Friday, February 17, 2012
MALLORCA TODAY - Breast cancer screening affected by health cuts
Cuts to the regional health service in Mallorca are being blamed for delays and difficulties in making appointments for breast cancer screening for women between the ages of 50 and 69. The health authority says that it is working on modifications to the screening programme to improve its efficiency, but meanwhile appointments at Inca hospital are not being made and have to be at either Son Llàtzer or Manacor hospital.
MALLORCA TODAY - Weather Alcúdia and Pollensa 17 February 2012
A dingy sort of morning, quiet on the wind front and a high of 9.3C at 08:00. The day's maximum should be around 13, a similar value due to be repeated over the weekend with a mix of sun and cloud.
Afternoon update: The morning's greyness disappeared to be replaced for a time by sun but then it was back to greyness and also some rain, followed by some more sun. A mixed bag in other words. The day's high has been 14.3C.
Afternoon update: The morning's greyness disappeared to be replaced for a time by sun but then it was back to greyness and also some rain, followed by some more sun. A mixed bag in other words. The day's high has been 14.3C.
Mallorca's Big Freeze
Do you remember the winter of 2012? This will be the question posed in years to come when tales of the Mallorcan winter will have reached levels of preposterous exaggeration and will have entered folklore in granting 2012 the title of the big Mallorcan freeze.
Unfortunately, for Mallorca's northern parts and some other parts, the big freeze was something of an anti-freeze. Yes, it was cold, but snow? Too few snowflakes to mention. It snowed. A bit. And not as much as it did two years ago. But nevertheless, the year of the big freeze will find its way into the annals of what was, for anyone on much of mainland Europe, no more than a slight cold snap.
1956 was a different kettle of fish. And the chances were that the fish were left unmolested for some three weeks back then. So much did it snow that it lingered for a week on pavements (or what would have passed for pavements 56 years ago) in places such as Can Picafort. This, at least, is what a "picaforter" tells me, though he clearly isn't 56 years old.
Nevertheless, 1956 was Mallorca's 1962-1963, the winter in Britain when the country came to a standstill for months on end. And do you remember the winter of 1962-1963? I do. The big freeze was no myth. In 1956 in Mallorca, though, there was snow to a depth of 60 centimetres up in the mountains. Nearly two feet in old money. That was a fair old amount of snow, especially for an island where it isn't meant to snow, yet where it does with reasonable regularity.
But back to the fish. At this time of the year, the fishermen expect to take to their boats and go and hound the little "jonquillo" goby fish, catch them in abundance, haul them in and let them be given a sound old battering by the local restaurants. For 1956, the tales are probably so tall that the sea froze. It hasn't frozen in 2012, but marine conditions have been so bad that the jonquillo have been left to swim around rather longer than they might normally do.
The fishermen have been just one set of victims of Mallorca's anti-freeze 2012. Endless photos of what may or may not have been snow posted onto Facebook have been joined by endless other tales of woe. School buses couldn't make it through, planes were grounded because Palma airport had no de-icer, and staff at Pollensa town hall have been forced to wear mittens.
This latter tale of woe isn't, however, anything to do with the anti-freeze of 2012. It has to do with the inadequacy of the heating system. A couple of million or more spent on renovating Pollensa town hall and someone forgot that it can get cold in the old buildings with extremely high ceilings in Mallorca. Clearly this someone hadn't been around in 1956. He or she should have had a word with the bloke in Can Picafort.
Or, he or she should have had a word with the chap from Pollensa's tourist office when it used to be located in Sant Domingo, another ancient stone edifice with high ceilings. One afternoon I found him with gloves on, a heavy coat and a scarf, huddled next to a useless oil-fired radiator. He could barely speak. At some point, maybe in 56 years time when there is another "record" cold snap, they'll have finally got round to realising that most buildings in Mallorca are utterly hopeless in anything other than 40 degrees in summer, and even then most of them are also hopeless.
Still, at least at Pollensa town hall and certainly in the seas in the north of the island, there was water. Unlike in Sa Pobla where lightning struck and the town's water supply went down. Had this water outage lasted longer than much of one day, they could have rung up the ruddy great desalination plant in Alcúdia that no one uses, except for Pollensa. They don't have to worry about wells being put out of action in Pollensa as they are as inadequate as the town hall's heating system; hence a reliance on salty water turned drinkable, which one hopes isn't full of jonquillo because the fishermen haven't been able to get out for a couple of weeks.
