. Respect does prevent me from making any comment about old dragons or Peggy Mount, but let us therefore assume that fire will be breathed. Oh dear, Francina, consensus and dialogue won't be much defence when that happens.
Saturday, October 07, 2017
MALLORCA TODAY - Weather Alcúdia and Pollensa 7 October 2017
Morning high (6.15am): 19.6C
Forecast high: 23C; UV: 5
Three-day forecast: 8 October - Sun, cloud, 25C; 9 October - Cloud, 24C; 10 October - Cloud, sun, 24C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): North-Northeast 6 to 7 easing 3 to 4 during the morning.
Windy to start with. Dropping off later. Sunny day expected. Sunday looks decent.
Forecast high: 23C; UV: 5
Three-day forecast: 8 October - Sun, cloud, 25C; 9 October - Cloud, 24C; 10 October - Cloud, sun, 24C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): North-Northeast 6 to 7 easing 3 to 4 during the morning.
Windy to start with. Dropping off later. Sunny day expected. Sunday looks decent.
Always The Tourism Ministry
During the PSOE-led government between 2007 and 2011, there were four tourism ministers. Three of them were with the now defunct Unió Mallorquina, which was brought down by corruption scandals. Two of the three - Francesc Buils and Miquel Nadal - were sent to prison. They are still there.
The tourism ministry was at the heart of much the corruption that engulfed that government. The UM was ultimately thrown out of the coalition by PSOE. Two agencies within the ministry - Ibatur (tourism promotion) and Inestur (tourism research) - were wound up as a result of the corruption. They were replaced by one new body - the Balearic Tourism Agency. Its current director, Pere Muñoz, now faces criminal proceedings. He is one of five people to be cited in the case of the Més contracts that were awarded to Jaume Garau, the party's campaign manager and "guru" for the 2015 elections. The tourism ministry is not the only one affected, as the other three officials (Garau is the fifth person to be cited) were from the transparency and culture ministry. But in the case of Muñoz, he is the only one still holding his position. He may not be for much longer.
The contracts affair, in terms of the money involved, is not in the same league as what the UM used to get up to. One has felt that rather too much has been made of it, but the political climate being as it is, any whiff of corruption is now pounced upon. And that brings the tourism minister and government vice-president, Biel Barceló, firmly into the equation. He hasn't been cited. Had he been, then all hell would have been let loose. But there are those who will now be gunning for him again - Podemos and the Partido Popular in particular.
To make matters worse, there are the accusations that the tourism director-general, Pilar Carbonell, acted in a favourable manner towards the Cursach Group. The versions of events differ. The tourism ministry offers one, the judge investigating Cursach and police corruption suggests that there is another. The ministry, and to therefore be fair to Carbonell, is right when it says that there are typically communications with businesses over the winter months regarding the expediting of building work. In this respect, it would have been no particular surprise that Carbonell was in contact with Tolo Sbert from Cursach.
As Cursach is involved, the case has inevitably been blown up, especially as the court account appears to suggest that a processing on behalf of Cursach (work at MegaPark) took only two weeks over a Christmas period from the time of contact between Sbert and Carbonell. The conversation between the two, reproduced in the media, is also somewhat damning insofar as it suggests how compliant Carbonell was. Més are themselves investigating what happened. And then there is also the fact that Carbonell has been summoned to appear in court later this month in a case involving a petrol station on the Son Bugadelles industrial estate in Santa Ponsa. This refers to a time when she didn't have any public office.
All of this is now circling around Biel Barceló. Muñoz is an old friend and political sparring partner. Carbonell wasn't his first choice as director-general; Garau was. He needs all of this like a hole in the head, given what he has on his plate in tourism policy terms and that he is due to be in London next month for the World Travel Market. Meanwhile, the knives are being sharpened.
The tourism ministry was at the heart of much the corruption that engulfed that government. The UM was ultimately thrown out of the coalition by PSOE. Two agencies within the ministry - Ibatur (tourism promotion) and Inestur (tourism research) - were wound up as a result of the corruption. They were replaced by one new body - the Balearic Tourism Agency. Its current director, Pere Muñoz, now faces criminal proceedings. He is one of five people to be cited in the case of the Més contracts that were awarded to Jaume Garau, the party's campaign manager and "guru" for the 2015 elections. The tourism ministry is not the only one affected, as the other three officials (Garau is the fifth person to be cited) were from the transparency and culture ministry. But in the case of Muñoz, he is the only one still holding his position. He may not be for much longer.
The contracts affair, in terms of the money involved, is not in the same league as what the UM used to get up to. One has felt that rather too much has been made of it, but the political climate being as it is, any whiff of corruption is now pounced upon. And that brings the tourism minister and government vice-president, Biel Barceló, firmly into the equation. He hasn't been cited. Had he been, then all hell would have been let loose. But there are those who will now be gunning for him again - Podemos and the Partido Popular in particular.
To make matters worse, there are the accusations that the tourism director-general, Pilar Carbonell, acted in a favourable manner towards the Cursach Group. The versions of events differ. The tourism ministry offers one, the judge investigating Cursach and police corruption suggests that there is another. The ministry, and to therefore be fair to Carbonell, is right when it says that there are typically communications with businesses over the winter months regarding the expediting of building work. In this respect, it would have been no particular surprise that Carbonell was in contact with Tolo Sbert from Cursach.
As Cursach is involved, the case has inevitably been blown up, especially as the court account appears to suggest that a processing on behalf of Cursach (work at MegaPark) took only two weeks over a Christmas period from the time of contact between Sbert and Carbonell. The conversation between the two, reproduced in the media, is also somewhat damning insofar as it suggests how compliant Carbonell was. Més are themselves investigating what happened. And then there is also the fact that Carbonell has been summoned to appear in court later this month in a case involving a petrol station on the Son Bugadelles industrial estate in Santa Ponsa. This refers to a time when she didn't have any public office.
All of this is now circling around Biel Barceló. Muñoz is an old friend and political sparring partner. Carbonell wasn't his first choice as director-general; Garau was. He needs all of this like a hole in the head, given what he has on his plate in tourism policy terms and that he is due to be in London next month for the World Travel Market. Meanwhile, the knives are being sharpened.
Friday, October 06, 2017
MALLORCA TODAY - Weather Alcúdia and Pollensa 6 October 2017
Morning high (5.45am): 14.4C
Forecast high: 26C; UV: 5
Three-day forecast: 7 October - Sun, cloud, wind, 23C; 8 October - Sun, cloud, 25C; 9 October - Cloud, 22C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): West 2 to 3 veering Northeast 4 to 5 during the morning.
Rain quite possible today and getting windy by the evening. An alert for high winds increasing to amber overnight, then easing. Tomorrow due to be sunny though.
Evening update (20.00): No rain. Much better than forecast until clouding over late in the afternoon. High of 28.1C.
Forecast high: 26C; UV: 5
Three-day forecast: 7 October - Sun, cloud, wind, 23C; 8 October - Sun, cloud, 25C; 9 October - Cloud, 22C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): West 2 to 3 veering Northeast 4 to 5 during the morning.
Rain quite possible today and getting windy by the evening. An alert for high winds increasing to amber overnight, then easing. Tomorrow due to be sunny though.
Evening update (20.00): No rain. Much better than forecast until clouding over late in the afternoon. High of 28.1C.
In A Crisis Way
There have always been crises. Suez had its crisis, Cuban missiles had their crisis. Oil had a crisis. But in a less media frenetic age crises seemed to somehow stand out more. They really were crises. They could command attention as single events. Crisis wasn't all around. It was in one place at one time.
Crisis, to borrow a phrase of the moment, is the new normal. In truth, it's the old normal. It's just that crisis wasn't as all pervading as it can appear to be now. Welcome to the world of crisis. Nothing is secure. Nothing is as you would like it to be. Nothing is normal. And, to paraphrase another maxim (one originated, probably, by The Firesign Theatre), nothing you know is right. Everything you know is wrong, primarily because what you thought you knew is fake - fake news.
Perhaps current crises are themselves fake. There is a collective imagination that perceives them like they are simulations. They don't really exist. Crisis is a requirement of political power. Big Brother invents crises as means of consolidating power, but then Big Brother may not himself have existed. We are not all Winston Smith.
The crises are not inventions. They are a question of degree. They require adjectival modification. Are they major, are they minor? Regardless of scale, however, place them side by side and they surpass the major league. They enter mega territory. A collision of crises; crises of critical mass. Yet while they revolve around us, acquiring ever greater force, we carry on as normal, assuming we know what this normal is. In a crisis way, in a constant crisis way, it's hard to know for sure. Everything we know is not quite as it should be.
Economic crisis - the most recent one, that is - was not at one place at one time. Crises rarely do in fact occupy one time or place. They endure and they are diverse. That most recent economic crisis, despite greatly improved circumstance, still endures and it engulfs most territory and people along with it. Spain's economic crisis provided the context for political convulsion. We are experiencing the fallout from the explosion, or rather implosion. Podemos is a legacy of crisis and of heads being beaten in the squares occupied by the "indignados". The disruption of the political status quo was as much if not more a consequence of economic crisis as it was the abhorrence of corruption.
Nationally and regionally, the evidence is there to be seen and to be experienced. A Madrid government is inherently feeble thanks to that political convulsion. In the Balearics, the government hangs together with a constant whistling to keep up spirits to the tune of "consensus and dialogue". Crisis defines political administration, but even in its enfeebled state, this administration can broker greater crisis. It wills it upon itself in acts of securing power - the power of the state, the power of the nation.
In a Gladstone Irish way, Catalonia was a "question". A question, depending on escalation or de-escalation, can become a crisis or a solution. While still a question, economic crisis was a context for Catalonian demands for greater financial autonomy. The region, beset by debt and racking up ever more, sought a way out. It would be bought out with a higher slice of tax revenues. All the while, though, there lurked the possibility of independence crisis in the shadow of this Catalonian question. Escalation finally came. And it was a joker to be played by both sides. Now, the King has become embroiled. A crisis, which might have de-escalated had it not been for heads being broken with batons, has been permitted to escalate, to consume, to overtake. There's no faking the Catalonia crisis. There's no avoiding a sense that one side - Madrid - fabricated a crisis while lacking a popular mandate. That political convulsion had determined this. A crisis in the name of some of Spain but by no means all of it.
Practicalities can be neglected at such times. But for Catalonia there are significant ones. Its tourism stands to lose out to a far greater degree than because of an act of terror. International sympathy might lie with Barcelona and the Catalans, but sympathy can look the other way. There are so many options for the traveller. Yet he or she observes options being reduced. There is an unnerving sense of at least a "question" in the Balearics, the ultimate product of economic crisis, allied with the crisis of terrorism. The islands' government was moulded and shaped by that economic crisis. Its component parts are not equals. One part, PSOE, is as enfeebled as the PP in Madrid. It bows to the shadows in the dark of parliament's corridors and facilitates an incoherence of tourism policy that might just escalate.
Crisis is normal. And crisis is a continuum, the product of the controllable and of the out of control.
Crisis, to borrow a phrase of the moment, is the new normal. In truth, it's the old normal. It's just that crisis wasn't as all pervading as it can appear to be now. Welcome to the world of crisis. Nothing is secure. Nothing is as you would like it to be. Nothing is normal. And, to paraphrase another maxim (one originated, probably, by The Firesign Theatre), nothing you know is right. Everything you know is wrong, primarily because what you thought you knew is fake - fake news.
Perhaps current crises are themselves fake. There is a collective imagination that perceives them like they are simulations. They don't really exist. Crisis is a requirement of political power. Big Brother invents crises as means of consolidating power, but then Big Brother may not himself have existed. We are not all Winston Smith.
The crises are not inventions. They are a question of degree. They require adjectival modification. Are they major, are they minor? Regardless of scale, however, place them side by side and they surpass the major league. They enter mega territory. A collision of crises; crises of critical mass. Yet while they revolve around us, acquiring ever greater force, we carry on as normal, assuming we know what this normal is. In a crisis way, in a constant crisis way, it's hard to know for sure. Everything we know is not quite as it should be.