Were the town hall to have a decent heating system, it might be because it runs on natural gas. And this, gas, is another tale of the big anti-freeze of 2012. Record gas consumption levels have been registered, say Endesa proudly, conveniently ignoring the fact that records have been in existence for no more than a couple of years, the length of time there has actually been natural gas on Mallorca.
Yes, we will remember the winter of 2012. We won't be allowed to forget it thanks to Mallorcan "veterans" who will remind everyone of the anti-freeze in years to come when the question is asked as to what the weather's like in February. And if they don't remind everyone, there will be something wrong. Like they will be saying it's 20 degrees plus and glorious. And the fact is that they wouldn't be wrong. Because this is what it is likely to be in a week's time. Do you remember the winter of 2012? What winter?
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Unfortunately, for Mallorca's northern parts and some other parts, the big freeze was something of an anti-freeze. Yes, it was cold, but snow? Too few snowflakes to mention. It snowed. A bit. And not as much as it did two years ago. But nevertheless, the year of the big freeze will find its way into the annals of what was, for anyone on much of mainland Europe, no more than a slight cold snap.
1956 was a different kettle of fish. And the chances were that the fish were left unmolested for some three weeks back then. So much did it snow that it lingered for a week on pavements (or what would have passed for pavements 56 years ago) in places such as Can Picafort. This, at least, is what a "picaforter" tells me, though he clearly isn't 56 years old.
Nevertheless, 1956 was Mallorca's 1962-1963, the winter in Britain when the country came to a standstill for months on end. And do you remember the winter of 1962-1963? I do. The big freeze was no myth. In 1956 in Mallorca, though, there was snow to a depth of 60 centimetres up in the mountains. Nearly two feet in old money. That was a fair old amount of snow, especially for an island where it isn't meant to snow, yet where it does with reasonable regularity.
But back to the fish. At this time of the year, the fishermen expect to take to their boats and go and hound the little "jonquillo" goby fish, catch them in abundance, haul them in and let them be given a sound old battering by the local restaurants. For 1956, the tales are probably so tall that the sea froze. It hasn't frozen in 2012, but marine conditions have been so bad that the jonquillo have been left to swim around rather longer than they might normally do.
The fishermen have been just one set of victims of Mallorca's anti-freeze 2012. Endless photos of what may or may not have been snow posted onto Facebook have been joined by endless other tales of woe. School buses couldn't make it through, planes were grounded because Palma airport had no de-icer, and staff at Pollensa town hall have been forced to wear mittens.
This latter tale of woe isn't, however, anything to do with the anti-freeze of 2012. It has to do with the inadequacy of the heating system. A couple of million or more spent on renovating Pollensa town hall and someone forgot that it can get cold in the old buildings with extremely high ceilings in Mallorca. Clearly this someone hadn't been around in 1956. He or she should have had a word with the bloke in Can Picafort.
Or, he or she should have had a word with the chap from Pollensa's tourist office when it used to be located in Sant Domingo, another ancient stone edifice with high ceilings. One afternoon I found him with gloves on, a heavy coat and a scarf, huddled next to a useless oil-fired radiator. He could barely speak. At some point, maybe in 56 years time when there is another "record" cold snap, they'll have finally got round to realising that most buildings in Mallorca are utterly hopeless in anything other than 40 degrees in summer, and even then most of them are also hopeless.
Still, at least at Pollensa town hall and certainly in the seas in the north of the island, there was water. Unlike in Sa Pobla where lightning struck and the town's water supply went down. Had this water outage lasted longer than much of one day, they could have rung up the ruddy great desalination plant in Alcúdia that no one uses, except for Pollensa. They don't have to worry about wells being put out of action in Pollensa as they are as inadequate as the town hall's heating system; hence a reliance on salty water turned drinkable, which one hopes isn't full of jonquillo because the fishermen haven't been able to get out for a couple of weeks.
Were the town hall to have a decent heating system, it might be because it runs on natural gas. And this, gas, is another tale of the big anti-freeze of 2012. Record gas consumption levels have been registered, say Endesa proudly, conveniently ignoring the fact that records have been in existence for no more than a couple of years, the length of time there has actually been natural gas on Mallorca.