Economic crisis - the most recent one, that is - was not at one place at one time. Crises rarely do in fact occupy one time or place. They endure and they are diverse. That most recent economic crisis, despite greatly improved circumstance, still endures and it engulfs most territory and people along with it. Spain's economic crisis provided the context for political convulsion. We are experiencing the fallout from the explosion, or rather implosion. Podemos is a legacy of crisis and of heads being beaten in the squares occupied by the "indignados". The disruption of the political status quo was as much if not more a consequence of economic crisis as it was the abhorrence of corruption.
Nationally and regionally, the evidence is there to be seen and to be experienced. A Madrid government is inherently feeble thanks to that political convulsion. In the Balearics, the government hangs together with a constant whistling to keep up spirits to the tune of "consensus and dialogue". Crisis defines political administration, but even in its enfeebled state, this administration can broker greater crisis. It wills it upon itself in acts of securing power - the power of the state, the power of the nation.
In a Gladstone Irish way, Catalonia was a "question". A question, depending on escalation or de-escalation, can become a crisis or a solution. While still a question, economic crisis was a context for Catalonian demands for greater financial autonomy. The region, beset by debt and racking up ever more, sought a way out. It would be bought out with a higher slice of tax revenues. All the while, though, there lurked the possibility of independence crisis in the shadow of this Catalonian question. Escalation finally came. And it was a joker to be played by both sides. Now, the King has become embroiled. A crisis, which might have de-escalated had it not been for heads being broken with batons, has been permitted to escalate, to consume, to overtake. There's no faking the Catalonia crisis. There's no avoiding a sense that one side - Madrid - fabricated a crisis while lacking a popular mandate. That political convulsion had determined this. A crisis in the name of some of Spain but by no means all of it.
Practicalities can be neglected at such times. But for Catalonia there are significant ones. Its tourism stands to lose out to a far greater degree than because of an act of terror. International sympathy might lie with Barcelona and the Catalans, but sympathy can look the other way. There are so many options for the traveller. Yet he or she observes options being reduced. There is an unnerving sense of at least a "question" in the Balearics, the ultimate product of economic crisis, allied with the crisis of terrorism. The islands' government was moulded and shaped by that economic crisis. Its component parts are not equals. One part, PSOE, is as enfeebled as the PP in Madrid. It bows to the shadows in the dark of parliament's corridors and facilitates an incoherence of tourism policy that might just escalate.
Crisis is normal. And crisis is a continuum, the product of the controllable and of the out of control.
Thursday, October 05, 2017
MALLORCA TODAY - Weather Alcúdia and Pollensa 5 October 2017
Morning high (5.58am): 15.3C
Forecast high: 26C; UV: 6
Three-day forecast: 6 October - Cloud, rain, 25C; 7 October - Sun, cloud, wind, 22C; 8 October - Cloud, 25C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): Northwest 2 to 3 occasionally 4.
Should be in for another fine and sunny day. Tomorrow not.
Evening update (20.15): High of 28.9C. Good.
Forecast high: 26C; UV: 6
Three-day forecast: 6 October - Cloud, rain, 25C; 7 October - Sun, cloud, wind, 22C; 8 October - Cloud, 25C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): Northwest 2 to 3 occasionally 4.
Should be in for another fine and sunny day. Tomorrow not.
Evening update (20.15): High of 28.9C. Good.
The Balearic Independence Myth
The gross domestic product of the Balearic Islands is around 27 billion euros - 27,000 million. This is roughly 12% the size of Catalonia's economy, which creates more than one-fifth of Spain's total GDP. If one wants other comparisons, Balearic GDP is lower than that of Sicily, of Sardinia and of the Canary Islands. By contrast, it is greater (by more than two times) than Malta.
In hypothetical terms, the Balearics could stand alone, but then one can say this for many regions in Europe. GDP reveals only so much. The nature of the economy is as important. The Balearics, and we are being constantly reminded of this, has an economic monoculture - tourism. Catalonia most definitely does not. Nor does Malta, what with, for example, its financial services; tourism's direct contribution to the Maltese economy is roughly a third of what it is in the Balearics.
Apart from a shared language, Catalonia and the Balearics form a fraternity based on perceived fiscal and financial injustice. Catalonia had wanted a different arrangement. It had wanted to be like the Basque Country (and Navarre). It had sought a system whereby it would keep all tax revenues - income tax and VAT - and then pay an agreed percentage to the state. Instead, it had to maintain the arrangement that exists for all Spain's regions, with the exception of the Basque Country and Navarre. Tax revenue is remitted to Madrid and is then paid back under the regional distribution system. The Balearics and Catalonia (and the Madrid region) lose out under this - they put more in than they receive. In other words, they help to subsidise the rest of Spain.
Setting aside all other considerations, Catalonia, in economic terms, is a viable state: very much a viable state. The same cannot be said for the Balearics. The numbers might look reasonable by comparison to, say, Malta, but they fail to hide the underlying weakness of the economy - it's that monoculture.
We have at present a collision of forces in the Balearics. One of these is the demand for diversification, a demand so old that it reinforces the questionability of how there can ever be meaningful diversification. The agitators provide absolutely no prescription. They argue in favour of a mostly blank sheet of paper. They offer no model to replace the apparently discredited model which obtains at present, save for vague allusions to new and information technologies.
The second force is sovereignty, or at least a force emanating from certain quarters - Més most obviously. David Abril, the chief promoter of a referendum of independence by 2030, says that 2030 is not far away. He's right, it isn't far away. He might hope that over this comparatively short timeframe the monoculture can be meaningfully diversified. Because if it isn't, any referendum would be predicated on dangerous economic grounds.
The third force is what has been happening in Catalonia, which has helped to motivate Més into issuing its clarion call for independence. Here is further fraternity, that of sovereignty of the components of the Catalan Lands, even if this fraternity is more mythical than real.