Yes, we will remember the winter of 2012. We won't be allowed to forget it thanks to Mallorcan "veterans" who will remind everyone of the anti-freeze in years to come when the question is asked as to what the weather's like in February. And if they don't remind everyone, there will be something wrong. Like they will be saying it's 20 degrees plus and glorious. And the fact is that they wouldn't be wrong. Because this is what it is likely to be in a week's time. Do you remember the winter of 2012? What winter?
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
MALLORCA TODAY - Inauguration of rail electrification
The electrification of the rail line between Palma and Inca has been inaugurated today, the regional government voicing its intention to also electrify the line's branches to Sa Pobla and Manacor. Rail workers meanwhile are none too impressed with the celebration, as the electrification has been in operation for more than two months.
MALLORCA TODAY - Petrol prices reach new record high
The increase in petrol prices in Spain continues. A litre of petrol now costs almost 10% more than it did a year ago, the typical cost for Super 95 being 1.392 euros.
MALLORCA TODAY - Human error blamed for Formentera ferry accident
Ibiza maritime officials are suggesting that human error and excessive speed were probably to blame for the Maverick Dos ferry (operated by Baleària) running aground in Formentera yesterday evening. Only one person on board was slightly injured (there were only 27 people in total on the ferry), and measures to prevent any spillage have been taken.
Further information regarding the accident establishes that the safety procedures for taking passengers off the ferry worked perfectly and without incident, the ferry's captain and first officer remaining till the last to effect the evacuation. There also appears to have been no rupture of fuel lines that might create a spillage.
Further information regarding the accident establishes that the safety procedures for taking passengers off the ferry worked perfectly and without incident, the ferry's captain and first officer remaining till the last to effect the evacuation. There also appears to have been no rupture of fuel lines that might create a spillage.
MALLORCA TODAY - Town hall staff have to wear mittens
Pollensa town hall may have been renovated at significant cost, but its heating system doesn't work in anything like the way it should do. During the recent cold weather, staff have had to resort to wearing mittens and putting blankets over their legs and to employing heaters that bring with them the risk of fire.
(Personally, I found the building to be more than adequately heated when I was there recently. Mind you, this was in the mayor's office.)
(Personally, I found the building to be more than adequately heated when I was there recently. Mind you, this was in the mayor's office.)
MALLORCA TODAY - Lightning strike leaves Sa Pobla without water
An odd victim of bad weather. The storm of Tuesday (14 February) afternoon led to a lightning strike on Sa Pobla's water plant, knocking out two pumping engines and leaving the town without drinking water supply for some 17 hours.
MALLORCA TODAY - Weather Alcúdia and Pollensa 16 February 2012
A blue and cloudless sky, a calm morning and a local high of 7.4C at 08:00. So things are back to what might be hoped for the time being, though tomorrow is due to be cloudy again. Day highs expected to be 13 or 14 over the next few days.
Afternoon update: Positively balmy by comparison with recent weather. Sunny all day with a high of 14.3C, the sun has felt quite warm.
Afternoon update: Positively balmy by comparison with recent weather. Sunny all day with a high of 14.3C, the sun has felt quite warm.
Re-thinking Resorts: Magalluf and hotels
"To build four hotels with 2000 rooms, where on earth are they going to find the people to fill them?"
This was a question posed by Sue of Magalluf the other day in "The Bulletin". It's a reasonable question. And to an inability to fill existing hotels can be added anti-social behaviour in the resort as a reason for questioning the wisdom of the new development.
Though plans for these hotels may have been in existence, the government had implied that its revision of the tourism law did not envisage new developments. Indeed, all the noises that have come from the government, and the previous one, had suggested that there was a preference for a reduction in hotel stock, as has been the plan for Playa de Palma.
Now, however, we have a situation in which, in addition to four new hotels in Magalluf, there will be new complexes in Campos and Capdepera, both of them established in principle for some years.
In Magalluf's case, there is, unlike for example the luxury development contemplated for Canyamel in Capdepera, a marketing problem. It is one of image. Both the new Viva hotels and the overhaul of current hotels that Meliá is to embark upon come up against Magalluf's reputation.
Magalluf is a cracking resort, primarily because it is so bonkers, but to suggest that it enjoys a reputation for more than just the good old family holiday and the lads and ladettes on tour would be wide of the mark. If Meliá and Viva are going to make their plans work, they are also going to have to work damned hard on re-branding the resort. Are they aware of the "Shagalluf" nickname?
If Magalluf is to undergo a four-starring, then it needs to acquire a four-star reputation. Meliá and Viva will doubtless achieve this in their own developments, but a dog of a resort having previously been given a bad name creates a stumbling-block. Meliá may be able to spin a Sol Calvià Resort name within a resort, but they can Sol, Calvià and Resort all they like; Magalluf is Magalluf. Changing the style of the resort by changing the style of hotels will ultimately, one would imagine the thinking is going, change the style of tourists, but you have to attract them in the first place. This will require more than just some new hotels.
It won't be easy, but it may be easier if this is a reconceptualisation of a resort with new or different markets in mind, i.e. not predominantly British. It is just conceivable to consider that within ten years Magalluf will be a very different place with a very different tourism profile. But old habits die hard, and no more so than among tour operators for whom Magalluf has represented a solid product for a solid and traditional tourism market, namely the Brits.
Notwithstanding the challenge of re-branding, filling hotel places might not be the problem it appears. The tourism law will permit change of use of some hotels. Meliá already contemplate this in their redevelopment. If this change of use is to residential use, then the existing hotel stock is whittled down and is replaced by the new. It is quite a sophisticated solution to a problem in Mallorca, which is one of land that is designated for either tourism or residential purposes.
By changing the use of existing real estate, the availability of residential accommodation can increase. New hotel developments gobble up some new land, but relatively little. The total number of hotel places may therefore end up being roughly the same as at present, so filling them will be no more of a problem than it currently is.
It is a neat idea. Though the government may not have been entirely accurate when it suggested that there would not be new developments, the new law does make a great deal of sense: freeing up real estate for living purposes while also setting in motion an improvement in hotel quality. But change of use is key to the whole thing, and here the government has fallen victim to the interests of the town halls. It has been forced to bow to pressure that means town halls, and not it, will still have the final say as to whether there is a change of use or not. Calvià might not pose too much of an obstacle if Carlos Delgado can still wield some influence, but this can't be relied on. The government should have had the courage to tell the town halls to get lost.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
This was a question posed by Sue of Magalluf the other day in "The Bulletin". It's a reasonable question. And to an inability to fill existing hotels can be added anti-social behaviour in the resort as a reason for questioning the wisdom of the new development.
Though plans for these hotels may have been in existence, the government had implied that its revision of the tourism law did not envisage new developments. Indeed, all the noises that have come from the government, and the previous one, had suggested that there was a preference for a reduction in hotel stock, as has been the plan for Playa de Palma.
Now, however, we have a situation in which, in addition to four new hotels in Magalluf, there will be new complexes in Campos and Capdepera, both of them established in principle for some years.
In Magalluf's case, there is, unlike for example the luxury development contemplated for Canyamel in Capdepera, a marketing problem. It is one of image. Both the new Viva hotels and the overhaul of current hotels that Meliá is to embark upon come up against Magalluf's reputation.
Magalluf is a cracking resort, primarily because it is so bonkers, but to suggest that it enjoys a reputation for more than just the good old family holiday and the lads and ladettes on tour would be wide of the mark. If Meliá and Viva are going to make their plans work, they are also going to have to work damned hard on re-branding the resort. Are they aware of the "Shagalluf" nickname?
If Magalluf is to undergo a four-starring, then it needs to acquire a four-star reputation. Meliá and Viva will doubtless achieve this in their own developments, but a dog of a resort having previously been given a bad name creates a stumbling-block. Meliá may be able to spin a Sol Calvià Resort name within a resort, but they can Sol, Calvià and Resort all they like; Magalluf is Magalluf. Changing the style of the resort by changing the style of hotels will ultimately, one would imagine the thinking is going, change the style of tourists, but you have to attract them in the first place. This will require more than just some new hotels.
It won't be easy, but it may be easier if this is a reconceptualisation of a resort with new or different markets in mind, i.e. not predominantly British. It is just conceivable to consider that within ten years Magalluf will be a very different place with a very different tourism profile. But old habits die hard, and no more so than among tour operators for whom Magalluf has represented a solid product for a solid and traditional tourism market, namely the Brits.