The last time that the Gadeso research foundation conducted a survey into identity was in September 2015. It discovered that 38% of respondents were in favour of the current system of autonomous government in the Balearics. This was the highest percentage of six options. Only four per cent were in favour of being given the chance to opt for independence. When asked whether they felt more Spanish or more Balearic, 51% rated this equally. Only Més and El Pi voters said they felt more Balearic than Spanish or just Balearic: El Pi is a sort of centre-right version of Més in terms of nationalist leanings. Neither party can point to high levels of popular support: Més 13.8% of the vote for the regional government in 2015; El Pi 7.96%.
The next question was island-specific. Do you identify most with the Balearics, your own island or with the Catalan Lands? Overwhelmingly, and in each case, it was with the individual island. Identity with the Catalan Lands was no more than two per cent.
These findings invalidate the Més proposition. Independence is not wished for. Being somehow beholden to Catalonia is most certainly rejected. The concept of the Balearics as a social entity is also highly questionable. The individual islands have long had their own identity. Even the granting of autonomy in 1983 didn't produce wild scenes of joy on the streets. Regional government is an administrative function as much if not more than any expression of identity.
A colossal change in attitude would be needed in the space of seventeen years if Més were to achieve its ambition. Just as significantly, there would need to be a major restructuring of the economic base by 2030 in order to make an independent Balearics even vaguely sensible as a separate economic entity. It's not going to happen.
In hypothetical terms, the Balearics could stand alone, but then one can say this for many regions in Europe. GDP reveals only so much. The nature of the economy is as important. The Balearics, and we are being constantly reminded of this, has an economic monoculture - tourism. Catalonia most definitely does not. Nor does Malta, what with, for example, its financial services; tourism's direct contribution to the Maltese economy is roughly a third of what it is in the Balearics.
Apart from a shared language, Catalonia and the Balearics form a fraternity based on perceived fiscal and financial injustice. Catalonia had wanted a different arrangement. It had wanted to be like the Basque Country (and Navarre). It had sought a system whereby it would keep all tax revenues - income tax and VAT - and then pay an agreed percentage to the state. Instead, it had to maintain the arrangement that exists for all Spain's regions, with the exception of the Basque Country and Navarre. Tax revenue is remitted to Madrid and is then paid back under the regional distribution system. The Balearics and Catalonia (and the Madrid region) lose out under this - they put more in than they receive. In other words, they help to subsidise the rest of Spain.
Setting aside all other considerations, Catalonia, in economic terms, is a viable state: very much a viable state. The same cannot be said for the Balearics. The numbers might look reasonable by comparison to, say, Malta, but they fail to hide the underlying weakness of the economy - it's that monoculture.
We have at present a collision of forces in the Balearics. One of these is the demand for diversification, a demand so old that it reinforces the questionability of how there can ever be meaningful diversification. The agitators provide absolutely no prescription. They argue in favour of a mostly blank sheet of paper. They offer no model to replace the apparently discredited model which obtains at present, save for vague allusions to new and information technologies.
The second force is sovereignty, or at least a force emanating from certain quarters - Més most obviously. David Abril, the chief promoter of a referendum of independence by 2030, says that 2030 is not far away. He's right, it isn't far away. He might hope that over this comparatively short timeframe the monoculture can be meaningfully diversified. Because if it isn't, any referendum would be predicated on dangerous economic grounds.
The third force is what has been happening in Catalonia, which has helped to motivate Més into issuing its clarion call for independence. Here is further fraternity, that of sovereignty of the components of the Catalan Lands, even if this fraternity is more mythical than real.
The last time that the Gadeso research foundation conducted a survey into identity was in September 2015. It discovered that 38% of respondents were in favour of the current system of autonomous government in the Balearics. This was the highest percentage of six options. Only four per cent were in favour of being given the chance to opt for independence. When asked whether they felt more Spanish or more Balearic, 51% rated this equally. Only Més and El Pi voters said they felt more Balearic than Spanish or just Balearic: El Pi is a sort of centre-right version of Més in terms of nationalist leanings. Neither party can point to high levels of popular support: Més 13.8% of the vote for the regional government in 2015; El Pi 7.96%.
The next question was island-specific. Do you identify most with the Balearics, your own island or with the Catalan Lands? Overwhelmingly, and in each case, it was with the individual island. Identity with the Catalan Lands was no more than two per cent.
These findings invalidate the Més proposition. Independence is not wished for. Being somehow beholden to Catalonia is most certainly rejected. The concept of the Balearics as a social entity is also highly questionable. The individual islands have long had their own identity. Even the granting of autonomy in 1983 didn't produce wild scenes of joy on the streets. Regional government is an administrative function as much if not more than any expression of identity.
A colossal change in attitude would be needed in the space of seventeen years if Més were to achieve its ambition. Just as significantly, there would need to be a major restructuring of the economic base by 2030 in order to make an independent Balearics even vaguely sensible as a separate economic entity. It's not going to happen.
Wednesday, October 04, 2017
MALLORCA TODAY - Weather Alcúdia and Pollensa 4 October 2017
Morning high (7.39am): 17.3C
Forecast high: 25C; UV: 5
Three-day forecast: 5 October - Sun, cloud, 26C; 6 October - Cloud, rain, 24C; 7 October - Cloud, sun, 22C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): North-Northeast 3 to 4.
Well, apparently it's going to be a sunny day, in which case there'll need to be something of a swift improvement from the current cloud.
Evening update (20.00): And the cloud did lift. Very pleasant - high of 26.7C.
Forecast high: 25C; UV: 5
Three-day forecast: 5 October - Sun, cloud, 26C; 6 October - Cloud, rain, 24C; 7 October - Cloud, sun, 22C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): North-Northeast 3 to 4.
Well, apparently it's going to be a sunny day, in which case there'll need to be something of a swift improvement from the current cloud.
Evening update (20.00): And the cloud did lift. Very pleasant - high of 26.7C.
The Wages Of Biel Barceló
Mallorca's hoteliers are mightily generous. They've agreed a 17% pay increase over four years. An agreement? More a case of the unions snapping their hands off before there was any chance to backtrack. The unions couldn't believe the offer. They'd been wanting 10%.
The agreement came out of the blue. The negotiations, we had understood, weren't due to start until after the season had finished. It was a surprise when the agreement was announced and an even bigger surprise when the size of the pay increase was known. The president of the Menorca hoteliers summed things up. It had all been done so quickly that it was a done deal by the time the other islands were told about it. Their hoteliers aren't bound by the agreement but they're not left with much wriggle room now that Mallorca has set the bar so high.
The surprise was compounded by the knowledge that there was a separate group of hoteliers which had been agitating for something modest. These were the smaller chains, the ones without pockets as deep as the like of Iberostar and Meliá. The smaller hotel chains are also less in the political firing-line than the large groups.
The agreement, with Inma Benito - now at Iberostar - leading the way for the Mallorca federation, looks increasingly as though it was a deliberate political manoeuvre. The government can suddenly be friends again. Moreover, Iberostar won't be troubled by any potential industrial unrest next year. Nor will the other hoteliers. It was the last thing, and I stress the last thing, that could have been contemplated. With everything else of a tourism nature that is flying around, strikes in hotels would have been the final straw.
Having signed on the dotted line with the unions, one headache for the tourism industry is removed, albeit that not all hoteliers are happy with the agreement and that the rest of the hospitality sector, such as the restaurants which are party to the same collective bargaining arrangement, have refused to sign. They had said that they couldn't accept the 10% let alone 17%.
Eliminating headaches is a way of defining this agreement. There are enough as it is, and the season for the travel fairs is almost upon the industry and the government. In London in November there can at least be assurance that there won't be strikes in hotels. There's going to need to be a heck of a lot more assurance.
One of those who will be attempting to give this assurance is Biel Barceló. As far as he is concerned, the wage agreement is a sign of the confidence that the hotel sector has in the future of the tourism industry in the Balearics. (The hoteliers in the other islands might like to note that he said the Balearics rather than just Mallorca.) Here's a message he can take to London. Look at the confidence; it's worth 17%.
Although the word from the Balearic government has been about trying to smooth the influx of tourists, it is understood that the tourism industry - tour operators, for example - was nevertheless surprised if not alarmed by what was being said last week about reducing numbers in the summer. Barceló has a lot of explaining to do when he gets to London, and the omens for his explanations aren't that positive.
He was explaining in The Bulletin at the weekend and he had my jaw dropping lower and lower. Only five or six complaints about the tourist tax? Only two thousand people might be deterred from coming because of a doubling of the rate? So it isn't a tax for dissuading tourists, when he has said in the past, inter alia, that the tax is a tool for regulating the flow of tourists? There won't be a doubling between October and April. Isn't October part of the main season? Hasn't the actual application of a winter rate still to be decided? The tourist tax is the lowest in Europe. Catalonia, anyone? Croatia, anybody else? Tax revenue of 74 million euros has been invested in the tourist industry. Where did that figure come from? And which tourist industry is this exactly? One that includes water systems in and around Maria and Llubi? Well, he is also the president of the committee which decides how the tourist tax is spent.
Then there was the killer. "It's not a question of having fewer people during the summer." If this isn't the question, then what is it? At the Night of Tourism last Wednesday, Barceló said: "We need to improve demand and increase quality, spending per tourist and the satisfaction of visitors." In order to be more sustainable, we have to "decrease in summer and move tourists to the winter".
Yes, the hoteliers have provided a good message (though what it means for prices is another matter), but as to the others - who can tell.
The agreement came out of the blue. The negotiations, we had understood, weren't due to start until after the season had finished. It was a surprise when the agreement was announced and an even bigger surprise when the size of the pay increase was known. The president of the Menorca hoteliers summed things up. It had all been done so quickly that it was a done deal by the time the other islands were told about it. Their hoteliers aren't bound by the agreement but they're not left with much wriggle room now that Mallorca has set the bar so high.
The surprise was compounded by the knowledge that there was a separate group of hoteliers which had been agitating for something modest. These were the smaller chains, the ones without pockets as deep as the like of Iberostar and Meliá. The smaller hotel chains are also less in the political firing-line than the large groups.
The agreement, with Inma Benito - now at Iberostar - leading the way for the Mallorca federation, looks increasingly as though it was a deliberate political manoeuvre. The government can suddenly be friends again. Moreover, Iberostar won't be troubled by any potential industrial unrest next year. Nor will the other hoteliers. It was the last thing, and I stress the last thing, that could have been contemplated. With everything else of a tourism nature that is flying around, strikes in hotels would have been the final straw.
Having signed on the dotted line with the unions, one headache for the tourism industry is removed, albeit that not all hoteliers are happy with the agreement and that the rest of the hospitality sector, such as the restaurants which are party to the same collective bargaining arrangement, have refused to sign. They had said that they couldn't accept the 10% let alone 17%.
Eliminating headaches is a way of defining this agreement. There are enough as it is, and the season for the travel fairs is almost upon the industry and the government. In London in November there can at least be assurance that there won't be strikes in hotels. There's going to need to be a heck of a lot more assurance.
One of those who will be attempting to give this assurance is Biel Barceló. As far as he is concerned, the wage agreement is a sign of the confidence that the hotel sector has in the future of the tourism industry in the Balearics. (The hoteliers in the other islands might like to note that he said the Balearics rather than just Mallorca.) Here's a message he can take to London. Look at the confidence; it's worth 17%.
Although the word from the Balearic government has been about trying to smooth the influx of tourists, it is understood that the tourism industry - tour operators, for example - was nevertheless surprised if not alarmed by what was being said last week about reducing numbers in the summer. Barceló has a lot of explaining to do when he gets to London, and the omens for his explanations aren't that positive.
He was explaining in The Bulletin at the weekend and he had my jaw dropping lower and lower. Only five or six complaints about the tourist tax? Only two thousand people might be deterred from coming because of a doubling of the rate? So it isn't a tax for dissuading tourists, when he has said in the past, inter alia, that the tax is a tool for regulating the flow of tourists? There won't be a doubling between October and April. Isn't October part of the main season? Hasn't the actual application of a winter rate still to be decided? The tourist tax is the lowest in Europe. Catalonia, anyone? Croatia, anybody else? Tax revenue of 74 million euros has been invested in the tourist industry. Where did that figure come from? And which tourist industry is this exactly? One that includes water systems in and around Maria and Llubi? Well, he is also the president of the committee which decides how the tourist tax is spent.