Notwithstanding the challenge of re-branding, filling hotel places might not be the problem it appears. The tourism law will permit change of use of some hotels. Meliá already contemplate this in their redevelopment. If this change of use is to residential use, then the existing hotel stock is whittled down and is replaced by the new. It is quite a sophisticated solution to a problem in Mallorca, which is one of land that is designated for either tourism or residential purposes.
By changing the use of existing real estate, the availability of residential accommodation can increase. New hotel developments gobble up some new land, but relatively little. The total number of hotel places may therefore end up being roughly the same as at present, so filling them will be no more of a problem than it currently is.
It is a neat idea. Though the government may not have been entirely accurate when it suggested that there would not be new developments, the new law does make a great deal of sense: freeing up real estate for living purposes while also setting in motion an improvement in hotel quality. But change of use is key to the whole thing, and here the government has fallen victim to the interests of the town halls. It has been forced to bow to pressure that means town halls, and not it, will still have the final say as to whether there is a change of use or not. Calvià might not pose too much of an obstacle if Carlos Delgado can still wield some influence, but this can't be relied on. The government should have had the courage to tell the town halls to get lost.
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
MALLORCA TODAY - Bauzá labelled a fascist by union leader
Lorenzo Bravo, secretary-general of the UGT union in the Balearics has called President Bauzá a fascist, later explaining that it was not the intention to insult the president but to draw attention to a call for him to set up a dialogue with the unions as part of the tackling of the islands' economic crisis. This is not the first time that Bravo has levelled an insult at the government. In September last year, he branded the Partido Popular pigs and had to publicly apologise when faced with possible legal action.
Update (17 February): The government has instructed the Balearics Attorney-General to consider legal action against Bravo.
Update (17 February): The government has instructed the Balearics Attorney-General to consider legal action against Bravo.
MALLORCA TODAY - Mallorca breaks records for gas consumption
For two successive days, Monday and Tuesday this week, the amount of gas used by consumers in Mallorca has reached record levels. On account of the cold temperatures, Tuesday's consumption outstripped that on Monday. The first fortnight of February saw total consumption go up by over 50% compared with the same two weeks last year.
(It should be pointed out that these records are for gas supply and not butane. As such, therefore, the records are only recent as there has only recently been gas supply in Mallorca.)
(It should be pointed out that these records are for gas supply and not butane. As such, therefore, the records are only recent as there has only recently been gas supply in Mallorca.)
MALLORCA TODAY - Call for Princess Cristina to be subpoenaed
Manos Limpias, the union that has been closely involved with the case against Judge Baltasar Garzón for overstepping his authority in seeking to investigate crimes against humanity during the Franco era and which had previously sought to include evidence from Valencia in the case against the Duke of Palma (Iñaki Urdangarin) currently being heard in Palma, has now called on the judge in the "caso Palma Arena" to subpoena the Duke's wife Princess Cristina, daughter of King Juan Carlos.
MALLORCA TODAY - Inflation falls in the Balearics
There has been a fall of 2.1% in the annual inflation rate in the Balearics and a specific fall of 0.6% in January. Over the past year the greatest price rises have been for transport and entertainment and the greatest falls have been for telecommunications and medicines.
MALLORCA TODAY - Taxi fares on the rise
Taxi fares are set to rise by up to 5% in Mallorca and other Balearic islands, and meantime there are particular issues in Palma where taxi drivers are planning to protest against town hall policies of liberalisation of the service.
In another development, taxis are now to be allowed to pick up passengers outside of the municipalities in which they are licensed.
In another development, taxis are now to be allowed to pick up passengers outside of the municipalities in which they are licensed.
MALLORCA TODAY - Bad weather affects potatoes and fishing
Previous concerns that the first Sa Pobla potato harvest would be harmed by the cold weather have been exacerbated by what might be the eventual cost. Electricity consumption has shot up and has had to be made before midnight, from which time producers enjoy off-peak tariffs. Meanwhile, fishermen at the ports in northern Mallorca, especially those who use traditional craft, have been unable to operate for around two weeks because of marine conditions, so interrupting specific catches, notably that of the "jonquillo" (transparent goby fish) that is in season until March.