Then there was the killer. "It's not a question of having fewer people during the summer." If this isn't the question, then what is it? At the Night of Tourism last Wednesday, Barceló said: "We need to improve demand and increase quality, spending per tourist and the satisfaction of visitors." In order to be more sustainable, we have to "decrease in summer and move tourists to the winter".
Yes, the hoteliers have provided a good message (though what it means for prices is another matter), but as to the others - who can tell.
Tuesday, October 03, 2017
MALLORCA TODAY - Weather Alcúdia and Pollensa 3 October 2017
Morning high (6.20am): 17.5C
Forecast high: 25C; UV: 6
Three-day forecast: 4 October - Cloud, sun, 25C; 5 October - Cloud, sun, 26C; 6 October - Rain, 23C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): North-Northeast 3 to 4.
May prove to be rather like yesterday. Some risk of a shower. Should improve later.
Evening update (20.00): Yes, there was a shower. Not much sun. High of 24.2C.
Forecast high: 25C; UV: 6
Three-day forecast: 4 October - Cloud, sun, 25C; 5 October - Cloud, sun, 26C; 6 October - Rain, 23C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): North-Northeast 3 to 4.
May prove to be rather like yesterday. Some risk of a shower. Should improve later.
Evening update (20.00): Yes, there was a shower. Not much sun. High of 24.2C.
Ramon Gual, The Hero Of Valldemossa
In June 1535, the Holy Roman Emperor, Carlos V, aka Carlos I of Spain, came to Mallorca. He came and he wasn't alone. There were 40,000 soldiers as well on at least ninety different types of ship.
This military force was not for use in Mallorca. The Emperor decided to stop over. He wanted to visit the village that he had officially decreed to be the second city of Mallorca: the most loyal city of the Emperor. The honour had been bestowed twelve years earlier when the Emperor's forces had been on a military mission - the quashing of the Germanies uprising. Alcudia was that most loyal of cities. It was where the nobility had been able to take refuge. In October 1522 an imperial naval squadron had arrived in the bay of Pollensa. The uprising would be conclusively ended in July the following year. The Emperor wanted to show his thanks to Alcudia. He didn't stay long. He was on his way to Tunis, to liberate the city from the Ottoman admiral, Barbarossa.
The Emperor's interest in Mallorca was otherwise minimal. The island could have done with some of those troops having stayed around. Barbarossa died in 1546. He was succeeded as supreme commander of the Ottoman naval forces in the Mediterranean by Turgut Reis - Dragut, "the greatest pirate warrior of all time", it has been said.
We are very familiar with Dragut. How could we not be? Every August he reappears on the streets of Pollensa to re-enact what was a failed mission in 1550. Dragut is the best known of the Ottoman pirates, more so than Uchali, aka Occhiali, Oxiali, Uluj Ali, he of the Soller re-enactment.
The Mallorcan coast was under constant threat from the Ottomans by the mid-sixteenth century. The year after Dragut's failure in Pollensa, the Turks landed at Cap Pinar in Alcudia. While Joan Mas is remembered as the hero of Pollensa, it was Bartomeu Maura, the lieutenant in Alcudia, who was the victor the following year. He was helped by 150 men of Alcudia.
This episode in Alcudia, as with another one in 1558, has generally been forgotten. The same was the case with what happened on 1 October 1552. Four hundred years after this, there was a commemoration. It was an initiative of the town hall and of the painter Josep Coll Bardolet. The town hall in question was Valldemossa, and it marked the occasion by naming a street Ramon Gual. He was Valldemossa's Joan Mas, the captain who helped to eventually save the village.
The story is of a force of 36 men who faced 400 Turks, who had landed at the Cala d'en Claret. These invaders sacked the village. They killed Aina Creus, the grandmother of Catalina Thomàs, La Beata. The fact that the local people faced such apparently overwhelming opposition can make this story sound implausible, but they aren't as imbalanced as they were once reported. In 1755, the Glorias de Mallorca was published. This drew on the work of Vicente Mut, who was a military man but also an historian. He was in fact the chronicler of the Kingdom of Mallorca from 1641 to 1687. According to Mut, there were 500 "Moros" and just 28 men.
A later publication, the third volume of Historia general del reino de Mallorca (1841), elaborates on the previous. Ramon Gual by now had 35 men, and a reason why there were so few was because it was a Saturday and many had left to sell fruit (one guesses in Palma). The Moors were guided by a "renegade foreigner" named Pedro Valenciano, who had lived in Valldemossa for a number of years and knew all the lanes and ways even at night. The Moors entered the village. It was a curiosity that they didn't enter the Charterhouse. Otherwise, they went about sacking the place and rounded up 400 prisoners.
Gual was able to watch the Moors withdraw. Aware of their ships having moved to a new position and of guessing they would take a particular route, he "fired the hearts of his men", and there were by now 28, as the others had been dispersed to take up watch functions. Invoking the help of Sant Jordi (Saint George), they charged the Moors, took them by surprise, so that they started to flee in confusion. The men knew the rugged and difficult ways better than the Moors. Many were beheaded as they tried to get away.
There is more to it, but this gives something of an idea as to what supposedly happened on that day in 1552. And the events are now, like Pollensa and Soller, re-enacted. When introducing this simulation in 2014, it was decided that it should be on the first Saturday of October, just as the original was. So, the fiesta for the Moors and Christians is this coming Saturday. In addition to the battle, the programme has changed somewhat to as it was in 1952, when there were pipers, "globos grotescos" (bigheads of some type), a float parade, a Chopin concert and a verse contest between glosadors. Which just goes to show that current-day fiesta traditions, which struggled to be maintained for much of the Franco period, were observed.
This military force was not for use in Mallorca. The Emperor decided to stop over. He wanted to visit the village that he had officially decreed to be the second city of Mallorca: the most loyal city of the Emperor. The honour had been bestowed twelve years earlier when the Emperor's forces had been on a military mission - the quashing of the Germanies uprising. Alcudia was that most loyal of cities. It was where the nobility had been able to take refuge. In October 1522 an imperial naval squadron had arrived in the bay of Pollensa. The uprising would be conclusively ended in July the following year. The Emperor wanted to show his thanks to Alcudia. He didn't stay long. He was on his way to Tunis, to liberate the city from the Ottoman admiral, Barbarossa.