MALLORCA TODAY - Weather Alcúdia and Pollensa 15 February 2012
Another wet and grey start but feeling milder, thunder and lightning later on yesterday suggesting the arrival of some warmer air. Local high only just under 8 degrees at 08:00, but it went up to almost 11C overnight. Things are meant to be sunnier today.
Afternoon update: It became a pleasant, sunny day. Quite breezy and a high of 12.3C.
Afternoon update: It became a pleasant, sunny day. Quite breezy and a high of 12.3C.
Confidence Trick: Spanish consumers
Who are the least pessimistic consumers in Europe? There are no prizes for guessing that the Germans are the most optimistic, but there is a prize for guessing that they are followed in the pessimism/optimism stakes by the Spanish.
The Germany-based market research organisation GfK issues regular surveys of consumer confidence across Europe, and its latest report suggests that, though Spanish consumers have certain reservations, they are far less anxious than their counterparts in countries such as Italy, France and the UK.
Set against the background of the economic woes afflicting Spain, the finding is little short of staggering. It may reflect a confidence "bounce" on the back of the Partido Popular's election victory in November, but even this might be questionable, given that the Rajoy government has done nothing to hint that there will be growth and has done everything to set out a plan for austerity with a Merkozy seal of approval.
The Germans have praised the government for the intent it has shown in introducing labour reforms, so in this respect Rajoy might be moving Spain away from the abyss. The latest Greek bail-out (assuming it does happen) also removes a short-term prospect of the markets finding the next candidate to take down, one of which remains Spain. There is some stability, albeit shaky, and it is this perception of stability that the consumers in the GfK survey seem to be responding to.
It is difficult, however, to be optimistic in believing that the more optimistic consumers of Spain are experiencing anything other than a transitory and passing state of euphoria. Either this or they are seriously deluding themselves. Or they, the participants in the survey, represent a particular group of society and one from the wealthier and more industrialised parts of Spain.
The painful truth is that there is an awful lot more pain to be endured, and for the foreseeable future. The survey participants are realistic enough to express the reservation that they don't anticipate a return to something like growth for a further three years, but there are plenty of commentators and analysts who would question whether even this is likely.
The government's priority of deficit reduction, together with a lack of finance either from governmental sources or the banking sector, creates a double whammy of economic stasis. The only good news is that if there genuinely is as much optimism among Spain's consumers as the GfK survey suggests, then this could drive some growth. Otherwise, Spain would have to look to exports as a means of economic take-off (which includes tourism).
Denied the conventional tool of increasing competitiveness through currency devaluation, the other option to assist exports is to opt for an internal devaluation, which means a reduction in labour costs. Force this policy and all hell could break out, and an export-driven recovery wouldn't necessarily work anyway; there are, after all, many other European countries with considerably lower levels of confidence than Spain is meant to have.
An internal devaluation would be in line with arguments that Spain's labour costs are simply too high, but there would doubtless be many an employee, who might actually be grateful to be an employee, who would argue otherwise. If an export-led recovery failed, where would that leave the country? Without any domestic consumption to initiate growth because everyone has had their wages cut or is on the dole.
The government's labour reforms do actually offer the possibility of internal devaluation, as companies would be enabled to reduce salaries during periods of downturn. And what is the current situation if not a downturn? It is small wonder that the unions are threatening a general strike.
As far as tourism as an element of economic recovery is concerned, the GfK survey has found that the British are way up the list of those with a tendency to seek savings of whatever sort. And this doesn't represent particularly good news for Mallorcan tourism businesses, already reeling from several years of lower spend. Nor does a previous GfK survey which suggests that the traditional fortnight holiday is itself being cut more and more - to ten or seven days.
While tourism as export will continue to be a means of economic salvation, it will also continue to mean tourism that places the lion's share of its money into hands that aren't necessarily Spanish and that whatever is left over is spent only sparingly and handed over to staff with long faces who have found that their wages have been cut.
Spanish consumers may be more optimistic than those in other countries, but you do have to ask - who are they?
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
The Germany-based market research organisation GfK issues regular surveys of consumer confidence across Europe, and its latest report suggests that, though Spanish consumers have certain reservations, they are far less anxious than their counterparts in countries such as Italy, France and the UK.