The Emperor's interest in Mallorca was otherwise minimal. The island could have done with some of those troops having stayed around. Barbarossa died in 1546. He was succeeded as supreme commander of the Ottoman naval forces in the Mediterranean by Turgut Reis - Dragut, "the greatest pirate warrior of all time", it has been said.
We are very familiar with Dragut. How could we not be? Every August he reappears on the streets of Pollensa to re-enact what was a failed mission in 1550. Dragut is the best known of the Ottoman pirates, more so than Uchali, aka Occhiali, Oxiali, Uluj Ali, he of the Soller re-enactment.
The Mallorcan coast was under constant threat from the Ottomans by the mid-sixteenth century. The year after Dragut's failure in Pollensa, the Turks landed at Cap Pinar in Alcudia. While Joan Mas is remembered as the hero of Pollensa, it was Bartomeu Maura, the lieutenant in Alcudia, who was the victor the following year. He was helped by 150 men of Alcudia.
This episode in Alcudia, as with another one in 1558, has generally been forgotten. The same was the case with what happened on 1 October 1552. Four hundred years after this, there was a commemoration. It was an initiative of the town hall and of the painter Josep Coll Bardolet. The town hall in question was Valldemossa, and it marked the occasion by naming a street Ramon Gual. He was Valldemossa's Joan Mas, the captain who helped to eventually save the village.
The story is of a force of 36 men who faced 400 Turks, who had landed at the Cala d'en Claret. These invaders sacked the village. They killed Aina Creus, the grandmother of Catalina Thomàs, La Beata. The fact that the local people faced such apparently overwhelming opposition can make this story sound implausible, but they aren't as imbalanced as they were once reported. In 1755, the Glorias de Mallorca was published. This drew on the work of Vicente Mut, who was a military man but also an historian. He was in fact the chronicler of the Kingdom of Mallorca from 1641 to 1687. According to Mut, there were 500 "Moros" and just 28 men.
A later publication, the third volume of Historia general del reino de Mallorca (1841), elaborates on the previous. Ramon Gual by now had 35 men, and a reason why there were so few was because it was a Saturday and many had left to sell fruit (one guesses in Palma). The Moors were guided by a "renegade foreigner" named Pedro Valenciano, who had lived in Valldemossa for a number of years and knew all the lanes and ways even at night. The Moors entered the village. It was a curiosity that they didn't enter the Charterhouse. Otherwise, they went about sacking the place and rounded up 400 prisoners.
Gual was able to watch the Moors withdraw. Aware of their ships having moved to a new position and of guessing they would take a particular route, he "fired the hearts of his men", and there were by now 28, as the others had been dispersed to take up watch functions. Invoking the help of Sant Jordi (Saint George), they charged the Moors, took them by surprise, so that they started to flee in confusion. The men knew the rugged and difficult ways better than the Moors. Many were beheaded as they tried to get away.
There is more to it, but this gives something of an idea as to what supposedly happened on that day in 1552. And the events are now, like Pollensa and Soller, re-enacted. When introducing this simulation in 2014, it was decided that it should be on the first Saturday of October, just as the original was. So, the fiesta for the Moors and Christians is this coming Saturday. In addition to the battle, the programme has changed somewhat to as it was in 1952, when there were pipers, "globos grotescos" (bigheads of some type), a float parade, a Chopin concert and a verse contest between glosadors. Which just goes to show that current-day fiesta traditions, which struggled to be maintained for much of the Franco period, were observed.
Monday, October 02, 2017
MALLORCA TODAY - Weather Alcúdia and Pollensa 2 October 2017
Morning high (8.01am): 16.6C
Forecast high: 24C; UV: 6
Three-day forecast: 3 October - Cloud, sun, 25C; 4 October - Cloud, sun, 25C; 5 October - Sun, cloud, 26C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): North 4 to 5.
Another cloudy morning. Showers possible. Sunny spells later. The rest of the week is much the same sort of mix.
Evening update (20.00): There was some drizzle for a time. Little sight of the sun. High of 22.1C.
Forecast high: 24C; UV: 6
Three-day forecast: 3 October - Cloud, sun, 25C; 4 October - Cloud, sun, 25C; 5 October - Sun, cloud, 26C
Sea conditions (northern Mallorca; Alcúdia and Pollensa bays to 20.00): North 4 to 5.
Another cloudy morning. Showers possible. Sunny spells later. The rest of the week is much the same sort of mix.
Evening update (20.00): There was some drizzle for a time. Little sight of the sun. High of 22.1C.
Catalonia: Spirit Of The Beehive
In July 1909 there was an uprising in Barcelona and other cities in Catalonia. Workers revolted against being called up as reservists for Spain's war in Morocco. This developed into a revolt against the military, against colonialism, against the church and against Spain. The Guardia Civil fired at demonstrators on Las Ramblas. The Spanish government declared a state of war. The army was sent in. Troops were moved from cities such as Valencia because the local soldiers refused to shoot at their own people. Up to 150 civilians were killed; there were eight army and police casualties. Five ringleaders were executed. There was widespread condemnation of events in Europe. The king, Alfonso XIII, stung by the foreign reaction, dismissed the prime minister, the Mallorcan, Antoni Maura. The whole episode lives in the memory as Tragic Week, Setmana Tràgica.
There are any number of historical examples which can be drawn on to explain the tragedy of Catalonia, a play of epic proportions that has been enacted over centuries, one without end, constantly repeating its plots, shifting in time and context. On Sunday, over 800 people were injured. There were at least no deaths. There will be no executions. King Felipe will not dismiss Mariano Rajoy. Contemporary times require contemporary outcomes, but contemporary times inspire even greater reaction. Gil Scott-Heron was not right: the revolution is televised. It is captured on phones. It is on social networks. The condemnation comes from societies who can witness for themselves. The mute words of Europe's politicians aren't needed, albeit that they should be. What occurred on Sunday was a tragic event for Catalonia, a tragic event for Spain.
Victor Erice's 1973 film The Spirit of the Beehive took as its symbolic theme the emotional disintegration of Spain during the Civil War. This symbolism was captured by one family's experiences. Families were split and divided. In the Franco years there was silence that repressed these emotions, prevented the experiences being reconciled. So much symbolism. Families in Catalonia divided. Catalonia divided. Spain divided. Emotions high as disintegration - that of Spain - is unveiled amidst scenes of police brutality, of the Mossos pitted against the forces of the state, reluctant to turn on their own people, of firefighters in cordons attacked by these same police.
Invoking legality and the Constitution no longer suffices. Deeds have been done. Blame can be attached and will be attached. In the recent past, had Mariano Rajoy acceded to Catalonia claims made by Artur Mas for greater autonomy, especially of a financial nature, Sunday would never have happened. Rajoy's unwillingness to show favouritism in the unending tragedy of Catalonia inspired Sunday. Mas was not a radical. He became so. He passed the baton to Carles Puigdemont, abetted by a more extreme left. I am reassured that my assessment is correct. A friend who has lived in Barcelona for almost forty years and who lectures on politics said in an email that had Mas received a "few more shekels", all of this could have been avoided. The economic affairs minister, Luis de Guindos, attempted to play the autonomy and financial cards. But it was too late.
It used to be all about autonomy. Independence wasn't, even ten years ago, something that Catalonia's people were agitating for. Support for it ran at about 12%. On Sunday there was 90% yes. The referendum was obviously a fiasco. It couldn't have been anything else, given the removal of ballot boxes, the suggestions of double voting, the fact of illegality. The result will of course be questioned, but the numbers are almost irrelevant. Puigdemont has a mandate.
How ever greater was this tragedy when one thinks back a few weeks. In the same city that had experienced terror and where there was - for some fleeting moments -a unity of Spain and Catalonia and of monarchy and republicanism, there were now the scenes of the Guardia Civil reminiscent of Tragic Week. What in God's name was Rajoy thinking? He has served up independence. He has aroused international sympathy. He should go. He has to go. He cannot be the one to attempt to plot the way from here. Felipe won't do it. Someone else must.
And what of Spain in the eyes of the world? That carefully crafted Marca España brand has been wounded along with the 800. Greater damage has been caused than that by terrorists. The brutality had echoes of 15-M and the evictions from the squares. The gag law was brought in to prevent repetition, but it was irrelevant. With or without that law (a Rajoy law), criticised for being inherently anti-democratic, what happened on Sunday would still have happened.
A Tragic Sunday, and now it is essential that sense prevails. If not, the spirit of the beehive will fester. It has been allowed to develop. For a few shekels more, it would not have done.
There are any number of historical examples which can be drawn on to explain the tragedy of Catalonia, a play of epic proportions that has been enacted over centuries, one without end, constantly repeating its plots, shifting in time and context. On Sunday, over 800 people were injured. There were at least no deaths. There will be no executions. King Felipe will not dismiss Mariano Rajoy. Contemporary times require contemporary outcomes, but contemporary times inspire even greater reaction. Gil Scott-Heron was not right: the revolution is televised. It is captured on phones. It is on social networks. The condemnation comes from societies who can witness for themselves. The mute words of Europe's politicians aren't needed, albeit that they should be. What occurred on Sunday was a tragic event for Catalonia, a tragic event for Spain.
Victor Erice's 1973 film The Spirit of the Beehive took as its symbolic theme the emotional disintegration of Spain during the Civil War. This symbolism was captured by one family's experiences. Families were split and divided. In the Franco years there was silence that repressed these emotions, prevented the experiences being reconciled. So much symbolism. Families in Catalonia divided. Catalonia divided. Spain divided. Emotions high as disintegration - that of Spain - is unveiled amidst scenes of police brutality, of the Mossos pitted against the forces of the state, reluctant to turn on their own people, of firefighters in cordons attacked by these same police.
Invoking legality and the Constitution no longer suffices. Deeds have been done. Blame can be attached and will be attached. In the recent past, had Mariano Rajoy acceded to Catalonia claims made by Artur Mas for greater autonomy, especially of a financial nature, Sunday would never have happened. Rajoy's unwillingness to show favouritism in the unending tragedy of Catalonia inspired Sunday. Mas was not a radical. He became so. He passed the baton to Carles Puigdemont, abetted by a more extreme left. I am reassured that my assessment is correct. A friend who has lived in Barcelona for almost forty years and who lectures on politics said in an email that had Mas received a "few more shekels", all of this could have been avoided. The economic affairs minister, Luis de Guindos, attempted to play the autonomy and financial cards. But it was too late.
It used to be all about autonomy. Independence wasn't, even ten years ago, something that Catalonia's people were agitating for. Support for it ran at about 12%. On Sunday there was 90% yes. The referendum was obviously a fiasco. It couldn't have been anything else, given the removal of ballot boxes, the suggestions of double voting, the fact of illegality. The result will of course be questioned, but the numbers are almost irrelevant. Puigdemont has a mandate.
How ever greater was this tragedy when one thinks back a few weeks. In the same city that had experienced terror and where there was - for some fleeting moments -a unity of Spain and Catalonia and of monarchy and republicanism, there were now the scenes of the Guardia Civil reminiscent of Tragic Week. What in God's name was Rajoy thinking? He has served up independence. He has aroused international sympathy. He should go. He has to go. He cannot be the one to attempt to plot the way from here. Felipe won't do it. Someone else must.
And what of Spain in the eyes of the world? That carefully crafted Marca España brand has been wounded along with the 800. Greater damage has been caused than that by terrorists. The brutality had echoes of 15-M and the evictions from the squares. The gag law was brought in to prevent repetition, but it was irrelevant. With or without that law (a Rajoy law), criticised for being inherently anti-democratic, what happened on Sunday would still have happened.
A Tragic Sunday, and now it is essential that sense prevails. If not, the spirit of the beehive will fester. It has been allowed to develop. For a few shekels more, it would not have done.
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