Set against the background of the economic woes afflicting Spain, the finding is little short of staggering. It may reflect a confidence "bounce" on the back of the Partido Popular's election victory in November, but even this might be questionable, given that the Rajoy government has done nothing to hint that there will be growth and has done everything to set out a plan for austerity with a Merkozy seal of approval.
The Germans have praised the government for the intent it has shown in introducing labour reforms, so in this respect Rajoy might be moving Spain away from the abyss. The latest Greek bail-out (assuming it does happen) also removes a short-term prospect of the markets finding the next candidate to take down, one of which remains Spain. There is some stability, albeit shaky, and it is this perception of stability that the consumers in the GfK survey seem to be responding to.
It is difficult, however, to be optimistic in believing that the more optimistic consumers of Spain are experiencing anything other than a transitory and passing state of euphoria. Either this or they are seriously deluding themselves. Or they, the participants in the survey, represent a particular group of society and one from the wealthier and more industrialised parts of Spain.
The painful truth is that there is an awful lot more pain to be endured, and for the foreseeable future. The survey participants are realistic enough to express the reservation that they don't anticipate a return to something like growth for a further three years, but there are plenty of commentators and analysts who would question whether even this is likely.
The government's priority of deficit reduction, together with a lack of finance either from governmental sources or the banking sector, creates a double whammy of economic stasis. The only good news is that if there genuinely is as much optimism among Spain's consumers as the GfK survey suggests, then this could drive some growth. Otherwise, Spain would have to look to exports as a means of economic take-off (which includes tourism).
Denied the conventional tool of increasing competitiveness through currency devaluation, the other option to assist exports is to opt for an internal devaluation, which means a reduction in labour costs. Force this policy and all hell could break out, and an export-driven recovery wouldn't necessarily work anyway; there are, after all, many other European countries with considerably lower levels of confidence than Spain is meant to have.
An internal devaluation would be in line with arguments that Spain's labour costs are simply too high, but there would doubtless be many an employee, who might actually be grateful to be an employee, who would argue otherwise. If an export-led recovery failed, where would that leave the country? Without any domestic consumption to initiate growth because everyone has had their wages cut or is on the dole.
The government's labour reforms do actually offer the possibility of internal devaluation, as companies would be enabled to reduce salaries during periods of downturn. And what is the current situation if not a downturn? It is small wonder that the unions are threatening a general strike.
As far as tourism as an element of economic recovery is concerned, the GfK survey has found that the British are way up the list of those with a tendency to seek savings of whatever sort. And this doesn't represent particularly good news for Mallorcan tourism businesses, already reeling from several years of lower spend. Nor does a previous GfK survey which suggests that the traditional fortnight holiday is itself being cut more and more - to ten or seven days.
While tourism as export will continue to be a means of economic salvation, it will also continue to mean tourism that places the lion's share of its money into hands that aren't necessarily Spanish and that whatever is left over is spent only sparingly and handed over to staff with long faces who have found that their wages have been cut.
Spanish consumers may be more optimistic than those in other countries, but you do have to ask - who are they?
Any comments to andrew@thealcudiaguide.com please.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
MALLORCA TODAY - Mallorca hospitals in crisis
Staff from the emergencies department at Son Espases hospital will protest tomorrow (15 February) against the situation that exists in the department. The protest, due to only last five minutes, is planned to draw attention to cuts that, say the medical staff, have led to overcrowding, too few beds and too few nurses. Meanwhile, the college of doctors in the Balearics has said that the health system is in a critical state, and it has been confirmed that, following the resignation two weeks ago of the director of emergencies at Manacor hospital, in protest at cuts to personnel, the director at Son Espases has also resigned, along with two chief nursing supervisors. The Balearic Government's health minister has said that the resignation of the Son Espases director is for personal reasons and President Bauzá has stated his satisfaction with the health service being provided in the Balearics.
MALLORCA TODAY - Delgado backs down on tourism law
Pressure from town halls has led to tourism minister Carlos Delgado accepting a modification to the proposed new tourism law for the Balearics which will give the town halls the final say in respect of changes of use of hotel accommodation. There are also to be a series of controls related to the quality of service in all-inclusive hotels, though what these are, over and above preventing the taking of food and drink out of hotels (as already contained in the draft legislation), is not clear.
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